# Thread: Is the roll systeam really, _really_ random?

1. ## Is the roll systeam really, _really_ random?

I have lost all belief it is.

I have, and I promise this is true, lost my last ATLEAST 50 rolls, maybe up to a 100 (most of them like only me or 1-2 other rolling) Can't remember when I last rolled over 30. If I'm on teamspeak the others often goes silent while rolling only to lol when my rolls come as they have learned over time that I NEVER wins a roll.

Is there a glitch in the seed for RNG? I wonder how big the odds are if it's pure random.

2. I bet it is not a true random, but a good one though.

There are two principal methods used to generate random numbers. One measures some physical phenomenon that is expected to be random and then compensates for possible biases in the measurement process. The other uses computational algorithms that can produce long sequences of apparently random results, which are in fact completely determined by a shorter initial value, known as a seed or key. The latter type are often called pseudorandom number generators.
A "random number generator" based solely on deterministic computation cannot be regarded as a "true" random number generator, since its output is inherently predictable. How to distinguish a "true" random number from the output of a pseudo-random number generator is a very difficult problem. However, carefully chosen pseudo-random number generators can be used instead of true random numbers in many applications. Rigorous statistical analysis of the output is often needed to have confidence in the algorithm.

It is very hard to obtain true random numbers. Therefore, it is possible, if they don't use it, there is a glitch, but it would have been for everyone and not affect you alone.
The glitch would not be noticed since everyone has it.

3. Your odds of rolling a succession of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 all the way up to 100 are, in a truly random roll system, just as large as rolling 3,4,9,82,12,55 with all numbers distributed from there. Frankly, truly random includes every single sequence possible with the set given.

However, /roll is pseudorandom but it comes pretty close. I played wow almost 4 years straight and won a handful of rolls in that time. Thankfully, that handful included the sartharion 25 3 drakes mount.

Rule about randomness: someone's gotta have a sequence that sucks worse than yours somewhere. Keep going long enough and you'll get normalized results that "flatten" the curve to give all results the same probability / actual occurrence.

4. Originally Posted by Cryonic
I have lost all belief it is.

I have, and I promise this is true, lost my last ATLEAST 50 rolls, maybe up to a 100 (most of them like only me or 1-2 other rolling) Can't remember when I last rolled over 30. If I'm on teamspeak the others often goes silent while rolling only to lol when my rolls come as they have learned over time that I NEVER wins a roll.

Is there a glitch in the seed for RNG? I wonder how big the odds are if it's pure random.
Well, my rolls are mostly balanced (and are very high when needed: Ragnaros nhc mount-drop + Deathwing hc mount) but I want to tell you that our pally tank always loses to my rolls, no matter how low my rolls are.

Examples:
Zor'lok legguards: he: 17, me: 18 (lol)
Blade Lord shoulders: me: 35 (saying in teamspeak "come on now, get it!"), he: 7
Don't remember the MSV-rolls anymore, but he also lost to the Guardians' belt & Feng's wrists.
Then I willingly gave him the chest from the endboss because all of that xD

Oh, and last but not least: the random drop 496 wrists in Heart of Fear in the first ID.. He didn't put up a good fight in rolling, again ^^

I know this may be useless for you, but perhaps it's comforting you that you're not the only one who is apparently only losing.
As for my Offtank-Pallyfriend, we're both amused about his low rolls but he's far away from being pissed about it and always takes it with a laugh.
And time to time I pass an item to him, like the Emperor's chest. It's a good thing our gear is almost equal anyway.

If you really lose every roll and the other guys run around with 485+ while you have around 475, I'd say its time to do something against that. It would be unfair if you're undergeared while everyone else profits.

Disclaimer: English is not my native language, please excuse eventual errors.
Good Luck!

5. My gut feel is that the rolls aren't completely random but not in the sense you mean.

This is more to do with correlations between rolls - eg I might fail to get a skill up 10 times in a row and then get 3 - but I've not tried running actual /roll results through a randomness test.

In general though, as valkanius wrote, whatever the system is it should affect everyone equally so it shouldn't affect you you winning rolls against other players (unless Blizz have a secret vendetta against you!).

6. Probability of losing x rolls in a row, against n other people.

(n/(n+1))^x

In your case n=2 and x=50. Probability=0.00000000157 or 0.000000157%. Too low to be realistic, so you're probably exaggerating a little.

The chance of losing a mount in a 25 man raid 50 times in a row is about 13%. That's assuming a worst case scenario that anyone who has it never shows up again so you'll always be rolling against 24 people.

7. Originally Posted by Cryonic
Is there a glitch in the seed for RNG? I wonder how big the odds are if it's pure random.
very unlikely

the probability of rolling <= 30 is 30/100, the probability of rolling <=30 100 times in a row is (30/100)^100=5.15*10^-53, the probability of rolling <=30 100 times in a row and losing every roll is even lower.

however, this doesn't make me think the RNG is broken - just makes me think that you are lying about your luck.

8. What you describe is entirely possible under the definition of random. That's the point. It's not meant to average out on an individual level, where everyone has a 50/50 chance to either win or lose something.

What WILL happen though, is that it'll average out across the entire playerbase. So while you're incredibly unlucky, there's another person out there who wins every roll, all the time. Then there's a bunch of people between the two extremes.

Sucks, but that's what random is, I'm afraid.

9. I think Blizzard has implemented a special function to make OP's rolls extra low.

10. True randomness doesn't exist in computing.

But what the game uses is close enough to it that you won't notice really.

11. Originally Posted by SilverSnake
True randomness doesn't exist in computing.

But what the game uses is close enough to it that you won't notice really.
Well considering that true randomness may not exist in the universe a computers approximation is pretty good
However randomness means that even after infinite loots you may get no items at all even thought its unlikely !

12. Yes, RNG is RNG.

When you have 10million people chaining the same action, of course you are going to see "rare" or "impossible" bad/good luck.

13. It has taken me 3 years to get the Needy achievement and 2 and a half to get the Greedy.

I always hated rolling for anything because I never in my life ever won shit. I used to love DKP because I was really good on spending dkp smart based on my needs and BiS lists. I'm torn on EPGP because it fails to place a value on how much value YOU place on a specific item.

This expansion we are back to rolls. Shit it's bad. On the brightside, we are plate melee light so it is not sooooooo bad.

Altought I have a warrior friend (he plays tank now) he seems to be sitting in the same spot. Horrible and terrible rolls. Years to get both Needy and Greedy. And neither of us actually play alters.

14. Originally Posted by Proteus
I think Blizzard has implemented a special function to make OP's rolls extra low.

15. The issue is not the generator. People are AWFUL statistical accumulators. You are suffering from confirmation bias.

Sit down and /roll a few hundred times and mark down the results.

You aren't going to be sensitive to the "pseudo-randomness" of the generator until you get on the order of 10^1000 (10 and a thousand 0's) rolls for typical "good" random number generators.

16. Originally Posted by Auloria
The issue is not the generator. People are AWFUL statistical accumulators. You are suffering from confirmation bias.

Sit down and /roll a few hundred times and mark down the results.

You aren't going to be sensitive to the "pseudo-randomness" of the generator until you get on the order of 10^1000 (10 and a thousand 0's) rolls for typical "good" random number generators.
Pretty much this, if there was some sort of "problem" with how they generate random rolls(It's time seeded I believe, same as loot) you wouldn't be able to pick up on it even over 50 expansions.

17. Well, at least you got a chance to roll on something
Sometimes I was in raids where there were not a single usable item for 3 solid weeks.

18. Reminds me of

19. For each unlucky streak somebody's having a lucky streak. That's how randomness and statistics work.

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