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  1. #221
    I think there will be a decline. Certainly not the mass exodus we saw during Cata but WoW is growing older. Its been out what 8 years now? People are getting burned out especially when instead of making stuff more challenging they keep making it easier. I think one reason a game like Everquest, though a lot smaller, has held on to a lot of its veterans is because the content they release is always challenging and they dont dumb it down so Average Joe can do it. When games become too easy they become less fun. Dont believe me? If you play Madden or other sports games edit all your player stats to be 100 and then turn down all the computer AI. Sure you will beat teams by 100 but after a few days its just boring. Adding games like pokemon and challenge modes isnt going to keep players around. Those are geared towards casuals and they are the ones that will leave a game usually before the dedicated veteran will. Keeping more content relevant is the only way to keep more players around. Adding more BG maps, at least one per major content patch, will keep more players around. Adding a bunch more dailies that are boring as hell to grind out isnt going to keep people around.

  2. #222
    Predicting the game will be under 9 million subs, if they even announce the number at all.
    WoW having more subs than SWTOR is the same thing as Justin Bieber having more youtube plays than Tupac. Just because its more popular doesn't mean its good.
    Warcraft Lore has gone from one of the most vast and interesting stories in all of gaming to a bad Thrall Fanfic by Chris Metzen.
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  3. #223
    Legendary! TJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Of course you are right.

    People forgot that 9.1 million was really an exceptional situation back in June 2012 and the launch of MoP brought it back up.

    - 1. Diablo 3 launched a few weeks earlier, selling an unseen 10 million PC copies (world record) in the same Blizzard stable.
    - 2. WOW didn't have a content update at the time of 6 months.
    - 3. Summertime always has a lot less activity.
    - 4. The newer kids on the block were still green and shiny (well SW TOR's grass was already turning yellow ish and GW2 was supposed to cure cancer).

    In no way subscriptions will fall throughout the winter with 500K numbers UNLESS China is smoked under in their fog problems and players no longer find the way to their internet cafés...

    Long story short: where would these players even go to ? All Lores are already used up in the last 5 years...
    You make it sound like they MUST play an MMO, some people just stop playing, you know. I for one stopped playing WoW and have played more of other games with my free time, I've never thought that I must play an MMO every step of my life. But for me, personally, it will most likely always be WoW or nothing in terms of playing mmo's.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-22 at 01:39 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by JhanZ View Post
    People expecting a dip in subs have no idea what they are talking about.

    Dip in subs in Cata happened because of a clear content void. They've clearly given players something to do this expac, either subs stay still or rise up.
    I'm also going to play "the game is getting old" card. Some people move on and that's just how it is. Whilst you can have your opinion, to literally say there is no chance at all for the sub's to decline is a little bit on the stupid side.
    Last edited by TJ; 2013-01-22 at 01:40 AM.

  4. #224
    Legendary! TJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    ...I stand corrected on my assumption. My bad. :P

    Well written... and thanks, because I think similarly to you how you are portrayed here - and this makes me even more wary of trying MoP.
    I would never let what people say on MMO Champ influence if I try a WoW expansion, personally. I have more of try it yourself approach, not to mention that a lot of people on here will complain about anything (to be as vague as possible).

  5. #225
    They'll report subscription revenue, but probably aren't forced to report a total subscriber count. They do it when it looks impressive. Mostly we're looking at a comparison of this quarter to the same quarter last year. I believe that's the quarter in which Dragon Soul was released. I personally feel like more people were playing the game back then, but that might just be my skewed perception since I don't often log in anymore. Everyone I know who decided to quit out of boredom and/or over the dailies issue has done so months ago. My random prediction will be a 700,000 subscriber drop since MoP release, if the subscriber numbers are announced at all.

  6. #226
    Quote Originally Posted by TJ View Post
    You make it sound like they MUST play an MMO, some people just stop playing, you know. I for one stopped playing WoW and have played more of other games with my free time, I've never thought that I must play an MMO every step of my life. But for me, personally, it will most likely always be WoW or nothing in terms of playing mmo's
    Gotta agree with this. When I quit WoW for a few months during Cata, along with the other 3 million or so people, I tried other games. I never saw a noticeable increase in players in any of them so it wasnt like they were going to other games. Also SWToR I dont think gained many people by going F2play and I go back to GW2 a few days every now and then the cities are ghost towns. Also Diablo 3 is lucky if they still have 1/10th of their box sales as terrible as that game turned out. I just think people are getting tired of MMOs. Been playing them for almost 15 years now. Thats probably longer than a lot of WoW players have even been alive.

  7. #227
    Between 500K and 1M drop.

    Dailies hurted more than people realize. Many people are still attached to annual pass though. If they keep the current direction with dailies, more will drop for the next one.

    Overall revenue will be up. Several pets and mounts, and people now buy more pets because there is actually something to be done with them.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-21 at 10:57 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by JhanZ View Post
    People expecting a dip in subs have no idea what they are talking about.

    Dip in subs in Cata happened because of a clear content void. They've clearly given players something to do this expac, either subs stay still or rise up.
    Dips in initial Cata were because of bad tuning. GC even made a blog about it. Lack of content wasnt an issue untill mid 4.1.

    Dailies have made several hundres of thousands people unsub. CRZ made another part quit.

    IMO oyu dont know what you are talking about.
    Last edited by Crashdummy; 2013-01-22 at 02:00 AM.

  8. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lilly32 View Post
    I go back to GW2 a few days every now and then the cities are ghost towns.

    Lion's Arch is in overflow from 6 am to Midnight 7 days a week on just about every server. No one hangs out in the other cities.
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  9. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by Karizee View Post
    Lion's Arch is in overflow from 6 am to Midnight 7 days a week on just about every server. No one hangs out in the other cities.
    Why is that?
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  10. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chickat View Post
    Why is that?
    Portal hub & Dungeon token vendors.
    Last edited by Karizee; 2013-01-22 at 02:29 AM.
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  11. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Galaddriel View Post
    Dec. 24th - just in time to save the 4th qtr numbers.
    Yep the good old Fluff like SOR, AP, RAF discounts etc

  12. #232
    Quote Originally Posted by Karizee View Post
    Lion's Arch is in overflow from 6 am to Midnight 7 days a week on just about every server. No one hangs out in the other cities.
    Didnt know that was wondering where everyone was lol. Gonna hop over there while waiting for my dungeon queue to pop and see whats what.

  13. #233
    Maybe they'll announce a goddamn expansion that actually continues in WOTLK's excellent footsteps that doesn't a: resurrect a dead boss killed in Warcarft 2 and revived in kanaak's terrible work b: build its lore on the most obscure and retarded 5 minute appearance in Warcraft history.

  14. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtua View Post
    Down to 9 million subs. I think people underestimate the amount of folks that buy an expansion just for the leveling content.
    ^This.

    Probably flat or a slight decline.

    I ran into a alot of people(like me) who bought the xp and leveled up thier favorite toons and totally enjoyed it. Then the grind set in and we said don't think so. See ya next expansion.
    But on a positive note. It was a really good expansion.
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  15. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJ View Post
    You make it sound like they MUST play an MMO, some people just stop playing, you know. I for one stopped playing WoW and have played more of other games with my free time, I've never thought that I must play an MMO every step of my life. But for me, personally, it will most likely always be WoW or nothing in terms of playing mmo's.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-22 at 01:39 AM ----------



    I'm also going to play "the game is getting old" card. Some people move on and that's just how it is. Whilst you can have your opinion, to literally say there is no chance at all for the sub's to decline is a little bit on the stupid side.
    And to have an argument based on "the game is old" is stupid. Considering the game today isn't close at all to the game of 2004. It's constantly changing and they've improved the beginner experience. People leave due to being burned out, and then people also join due to discovering what an amazing game it is.

    You're going to have to use a better argument then "this game is old" because I've clearly outlined why they aren't going to lose subs and WHY they lost them the first time.

  16. #236
    Quote Originally Posted by Alastaircrawly View Post
    Yep the good old Fluff like SOR, AP, RAF discounts etc
    Let's not forget the lack of bots being banned. Blizzard is a great fluffer!
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  17. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by JhanZ View Post
    And to have an argument based on "the game is old" is stupid. Considering the game today isn't close at all to the game of 2004. It's constantly changing and they've improved the beginner experience. People leave due to being burned out, and then people also join due to discovering what an amazing game it is.

    You're going to have to use a better argument then "this game is old" because I've clearly outlined why they aren't going to lose subs and WHY they lost them the first time.
    No, it really isn't. Many people hop ships to another game (like GW2) because the graphics are much better, WoW is more than clearly dated in the current year, just compare it to other games. No, this isn't the reason everyone quits but it's a factor for some people. To call it an argument as well is funny, I'm just stating how this influences why some people leave and it most definitely does.

    You've clearly outlined why you think they won't lose subs, just because you're having a good time doesn't mean everyone else is. Seems like you're basing it off personal experience which is quite ironic when you say my reason is stupid. You might like dailies, pet battles, or whatever else they've implemented to attempt to keep people busy, but other people won't, and that's why there's always a chance for them to lose players.

  18. #238
    Quote Originally Posted by daltron View Post
    Interesting majority thinking decline.
    Not too surprising, since a fraction of people will just play a bit after an expansion releases and leave until the next expansion. It would be remarkable if subs didn't decline. I also expect the grindy nature of MoP will have taken its toll.

    The real test of the staying power of the game may be Q1 and Q2 of 2013.
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  19. #239
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    Fairly large drop in subs, Mists is a great expansion to me, but it's upset a hell of a lot of people.
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  20. #240
    2 Mil DROP

    Reasons:

    -Post xpac bump over.
    -No Asia launch xpac bump to fail back on, first worldwide release.
    -Last annual passes are up
    -Content Drought, Daillies, CRZ, color of Jania's hair, color of the sky, pissed in your Wheaties this mourning, Ghostcrawler is a terrorist sleeper agent from Mars...you pick.
    -I just got a feeling on this number.
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