Page 16 of 68 FirstFirst ...
6
14
15
16
17
18
26
66
... LastLast
  1. #301
    Deleted
    I obviously didn't express myself clearly enough. Six years ago the WoW numbers were a topic for Vivendi shareholders and for those WoW was an afterthought. Now they are a topic for Activision Blizzard shareholders and WoW is easily their most important IP. Investors didn't move as there was no reason to move, WoW revenues (and subscriptions) were within expectations. If sub numbers spike or drop sharply, you will see it in ATVI stock price.

  2. #302
    Quote Originally Posted by Beefhamer View Post
    And again, WoW had it's worst year in its history and it did not phase investors at all. You are placing way too much emphasis on sub numbers.
    During this year ATVI performed well due the release of D3, COD, Skylanders and MOP it is when they do not have major releases to fall back on that investors will start to worry that WOW is not retaining subscribers.

  3. #303
    Quote Originally Posted by Beefhamer View Post
    And again, WoW had it's worst year in its history and it did not phase investors at all.
    This is not true. I was watching the real time after-market quote during the Q3 2011 earnings call. As soon as Morhaime said active accounts were down 800K, the stock took a substantial hit.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "The bit about hardcore players not always caring about the long term interests of the game is spot on." -- Ghostcrawler
    "Do you want a game with no casuals so about 500 players?"

  4. #304
    Quote Originally Posted by Heresy View Post
    Hard to say.

    Christmas and China might bring it a bit up.
    But 5.1 brought nothing to the table for the raiders who have finished the current tier 2-3 months ago. Except more daily quests and reps to grind, which generally people seem to dislike.

    The Annual pass started Oct/Nov 2011 and new sign ups ended April/May 2012. Depending on when the 1.2 million signed up (most likely the majority did so during Oct-Dec), I would expect some of them to be glad they can finally stop their sub without losing D3 f.ex. (Me being one of them personally. My annual pass expired in Dec 2012.)

    Some also dislike the Chinese-ish setting of the game. But doubtful this amount of players would have any substantial impact.

    Edit:

    Also, got games like Guild Wars 2, The Secret World (went F2P, might have attracted some), SW:TOR (went F2P, might have attracted some). But this is also a difficult number to put a finger on. Some play both F2P and Sub-based games at the same time.
    Yeah this one is probably the most difficult to call as there are so many variables both positive and negative. I have a feeling that the negative points you mention are not really going to bite until Q1 this year but most of my optimism is based on WOW China subs, if I'm honest this is based on a feeling rather than any hard evidence.

  5. #305
    Spam Assassin! MoanaLisa's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Tralfamadore
    Posts
    32,405
    Undoubtedly, and with no real question, there will be enough subscribers reported that I can 99.9999% guarantee that we'll all be here in another three months posting in pretty much the same sort of thread. So I'm good until then.

    See ya in 3 months!
    "...money's most powerful ability is to allow bad people to continue doing bad things at the expense of those who don't have it."

  6. #306
    1. The subs will go down
    Evidence : They are reducing the daily / valor / rep all grindy things

    2. Not too much
    Evidence : None of the patches are really groundbreakingly different from the launch directions

  7. #307
    Quote Originally Posted by Heresy View Post
    But 5.1 brought nothing to the table for the raiders who have finished the current tier 2-3 months ago.
    This is a negligibly small number of players, literally down in the rounding error of the figures they give out.

    (Unless by "finished their current tier" you include all the people who just gave up.)
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "The bit about hardcore players not always caring about the long term interests of the game is spot on." -- Ghostcrawler
    "Do you want a game with no casuals so about 500 players?"

  8. #308
    Most of the playerbase don't raid or pvp fyi so the subs are clearly up or even by now.

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-07 at 01:09 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastaircrawly View Post
    Yep the good old Fluff like SOR, AP, RAF discounts etc
    Your a very sad person i feel sorry for you if you think there fluffing things up.

  9. #309
    Quote Originally Posted by mikencarly View Post
    Most of the playerbase don't raid or pvp fyi so the subs are clearly up or even by now.

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-07 at 01:09 AM ----------

    Your a very sad person i feel sorry for you if you think there fluffing things up.
    Wow what a drama queen

  10. #310
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    This is not true. I was watching the real time after-market quote during the Q3 2011 earnings call. As soon as Morhaime said active accounts were down 800K, the stock took a substantial hit.
    I think the point being made is there wasn't mass exodus of investors dropping their stakes in ATVI due to only one of many many many many factors involved in determining if the return on investment is worth sticking with the company. There is more to ATVI than Wow subscription numbers and even with significant subscription losses ATVI was still able to turn a profit and keep investors happy. The very fact that ATVI didn't crash and burn the second they lost 3 million subscribers is a testament to the stability and long term viability of the company as a whole which is all shareholders care about. They don't give a fuck about the minutia that Wow players are constantly incessantly whining about.

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-06 at 10:31 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Yeah this one is probably the most difficult to call as there are so many variables both positive and negative. I have a feeling that the negative points you mention are not really going to bite until Q1 this year but most of my optimism is based on WOW China subs, if I'm honest this is based on a feeling rather than any hard evidence.
    I find it rather hilarious that people are already starting in on the whole "this quarter doesn't matter it is the next one that is important" before the numbers are even out yet. A preemptive strike isn't going to make the nonsense any less idiotic.

  11. #311
    I am Murloc! Conscious's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    South Boston, MA.
    Posts
    5,652
    Conservative estimate: Down to 9.7 Million

  12. #312
    Lost about 750k subs

  13. #313
    I just hope they announce Ghostcrawler's resignation.

  14. #314
    Quote Originally Posted by ihyln View Post
    I just hope they announce Ghostcrawler's resignation.
    this lol ^^

  15. #315
    Not to shoot down the optimists, but it will definitely WON'T be a gain, that's for sure. Every time they have had a gain, they usually announce it 1-2 weeks AFTER the quarter ends, way before the conference call.

    As I said in a prior thread - I'm guestimating 200-500k lost... this is, of course, not taking into consideration the seemingly massive hate-impact that CRZ has generated... so that number could be much higher.

    EDIT: This is also excluding the fact that MoP released end of September. This is the first time an expansion was far out of the xmas window... and many players might've dumped their WoW game, even temporarily, for a new X-mas release.



    ---------- Post added 2013-02-07 at 04:22 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Beefhamer View Post
    I am kind of hoping they do not release any sub numbers to spite all the haters. I could be wrong all they need to do is post actual financial information and what their direction to continue being profitable. I am sure they can leave out Sub numbers. Wouldn't it be funny if tomorrow came and went and we still have no idea what the sub count is. :P
    You think that will stop the so-called "haters"? Hell, it would probably create more as people would be asking "So... WHY are they hiding their sub numbers then? They got to be REALLY bad if they don't want to announce them!" :P
    Last edited by mvaliz; 2013-02-07 at 04:24 AM.

  16. #316
    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    Not to shoot down the optimists, but it will definitely WON'T be a gain, that's for sure. Every time they have had a gain, they usually announce it 1-2 weeks AFTER the quarter ends, way before the conference call.

    As I said in a prior thread - I'm guestimating 200-500k lost... this is, of course, not taking into consideration the seemingly massive hate-impact that CRZ has generated... so that number could be much higher.
    So your opinion on the sub numbers is partly based on a "pattern" you created and twisted?
    Also, there was a huge impact of heroics in Wrath being beyond easy yet it was the time with most subs. Negative feed-back doesn't equal sub count.
    Goodbye-Forever-MMO-Champ
    Quote Originally Posted by HighlordJohnstone View Post
    Alleria's whispers start climaxing

  17. #317
    Quote Originally Posted by Pebrocks The Warlock View Post
    So your opinion on the sub numbers is partly based on a "pattern" you created and twisted?
    Also, there was a huge impact of heroics in Wrath being beyond easy yet it was the time with most subs. Negative feed-back doesn't equal sub count.
    Sorry, didn't mean to offend you by you thinking (read: "twisting") that I'm dashing your hopes against the surf. :P

    Nope... I used something called "logic and reason" in conjunction with "Marketing experience" (which honestly has it's own weird insane "logic and reason" to it worthy of a Terry Pratchett novel...)

    Only one here who's twisting is you twisting what I wrote - do note I said it won't be a gain... This also means the subs could very well stand still at 10.6 or whatever it was back in September, as historically they don't announce null-gains/losses either.

    Don't need to "Create and twist" my own post to make me out into... what do you call them? "Haters?" :P

    EDIT: BTW - I'm one of those STRONG advocates who loved and cheered on that MoP went towards Wrath-heroics. That's actually half the reason I'm only predicting a 200-500k drop as they brought back a TON of the right Wrath stuff back.

    ...of course they implemented a few "derps" too (I'm looking at you CRZ...) but you get my point. :P
    Last edited by mvaliz; 2013-02-07 at 04:37 AM.

  18. #318
    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    Sorry, didn't mean to offend you by you thinking (read: "twisting") that I'm dashing your hopes against the surf. :P
    You're offending me by thinking you could actually offend me.
    Goodbye-Forever-MMO-Champ
    Quote Originally Posted by HighlordJohnstone View Post
    Alleria's whispers start climaxing

  19. #319
    LOL thousands aren't quiting because of crz only a retard would quit over something minor like crz.That or there Pc blows. Subs will be in the 10Million plus area up to 10.5 million.Around that area.
    Last edited by mikencarly; 2013-02-07 at 04:52 AM.

  20. #320
    What is with people being so obsessed about sub numbers? Jesus. These conference calls are information for shareholders, not some weird e-peen contest among players.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •