I'm sorry, what were you lying? 30-40% DPS nerf? I don't think so.
Oh sweet fuck. I don't think you even understand what you're looking at. The graph is for the last 60 days. The hotfix has been out for three 3 days. Two of them are typically non-raid days (Friday/Saturday.)
Want me to hold your hand through the math? Because I will. Numbers are scary but we can get through this.
That is a 33% reduction in double crit chance + 50% reduction in combustion damage.
look at the chance for the next pyro to krit.
45% krit : Chance for 3 crits in a row : 9%
37.5% krit : Chance for 3 crits in a row : 5%
nearly 50% reduction.
The Chance for a reasonable combustion are worse now but the chance for a great combustion are negligible. The chance for me to get a "perfect" Combustion are now at 0,5% instead of 1,5%. I had one perfect combustion since mop guess it was also the last one
The nerf was a bit too much. And i don't get why they did it as a HOTFIX... didn't we get a big contentpatch 3 days earlier? Or they could have waited until 5.2! Now i know i will be doing a lot less DPS on the progress-bosses than mages of guilds that have already killed them even when i'm in full BiS-Gear some day. Simply stupid to hotfix such a big nerf.
50% nerf for Combustion (50%!!!!) AND a significant nerf for Critical Mass... they should have CHANGED combustion somehow but not nerf it so hard. It's bad design that this one spell could make such a big difference because of RNG. Sometimes you did 4mio DMG Combustions, sometimes not even 1mio. Of course mages were OP when they can pull off a 4mio Combustion (which leads to a good ranking on wol), but most of the time you would only get much smaller combustions and your DPS would not surpass warlocks for example.
Combustion should have needed a redesign giving it a lot higher min-ticks and a lot lower max-ticks. Maybe capping it at 75k DMG per Tick but letting it tick for a minimum of 40k.
Fire relies on getting multiple crit pyroblasts to have big combustions. Not only was combustions damage reduced by 50%, but the only stability in damage (pyroblast dot) was removed in 5.1, and the chance to get a double crit was reduced by 33%. The most rng spec in the game has become more rng while eating the heaviest nerf any hotfix has ever had.
For a good mage (read: mage that knows how to use combustion) combustion was 20-30% of their total damage on a given fight. Ignoring the crit chance nerf, that's a flat 12.5% (on average) overall damage nerf. When you include the CM nerfs reduction in double pyroblast crits on combustion we're losing closer to 16% overall damage. We're down 16%, JUST from combustion.
On top of the 16% overall damage we've lost from combustion, we've also lost 16.7% of our crit fireballs, which means 16.7% less pyroblasts from fb+ IB. Of the pyroblasts that we get 16.7% less crits than we used to.
I don't even play a Mage and I agree the Critical Mass nerf was overkill. Mages in my guild that frequently parse in the top 50-100 were knocked down to the middle-bottom of the pack with this change. Amusingly with all the Hunter buffs of recent, our Hunter is now skyrocketing to the top 10 parses despite using a 463 gun.
All this nerf really means is that every raiding Mage now has to play Frost or they're holding their guild back.