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  1. #301
    I am kind of hoping they do not release any sub numbers to spite all the haters. I could be wrong all they need to do is post actual financial information and what their direction to continue being profitable. I am sure they can leave out Sub numbers. Wouldn't it be funny if tomorrow came and went and we still have no idea what the sub count is. :P

  2. #302
    Quote Originally Posted by Beefhamer View Post
    I am kind of hoping they do not release any sub numbers to spite all the haters. I could be wrong all they need to do is post actual financial information and what their direction to continue being profitable. I am sure they can leave out Sub numbers. Wouldn't it be funny if tomorrow came and went and we still have no idea what the sub count is. :P
    Omitting to mention the sub numbers would send out a clear message that there has been major losses. And doing so to spite all the haters good god they are running a business not having a playground dispute.

  3. #303
    Immortal Arbs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beefhamer View Post
    I am kind of hoping they do not release any sub numbers to spite all the haters. I could be wrong all they need to do is post actual financial information and what their direction to continue being profitable. I am sure they can leave out Sub numbers. Wouldn't it be funny if tomorrow came and went and we still have no idea what the sub count is. :P
    Sadly that wont happen, Unless MMO-Champion decides to not post them than we all know that will start the conspiracy saying Blizzard is scare blah blah, So its better off just post them & get through the shit storm or have that day were it just a normal day and nothing as changed.

    Its one of the reasons I got over the sub numbers thing as it doesn't the game for me. People just get to worked up over nothing.
    Warlords of Draenor Releases: November 18th, 2014

  4. #304
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Omitting to mention the sub numbers would send out a clear message that there has been major losses. And doing so to spite all the haters good god they are running a business not having a playground dispute.
    Has every single conference call, even the ones before people started paying attention had sub info? I'm not too sure about that. They clearly stated huge losses before when they increased revenues during the same time. Yet that did nothing. Walls did not crumble and stockholders did not leave in exodus.

  5. #305
    I believe they will release the active account numbers, since Vivendi will want to know them, and Vivendi cannot be told without also telling the other shareholders. The easiest way to release them in a neutral manner is during the quarterly earnings event.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  6. #306
    I personally kind of expect a larger drop in accounts this time than the last time.

    The MOP WoW-factor has left a lot of people. There are lots of people fed up with LFR and daily quest grinds. Most of the 1.2 million people with active Annual Passes expired. Some of them probably only bought it to get D3/pet/beta access.

    Going to go out on a limb here and guesstimate around 8.3 mill active subs. Good case I would expect around 9, worst case 7.5 mill.

  7. #307
    Quote Originally Posted by Beefhamer View Post
    Has every single conference call, even the ones before people started paying attention had sub info? I'm not too sure about that. They clearly stated huge losses before when they increased revenues during the same time. Yet that did nothing. Walls did not crumble and stockholders did not leave in exodus.
    We are talking about an Activision Blizzard conference call here and Activision Blizzard is a newish construct. For Vivendi, WoW was one IP within that strange american videogames division, making nice profits but not exactly the core of the company. For Activision Blizzard however, the importance of WoW cannot possibly be overstated.

  8. #308
    Quote Originally Posted by thevoicefromwithin View Post
    We are talking about an Activision Blizzard conference call here and Activision Blizzard is a newish construct. For Vivendi, WoW was one IP within that strange american videogames division, making nice profits but not exactly the core of the company. For Activision Blizzard however, the importance of WoW cannot possibly be overstated.
    And again, WoW had it's worst year in its history and it did not phase investors at all. You are placing way too much emphasis on sub numbers.

  9. #309
    Quote Originally Posted by Heresy View Post
    I personally kind of expect a larger drop in accounts this time than the last time.

    The MOP WoW-factor has left a lot of people. There are lots of people fed up with LFR and daily quest grinds. Most of the 1.2 million people with active Annual Passes expired. Some of them probably only bought it to get D3/pet/beta access.

    Going to go out on a limb here and guesstimate around 8.3 mill active subs. Good case I would expect around 9, worst case 7.5 mill.
    There is no way they will that low in the last quarter we had Christmas, MOP has launched in China and 5.1 went live. With all these things I would expect at the very least for the subs to remain constant.

  10. #310
    I obviously didn't express myself clearly enough. Six years ago the WoW numbers were a topic for Vivendi shareholders and for those WoW was an afterthought. Now they are a topic for Activision Blizzard shareholders and WoW is easily their most important IP. Investors didn't move as there was no reason to move, WoW revenues (and subscriptions) were within expectations. If sub numbers spike or drop sharply, you will see it in ATVI stock price.

  11. #311
    Quote Originally Posted by Beefhamer View Post
    And again, WoW had it's worst year in its history and it did not phase investors at all. You are placing way too much emphasis on sub numbers.
    During this year ATVI performed well due the release of D3, COD, Skylanders and MOP it is when they do not have major releases to fall back on that investors will start to worry that WOW is not retaining subscribers.

  12. #312
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    There is no way they will that low in the last quarter we had Christmas, MOP has launched in China and 5.1 went live. With all these things I would expect at the very least for the subs to remain constant.
    Hard to say.

    Christmas and China might bring it a bit up.
    But 5.1 brought nothing to the table for the raiders who have finished the current tier 2-3 months ago. Except more daily quests and reps to grind, which generally people seem to dislike.

    The Annual pass started Oct/Nov 2011 and new sign ups ended April/May 2012. Depending on when the 1.2 million signed up (most likely the majority did so during Oct-Dec), I would expect some of them to be glad they can finally stop their sub without losing D3 f.ex. (Me being one of them personally. My annual pass expired in Dec 2012.)

    Some also dislike the Chinese-ish setting of the game. But doubtful this amount of players would have any substantial impact.

    Edit:

    Also, got games like Guild Wars 2, The Secret World (went F2P, might have attracted some), SW:TOR (went F2P, might have attracted some). But this is also a difficult number to put a finger on. Some play both F2P and Sub-based games at the same time.
    Last edited by Heresy; 2013-02-06 at 09:52 PM. Reason: Added some text.

  13. #313
    Quote Originally Posted by Beefhamer View Post
    And again, WoW had it's worst year in its history and it did not phase investors at all.
    This is not true. I was watching the real time after-market quote during the Q3 2011 earnings call. As soon as Morhaime said active accounts were down 800K, the stock took a substantial hit.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  14. #314
    Quote Originally Posted by Heresy View Post
    Hard to say.

    Christmas and China might bring it a bit up.
    But 5.1 brought nothing to the table for the raiders who have finished the current tier 2-3 months ago. Except more daily quests and reps to grind, which generally people seem to dislike.

    The Annual pass started Oct/Nov 2011 and new sign ups ended April/May 2012. Depending on when the 1.2 million signed up (most likely the majority did so during Oct-Dec), I would expect some of them to be glad they can finally stop their sub without losing D3 f.ex. (Me being one of them personally. My annual pass expired in Dec 2012.)

    Some also dislike the Chinese-ish setting of the game. But doubtful this amount of players would have any substantial impact.

    Edit:

    Also, got games like Guild Wars 2, The Secret World (went F2P, might have attracted some), SW:TOR (went F2P, might have attracted some). But this is also a difficult number to put a finger on. Some play both F2P and Sub-based games at the same time.
    Yeah this one is probably the most difficult to call as there are so many variables both positive and negative. I have a feeling that the negative points you mention are not really going to bite until Q1 this year but most of my optimism is based on WOW China subs, if I'm honest this is based on a feeling rather than any hard evidence.

  15. #315
    Moderator MoanaLisa's Avatar
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    Undoubtedly, and with no real question, there will be enough subscribers reported that I can 99.9999% guarantee that we'll all be here in another three months posting in pretty much the same sort of thread. So I'm good until then.

    See ya in 3 months!
    If you have anything to contribute to a thread topic, please do so. Discussing moderation or calling out specific people is against the rules and makes a post liable for an infraction. Please report problem posts. If anyone is unclear about the rules please read our FAQ. Thanks.

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  16. #316
    1. The subs will go down
    Evidence : They are reducing the daily / valor / rep all grindy things

    2. Not too much
    Evidence : None of the patches are really groundbreakingly different from the launch directions

  17. #317
    Quote Originally Posted by Heresy View Post
    But 5.1 brought nothing to the table for the raiders who have finished the current tier 2-3 months ago.
    This is a negligibly small number of players, literally down in the rounding error of the figures they give out.

    (Unless by "finished their current tier" you include all the people who just gave up.)
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  18. #318
    Most of the playerbase don't raid or pvp fyi so the subs are clearly up or even by now.

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-07 at 01:09 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastaircrawly View Post
    Yep the good old Fluff like SOR, AP, RAF discounts etc
    Your a very sad person i feel sorry for you if you think there fluffing things up.

  19. #319
    Quote Originally Posted by mikencarly View Post
    Most of the playerbase don't raid or pvp fyi so the subs are clearly up or even by now.

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-07 at 01:09 AM ----------

    Your a very sad person i feel sorry for you if you think there fluffing things up.
    Wow what a drama queen

  20. #320
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    This is not true. I was watching the real time after-market quote during the Q3 2011 earnings call. As soon as Morhaime said active accounts were down 800K, the stock took a substantial hit.
    I think the point being made is there wasn't mass exodus of investors dropping their stakes in ATVI due to only one of many many many many factors involved in determining if the return on investment is worth sticking with the company. There is more to ATVI than Wow subscription numbers and even with significant subscription losses ATVI was still able to turn a profit and keep investors happy. The very fact that ATVI didn't crash and burn the second they lost 3 million subscribers is a testament to the stability and long term viability of the company as a whole which is all shareholders care about. They don't give a fuck about the minutia that Wow players are constantly incessantly whining about.

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-06 at 10:31 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Yeah this one is probably the most difficult to call as there are so many variables both positive and negative. I have a feeling that the negative points you mention are not really going to bite until Q1 this year but most of my optimism is based on WOW China subs, if I'm honest this is based on a feeling rather than any hard evidence.
    I find it rather hilarious that people are already starting in on the whole "this quarter doesn't matter it is the next one that is important" before the numbers are even out yet. A preemptive strike isn't going to make the nonsense any less idiotic.

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