Mafia Game 21 Geology School

[Anakso]

Because if he is not the SK Deca, the SK will kill him.
He's the only one remaining that could NK the SK.

[Decagon]

Because if he is not the SK Deca, the SK will kill him.
He's the only one remaining that could NK the SK.

How could rolo night kill the SK if he's not the SK? Are you going off the assumption that he is mafia?

[Rollo]

My assumption is based on the fact that the cop has no quarrel with the serial killers (aside from Anakso being a decent player). Same with Kisuro. The journalist will only be able to confirm who killed Krayzy and what Krayzy's role is, and what Lysah's role is. Kisuro is no danger to the SKs role wise, but he could be shut up to continue the game being confusing. I think I'll be targeted because I can prevent a kill by jailing the target, ala night 3 (assuming). It would also be the cover the SKs would need to continue the status quo currently in the game. At the same time, the SKs could leave me alive to promote further confusions for the coming days. The SKs still need to survive future lynch nights and could possibly try to paint me as a serial killer.

(I apologize for all of the typos, been posting from the carpool on my way home)

[Anakso]

How could rolo night kill the SK if he's not the SK? Are you going off the assumption that he is mafia?

I'm going off the assumption that it's a possibility, which isn't an assumption it's fact. It is possible Rolo is mafia. He is actually the only person that is still possible for. if he's mafia and they don't target him, he could target them.

---------- Post added 2012-12-14 at 12:08 PM ----------

Also keep in mind Deca, as I said. If Rolo is mafia and isn't targeted in the night, and he mis targets and doesn't hit the SK. (or there are two SKs left) Town can't win, we can only chose which faction wins but it won't be us.

[Decagon]

Alright, so it's more likely that we will lose if we do not lynch tonight. The only thing we need to do now is determine who is most likely to be scum, hopefully an SK, and you seem to think that rolo is the best target to lynch right now.

rolo, I feel it is more likely that Kisuro will indeed survive the night assuming that you are not mafia, however, if the mafia does still live, then Kisuro would be the most likely target as the added confusion is more likely to result in a mislynch (causing scum to win) than it is for the JK (whether that is you or Ely) from randomly selecting someone to jail in hopes of preventing a town death (which could still end in a town loss as we do not know exactly the number or the affiliation of the scum remaining.) However, if both Ana and I are wrong and it is possible that both you and Ely are JKs, then yes, it's entirely possible you will be killed off, though Ely is also a valid target in this particular scenario. I actually feel more inclined to believe that Ely would be killed in the previous scenario as it would be most believed that he was town, but whether or not you are scum would still be unknown.

Also, why are we keeping Kel out of this? He has said VERY little, and unless I missed it and he went to bed, he is lurking as he has not been mentioned much at all, and he has no reason to post as most suspicion is currently rested on rolo.

[Anakso]

Also as their can't be two JKs (I'm sticking to his otherwise the OP has misinformation in it! All the other ifs are clearly states so I feel this one is too and we're looking to much into the use of the word may)

If Kel and Deca really are the SK team like Rolo insists, then Rolo is mafia because Elyaan must be the JK.
If Rolo is town and telling the truth then Elyaan has to be the SK and he's either alone or working with Deca or Kel and considering Elyaan is the one that stopped us from lynching Deca I'd be inclined to believe it's Deca he's working with but I'm very usure on this. At the end of the day a choice between Deca and Kel being the SK for me is a coin flip.

Either way I think our best option is to lynch rolo to find out his role.

[Decagon]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that if there is only one scum left, if we lynch rolo, that will result in a 3v1 (one lynch, probably one night kill), or, if rolo is scum, that either results in a win, or we have one scum left, resulting in 3v1 again, however, we could be stuck with 2v2, if it turns out rolo is town, and there are two scum left, resulting in the only way of a town win to be the scum targeting each other, or a successful lynch on a scum, this assumes it is not a team though. If it is 2v2, with a scum team, we lose. If rolo is town, and there are two scum who do not target each other, there will be three deaths, likely town town town, and that would result in a loss.

A no lynch would result in either one or two deaths, but we would gain much more information than we currently have, as at the moment we're shooting (lynching, hurhurhur) in the dark, leaving whether or not town wins almost completely up to chance.

We have to be ABSOLUTELY certain that who we lynch is scum (seems to be leaning towards rolo at the moment, as I believe Ely has his vote on him currently) or our likelihood of winning is drastically reduced.

---------- Post added 2012-12-13 at 09:52 PM ----------

We need, what, 4 votes to push a lynch?

[Rollo]

You need 4 to lynch...2 more (Anakso and Elyaan already have me voted).

[Decagon]

Are we planning on committing to a rolo lynch, or should I wait to vote until tomorrow? (as I'm going to sleep in probably about 10 minutes)

[Rollo]

Id prefer a non commital approach =(

---------- Post added 2012-12-13 at 09:08 PM ----------

Also, why has Kel been extremely quiet. I really feel like I've put him on tilt with my suspicions.

[Decagon]

Id prefer a non commital approach =(

---------- Post added 2012-12-13 at 09:08 PM ----------

Also, why has Kel been extremely quiet. I really feel like I've put him on tilt with my suspicions.

I brought up that he's been quiet as well, it looks like he's only posts 2-3 times this day, and all three posts (I think) were one liners and didn't have a huge amount of content. If I had to guess, he's either not playing town very well right now (perhaps other commitments) or he is scum. I'm more inclined to believe the latter.

---------- Post added 2012-12-13 at 10:12 PM ----------

Well, I'm off, don't do anything crazy while I'm gone.

[Rollo]

I'm going to bed as well. It's almost 10pm, gotta get up at 3 am all weekend =(

[Anakso]

Assume Kel is sleeping or something. Kisuro and Elyaan are both absent too.

We could have up to 3 scum left if Rolo is mafia Deca, two if he's not mafia. Ideally one.

[Kisuro]

I just came back from a busy night shift, which is why I wasn't active for some time. Right now my brain is in no shape to process everything that's happened, and I'm not even going to try, sorry. I'll make my mind up once I'm awake.

[kel]

Assume Kel is sleeping or something. Kisuro and Elyaan are both absent too.

We could have up to 3 scum left if Rolo is mafia Deca, two if he's not mafia. Ideally one.

Yeah, this chat happened at 3-5 AM my time. Just like every other chat and i was a bit busy earlier.
Anyway I have no idea what to do, seems like every option we take causes us to lose too many people, we either no lynch and lose people or we lynch and lose more people, somehow it seems like a loss / loss.

[Anakso]

The way I see it Lynching Rolo is really our only option. We know one of Elyaan and Rolo are scum and the only way to find out for sure is to lynch one of them.
If Elyaan is scum this means he correctly guessed my night action or the real JKs night action, kinda.
If Rolo is scum he just went off what has already been said and made his night actions fit.

Once rolo is gone, if the game is still going it'll be time to determine who the SK is. Or we lose because there are two of them, that could happen weather he is Mafia or not so I'm just going to say let's hope there aren't two of them.

If there are two of them we can No lynch or Lynch Kel or Deca in the hopes of hitting an SK. Although Elyaan could be one too, it depends if Rolo is mafia or the real JK. (the latter I doubt) If we lynch kel or deca and get it right then Rolo could take out the remaining SK for us tomorrow or the SK will take our Rolo. (the latter is most likely to happen regardless of Rolos actual role) then we have another 50/50 chance.
If we lynch Kel or Deca and get it wrong and there are two SKs, we still end up losing.

If two SKs remain the odds are heavily stacked against us because it will require basically a 2/3 shot lynch followed by a 1/2 shot lynch. All the while no clear cut information on what role Rolo is to know if Elyaan is lying or telling the truth.

Basically, I'm gambling on the fact there are not two SKs and choosing to Lynch Rolo. There is of course the other possibility there are two SKs and Rolo is one of them. If that's the case our chances become even slimmer of winning by not lynching Rolo today.

---------- Post added 2012-12-14 at 04:40 PM ----------

I'll also point out Rolos role claim conveniently came as soon as a night ended with only one NK and the report claiming the doc was dead. He would have known Elyaan Jailed him and thus his NK did not go through. He immediately claimed JK to counter the claim that he was Jailed. It was after all, his only option.

[Rollo]

While my claim does seem to come at a very opportune time for myself, please understand. I felt that we had a SK team (Elyaan and Anakso) or at least a SK taking advantage of a TPR and I didn't want to get caught up in that. Daybreak today proved to me that at least Kisuro has a true claim. While your claim that my supposed kill was blocked by the JK, I would counter that by saying Krayzy's kill was blocked by being killed first. It's the only thing I can explain, because I didn't have a night role to kill anyone.

[Anakso]

We have 11hours until deadline so people should make their minds up soon on what they want to do, or it will become a No-lynch by default.

[kel]

11 hours is plenty of time, but if you say lynching rolo is our only option I will do it, unless someone comes up with a better idea sometime soon

[ELYPOP]

Quick question: Am I permitted to post screenies of Keleb's PM/the JK thread just to prove what I actually am?

Either way, the way I see it, Rolo's doing a good job at stalling/pushing a no lynch to protect himself. He could very well be a SK, or Mafia, and kill the remaining townies tonight. Just sayin'.