US Presidential Election - predict the outcome

[igame]

Just a simple 'predict the outcome' poll.

I reckon the race will be so tight that the judiciary will have to step in to decide who gets the white house.

However sometimes I try to imagine a Romney win. I don't want him to win but it's fun to imagine a world where they sacrifice gay folks to placate storms and organise book burnings for any book that mentions evolution and punish abortion attempts with jail/executions and FEMA is a private organisation that only looks after wealthy neighbourhoods....

Sometimes I also wonder if an Obama win would mean him making the big banks untouchable and unaccountable again and handling of economy where in a recession the rich still come out richer and poor folks still don't have jobs but he'd keep banging on about how he's all about the middle class for four more years.

So, predict the outcome, we have one week to get out predictions in.

[Waaldo]

I'm not sure who will win because a lot of people vote for illogical reasons. But I pray, for the sake of the country, that Obama wins.

[courtjester311]

I fear that no matter who wins, no one will do anything to get our house in order. If Obama wins, it will be more of the same while running up the debt (ceilings be damned). If Romney wins, I truly fear that they will cut programs that don't need cutting but reform and bolster programs that need cutting AND reform. There will be an effort to "push" the debt/fiscal crisis 6 months down the road for the next session of congress. Worst case, efforts to address the issue will fail, the austerity measures that take effect on Jan 1 will kick in and both sides of the aisle will blame the other.

Plainly put, if I ran my household the way the government currently runs the country, my debtors would have frozen my credit cards, garnished my wages, and my mortgage holder/tax collector would be evicting me next week to fend for myself.

EDIT: Oops, forgot to answer OP. I think Romney has a shot because others in my middle-aged group realize the same thing. Obama has a spending track record and they HOPE that Romney is different. Either way, it's gonna be painful.

[obdigore]

I fear that no matter who wins, no one will do anything to get our house in order. If Obama wins, it will be more of the same while running up the debt (ceilings be damned). If Romney wins, I truly fear that they will cut programs that don't need cutting but reform and bolster programs that need cutting AND reform. There will be an effort to "push" the debt/fiscal crisis 6 months down the road for the next session of congress. Worst case, efforts to address the issue will fail, the austerity measures that take effect on Jan 1 will kick in and both sides of the aisle will blame the other.

Plainly put, if I ran my household the way the government currently runs the country, my debtors would have frozen my credit cards, garnished my wages, and my mortgage holder/tax collector would be evicting me next week to fend for myself.

The countries economy isn't a household budget and that comparison makes me want to shake babies.

[semaphore]

Plainly put, if I ran my household the way the government currently runs the country, my debtors would have frozen my credit cards, garnished my wages, and my mortgage holder/tax collector would be evicting me next week to fend for myself.

Plainly put, a household is a not a country.

[Strakha]

Ill just call out percentages. 52-48 for Obama

[courtjester311]

The countries economy isn't a household budget and that comparison makes me want to shake babies.

How is it different then? In your household you buy things on credit, yes? You take out a loan to buy your home, your car. You use a credit card to buy everyday things, and I pray that you are responsible enough to pay it off every month. The point that we are at now is there is a third mortgage on the house, we've been paying interest on the car and the bank is getting po'ed, and the last 10 credit cards have stopped working because they are maxed out. All the while we are hoping that we can get our credit line increased!?

[Willeonge]

Obama, ~280 electoral votes.

Republicans maintain majority in the House.

Democrats maintain majority in the Senate.

[igame]

Ill just call out percentages. 52-48 for Obama

which is again within the 4 point margin of error so statistically it's no clear winner?

[Kivimetsan]

Ill just call out percentages. 52-48 for Obama

Zzz this whole idea that there are only two candidates is completely ludicrous. Picking the lesser of two evils sucks and I don't understand why people keep falling for the two party duopoly. There are third party candidates that talk about real issues, instead of the typical Obama vs. Romney issues which involve "ill outspend you" or "ill bomb more countries than you".

Id rather neither of them, but its pretty obvious it will be extremely close. If I had money on it id say Obama will win, but he will still be a terrible choice for the next 4 years.

List of terrible things he has done:
NDAA
Drone War expansion
Destruction of civil liberties
Marijuana dispensary raids, even when he said he would leave it to the states.
Etc etc...

The two are pathological liars, there only goal is to be written down in the history books. They don't care about you, they only care about there agenda. Once people stop falling for this political game bullshit we will be much better off.

[semaphore]

How is it different then?

1) The government has the ability to raise revenues on demand. You don't.
2) The government has the power to print money. You don't.
3) The government has much better credit worthiness than you.
4) The government can take out loans more cheaply than you.

[Gmollster11]

It saddens me to see so many un-informed people think Obama has literally anything positive to offer.

What's Best for the country isn't good for gays, lesbians and minorities. They are ....the minority, but they are very vocal.
Those relying on social programs don't contribute to the greater welfare of the country, yet it's unpleasant to blatantly call it like it is.

Consider a football team: do the best players make the most? Do the stars get the best deals? Should the groundskeepers get to ride on the team jet?

Romney understands that you take care of the MVPs as they are what fills the stands, allows the owners to fill luxury boxes, etc. Obama wants the pro-bowlers to take a pay cut so the concession stand workers get better benefits.

It's not rocket science.

[Deleted]

I'd say Obama.

Then again im in England so all i have to go on is world news and the internet to get a feeling of peoples opinions.

Romney is a better challenger than Mccain.

[webzagar]

Romney is either in a statistical tie or a 3 to 5 point lead in all battle ground state polls (Huge advantage for Romney). Factor in this hurricane and its effect on likely voter turnout in New York and New Jersey which is Obama's base especially in Urban areas, you are looking at Rural New York and New Jersey potentially carrying the states. This disaster will definitely impact voter turnouts in the most liberal parts of New England.

When the dust settles in 8 days, Romney will be elected, and the House and Senate will have a Republican Majority. Romney will have over 300 electoral votes.

[Waaldo]

It saddens me to see so many un-informed people think Obama has literally anything positive to offer.

What's Best for the country isn't good for gays, lesbians and minorities. They are ....the minority, but they are very vocal.
Those relying on social programs don't contribute to the greater welfare of the country, yet it's unpleasant to blatantly call it like it is.

Consider a football team: do the best players make the most? Do the stars get the best deals? Should the groundskeepers get to ride on the team jet?

Romney understands that you take care of the MVPs as they are what fills the stands, allows the owners to fill luxury boxes, etc. Obama wants the pro-bowlers to take a pay cut so the concession stand workers get better benefits.

It's not rocket science.

No it's not rocket science, it's Darwinism.

those concession workers help sell items at those game, which cause the companies that make those items to hire more workers for manufacturing to keep up with the demand, those workers then have the money to go to grocery stores. Those grocery stores then have the money and need to hire more cashiers and people to stock the shelves. Now all of these people have enough money to pay their bills on time giving money and need to electric companies, credit card companies, cable companies, etc. Then all of those people start hiring more workers. I think you get the point. Then all of these people, the middle and lower class, pay money to go to the football games which is what makes these MVPs so rich.

These MVPs, along with Romney himself, make more money every year than the majority of people make in their entire lifetime.

Yes gays and lesbians are a minority but there are a lot of them, and if you add them with other minorities it ends up being a pretty big chuck of the US population. 37% of the US population are Minorities

[Deleted]

List of terrible things he has done:
NDAA
Drone War expansion
Destruction of civil liberties
Marijuana dispensary raids, even when he said he would leave it to the states.
Etc etc...

I really wonder how much of that is really his responsibility. Doesn't the senate have power as well?
I'm pretty sure the democrats and republicans need to compromise all the time which leads to half-assed/idiotic decisions.

Anyway, I'm predicting Obama will have a relatively easy win.

[anveena]

I see Romney winning. I hope I'm wrong though.

[Willeonge]

I see Romney winning. I hope I'm wrong though.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I trust this guy, he was within 4 electoral votes in 2008 and successfully predicted the major Republican takeover of the House in 2010.

[pinkink]

I'm pulling for Romney but my gut keeps saying Obama will win. We shall see.

[muto]

I would rather have Obama out of the two, but I have a feeling Romney will win. Hell, Bush Jr. won 2 terms.