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  1. #1

    It's startling how fast game activity is falling

    Hours spent playing WoW typically reaches a peak right after an expansion releases, then gradually declines. The decline this time, however, looks like it's much more rapid.

    On XFire, weekly hours spent playing WoW are down over 50% from the week of the release:

    Week Ending | Hours Played
    Sept 30 | 67,659
    Nov 27 | 32,617

    (this is not a Thanksgiving weekend effect, btw; the decline has been inexorable for the past two months.)

    See Nosy Gamer's blog for this data and a spreadsheet with other weeks, as well as data for other games:

    http://nosygamer.blogspot.com/search.../digital_dozen

    Warcraft Realms also shows activity data. It's noisier and less reliable, but appears to be tracking the XFire decline

    http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weeklyfactionactivity.php

    (Compare to this archived image of the decline after the release of Cataclysm)

    http://inanage.files.wordpress.com/2...vitygraph2.png
    Last edited by Osmeric; 2012-11-29 at 12:25 PM.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  2. #2
    Pit Lord IRunSoFarAway's Avatar
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    Data is collected using the latest version of the CensusPlus UI Mod.

    While we all know that WoW is boring and there's nothing to do, it appears that this data was collected from people using a specific mod, and isn't a real representation of anything.
    Last edited by IRunSoFarAway; 2012-11-29 at 01:09 PM. Reason: Sarcasm bolded for special people, enjoy!
    I'm mean because you're stupid.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by IRunSoFarAway View Post
    Data is collected using the latest version of the CensusPlus UI Mod.

    While we all know that WoW is boring and there's nothing to do, it appears that this data was collected from people using a specific mod, and isn't a real representation of anything.
    I did say the WCR data was less reliable; it was more for corroboration of the XFire trend. Having said that, you do know how that mod works, right? It looks at who else is on the server in your faction. It's not just recording the people running the mod.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  4. #4
    And XFire is accurate? Come on, no one uses that sh*t, except a certain demographic that happens to play less... Let me guess, that same demographic happens to play shooters... It's nice that you want to say something meaningful, but it didn't work out, sorry.
    Arguing with a troll is like playing chess with a pigeon. No matter what you do or say, he will just knock over the pieces, take a shit on the board and strut around like he won the whole damn thing.

  5. #5
    Speaking purely from anecdote, my personal experience confirms this as well. Activity was down before I left among my friends list ( a few stalwarts remain), the guild I was in virtually disappeared and we were ultimately bored with the game within a month or so of release. Most have unsubbed and went back to other things. I play alot of starcraft now.

    I wish the OP good luck though. This thread will be flooded soon. Denial is more than just a river in Egypt.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by lios View Post
    And XFire is accurate? Come on, no one uses that sh*t, except a certain demographic that happens to play less... Let me guess, that same demographic happens to play shooters... It's nice that you want to say something meaningful, but it didn't work out, sorry.
    Those in denial can always find a means of maintaining their denial. We were hearing excuses like yours back when the data started coming out at the start of Cataclysm, too.
    Last edited by Osmeric; 2012-11-29 at 12:18 PM. Reason: tyop
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Those in denial can always find a means of maintaining their denial. We were hearing excuses like yours back when the data starting coming out at the start of Cataclysm, too.
    Indeed. History will repeat itself all over again...

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by IRunSoFarAway View Post

    While we all know that WoW is boring and there's nothing to do
    Yeah, sure, nothing to do.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    I did say the WCR data was less reliable; it was more for corroboration of the XFire trend. Having said that, you do know how that mod works, right? It looks at who else is on the server in your faction. It's not just recording the people running the mod.
    WCR might be a little more gray then normal. They only recently (in the past 3-5 days) opened up the ability to upload files and it was running almost 2 days behind processing files. The file I uploaded on the 26th didn't get processed until late on the 27th.

    On that note, the que lines for illidan-US is much lower(if at all) then it was from launch. So I think you're trending has some weight, just hard to know how much. I know for my server, using the Census mod we reached a peak poplation of 1008 players on Alliance and 979 players on Horde during primetime 2 weeks after launch are are now back down to around 750 ally and 650 Horde during Prime time. 2 months after the Launch of Cata, we saw peak numbers that were 1800ish Ally and 1600ish Horde, so my server in particular is past it's glory days.

    Quote Originally Posted by lios View Post
    And XFire is accurate? Come on, no one uses that sh*t, except a certain demographic that happens to play less... Let me guess, that same demographic happens to play shooters... It's nice that you want to say something meaningful, but it didn't work out, sorry.
    I don't know how accurate the X-fire numbers are, but we've heard this argument before that X-fire is crap and no one uses it. But it has trended pretty close with the subscription decline.
    Last edited by Mad_Murdock; 2012-11-29 at 12:27 PM.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Nindoriel View Post
    Yeah, sure, nothing to do.
    The problem with the expansion, I think, was not that there was nothing to do, but that there was not enough worth doing.

    The distinction is crucial. It's the difference between boredom and something closer to ennui. Blizzard has added a lot to do, but has also tweaked the cost (in time) and fun of the activities, so that they don't feel worth doing.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  11. #11
    Dreadlord Pisholina's Avatar
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    I just want to ask why do you care if some people don't play anymore? Do you play the game for them or for yourself? If they leave, do you want to leave too?

    I play the game for myself and don't care if my guild / RL friends quit the game. I will still play it because of what I think is worth: having fun. I will easily get a new guild and find new people to hang out with in WoW.
    I. Like. To. Kill. Things.
    For Pony!

  12. #12
    Not sure why it matters personally. As long as I still get in a BG or arena relatively quick, or am able to find a group for a dungeon or raid, the populations could diminish significantly before I take notice. Are you a fatalist?

    Arrowhead

  13. #13
    So activity declines now that people have had plenty of opportunity to get exalted with the various reputations, thus meaning people return to logging in only for raids/VP capping.

    Meanwhile, your data doesn't include the effect 5.1 has had on the playerbase.

    At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is how you personally feel. Are you enjoying the game? Great! Keep playing. Are you not? No worries, play something else.

    Personally, I'm loving the game and so are my guildies. There are always plenty of us logged in.

    Out of interest, let's do some quick math on your numbers:

    For the week ending September 30th, 67,659 hours of playtime were logged. Let's assume that all of those were contributed by players who played for 4 hours per day. Since the game was released on the 25th, we only have 6 days to work with for this particular week (even though people would very likely have logged in on the previous day to prepare for MoP's release, but hey, let's focus strictly on MoP).

    6 days at 4 hours per day = 24 hours per person.

    67,659/24 = 2,820 (rounded up) people contributed to the above statistic.

    2,820 people... out of 10 million subscribers. Do you honestly think this statistic is in any way relevant? Hell, I'll be generous and say all of those hours logged were from people who played for a single hour in the entire week. That's still only 67,659 people out of 10 million (or 3-4 million in the west). Tiny and insignificant.

    Unfortunately, your numbers are basically irrelevant. The sample size is far too small. Please try to avoid making sensationalist, misleading threads. It really doesn't create decent discussion.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Kisho View Post
    At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is how you personally feel.
    Activity and subscriber trends will affect what happens to the game, which will then affect you. You may feel perfectly happy with the game, but if the trends are bad, the game could change in a way that could ruin it for you.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  15. #15
    Wouldnt be because of ALL the games coming out at this time of year? Nah that wouldnt eat into peoples Wow time, or the fact that Xmas is coming and half the Wow population is involved in RL events surrounding said holiday?

    Either way I couldnt give a flying fuck as I play games for my own enjoyment, not other peoples, or to fit into a trend.

  16. #16
    Will be interesting to see how that pans out tbh. My impression is rather the opposite, game activity is going a lot stronger than expected. I guess the truth is somewhere in the middle there..

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Pisholina View Post
    I just want to ask why do you care if some people don't play anymore?
    Why do you care why I care? Are you fishing for some motivation that you can use to dismiss the data I'm presenting?
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  18. #18
    It hasnt historically so why would it now?

    Also what would these changes you speak of be? And if so how would it ruin it for the remaining player base? Surely they`d shore things up so that didnt happen, i.e CRZ and shit.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Kisho View Post
    2,820 people... out of 10 million subscribers. Do you honestly think this statistic is in any way relevant?
    Yes, I do. Statistically, it's an adequately large sample. It could be biased, but that's a separate issue from the size of the sample. XFire trends for games have historically seemed to track actual success or failure of the games.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  20. #20
    I am surprised that you care this much Osmeric. Have you ever played a dying game? Like Dark Age of Camelot or City of Heroes? I don't think you know what dying is, and even in those particular situations, a person could log on and still find a group to do stuff, like task forces in City of Heroes were similar to dungeons/raids, and they could still be thrown together with the measly 150 people logged in across the whole server. It really doesn't matter if the population dwindles. And if WoW dies, it dies. It shouldn't bother you, its just a game. There will be other popular games that you can participate in if that's what really matters to you: Following Trends.

    Arrowhead

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