Would europeans be willing to take a China bailout in return for some sovereignty?

[Arlon]

And leaving the people of those countries to fend for themselves, with such corrupt governments, is totally the solution.

And no, the developed EU countries aren't being sucked dry. In fact, most of them have a GDP growth, regardless of the fact the recession is still on-going. Sweden, for example, donates 2% of its GDP every year as aid (not related to the current EU crisis) and they're prospering. Seriously, if your country is being "drained" right now, I'm sure you can handle it.

Also, the current crisis isn't as much the result of countries not playing by established rules as much as it is about the countries experimenting with the wrong social model (in this case, the Mediterranean one). No one could have known it wouldn't work. It happened to backfire on them and all of the sudden they don't deserve help?

Its not our job to infringe on their sovereignty. Let them handle the morons they put in charge in the first place. I do no wish to "handle it" while giving money to parasites while our own people have done mostly nothing wrong. Lets see how long those GDP figures will keep growing.

"No one could have known it wouldn´t work" is a load of bullshit. It was obvious as the sky that in the first sign of trouble(IE: USA derivative market fucking us up) they would shit themselves while crying for bailouts.

[steveyboy]

Will never happen, europeans are too stubborn to accept aid from elsewhere, especially the British if it meant losing there soverenty.

I'm British btw.

[Landin55]

The countries that fought over thrones if they were cousins twice removed give up any kind of power to foreigners without an act of war? lol

[Rinoa]

You must be confusing the European Union (EU) with Europe. Several countries in Europe have enjoyed financial prosperity during the global problems. Norway in particular has made hundreds of billions of dollars in profit from it.

Common mistake, don't worry.

[Laize]

Why would China be the one to offer anything?

They have practically no money compared to the US or EU.

---------- Post added 2012-12-09 at 08:05 AM ----------

You must be confusing the European Union (EU) with Europe. Several countries in Europe have enjoyed financial prosperity during the global problems. Norway in particular has made hundreds of billions of dollars in profit from it.

Common mistake, don't worry.

So has Germany. Exporting nations tend to go gangbusters when their currency weakens.

[bufferunderrun]

I had a really interesting discussion with some people about the European debt crisis. We talked about the recession Europe is mired in. We talked about the huge problems with Greece, and Italy's issues. It seems quite a mess.

So I proposed this question and it generated some interesting responses. I was curious to see what sort of responses it would get here. My friends told me not to start this thread, because they may think I'm just trolling. But I'm just too curious as to what the responses would be.

So here is the scenario:

Let's say China approached Europe with an offer. They would give a MASSIVE bailout. I dunno, quadrillions of dollars, or something amazing. This cash infusion would solve their debt crisis, and return Europe to prosperity. Jobs would return. There would be a brighter future on the immediate horizon. It would also have the potential to guarantee the long-term viability of Europe's social safety net. What China asks for in return is for Europe to surrender some degree of their sovereignty to China. China would get control of some aspects of European society going forward, to protect their new investment. I think there is some latitude on what form this control manifests itself as. Perhaps they get final say on economic matters. Or maybe they get some sort of permanent seat in government with some veto powers or legislation writing ability.

Would europeans be willing to do this, to try to make sure their social programs are well-funded? To make sure austerity is never an option?

Italy?? can you pls give me sources of us receiving money from other european countries? I don't remember italy asking for any bailout on the contrary i remember perfectly that we are the third contributor to the eu budget giving more money than Uk and many other "rich" countries that blatantly screem about being drained out.

[Deleted]

I seriously don't get why anyone would vote yes to this.

There isn't a country out there that would willingly surrender anything like this to any other country.

[Banawani]

You must not know how Economies work. For example, "The largest portion of U.S. debt, 68 cents for every dollar or about $10 trillion, is owned by individual investors, corporations, state and local governments."

"In total, China owns about 8 percent of publicly held U.S. debt." The EU and US (both owing about 16T in debt each) don't, figure assuming the US owes 8% to China, the EU is somewhere between 6-10% which is 1T-1.4T. That's still over 15.5T in internal debt, which is the only thing really that impacts jobs, infrastructure, etc.

[LolretKJ]

When was the last time a huge bailout worked?
(besides Obama with GM)

[Deleted]

I would be willing to surrender some part of the sovereignty to some other country, depending on how trustworthy they are in matters regarding having soverignty over others. To Germany, to the viking countries, to Japan... even to the UK, stretching it. Almost breaking, to Brazil. Not to the US nor India. And no, never* to China or Russia.

*Never here means "never as long as they keep their forms of government".

[Deleted]

No, just drop Greece out the European Union and it's a good step forward. Greece is like dropping money in an endless well, there's no fix at this current rate.

[Mikael123]

OP, your scenario is unrealistic and naive and shows little knowledge of Europe and the European depth crisis. If you replace "Europe" with "Greece" it would make a little more sense.
What kind of sovereignity are you talking about? Permanent seat in government? Lol are you trolling us? Which country would ever do that?

[Livevil]

The hell? Do you have any idea what corruption those countries have compared to the rest of western Europe? Forget about kicking them out, if the EU leaders would take their heads out of eachothers ass, those countries would not have even been integrated into EU in the first place if they had been in this state since the beginning.

Spain could arguably stay though.

You do have an idea then? Do you live in one of those countries to know first hand or you just rely on public media for information? Do you honestly believe that they are in that situation because "they are corrupted" or my favorite, because "they are lazy"? When i hear stuff like "they should gtfo", sorry for the characterization but you are a racist uneducated moron and you got zero connection to the reality. You have so much more to lose if those countries leave the union at this point.

Everyone knew about the economies of those countries in the first place, but they chose to integrate them into the EU. Did you expect small countries without heavy production to stand side by side with economies such of Germany or France? It was inevitable that the rich was going to become richer and the poor was going to become poorer. Knowing all these the EU leaders still allowed those weaker countries to become members. So please don't go around point fingers when everyone is to blame for the situation.

[Wikiy]

"No one could have known it wouldn´t work" is a load of bullshit. It was obvious as the sky that in the first sign of trouble(IE: USA derivative market fucking us up) they would shit themselves while crying for bailouts.

Sure, obvious as the sky, except not a single person (from your side of the fence) warned them about it. Again, no one could have known (and if they did know, it was their own damn fault for not talking about it) that things would go down the shitter.

---------- Post added 2012-12-09 at 01:16 PM ----------

So please don't go around point fingers when everyone is to blame for the situation.

Which has been my point all along. This situation is as much (if not more) on Northern/Western Europe as it is on Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece. And as I've said, asking for those countries to leave (or kicking them out) would be the easy and stupid way out.

[Jackmoves]

So has Germany. Exporting nations tend to go gangbusters when their currency weakens.

Both Norway and Sweden has seen the currency appreciate quite a bit though, Norways CB slashed interest rates several times to counter it though. The Swedish krona havn't been this strong since 2000, but our Riksbank is most likely going to cut interest rates soon enough. There has been an influx of currency investors, needless to say as an export based economy it isn't popular among companies that rely on exporting their goods, exports droped by 1,5% this quarter.

Here is a good write up for why that has happened, from aug 2012.

In a note to clients, HSBC stated that the krona “appears to be in the midst of an upwards re-rating by the markets which could well see its strength continue and extend.”

And here in a nutshell is what they listed as the factors boosting the currency:

- As we have seen for quite some time, EU issues are pushing down the euro against other currencies.
- The latest interest rate cut by the ECB has increased the rate gap between Sweden and Europe in the krona’s favor.

On top of that:

- Sweden is rated “AAA” by all three ratings agencies.
- The country has a very workable public debt level that is 35% of GDP. Compare that with its peers. Total debt for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries went from 73.3% of total OECD GDP in 2007 to a forecasted 106% in 2012.
- The country’s budget balance is right around even, which strategists say opens the door for any fiscal stimulus if needed.
- Forex reserves are sufficient at about 15% of GDP. Not an overabundance of reserves but enough to be able to help in case of any currency issues.
- It’s true that Sweden has some exposure to the EU crisis, however its main trading partners aren’t necessarily all EU members. It’s likely it could come out of this without any critical damage if the Union implodes. Swedbank CEO Michael Wolf stated, “Sweden looks very robust in the context of the European debt crisis and Swedish banks are performing extremely well in this environment.”
- And finally, we come to the large current account surplus – and it appears that export volumes are holding up. The broad measure of trade signifies that the Swedes don’t have to rely on foreign capital or outside creditors to fund a trade deficit, like the current situation we find ourselves in.

As for Valuation…

HSBC has looked at the purchasing power parity between the krona and other currencies. Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a method used to figure out what a currency exchange rate should be. It goes along the lines that currency exchange rates between two countries should be at a place where you could buy something at the same price in either country. HSBC’s analysis found that the krona is 5% “cheap” in relation to the Japanese yen (JPY), 16% cheap to the Swiss franc (CHF) and 19% cheap to the Norwegian krone (NOK).

Plus, in a global climate where policymakers are attempting to keep their currencies in check, Swedish administrators don’t seem too worried about the strength of the krona. HSBC strategists summarized that, “In a global ugly contest, SEK appears increasingly attractive, and it seems likely that its recent strength will be continued and extended. We now expect the recent gains to be extended by another 5% by the end of the year.”

[Deleted]

No, just drop Greece out the European Union and it's a good step forward. Greece is like dropping money in an endless well, there's no fix at this current rate.

Can't unless you can find a scenario where all the goods comming from there gets a fail curency conversion to euro. And yes since they are in majority a merchant country and the rest in toursim, they will always be the first to get "hit" when any consumption crysis arizes. Aka, if people are short on money they give up on vacations first and lower it's consumption.

[Grummgug]

The free market provides a timely warning about a debt crisis.

What we have in Europe, and in many places, is a situation where credit froze up in 2008. The response to this was a massive load of fresh government debt spending to get the wheels moving. This solution has nasty side effects. Government debt was taken to extremely high levels. This lowers the credit rating of these nations, in the same way an individual with a large amount of debt has a lower credit rating than an individual with no debt. This means interest rates rise for that nation, in much the same way an individual with a large amount of debt will only be able to borrow money at a higher interest rate than someone with no debt. Investors will only take on the risk of being exposed to Europe's burgeoning debts at higher interest rates.

So you have:

credit crisis > massive debt spending > higher interest rates

To complicate matters further, nations are indebted to each other. In other words, they buy each other's debt. For example, Italy might have borrowed $400 billion from France to keep its economy moving. If Italy goes bankrupt anyway, France is suddenly out $400 billion. And suddenly France is hurting very badly. This is called contagion.

If Greece fails, its going to take down a number of banks with it, and probably lead to another credit crisis.

One solution is austerity. Nations can try to absorb the hit by getting their own books in order as quickly as possible before Greece goes down. It means an economic slowdown in the immediate future, but it may lessen the blow of a crisis later on.

But another solution would be for an "angel investor" to swoop down from above with a rescue package, buying up all the debt and ending the crisis right there. This happens in the business world a lot. A small, struggling company is about to go under, but they find a wealthy financial backer to invest in the project, in return for giving that angel investor some measure of control over operations. That's where I get the idea for this thread. China could be that angel investor. They might be willing to gobble up much of the debt....in return for some measure of control.

Of course you have the US solution - have the Fed create money out of thin air and buy treasuries, which artificially holds down interest rates in the short term. it will play havoc with US finance in the long term though.

---------- Post added 2012-12-09 at 04:57 AM ----------

Perhaps the best way to explain the problem is that debt spending is AT BEST a short-term solution to an economic bust. In the short-term it can have a mostly positive effect. But if you KEEP debt spending for YEARS, you start to run into bigger problems. Interest rates rise, credit falls, and ultimately the threat of bankruptcy looms.

It is VERY VERY unhealthy for debt spending to be at these levels for 4 years. That is far too long. They needed to have ready some other solution beyond debt spending.