If simcraft is giving you a number that is as low as 15 dps, it is statistically insignificant. You can run the same toon through a sim over and over and your chances of getting the number you got when you first simmed is nearly 0. It is a margin of error.

As far as spreadsheets saying why 4717 is better:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...ZmFYa0E#gid=12
As far as stat weights go, 500 dps really isn't much in the long run. Let me put that into a bit more perspective for you:

In a 5 minute fight that equates to be 150,000 damage (500dps*300sec).

In your current gear you will pull on average about 89.7k DPS, which over 5 minutes is 26.7 million damage (89,700dps*300sec).

150,000 damage (or 500 DPS) accounts for 0.006% (yes that number is right, I even rounded up, then checked on google) of your total damage done (150,000dps/26,700,000 damage done).

I mean it would be great if we could run the numbers and get the same thing every time, but with the amount of RNG that goes into calculating affliction dot damage, this just isn't possible.