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  1. #1
    Mechagnome a C e's Avatar
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    Regarding Ashes of Alar mount and its drop rates

    me and my friend have been farming TK, 6 times a week and finally after many many runs a mount drops and after some negotiations we accepted that he gets the mount.
    we will continue the farming until i get it also but i am worried i will not get the mount for a long time or even never.

    is there anyone good with statistics that can theory craft the chances that i can get the mount ??

    it seems that the drop rate is noted as 2% on wowhead. i figured that it can drop at the rate of 12% per week if we count the number of raids we do. but if that was true then we would have them by now.

    can someone please give me some statistic here?
    and can someone tell me of their experience with the drop chance

  2. #2
    Legendary! Thelxi's Avatar
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    Wowhead is as accurate as it gets if you just want the drop rate %.

  3. #3
    RNG doesnt work that way, you still have the same 2% chance every time you try, you just have more attempts at it

  4. #4
    Stood in the Fire Static Transit's Avatar
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    Go take a statistics class. It's the same percentage every time you do it.

  5. #5
    dont trust statistics, rng is rng its 2% every time you run it not 4% if you run it twice or 12% if you run it 6 times. 2% is 2%, you may run it another 1000 times and not see it again pray to the luck gods and offer them saccrifice.

    3 runs and I saw ashes once (didnt get)
    hundreds of mc runs and I never even saw either tf binding drop once

  6. #6
    Been farming it every week and it dropped on our first night of dinging 85 on alts...we farm it with 3 people so my DK friend got lucky.

    Seen it drop 5 times in total, wich of I was raidleader and masterlooter over 20 people for 3 of those drops...if I could travel back I'd ninja it. :P Or not, I'm just to fucking honest.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by azemis View Post
    dont trust statistics, rng is rng its 2% every time you run it not 4% if you run it twice or 12% if you run it 6 times. 2% is 2%, you may run it another 1000 times and not see it again pray to the luck gods and offer them saccrifice.

    3 runs and I saw ashes once (didnt get)
    hundreds of mc runs and I never even saw either tf binding drop once
    Well, if you take a statistics class, they will tell you (for example) that the probability for two runs is on AVERAGE 4%. A technicality, I guess its in how you word it.

  8. #8
    The Unstoppable Force N-aix's Avatar
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    RNG is always awesome OP but honestly you can't really do X amount of runs and expect it to drop on like the 100th run

    Hell mine took 69 runs; 69 weeks of KILLING THAT BOSS

    Terrible <.<

  9. #9
    Moderator chazus's Avatar
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    My friend got the Red Zulian Tiger the first time she ever went to ZG, which was the week before it went away. Thats RNG.

  10. #10
    My friend and I farmed it for weeks. I want to say we ran it...20 times? The first week one dropped I got it, and then the very next week he got his as well. It was one of our better mount runs, to be honest, in terms of luck.

  11. #11
    It's a very low drop rate, but it's a cool mount. Keep at it

  12. #12
    Took me around 50 solo attempts to get it. It's not so rare now since players have been able to solo it on mains and alts.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by kidace View Post
    it seems that the drop rate is noted as 2% on wowhead. i figured that it can drop at the rate of 12% per week if we count the number of raids we do. but if that was true then we would have them by now.
    statistics don't work that way

  14. #14
    Mechagnome ayashi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lando627 View Post
    Well, if you take a statistics class, they will tell you (for example) that the probability for two runs is on AVERAGE 4%. A technicality, I guess its in how you word it.
    No, a class in statistics would tell you that for two runs the average chance of seeing the ashes drop once is 0.98*0.98 or 3.96%. Over 12 runs it's 21,53%.
    And over N runs it's 0.98^N
    Quote Originally Posted by Goatfish View Post
    the average wow player is only a step above eating glue and a step below doing basic addition. Right about being able to operate scissors fairly properly is the sweet spot.

  15. #15
    The Lightbringer vian's Avatar
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    Me and my bud had it drop twice in two weeks. Just keep going and you'll get it, sooner or later.
    Quote Originally Posted by bizzy View Post
    yeh but lava is just very hot water

  16. #16
    Well it's realy about rng here, at my first try i soloed all bosses except for kael because it would get bugged and he would kill me by throwing me in the air and i would get alot of fall dmg, soo i quitted after few wipes, made a ticket and the gm said that they know about the bug but they're not going to fix it anyway because devs won't go back to a instance to fix it because they work on new content, soo after 2 days i decided to take 1 friend he didn't rly wanted t come with me because i had almost all bosses and he wanted t5 shoulders but i convinced him, we killed him, mount droped and he got it. RNG.

  17. #17
    The Patient
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    Quote Originally Posted by kidace View Post
    ...

    it seems that the drop rate is noted as 2% on wowhead. i figured that it can drop at the rate of 12% per week if we count the number of raids we do. but if that was true then we would have them by now.

    can someone please give me some statistic here?
    and can someone tell me of their experience with the drop chance
    The 6*2% = 12% logic is flawed.
    For starters, extrapolate the best case scenario:
    2% = 0.02. You got six tries. 6 tries to NOT get it, is 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 = 0,885842380864
    Thats still almost 12% but not entirely. Extrapolation of these figures can quickly lead to very diffrent results, but never 0.00 (never) or 1.0 (certain drop)

    Following the same logic you can multiply this to several weeks and see your 'odds' then.

    However, baseline to this logic is that it all happens by a dice roll. So at the end of the day, the loot system is the joker with the dice and statistics has nothing to say. You can get it on your first kill, or it can take forever. Use it as a motivation to keep going rather then giving up ;-)
    Smierc @ Quel'thalas EU

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Babaganouch View Post
    Me and my bud had it drop twice in two weeks. Just keep going and you'll get it, sooner or later.
    ^This. Add some statistics to get motivated and fine.

    Example:

    Short way: 0.992*0.992 = 0,984 = 0,016 = 1,6%

    And over N runs it's 0.992^N


    Medium Way:
    0.8% drop rate = 0.008
    1 - 0.008 = 0.992 or a 99.2% chance you will NOT see the ashes on the first kill.
    0.992 x 0.992 = 0.984064 = 98.406% chance you will NOT see the ashes on your first two kills, or a 1.594% chance you will.
    0.992^3 = 0.97619 = 97.619% chance for no drop, or 2.381% chance for the drop.
    So on and so forth.

    The longest Way: The third (even more complicated) way to math it out (but it may make more sense):

    0,8%

    Kill 1: 0.008 x 100.000 = 0.8%
    Kill 2: 0.008 x 99.2000 = 0.7936% + 0.80000% = 1.59360%
    Kill 3: 0.008 x 98.4064 = 0.7872% + 1.59360% = 2.38090%
    Kill 4: 0.008 x 97,6191 = 0.7809% + 2.38090% = 3.16815%
    Kill 5: 0.008 x 96.8318 = 0.7746% + 3.16815% = 3.94280%
    Kill 6: 0.008 x 96.0572 = 0.7684% + 3.94280% = 4.71120%

    Ofcourse the dropchance stays at 1,2 (or whatever it is) and you only increase your chance to see the mount
    Last edited by Yindoo; 2012-08-10 at 10:02 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larynx View Post
    For more overused and misunderstood terminology in MMOs, see: Pay to Win, Casual, Hardcore, Carrot on a Stick, Ganking, Trolling

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by DZalvi85 View Post
    RNG doesnt work that way, you still have the same 2% chance every time you try, you just have more attempts at it
    Exactly

    Yes there is a good chance you'll never see it but you might get it your next kill. Who knows
    This is absolutely the attitude and language that, in this community, needs to go sit in the corner for a while. If you can't stand the thought of there being multiple difficulty tiers of content -- into which we pour a lot of our development efforts -- to make raiding feasible for more than 2% of players, hit Heroic mode, turn on vent, and repeatedly remind your friends how good you are. I have no doubt they care

  20. #20
    Mechagnome a C e's Avatar
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    ty you guys i hope i get it too some day, it is kind of a bummer that you know you will get the next one but you dont know when it will actually drop, i rather hope rng gods drop it sooner than later

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