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  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Vexeer View Post
    As promised, i have risen from the dead with new info ( fights with no adds involved)

    On 18 fights in HoF last night ( 11 Zor'Lok + 7 Ta'yak), from a total of 5143 casts i missed 58 => (58/5143)*100 = 1,1277% = roughly 1.13% misses. Considering i was still at 11.83% hit for these tries ( got the VP bracers after this raid which took me to 12.63% hit), 15-11.83 = 3.17% chance to miss. Considering 3.17% miss chance VS 1.13% actual misses in a raid, the extra 2.04% of hit i could've gotten was put into mastery for more deeps.
    What in the world do you think you're accomplishing by sharing this "info"? Even if your numbers are correct, which seems statistically unlikely, all it shows is you got lucky. The game doesn't lie when it says what your chance to miss is.

    Though I'd say it's more likely that you're misreporting your hit chance or miscounting your number of misses and/or number of casts.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gobuchul View Post
    What in the world do you think you're accomplishing by sharing this "info"? Even if your numbers are correct, which seems statistically unlikely, all it shows is you got lucky. The game doesn't lie when it says what your chance to miss is.

    Though I'd say it's more likely that you're misreporting your hit chance or miscounting your number of misses and/or number of casts.
    Simply contributing with relevant info in fights with no adds, per request of an earlier post.

    And yes, simply because the numbers seem "statistically unlikely", you are free to do the math yourself, since i can post links now:

    http://worldoflogs.com/reports/duxpy...50/?enc=bosses => dmg by spell : nr of misses only = 51 , nr of hits = 5085, total casts 5136 => (51/5136)*100 = 0.9929% = 0.99% misses OR, you if want to be more catholic than the Pope, add absorbed & deflected casts to the nr of misses, which takes it to 58 total, hit 5085, total casts 5143 => (58/5143)*100= 1.1277% = roughly 1.13% misses ( oh look, the same number like in the prev. post)

    Now that i have actually provided empyrical proof that i don't make numbers up by looking at the wall, feel free to armory me & check the hit ratio ( obv. changed from 11.83% to 12.61%, not 12.63% as stated in the prev. post), of which i won't provide a link, assuming you're not a tool with the IQ of a banana, you'll know how to check the armory.

    Goodluck on adding up the numbers and coming to the same conclusion, and thanks for being that subtle into calling me an idiot that can't add the numbers up, you will obviously get different results from doing the same math that i did and put me on the wall of shame for mistaking math signs, which you can safely blame on the start of a new calendaristic month, the invasion of furry yet deadly rabbits, or whatever gives you that special warm feeling inside of you.
    Last edited by Vexeer; 2012-11-01 at 09:51 AM.

  3. #43
    As you look into your logs, MG has some misses, but not a single cast is shown. I assume that this are the Agony, UA and Corr hits (not ticks).

    With each MG tick 3 hits are generated, that cannot miss, because the chance to miss was calculated when MG was cast. Therefore your statistics are simply biased and this leads to the false conclusion of hit being not that worth.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killem View Post
    As you look into your logs, MG has some misses, but not a single cast is shown. I assume that this are the Agony, UA and Corr hits (not ticks).

    With each MG tick 3 hits are generated, that cannot miss, because the chance to miss was calculated when MG was cast. Therefore your statistics are simply biased and this leads to the false conclusion of hit being not that worth.
    Seeing how the nr of misses is shown ( 21), then you get the % of the total casts ( 1.6%), you can calculate the total nr of MGs cast, this being 21*100% / 1.6% = 333.25 max casts. Assuming rounding up + the fact that, obviously, i didn't take every cast to its full duration ( stopping to refresh any dot or cast haunt), assuming a 10% error margin and taking this number down to 300 full casts, by adding 300 to the total nr. of casts ( 5136), you'd get 5436 as a total nr of casts, which, by dividing the prev. misses ( 51 & 58) to it, you'd get 0.9381% and 1.0669% misses in total.
    If this is, again, flawed in any way, feel free to correct it with plausible evidence, and thanks for pointing out the total nr. of MG casts is not shown, didn't even think to consider it.

  5. #45
    Your number of total spells casts is absolutely not true, as I explained above, but let me get into the details of how MG works:

    • MG is a canneling spell with 4 Ticks, triggering a small potion of damage with each tick, as well as 50% worth of a tick of each of your active dots.
    • The chance to miss is rolled out in the moment you cast the spell. Otherwise MG could break in the middle of channeling which only happens, when you run out of mana.
    • The number of of MG ticks (normal + crit) is exactly the number of Agony, UA and corr hits and crits, assuming no Drain Soul is used and dots are applied perfectly, meaning all 3 dots are active, when Mg is channeled for the whole channeling time. Due to human error this ratio can varry downwards or the number of the dot hits and crits can be higher, if Drain Soul comes into play.

    Now let me take a look at your "total spells cast":
    You say those are 5085 hits and 51 misses, leading to 5136 total spells cast. At this Point is your first fail, you ignored critical hits completely. With a total of 619 crits this would lead to 5755 "spells cast". This would only flatten the misses and your thesis would even be more validated that miss is not that worse.

    Now take a look at the MG misses, which are 21 and have a miss chance of 1.6% in your log.
    Code:
    [# miss] /[# total casts] = [percent to miss]
    Now you get 21 / 1.6% = 1312.5 This number is flawed by a heavy rounding error, but it gets close to the number of MG ticks and tick crits.
    At this point you should already be questioning yourself: Are you recasting MG for each tick. I assume no, it would collide with the GCD. Therefore the percentage to miss MG is too low.

    The same problem shows up, when you take the Dot ticks into account, therefore I am excluding those too.

    Furthermore the number of Agony, UA and Corr hits and crits are just a little bit lower than the number of MG ticks (normal and crit) and the amount of DS ticks is negletable with less than 10.
    Subtracting the numer of those hits and crits (4528) from the number of "spells cast" (5755) leads to 5755 - 4528 = 1227 spells cast excluding MG and DS.
    In addition Touch of the Grave (ud racial) cannot miss, because it is coupled with succsesful hits, leading to 1227-181=1046 spellcasts which we can use for the further conclusions, without the need to make any simplifications or assuming.

    This leads to 58-41=17 misses excluding dots and MG. And this leads to 17 / 1046 = 1.63% miss, but you may have been lucky since 1046 is a very little number in statistics. (In additions all those calculations were made under the assumption, you were fighting only bosslvl targets and no targets with lvl 92 or even lower)


    I would like to proceed with the parts I have not explained in detail, but I am limited in time right now, therefore I must delay the observations of your data with dots and MG.

    I hope this post may create some clarity.

  6. #46
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    Indeed, i did not take crits into consideration.

    I just assumed a crit would occur only if a hit took place, hence i considered those 619 crits to be included in the number of total hits, 5085, and not that they would be considered as a separate portion, hence having to be added to the total nr. of hits.

    Your assumption is correct, the logs were provided only for bosslvl targets ( 93 ) and i did not include any add fights, because, obviously, the lower the mob's lvl, the higher the hit chance.

    Your calculations make more sense than what i have provided and, should i be allowed to draw conclusions to them, a 1.63% miss ratio VS what i had geared at that time ( 11.83% = 3.17% under the hit cap) still leads to the fact that the subtraction ( 3.17-1.63= 1.54 %) is better invested in mastery ( as aff) to provide an increase in DPS ( here making a tie to the OP), over putting it into hit.

    Further constructive feedback is appreciated, when you get the chance. Thank you,

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Vexeer View Post
    Your calculations make more sense than what i have provided and, should i be allowed to draw conclusions to them, a 1.63% miss ratio VS what i had geared at that time ( 11.83% = 3.17% under the hit cap) still leads to the fact that the subtraction ( 3.17-1.63= 1.54 %) is better invested in mastery ( as aff) to provide an increase in DPS ( here making a tie to the OP), over putting it into hit.
    Once again, I'm really struggling to grasp what in the world you think you're doing here. Do you honestly think you've caught the game in a lie, that the stated miss chance is not accurately reflected in your spells' actual chance to miss, and that the actual number of misses (on average, over time) wouldn't go down if you geared for more hit?

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gobuchul View Post
    Once again, I'm really struggling to grasp what in the world you think you're doing here. Do you honestly think you've caught the game in a lie, that the stated miss chance is not accurately reflected in your spells' actual chance to miss, and that the actual number of misses (on average, over time) wouldn't go down if you geared for more hit?
    Yes, i am perfectly convinced that without any shadow of a doubt i am on the verge of discovering a new and improved formula that will bring about a new era for mankind, ponies, fairytales and that the game is a lie.

    Yes, i am convinced that the actual chance to miss, based on the % you are under the hit cap, is less relevant for affliction versus demo&destro, hence proven with actual numbers ( be it mine or killem's) instead of phantasmagorical "i think"s , "maybe"s and "if"s.

    I never said anything anywhere that the number of misses wouldn't go down if i would gear more hit, the actual discussion is if it's worth going for more hit, sacrificing mastery as it's the 2nd best stat atm for aff, or just investing in mastery and neglecting the hit cap by not very much of a margin, to provide a DPS increase.

    You can now decide which of these i've made up off the top of my head and which are constructive, seeing how you cba to provide a meaningful argument to the thread at hand, i cba taking you seriously. Either do the above-stated in future posts or restrain yourself from posting stuff that isn't relevant to the discussion at hand and go make assumptions somewhere else.

  9. #49
    What the hell? My meaningful argument is this: If your character pane is telling you that your chance to miss is 3.17%, that is the actual rate at which your spells will miss. If you go to a lot of trouble to count up casts and misses and arrive at the conclusion that you only missed 1.63% of the time over the course of a raid, then you either got incredibly lucky during that raid, or you are mistaken in your calculations. It doesn't matter which of those is true - the entire exercise is pointless either way.

    There is nothing magical about affliction spells that cause some of them to be unable to miss or anything like that, which appears to be what you're thinking. Though honestly I can't begin to understand what you actually are thinking, so I'm grasping at straws here.

  10. #50
    all that discussion over 400dps at 80000dps level... that is 0.5%.
    while sometimes boss lives with 0.5%, it happens really rarely. and RNG with things other than hit/crit is much more important in any fight.

    fact 1: mastery is slightly stronger than hit
    fact 2: going hit>mastery is just as strong, unless its heavy add fight.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by evralia View Post
    This is false. Your dps will simulate SLIGHTLY higher without hit cap, but in practice it would barely increase at all and will vary considerably.
    How much is that extra mastery or whatever you have instead of hit when you miss casts on a boss. Remember when you miss a spell you have to recast it, and thats if you notice right away which is impossible (at least for me) since I'm already spamming my next spell. Not having hit cap is a dps loss against boss lvl mobs.

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by purefury View Post
    all that discussion over 400dps at 80000dps level... that is 0.5%.
    while sometimes boss lives with 0.5%, it happens really rarely. and RNG with things other than hit/crit is much more important in any fight.

    fact 1: mastery is slightly stronger than hit
    fact 2: going hit>mastery is just as strong, unless its heavy add fight.
    Actually it's more:

    fact 1: mastery is slightly stronger than hit
    opinion 2: going hit>mastery is just as strong, unless its heavy add fight.


    Going hit>mastery is better for you if, as a player, you are bad at reacting to misses. If you're good at catching and reacting to misses effectively, then you can gain damage by going mastery>hit.

    ---------- Post added 2012-11-01 at 12:55 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by lockedout View Post
    How much is that extra mastery or whatever you have instead of hit when you miss casts on a boss. Remember when you miss a spell you have to recast it, and thats if you notice right away which is impossible (at least for me) since I'm already spamming my next spell. Not having hit cap is a dps loss against boss lvl mobs.
    Incorrect.

    You have at a minimum (UA) 7 seconds to react to a missed DoT. You have up to around 13 with Agony. You can spam MG on GCD during haunt and if you miss the first refresh you have another chance to get the second. (You'd be casting MG anyway after haunt so if it misses it's a moot point). The only thing that semi-sucks is missing an actual haunt, however the gain in stats from not getting to hit cap can be worth way more damage than that missed haunt lost you over the course of a fight.

  13. #53
    if say ya are to actualy go with a bit under hit chance are their a certain % below to be worth it in the stats you get back?

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Mortaz View Post
    if say ya are to actualy go with a bit under hit chance are their a certain % below to be worth it in the stats you get back?
    Considering the # of add fights this tier, the suggestion of sitting at 12% hit if you are Affliction is probably a good place to start. The weakness of Hit means you can drop any amount you'd like for an increase, provided that you think you can handle misses that well.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by Miothan View Post
    Hey all.

    Was wondering if anyone knows the DPS loss/gain of being hit capped vs. not being hit capped.

    I myself run with 15% hit exactly, since im usually lazy and the idea of having to refresh my dots more than usuall didnt seem so pleasing to me, but now im thinking that i might aswell give it a go if it is enough of a DPS gain.

    So, what is the dps gain to be capped vs. not being capped in Mogu'shan? Including Heroic modes if there is a difference.

    The one fight where i feel that i might not want to go with the "not hit capped" is Will of the Emperor, due to all of the SB:SS'ing on adds (tho on Heroic mode im guesing that wont be as much of a problem)
    It's pretty simple really. You can cast a million times lacing 1% to hit, and not miss - it's RNG. In a case where you can miss, and dont, you're DPS will be higher. However, missing one crucial spell (there's one for every class pretty much) can seriously screw with your rotation, burst damage, and just ease of play. Capping hit makes your job predictable. If for some reason your delegated to add duty or non "skull" level monsters, you could in theory get away with lower hit.

    The reason hit may not be weighted higher is for the reasons I mentioned above. Some classes are hurt much less by a miss by any of there spells than other classes. If you choose to stack a stat that is weighted higher than hit, be prepared to explain to your guildies why your dps is unpredictable.

    I just realized this was in the warlock forum, which I cant truly comment on. Just remember that other stats can be better than hit - the thing that matters is spells than cannot be recast immediately or ramp up times with spells such as Haunt -being reliant on other dots. If you realize where the major dps loses can happen from missing, you can compensate and deal with it being prepared to recast if necessary.

    Other than a) spells with a recast or b) ramp-ups, even missing on "skulls" can result in higher level dps, as someone else pointed out already.
    Last edited by Psilar; 2012-11-01 at 08:46 PM.

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by lockedout View Post
    Remember when you miss a spell you have to recast it, and thats if you notice right away which is impossible (at least for me) since I'm already spamming my next spell. Not having hit cap is a dps loss against boss lvl mobs.
    I beg to differ, unless you're reapplying dots when they're about to fall off, which is only really beneficial when the last application was done with large buffs, you have PLENTY of buffer time to react, if you're not casting dots early that's because you're playing wrong when below hitcap.

    The only time being below the hitcap is ever a problem is the once in a blue moon that you miss a haunt.

    I've been playing with 11-14% hit (from start of MV to where I am in hit now via gear upgrades), it's purely anecdotal evidence, but I've never had a problem keeping things applied, nor do I feel like I'm missing haunts regularly enough for it to be an issue. I'll hit the hit cap as soon as I get 1-2 more pieces of gear probably.

  17. #57
    Something that it doesn't seem like anyone is taking in to consideration is that in a simulation, if it misses something, say a dot, it will cast it again instantly. In real life, there will be a delay between missing and processing that you have to cast it again. So in practice a non hit capped build will be lower, even if they play perfectly, than a simulation says it will be. How much lower depends on the players reaction time, but there is no way it will match the sim.

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Namana View Post
    Something that it doesn't seem like anyone is taking in to consideration is that in a simulation, if it misses something, say a dot, it will cast it again instantly. In real life, there will be a delay between missing and processing that you have to cast it again. So in practice a non hit capped build will be lower, even if they play perfectly, than a simulation says it will be. How much lower depends on the players reaction time, but there is no way it will match the sim.
    The sim accounts for reaction time.

  19. #59
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    people worrying about reaction time arent looking at the fact that reaction time has nothing to do with shard based spells. perfect example...mid fight...no shards. Then you get a shard up from a nightfall proc. You fire off a haunt and it misses, gratz, you just tanked your dps because haunt is (HUGE). Now you simply cant recast a haunt because you have no shards and have to wait for the next all too familiar RNG nightfall proc.

  20. #60
    I wouldn't call one missed haunt tanking your dps. You'll lose 8 seconds worth of 25% extra damage, which while significant for those 8 seconds, shouldn't be the deciding factor in if you did decent dps over the handful of minutes the fight is taking - and even then, the amount of haunts you cast with a low % miss chance, it's not even that likely one will miss. Yes, RNG will sometimes screw you, but you're just as likely to be screwed by random boss mechanics or sloppy play, if not more so.

    I'm not going to argue that missing the hit cap in favor of mastery / haste is a huge dps increase, but it's not going to be a huge dps loss either, presuming you're missing 1-2% or so and not something ridiculous like 10%.

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