When do you think the human species will go extinct?

[Decagon]

Wildtree, like you pointed out, we still have massive amounts of salt water. When fresh water starts becoming more of a commodity, desalination will seem significantly more feasible and will likely become more and more efficient until it's no longer considered "too expensive." I completely agree with you that our current shortage of fresh water is worrying, but I think there are currently bigger and easier fixed problems than our water supply (though that's not to say we shouldn't put some focus on water).

---------- Post added 2012-11-21 at 10:07 AM ----------

I'm not sure our resources are really "that" finite but they are hardly unlimited. Of course, not going extinct hardly means maintaining our rampant consumerism either. Humans are just as adaptable socially and ethically. So I could easily see us going the "solyent green" or "logan's run" route in order to survive. May not be a world many of us would be comfortable in but we'll likely be dead by then anyway.

I completely forgot about that. I doubt many share my position at this current time, but I don't think I would have any qualms about eating "soylent green."

"Soylent Green: That's MY kind of people!"

[Explosions]

This.

It's nothing but an imperative fact, just like all the other pre-Homo Sapiens Sapiens species either evolved (to us) or died off.

There's one difference though. No other species known to mankind has ever had the ability to manipulate their environment to suit them. So, why do species evolve? They evolve so that they are better suited to their environment and the circumstances they have around them. Humans on the other hand have been able to accomplish the task of manipulating the environment to suit us. Society, technology etc. Our bodies currently have no need to evolve further, except maybe brain capacity. You can say that pre-homo-sapien species have done the same and then still evolved which is true, but not even close to the extent that modern man has.

[Elegiac]

I'm not sure our resources are really "that" finite but they are hardly unlimited. Of course, not going extinct hardly means maintaining our rampant consumerism either. Humans are just as adaptable socially and ethically. So I could easily see us going the "solyent green" or "logan's run" route in order to survive. May not be a world many of us would be comfortable in but we'll likely be dead by then anyway.

Both such scenarios imply a lack of exploitation of offworld resources, which are massively in abundance.

[Giants41]

I don't think we will go extinct but we will become few if the abuse of resources keeps happening with out any alternatives. I think we will last for a good amount of time.

[Wildtree]

Wildtree, like you pointed out, we still have massive amounts of salt water. When fresh water starts becoming more of a commodity, desalination will seem significantly more feasible and will likely become more and more efficient until it's no longer considered "too expensive." I completely agree with you that our current shortage of fresh water is worrying, but I think there are currently bigger and easier fixed problems than our water supply (though that's not to say we shouldn't put some focus on water).

Agreed...
Only problem I see coming is the rise of the costs for us the consumer.
If we have to haul water into the fields to water the crop. If we have to haul water to hydrate our livestock, that can be costly, and will reflect on the prices one way or another.
However what you said also supports my confidence in development of our race. We will likely not face the same doom the ancient Egypt Empire suffered, when it basically extinct through a extreme drought period. We can already counter such problem somewhat.
But it needs attention, a lot of it.

[Deepsidedj]

21.12.2012

[Decagon]

Agreed...
Only problem I see coming is the rise of the costs for us the consumer.
If we have to haul water into the fields to water the crop. If we have to haul water to hydrate our livestock, that can be costly, and will reflect on the prices one way or another.
However what you said also supports my confidence in development of our race. We will likely not face the same doom the ancient Egypt Empire suffered, when it basically extinct through a extreme drought period. We can already counter such problem somewhat.
But it needs attention, a lot of it.

Yes, and it certainly isn't being given the attention it deserves, but then again nor is most of the long term problems that humanity as a whole is currently facing or will face soon.

[Benitora]

At best, we will be able to survive to the end of the universe's life cycle.
At worst, we may be destroyed in a decade or two because of human stupidity.

Other ways we can die out is:
-Not colonizing other planets, living on Earth until our resources have been run completely dry/Living on Earth, not colonizing other planets and being destroyed by the sun becoming a red giant.
-A asteroid we did not see coming.
-Cosmic radiation coming through our atmosphere due to a cosmic event happening, such as a Super nova in our neighboring solar systems.
-Destroyed by aliens.
-Natural disasters on a global scale, such as Yellowstone park(If we stay ignorant over it's threat) or Global Warming to a more serious scale.
-An Epidemic of a disease we do not have had the time to research a proper cure for yet (Thanks to planes and other transport methods, the world is much much smaller today than it was during the Black plague)
-Dying out due to a genetic disease in our DNA.

But personally, I think if the Age of Information that we live in today is capable of spreading more rational thought and understanding over how the world works and how important it is for us to work together, I'd say at minimum another million years.

[Nefroz]

Nuclear war - Possible, but entirely preventable. Unlikely event.
Super volcano - Guaranteed occurrence, but will not eliminate all human life.
Gamma ray burst - The odds of winning the lottery every week for a year is greater than the likelihood of effective alignment.
Starvation - Will never eliminate all human life. The key here is to kill enough local competition for resources.
Aliens - There's nothing on Earth aliens with interstellar capabilities couldn't synthesize except human labor. So, if they did invade, we'd still survive... as slaves.
Global warming - A real problem, but also one that self-corrects eventually and would do so before we reach the human cooking point.
Solar flare - Wouldn't reach Earth with enough force to do much more than destroy our technology.
Supernova - We will have burned to death billions of years before our Sun goes supernova due to its expansion in about 4 billion years.
Asteroid - Most likely human-killer. However, theoretical solutions exist. Given enough warning, this scenario is now avoidable.
Rogue black hole - Theoretical impossibility. Singularities do not migrate beyond the constraints of orbital gravity.
Artificial intelligence revolution - This is not a worry. AI is in fact humanity's only real option for evolution and immortality.
Biotech disaster - Modern understandings of travel and quarantine limit this possibility.
Magnetic reversal/spinning off axis - Sea-level is sea-level/impossibility.
Worldwide colony collapse (honeybees) - This would cause some starvation, but not enough to kill all of Earth's human population.
Deadly plague - See biotech disaster.
Mass insanity - See biotech disaster.

The only thing that will kill us all, aside from the eventual death of our Sun if we are not a space-faring species by then, is an asteroid impact. The solutions to this problem have been studied and documented. If we would stop cutting space exploration agency budgets, we'd have nothing to worry about.

any star in our vicinity, including our sun are too small to super novae. They will red Giant and likely white dwarf.

[snivellus]

any star in our vicinity, including our sun are too small to supernova. They will red Giant and likely white dwarf.

not true, a supernova is basically the death of a star. while our sun is rather small now it will continue to grow at which point it will kill of the human population before it actually explodes

[Nefroz]

I'm not saying it wouldn't be catastrophic should it happen, but an extinction event? if it had that power, life would have been set back thousands or millions of years each time it erupts. The only way it could kill everyone would be to cover the earth in ash, (I dont think it could do this, but I could be wrong) which is something I think we can survive we may see large number of casualties however.

US well...that's another story America would be in for some heavy shit, and it would probably end the nation.

You want proof, this is just simple logic, but proof would be last time it erupted all life on the planet didn't caput, ancestors of humans were around, homo habilis was around 1 to 2 million years ago. Neanderthalis first started appearing sometime between 300k to 600k years ago (around the time of the estimate of the last eruption), considering H. Sapiens evolved from Habilis, then Erectus (considered to have first started appearing 300k years ago or so) It's hard to imagine that Yelllowstone would be an extinction event, as our nearest ancestors on the evolutionary scale likely lived through not one but in the case of habilis, but two eruptions of yellowstone.

(Sorry accidently deleted the post)

not true, a supernova is basically the death of a star. while our sun is rather small now it will continue to grow at which point it will kill of the human population before it actually explodes

http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/sc...upernovae.html

Types of Supernovae

Supernovae are divided into two basic physical types:
Type Ia. These result from some binary star systems in which a carbon-oxygen white dwarf is accreting matter from a companion. (What kind of companion star is best suited to produce Type Ia supernovae is hotly debated.) In a popular scenario, so much mass piles up on the white dwarf that its core reaches a critical density of 2 x 109 g/cm3. This is enough to result in an uncontrolled fusion of carbon and oxygen, thus detonating the star.
Type II. These supernovae occur at the end of a massive star's lifetime, when its nuclear fuel is exhausted and it is no longer supported by the release of nuclear energy. If the star's iron core is massive enough, it will collapse and become a supernova.

Straight from Nasa.

most commonly known Supernovae only happen when HUGE stars collapse after going red Giant, often exploding into nebulae to form new accretion disks, and occasionally into black holes, even then both of these events are extraordinarily rare in short spans.

Our star is a VERY small star http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LUQV...eature=related

The fact that it's surface is expanding(even now) doesn't mean its getting bigger, its just expanding, its not gaining mass, and mass is what is needed for eruption of supernovae.

It will likely start its red giant phase in 1 billion years ended earth from the heat of expansion, and engulf the earth in 2 billion years after that. I don't know the time frame for this, but eventually after red gianting it will use up the rest of its fuel and collapse in on itself forming a white dwarf, like most small stars do.

[Vuljatar]

Hundreds of thousands of years from now, if ever.

[Masark]

not true, a supernova is basically the death of a star. while our sun is rather small now it will continue to grow at which point it will kill of the human population before it actually explodes

No. A supernova can only occur if the star is at least 8-10 times the mass of our sun.

Our sun will expand into a red giant, eventually about 250 times its current radius, then eventually shuck the outer layers, resulting in a planetary nebula and a white dwarf.

[Powerogue]

Eventually since our sun won't last forever we just about have to unless we invent faster than light travel(a) that a human can survive in(b). Even the first is still way out of our league.

I still think the most likely causes will be:
-giant meteor the size of mars or something insane that we couldn't possibly defend against
-our warring, from either nuclear weapons and carelessness destroying all habitable land and clean water, or some form of manmade disease. I don't remember where I heard it, but apparently at one point something almost got released to the public that could convert plant matter to alcohol, that could've spread and devoured all plant life on the planet. That would've done it. No plants, no animals, no us.

[Jaylol]

Anywhere between tens or hundreds of thousands of years to a few of million. Quite broad but your poll didn't really have the option that I'd think it'll be.

[ddsad2212]

Once we have true inter planetary travel, never, not until the end of the universe, and if we can records of are discoveries passed on over millions of years, and there is such thing as a multiverse/omiverse, then the face will never go extinct as a way to travel between them WILL be found. But that's all assuming we last until we can travel near the speed of light.

[Truhan]

Tomorrow, but it's just wishful thinking unless I can get some help from fellow robots.

[shise]

What's going on with the entire December 21 2012? Mayans never predicted the end, it's a lie, all they "predicted", if you still want to call it that way, is a CHANGE, which they totally were correct about...


I mean, get it straight already... it's a freaking mass media disinformation, just as 90% of things they actually say.

[Deleted]

I was kind of thinking we'd run out of resources to sustain ourselves.

This is really a non-issue, for now. The asteroid belt has all the metals we can need for a long long while. Venus has carbon to synthesize our food if we decide that we want to reduce our biosphere consumption. And energy? The solar energy our planet receives is huge. And it comes in many flavours: straight solar radiation, wind, sea currents...
So no, we are not running out of resources any time soon. We just will have to re-adapt our industry to harvest those sources instead of just bore a hole in the ground and get oil.

But back on topic, I think the most realistic thing to happen would be running out of clean air, clean water, or food.

Again this surely is a problem even now. The more serious it will become, the more likely there will be multinational efforts to clean our air/water/food. The technology is available, but implementing it is more costly, apparently, than just bearing with the dirt. It will not be forever like that.

Are they real problems? of course they are. They will surely diminish, temporarily, our quality of life. But they are not a threat of extinction, not even a threat to our civilization. They can be dealt with... expensively, but they can be, and they will be when there's no other choice.

Eventually since our sun won't last forever we just about have to unless we invent faster than light travel(a) that a human can survive in(b). Even the first is still way out of our league.

We don't need at all FTL. We only need spaceships with sustainable environments. Or we just need to travel at speeds close enough to the speed of light so the crew of the spaceship will only experience a fraction of the time wasted as seen by a reference frame at rest. This would make for subjectively short trips.

[jahasafrat]

Technically the species Homo Sapien will go extinct. Either we all die or we evolve.

This. I have a morbid curioustity about how our species will meet its end. Or, if homo sapiens sapiens does not die out, I'm also super curious what the next incarnation will look like. So many questions we'll never have answers to...