So, I just got my four set last night (hazaa!) and it made me really start thinking about enrage uptime and how to absolutely max it out (as opposed to doing the best rotation). Figured I'd start a discussion on here. This is what I figured out so far. Everything is the maximum (no overlap/mid-duration-refreshes of enrages) and the math is rough, so let's do this and figure some shit out!
Assuming ~20% crit, one out of every two and a half bloodthirsts will crit. In 60 seconds, you can get off 14 BTs, so assuming the enrages never overlap, that's a maximum of 14hits*(1crit/2.5hit)*6 second enrage= 33 seconds enraged, or right at 56% uptime.
Let's say you got a weak aura telling you when enrage falls off, and pop Berserker rage whenever it does. You get two of those every minute. If timed right and again, no overlapping goes on, you've got at most 12 more seconds of enrage, upping 33/60 to 45/60, or 75%
Alright, so you have a recklessness every 2 and a half minutes that guarantees 100% crit chance on BT for 18 seconds. That's 4 BTs (if you're quick), and 18+6=24 seconds of straight enrage. That leaves us with 36 seconds of the original 75% uptime, which would yield 27/36 seconds enraged. In all, that minute you'd be enraged 85% of the time.
That's as far as I've gotten though, 75% consistent uptime and 85% every 3rd minute with Reck pop. Any other ideas? How close could we potentially get right now to 100% with the gear that's out there? I'm thinkin crit procs but am at work and can't go any more in depth.
But, I just did. It's a model of the maximum possible. If you want to, feel free to make an equally unrealistic model of everything overlapping, Mr. Negative Pants. With that, we'll have a min-max range, and then we'll really be cookin with fire.
But it's not. Maximum possible is when you win the rng lottery and every bloodthirst crits. You might say "but that's highly unrealistic, because you only have a 40% chance for bloodthirst to crit so the chances of having every single one crit in a fight are absurdly small". It's just as unrealistic to consider a situation where your enrages perfectly sync up and never overlap, probability and reality simply don't function in that way. And well, given enrage lasts 6 seconds and bloodthirst has a 4.5 second cooldown, how exactly are you going to have it so that enrages never overlap? Delay bloodthirst a gcd every time? Neglecting the fact that colossus smash crits also proc enrage.
Well worded critique, Rhia, thank you. I see what you're saying but I'm trying to work within the constraint of crit% related procs; I'm not assuming that every single one procs, but again, if you'd like to play around with a different model, feel free. This is an open forum and I'm just trying to start a thread that studies enrage uptime from all angles. In my model, I'm assuming that of the 14 bloodthirsts per minute possible, 40% (5.6) of them proc. Hitting this on the money is fairly unlikely too, as out of the 16384 permutations of those 14 hits are only going to hit 6 times with a probability of 20.6: [bin.dis. (14!/(6!*8!)*(.4^6)*(.6^8)], but if you want to get serious and talk about reality, then I'm down for it, it's just that that isn't my point. I'm trying to figure the maximum possible enrage uptime and the ideal way to get there, not necessarily the best dps. I don't have the stats background to figure out the exact probability of not having enrages overlap, which would be having 6 crits out of 14 hits with at least 1 non-crit in between each hit, but it would be unlikely. My idea though is that you have a series of 12 on/offs, with the 2 extra offs dispersed throughout...so sum(0to13) possible extra dispersions/16384 total permutations=.55% chance. That's just a guess.
My question though, is more, in what order could should you use abilities. Your idea of saving bloodthirst is interesting. Let's talk about it. Since the main point of bloodthirst is to get you enraged (let's ignore RB for a second), would you have better uptime if you waited a GCD to hit it again after it came off cooldown, then try CS, and if neither procs, throw out Berserker Rage? Show me some numbers, man.
so what is the conclusion of all this? What am i supposed to learn from all that? I'm not trying to be negative here but if your "study" isn't about getting the highest dps, what would we learn from having the most enrage uptime? And btw, CS crits also cause enrage.
Well, Oscar, (ok, starting to feel backed into a corner here) honestly, it was just an attempt to learn more about enrage. One thing I've seen this expansion is that Warrior dps largely revolves around managing enrage uptime, so, since I'm new to theorycrafting and couldn't find any specific posts about it, I decided to start one to learn from the better players out there. In short, fury dps revolves around being enraged, so we might want to understand how it works rather than just following a recommended rotation. There are hundreds of comments in the main sticky on best weapons, trinkets, and how to manage your colossus smash rotation, but none that outline how uptime actually works.
Hopefully if some math or statistics prone people add their two cents here, we can all understand the game more, and incorporate what we've learned into Bloodthirst-Filler-Filler.
man sorry if i really sounded negative but that's just what I felt. But yeah, I'm not much of a number crunching person so my only input was CS causing enrage, didn't see that in your first post so there's a few seconds there.
First of all, keep going down this path and others like it, Freckles(that's what I'll call you from now on since you left the second S off your name). People like you have discovered new ways of doing things and been successful - locks in previous expansions have had turn-arounds in theorycrafting.
I'm not saying you definitely are or are not onto something, but worst case scenario, you get proven wrong.
Now on to the actual point - correct me if I'm wrong, but something to consider - pushing back Bloodthirst also causes you to lose potential Raging Blows, and you need to do math to consider whether losing a Raging Blow is worth 10% increased damage on weaker abilities for a few seconds. My guess is not, but I just took a Finance final exam this morning, so I'm in no mood to run numbers.
One thing I've seen this expansion is that Warrior dps largely revolves around managing enrage uptime, so, since I'm new to theorycrafting and couldn't find any specific posts about it, I decided to start one to learn from the better players out there. In short, fury dps revolves around being enraged, so we might want to understand how it works rather than just following a recommended rotation. There are hundreds of comments in the main sticky on best weapons, trinkets, and how to manage your colossus smash rotation, but none that outline how uptime actually works.
I'd suggest that while, yes, being enraged is an important factor of fury dps, it is but one component. Becoming enraged, ie the action of a BT or CS crit that enables the use of a Raging Blow and generates an extra 10 rage, is just as much a factor, though one has to look at each spec individually for a proper comparison. But for example for TG Raging Blow hits slightly more than twice as hard as wild strike, meaning it has approximately 6 times better damage per rage than an unprocced wild strike and 2 times that of a bloodsurge wild strike, nearly 3 times better damage per rage than a heroic strike. For this reason I'd never ever push back bloodthirst as long as I was a) still interested in using raging blow as a filler (so not during execute range colossus smash) b) I didn't already have two raging blow charges.
Regarding my first query about modelling enrage overlapping, I'd certainly not advocate delaying BT to avoid overlapping enrage debuffs if one were trying to get higher enrage uptime, I was just questioning the accuracy of the model; if you delay the bloodthirst until enrage has fallen off and then it doesn't crit, and you don't have CS or BR available you have to wait a full 4.5 seconds until you can possibly become enraged again, whereas if you risk clipping the last 1.5 seconds of enrage by using BT on cooldown you only have to wait 3 seconds.
And the other key component is how warriors are so highly dependent on proper cooldown stacking, as we have so many which turn our damage profile into a series of bursts and luls. With Colossus smash being approximately 40% damage bonus, bloodbath 30%, skull banner turning 206% crits into 226% crits, and recklessness, not every second or gcd of the fight is created equal, and ensuring high rage and enrage uptime for these burst moments in particular is key.
The fury priority system as outlined in numerous fury guides has come about primarily based on these principles: maximising rage and raging blow charge generation, and getting the most out of each colossus smash and related cooldowns. Perhaps I'm being short-sighted but I can't see what aiming for maximal enrage uptime would add to this, and I'm rather wary of that approach; glyph of recklessness has frequently been suggested by posters on this forum as a dps gain due to it guaranteeing an extra 6 seconds of enrage uptime per recklessness cd for example, and this is obviously the case, and simming with glyph of reck shows higher enrage uptime, and extra raging blow usage, over simming without. But it still results in a dps loss, due to losing 20% crit on every ability other than bloodthirst during the key burst windows of colossus smash, bloodbath and skullbanner.