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  1. #1
    Bloodsail Admiral Shadee's Avatar
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    U.S. to become biggest oil producer

    http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/12/news...rgy/index.html

    So with all our advances in drilling technology, the U.S. will be the #1 oil producer by 2020. Manufacturing will return and our economy will boom. The future is looking bright my fellow Americans.

  2. #2
    The Insane Reeve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shadee View Post
    http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/12/news...rgy/index.html

    So with all our advances in drilling technology, the U.S. will be the #1 oil producer by 2020. Manufacturing will return and our economy will boom. The future is looking bright my fellow Americans.
    We'll still be net importers of oil though. We really need to reduce our consumption so that we aren't reliant on crappy regimes overseas.

    Full disclosure: I work in the oil industry.
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  3. #3
    Solar power is projected to supply all of humanity's energy needs in 2030. The amount of solar power is experiencing accelerating returns. Lightspeed advances in solar technology is causing humanities solar power generating capacity to double every 2 years.

    Consider:

    1. solar panel prices are plummeting
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47043457.../#.UOb0fm-x8YB
    2. the cost of power modules have decreased 75% just in the last 3 years.
    https://www.bnef.com/PressReleases/view/216
    3. efficiency is up to a record 40.8% on the last tech.
    http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2008/625.html

    The US becoming the #1 oil producer in 2020 doesn't mean much when solar is going to make it largely obsolete a few years later.

    Among the radical changes we will see due to this is:

    1. The end of the modern oil industry.
    2. The end of arabian oil powers.
    3. The end of global warming / climate change.
    Last edited by Grummgug; 2013-01-04 at 03:28 PM.

  4. #4
    The Insane Reeve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grummgug View Post
    Solar power is projected to supply all of humanity's energy needs in 2030. The amount of solar power is experiencing accelerating returns. Lightspeed advances in solar technology is causing humanities solar power generating capacity to double every 2 years.

    Consider:

    1. solar panel prices are plummeting
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47043457.../#.UOb0fm-x8YB
    2. the cost of power modules have decreased 75% just in the last 3 years.
    https://www.bnef.com/PressReleases/view/216
    3. efficiency is up to a record 40.8% on the last tech.
    http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2008/625.html

    The US becoming the #1 oil producer in 2020 doesn't mean much when solar is going to make it largely obsolete a few years later.
    Who the hell is projecting that? Solar panels can't solve problems with intermittancy, they're highly inefficient, very expensive, and not very environmentally friendly. Even if the price drops and efficiency improves, that still doesn't deal with intermittancy issues, unless you can figure out how to price-effectively mass produce electrical grid-level batteries. Even then, it doesn't solve issues with mobile power.

    Solar is a LONG way off from being able to supply 100% of the world's energy needs. It certainly won't by 2030.
    Go and tell my baby sister
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  5. #5
    It's all nice and dandy, until oil reserves run dry.

  6. #6
    Bloodsail Admiral Shadee's Avatar
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    lulz @ solar, sorry but no

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Reeve View Post
    Who the hell is projecting that? Solar panels can't solve problems with intermittancy, they're highly inefficient, very expensive, and not very environmentally friendly. Even if the price drops and efficiency improves, that still doesn't deal with intermittancy issues, unless you can figure out how to price-effectively mass produce electrical grid-level batteries. Even then, it doesn't solve issues with mobile power.

    Solar is a LONG way off from being able to supply 100% of the world's energy needs. It certainly won't by 2030.
    A lot of people are projecting this. The exponential growth in solar power is quite evident.

    It meets about 1% of our power needs today. It met 0.5% of our power needs 2 years ago. It met 0.25% of our power needs 4 years ago.

    2 years from now, it will meet 2%. 4 years from now, 4%, 6 years from now, 8%, 8 years from now 16%. 10 years from now, 32%. 12 years from now, 64%.

    Its coming. A lot of people find it difficult to grasp exponential growth in an industry but its quite clear what is happening. What is likely to occur is around 2020, we will solar begin to make DEEP inroads in everyday life. People will begin to clearly see the trend by then. By 2030, we will all laugh at the notion of an energy crisis. Our energy problems will be solved forever. We're just advancing as a species. We'll look back at energy crisis like we do at having to take conestoga wagons for months to cross North America.

    I don't think people will take solar seriously until 2020. They won't see how much of an impact it is having until then. But we are VERY close.

  8. #8
    The Insane Reeve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grummgug View Post
    A lot of people are projecting this. The exponential growth in solar power is quite evident.

    It meets about 1% of our power needs today. It met 0.5% of our power needs 2 years ago. It met 0.25% of our power needs 4 years ago.

    2 years from now, it will meet 2%. 4 years from now, 4%, 6 years from now, 8%, 8 years from now 16%. 10 years from now, 32%. 12 years from now, 64%.

    Its coming. A lot of people find it difficult to grasp exponential growth in an industry but its quite clear what is happening. What is likely to occur is around 2020, we will solar begin to make DEEP inroads in everyday life. People will begin to clearly see the trend by then. By 2030, we will all laugh at the notion of an energy crisis. Our energy problems will be solved forever. We're just advancing as a species. We'll look back at energy crisis like we do at having to take conestoga wagons for months to cross North America.
    You know, people often call me the most optimistic person they've ever met, but even I'm not that optimistic. Again, you're going to run into huge issues with intermittent energy generation, and we simply don't have the storage capacity to deal with that. That's only one of many many issues with solar. Also, just because an industry is doubling every year now doesn't mean the maturity of its growth curve is at 100%. For solar, it's very likely that the maturity is far far less than 100%.
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  9. #9
    What will happen with solar power is very much like what happened with the internet. In 1990, very few people ever heard of the internet. By 2000, the internet was EVERYWHERE. A whole new technology. Fully integrated into society in just 10 years. Or take cell phones. Cell phones were a novelty in 1985. By 1995, they had exploded as a technology and were everywhere.

    This is actually quite typical. New technologies burst on the scene and integrate into our lives on an exponential scale. In 1990, you'd have laughed at the notion of an internet by 2000. In 1985, you'd have laughed at cell phones being everywhere by 1995. But these things did happen. It will happen AGAIN, this time with solar power.

    We can see the same exponential growth as we saw with the internet and cell phones. We can project out how long it will take. It should take about 15-20 years from where we are right now. Heck, that's almost twice the time that the internet or cell phones had. So I guess you could say its slower, sure.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadee View Post
    lulz @ solar, sorry but no
    Kinda funny how you're "lulzing" over renewable energy when your projected high profits fall dangerously close to the oil reserves running dry.
    GG logic.

  11. #11
    Bloodsail Admiral Shadee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Volas View Post
    Kinda funny how you're "lulzing" over renewable energy when your projected high profits fall dangerously close to the oil reserves running dry.
    GG logic.
    We have enough gas to last at least 300 years. The reserves aren't drying up any time soon brah.

  12. #12
    The Insane Reeve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grummgug View Post
    What will happen with solar power is very much like what happened with the internet. In 1990, very few people ever heard of the internet. By 2000, the internet was EVERYWHERE. A whole new technology. Fully integrated into society in just 10 years. Or take cell phones. Cell phones were a novelty in 1985. By 1995, they had exploded as a technology and were everywhere.

    This is actually quite typical. New technologies burst on the scene and integrate into our lives on an exponential scale. In 1990, you'd have laughed at the notion of an internet by 2000. In 1985, you'd have laughed at cell phones being everywhere by 1995. But these things did happen. It will happen AGAIN, this time with solar power.

    We can see the same exponential growth as we saw with the internet and cell phones. We can project out how long it will take. It should take about 15-20 years from where we are right now. Heck, that's almost twice the time that the internet or cell phones had. So I guess you could say its slower, sure.
    The difference is that cell towers and cell phones work anywhere in the world they're installed, all the time. Unfortunately, we only have sunlight on half the given world at any given time, and it's attenuated by cloud cover as well, of which the Earth has quite a lot.
    Go and tell my baby sister
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  13. #13
    From recent news I have seen they are getting close to Solar "films" which can be put on basically anything. Windows, Shingles, and even in Paint. If that becomes a reality I can see demand for oil and coal based energy falling sharply. Even then though the issue of Transportation still remains. We need to find a reliable, clean and renewable fuel source for vehicles as well.

    Even than many products like plastics etc. are still oil based and the need for oil will always be there. Though hopefully in a smaller scale.

  14. #14
    The Lightbringer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shadee View Post
    lulz @ solar, sorry but no
    Riveting argument.

    Personally i'm on the fence about Solar power. As stated the intermittancy is an issue, and i'm not certain how we can cleanly and effectively store energy reserves for solar. I'm really not a huge fan of finite power sources for obvious reasons. But i can't see us moving completely away from oil in just 17 years. We would already need to be well on the way to reach 100% in such a short period of time.

    What ever happened to hydro electricity? I recall at one point buoy's that generated power as the ocean moves. This was a neat concept that i guess didn't really catch on.

    In the end I would love to see oil end and each country be independent in it's energy needs. War over resources that are essential for daily living should be archaic by now.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Grummgug View Post
    It meets about 1% of our power needs today. It met 0.5% of our power needs 2 years ago. It met 0.25% of our power needs 4 years ago.

    2 years from now, it will meet 2%. 4 years from now, 4%, 6 years from now, 8%, 8 years from now 16%. 10 years from now, 32%. 12 years from now, 64%.
    Flawed system of projection is flawed. Lets say I own 1 vehicle now, and 2 years in the future decide our family needs a second one. That doesn't mean in 4 years I am going to get 2 more cars.
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  16. #16
    #1 Oil Producer by 2020?

    That only gives you 7 years to try to invade...I mean..declare "democracy" on a few more countries.

    Infracted: Please refrain from stereotyping on the level of nations, it's considered nation bashing and is against the rules.
    Last edited by Wikiy; 2013-01-04 at 08:10 PM.
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  17. #17
    The Insane Reeve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WarFalcon1 View Post
    From recent news I have seen they are getting close to Solar "films" which can be put on basically anything. Windows, Shingles, and even in Paint. If that becomes a reality I can see demand for oil and coal based energy falling sharply. Even then though the issue of Transportation still remains. We need to find a reliable, clean and renewable fuel source for vehicles as well.

    Even than many products like plastics etc. are still oil based and the need for oil will always be there. Though hopefully in a smaller scale.
    Very little electrical generation is done with Oil. The vast majority is Coal or Natural Gas.
    Go and tell my baby sister
    Not to do what I have done
    Go and spurn that house down in New Orleans
    They call the Rising Sun

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Kathandira View Post
    Riveting argument.

    Personally i'm on the fence about Solar power. As stated the intermittancy is an issue, and i'm not certain how we can cleanly and effectively store energy reserves for solar. I'm really not a huge fan of finite power sources for obvious reasons. But i can't see us moving completely away from oil in just 17 years. We would already need to be well on the way to reach 100% in such a short period of time.

    What ever happened to hydro electricity? I recall at one point buoy's that generated power as the ocean moves. This was a neat concept that i guess didn't really catch on.

    In the end I would love to see oil end and each country be independent in it's energy needs. War over resources that are essential for daily living should be archaic by now.
    Tidal/Wave Power is still being worked on. Just like most new techs the problem with it is efficiency and cost. Hopefully they will overcome those.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reeve View Post
    Very little electrical generation is done with Oil. The vast majority is Coal or Natural Gas.
    Right which is why I don't think Solar, even if it becomes more efficient and cheaper, will have a major impact on Oil needs.
    Last edited by WarFalcon1; 2013-01-04 at 03:57 PM.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadee View Post
    We have enough gas to last at least 300 years. The reserves aren't drying up any time soon brah.
    wow. just wow.
    ~

  20. #20
    Everyone keeps saying that we don't have the tech to store that solar power. I'm thinking about hydrogen production trough electrolisys of water and storing the liquid hydrogen. All of this can be done with enough solar generated power.

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