I'm more and more concerned with each passing parse that Frost isn't scaling well enough. Echoes of Dragon Soul all over again. Frost really was viable in Tier 12, but then scaling killed it in Tier 13.
I don't think this is necessarily a frost vs. fire thread, more of a frost vs. frost thread.
I don't claim to be the best player in the world, but probably top 1%. I'm pushing the limits of frost as best I can in every fight right now (much to my guild's chagrin), and I'm finding on every fight I would be better off fire. This is concerning me. In the first week of Mogu'shan when people were wearing a lot of blues, my frost numbers were exceeding most fire mages on World of Logs.
So let's look at aggregate numbers over time (data from World of Logs):
All DPS numbers are median DPS scores from all players of the spec listed submitted to WoL.
Stone Guard 25H
October 25th: Frost DPS @ 127198.5 / Fire DPS @ 186551
November 4th: Frost DPS @ 149517 / Fire DPS @ 218040.5
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 144261 / Fire DPS @ 238016.5
The difference between Frost & Fire at the start was 59352.5, progressed to 68523.5, and most recently the gap has widened to 93755.5 dps difference between the two. Frost is beginning to look less viable and more like Dragon Soul numbers, but this extreme gap is likely due to DoT spreading.
Feng the Accursed 25H
October 25th: Frost DPS @ 77436 / Fire DPS @ 88450
November 4th: Frost DPS @ 77365 / Fire DPS @ 93675.5
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 80662 / Fire DPS @ 103494
Difference for this single-target (mostly, small adds are up briefly in one of the phases), starts at just a 11014 DPS difference on October 25th, progresses to a 16310.5 gap, and now more recently is at a 22832 DPS gap, with a major advantage to fire, on a completely different style of fight. Fire mechanics allow for DPS uptime to remain higher during epicenters, but overall despite what simcraft once said, there is no evidence to suggest frost dominance in single target.
And it's getting worse. Bugs don't like fire:
Imperial Vizier Zor'lok 25N
November 5th: Frost DPS @ 58450 / Fire DPS @ 80305
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 66383.5 / Fire DPS @ 88217
Gap goes from 21855 on the first week, and decreases to 21833.5. This fight remains consistent, though a 22k dps gap between specs is rather high, no? Remember, this is a median. Unless there are tons of really horrid frost mages dragging the rest of us down, that's quite a gap. To investigate this fight further I'll use my own numbers:
I'm able to push out World #29: 67326 dps. That's a bit higher than the median. Modoshi is the curve killer, he managed to do 96096 dps, score one for frost! However, our hard work isn't paying off, top fire DPS is Cimsta @ 106597, over 10k higher than the best frost mage. Thing is, Modoshi's DPS, if it were placed on the fire mage chart, would be down at #13. Not bad you say? Well, Modoshi is a one-off. Next highest frost mage is Eliron at 83231, still a lot higher than my own parse of 67326. If Eliron and I were on the fire chart, he would be #90, and I would be cutting myself at #221, I've never been that low. So there are many more fire mages able to consistently be much higher than the top fire mages.
November 5th: Frost DPS @ 71974 / Fire DPS @ 108095
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 70367 / Fire DPS @ 123880
Gap went from 36121, fire > frost all the way up to 53513. An 18k dps increase over one week across all median DPS! Fire is pulling ahead at an incredible rate.
One more, then I have to get back to work:
Amber-Shaper Un'sok 25N
November 5th: Frost DPS @ 119384 / Fire DPS @ 160991
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 133332 / Fire DPS @ 194731.5
Gap went from 41607, fire > frost all the way up to 61399.5.
In conclusion, for now, I think that these numbers are astounding. This gap is unbelievable. I do not think frost is too low because when I compare myself to other DPS classes, I feel pretty good. Then when I analyze my numbers versus fire-- I just feel like as time goes on it's going to be moving further and further back into Dragon Soul misery, where if you're not throwing fireballs, reroll.
I'm really pushing to be the frost mage this tier, the one that proves it is possible. But from the looks of it, I'm really afraid as I get into Heroic 25M HoF & Terrace, frost is going to fall apart entirely. I really would like it if this data can be commented on by blues, or that the MMO/WoW community can add more information to it. The pressure is really building. Mage will soon just be one spec.