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  1. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by Rukentuts View Post
    Pretty sure you missed them then. All but one source was independent.
    Independent sources quoting US generals, the CIA, and a British prime minister? Lol...

  2. #102
    The Unstoppable Force RICH8472's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raybourne View Post
    Uhh.....

    Just as an example to illustrate,
    10 countries out of 20 have nukes, 10/20, = 1/2
    6/20 countries have nukes, 3/10, = 1/3

    So....do you understand now? (Have you ever taken probability or data management or math?) 'X' +1 is greater than 'X', therefore the chance of 'X' is higher than before. Applying it to this situation means the risk of a nuke going off increases. It doesn't stay the same.
    Kind of missed the point there, I am saying we are already ignoring dangerous countries that already have working nukes. Instead we are starting another WMD hunt for a country that doesnt even have a single one yet.

  3. #103
    Quote Originally Posted by Rukentuts View Post
    Uh....no?

    ^ Frank, Downfall, p. 135–7.
    ^ The Final Months of the War With Japan. Part III, note 24 https://www.cia.gov/library/center-f...001.html#rtoc7
    ^ Carroll, James (2007). House of War: The Pentagon and the Disastrous Rise of American Power. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. p. 48. ISBN 0-618-87201-9.
    ^ Skates, John Ray (2000). The Invasion of Japan: Alternative to the Bomb. University of South Carolina Press. p. 79. ISBN 1570033544.

    Yes, clearly those are opinion articles.
    You should watch a movie called "Hoodwinked", there are three sides to every story

  4. #104
    Quote Originally Posted by Purlina View Post
    Iran could claim that they prevented WW3, and saved millions of lives on both sides.

    How so? Iran is the one instigating these affairs by increasing their nuclear capability and threatening others.

    ---------- Post added 2012-11-16 at 08:17 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by RICH1471 View Post
    Kind of missed the point there, I am saying we are already ignoring dangerous countries that already have working nukes. Instead we are starting another WMD hunt for a country that doesnt even have a single one yet.
    Do you know probability?

    50% chance
    60% chance

    which is higher?

    which is more likely to happen?

    if event 'X' is bad, ...... you fill it in.....please.

  5. #105
    Quote Originally Posted by Raybourne View Post
    How so? Iran is the one instigating these affairs by increasing their nuclear capability and threatening others.

    ---------- Post added 2012-11-16 at 08:17 PM ----------



    Do you know probability?

    50% chance
    60% chance

    which is higher?

    which is more likely to happen?

    if event 'X' is bad, ...... you fill it in.....please.
    How many times has there been a "90% chance of rain" and it not rained?
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  6. #106
    Quote Originally Posted by Raybourne View Post
    Uhh.....

    Just as an example to illustrate,
    10 countries out of 20 have nukes, 10/20, = 1/2
    6/20 countries have nukes, 3/10, = 1/3

    So....do you understand now? (Have you ever taken probability or data management or math?) 'X' +1 is greater than 'X', therefore the chance of 'X' is higher than before. Applying it to this situation means the risk of a nuke going off increases. It doesn't stay the same.
    Uh.....no. That's not how it works kiddo...

    You can't make up some painfully simplistic probability equation and expect that to be applicable to real world scenarios.

    Go read up on MAD doctrine, you might learn something.

  7. #107
    The Insane Reeve's Avatar
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    How did this thread become about the morality of dropping the A-Bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima? I went to the bathroom and came back, and good god...
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  8. #108
    Brewmaster insmek's Avatar
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    Israel scares me way more than Iran does.

  9. #109
    Quote Originally Posted by Raybourne View Post
    How so? Iran is the one instigating these affairs by increasing their nuclear capability and threatening others.

    ---------- Post added 2012-11-16 at 08:17 PM ----------



    Do you know probability?

    50% chance
    60% chance

    which is higher?

    which is more likely to happen?

    if event 'X' is bad, ...... you fill it in.....please.
    They claim to use it for medical reasons and the likelyhood that it can get to 90% (wep grade) isnt probable. Im curious why the UN has an opinion in this matter, they arent wmd's, yet iraq was the same thing and bashed on bush. UN is useless and bias.

  10. #110
    Quote Originally Posted by RICH1471 View Post
    I am not in the US military, I hold the rank of Captain in the British Army and I pick up my Majors rank next year.
    while posting 5000 times on this website alone in one year, looks like you'll reach Armchair General first ... fuk me , we're doomed

  11. #111
    Quote Originally Posted by chadwix View Post
    UN is useless and bias.
    You're preaching to the choir.

  12. #112
    Quote Originally Posted by nailbomb View Post
    while posting 5000 times on this website alone in one year, looks like you'll reach Armchair General first ... fuk me , we're doomed
    At least he is in the military...
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  13. #113
    Quote Originally Posted by Rukentuts View Post
    Protip: The amount of purple hearts we made just for the Invasion of Japan was used through the Gulf War. And that was just US casualties.

    It's pretty much common sense that the Japanese would attempt to stave off an invasion in one of the bloodiest battles mankind has ever seen. It would have made Gettysburg look like a dinner party.
    That excuse is old , everyone knows that Japan was already on the verge of surrender, invading Japan would not have been needed and all the people in power were damn well aware of that.
    "It always appeared to us that, atomic bomb or no atomic bomb, the Japanese were already on the verge of collapse." - General Henry H. Arnold
    "Japan was at the moment seeking some way to surrender with minimum loss of 'face'. It wasn't necessary to hit them with that awful thing." - General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "P.M. [Churchill} & I ate alone. Discussed Manhattan (it is a success). Decided to tell Stalin about it. Stalin had told P.M. of telegram from Jap Emperor asking for peace." - President Harry S. Truman
    The US wanted to use that bomb in the field , show their new toy off to the soviets and so they used it.

  14. #114
    The Unstoppable Force RICH8472's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nailbomb View Post
    while posting 5000 times on this website alone in one year, looks like you'll reach Armchair General first ... fuk me , we're doomed
    Actually think officers do any real work when not deployed? Garrison duties are boring as hell and leave a lot of free time.

  15. #115
    Quote Originally Posted by SuperMechatronGamer View Post
    Uh.....no. That's not how it works kiddo...

    You can't make up some painfully simplistic probability equation and expect that to be applicable to real world scenarios.

    Go read up on MAD doctrine, you might learn something.
    Go look up.....math? You might learn that one more country having a nuke isn't the same as before. How daft can one be to not understand this?

  16. #116
    Herald of the Titans Beavis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raybourne View Post
    Uhh.....

    Just as an example to illustrate,
    10 countries out of 20 have nukes, 10/20, = 1/2
    6/20 countries have nukes, 3/10, = 1/3

    So....do you understand now? (Have you ever taken probability or data management or math?) 'X' +1 is greater than 'X', therefore the chance of 'X' is higher than before. Applying it to this situation means the risk of a nuke going off increases. It doesn't stay the same.
    Most modern deterrence models only have two stable equalibria: X=0 and X=N. So, there's really no reason to think X+1 is going have a significant impact on the stability of the system.
    When survival is the goal, it's into the spider hole!

  17. #117
    Mechagnome Sealed Shut's Avatar
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    This thread is a perfect example of what the left (in the states) do about every issue they can't defend. They change the focus on the conversation and try to put you on the defensive. The past is the past. This is a discussion about the present and the possible future outcome of an Iran with nuclear weapons. Derailing the entire thread so you can avoid the topic is asinine.

  18. #118
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    At least he is in the military...
    So am i?...

  19. #119
    The Insane Reeve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sealed Shut View Post
    This thread is a perfect example of what the left (in the states) do about every issue they can't defend. They change the focus on the conversation and try to put you on the defensive. The past is the past. This is a discussion about the present and the possible future outcome of an Iran with nuclear weapons. Derailing the entire thread so you can avoid the topic is asinine.
    Because coming into a nonpartisan thread to make it about left vs. right is so much better.
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  20. #120
    The Unstoppable Force Rukentuts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beavis View Post
    Most modern deterrence models only have two stable equalibria: X=0 and X=N. So, there's really no reason to think X+1 is going have a significant impact on the stability of the system.
    When the +1 has no fear of death, it does change the equation. It kinda defeats MAD.

    MAD only works when both sides fear destruction.
    Quote Originally Posted by GreatOak View Post
    Hey, as a transabled, transethnic, non-binary, genderqueer, neo-communist, indoor-capable republican otherkin I am offended by your callous display of ignorance.
    Quote Originally Posted by Eroginous View Post
    I wouldn't expect someone who thinks science provides proof to know that.

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