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  1. #1
    Pandaren Monk Mojo Risin's Avatar
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    February 7: Blizzard Conference Call

    http://www.blizzplanet.com/blog/comm...-on-feb-7-2013


    What do you think we'll learn?
    My predictions:

    • MoP has upped the subscription number to around 11 million, which has then suffered a small decline again to around 10.5 million, fluctuating between patches.
    • Blizzcon 2013 will be announced, and we'll receive a date for the event and for when tickets will go on sale.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Moderation Note for this thread:

    I'm going to post this here just so everyone is clear and newcomers to the thread will see it.

    Results are in: 9.6 million subscribers (-400K)

    This thread will remain open for your comments. New threads about the same thing will be closed. So that makes this the "official" thread (or as official as anything here is).


    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/activi...210500510.html
    Last edited by MoanaLisa; 2013-02-07 at 11:20 PM.
    "Good morning!" said Bilbo, and he meant it. The sun was shining, and the grass was very green. But Gandalf looked at him from under long bushy eyebrows that stuck out farther than the brim of his shady hat.

    "What do you mean?" he said. "Do you wish me a good morning, or mean that it is a good morning whether I want it or not; or that you feel good this morning; or that it is a morning to be good on?"

    "All of them at once," said Bilbo.

  2. #2
    Legendary! Destil's Avatar
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    I mean, maybe a small decline.

    I'm not expecting anything huge.

    They're still treating Mists like a very nice success so I doubt it's anything big.

    Hell, maybe there's even a God damn gain in subs.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Destil View Post
    I mean, maybe a small decline.

    I'm not expecting anything huge.

    They're still treating Mists like a very nice success so I doubt it's anything big.

    Hell, maybe there's even a God damn gain in subs.
    Pretty much any game with over 10 million players deserve to be treated like it's a big success XD

    I don't necessarily agree with OP though, I don't believe the amount of subscriptions dropped that much. To me MoP is a success, much more than Cata. Just sad that dailies & pandas are making it a bit less good, but it's not enough to make it substantially drop.

  4. #4
    200-500k sub drop. Possibly more due to MoP not being released during the Christmas season (meaning players would be anxious for other games around that time).

    Not to mention I believe CRZ still is a hated problem, at least for levelers - not the people in Pandaria.
    "Tell them only that the Lich King is dead... and that World of Warcraft... died with him..."

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    That's the ONLY reason you would post 9600 posts over 3 years: a mission of hate.

  5. #5
    I don't think subs will go over 10 million. The time that MoP got released was basically the only time they gained subs.

    My prediction is a drop of 400 - 700k subs

  6. #6
    Scarab Lord Granyala's Avatar
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    -1M subs, because it's near the end of a tier and many unsubbed till the next big patch comes out.

    Ifalna Sha'yoko on Twitter and Armory - Occasionally unfaithful to WoW with my Wizard- (ノಠ益ಠ)ノ彡┻━ ┻

  7. #7
    I'm prediction 10.7m subs and some information on Blizzard Dota.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tradewind View Post
    Funny story, my last gf was a lot younger than me, she kept calling me a pedophile. I was like "lol that's a big word for a 6 year old."
    Quote Originally Posted by Nixx View Post
    I asked my dog how it likes to be fucked and it said, "Ruff."

  8. #8
    Over 9000! Glorious Leader's Avatar
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    Dip in subs. How much remains to be seen.
    The hammer comes down:
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Normal should be reduced in difficulty. Heroic should be reduced in difficulty.
    And the tiny fraction for whom heroic raids are currently well tuned? Too bad,so sad! With the arterial bleed of subs the fastest it's ever been, the vanity development that gives you guys your own content is no longer supportable.

  9. #9
    I'm going to go crazy and say subs drop to 9.5 mil.

    Blizzcon announcement as well.

  10. #10
    Down to 9 million subs. I think people underestimate the amount of folks that buy an expansion just for the leveling content.

  11. #11
    The fact they announce it this early is a good sign for the group.

    Mostly it is around the last days of the previous month.

    The in game activity tools show a higher activity than this period last year and then the subs stood at 10.2 million.

    The sad fact is that Warcraft realm status tools depend on ... around 60 people worldwide, so they are of no use.

    My prediction is OVER 10 million active subscriptions and Blizzard as a group over 1.4 billion dollars revenue.

    The 9.1 million figure of the Quarter ending in June 2012 was only due to the Diablo launch in that quarter.

    The total Activision Blizzard group will come to around 4.9 billion dollars with a net reserve capital without debts of around 3.2 billion dollars.

    ---

    The "more than 10 million subscriptions" statement will come as a blow to every other MMORPG that had to turn to F2P trics and cash shops to survive.

    I don't see any competition in that field throughout 2013. Internally SC2 is no threath to WOW subscriptions and BAS will probably be promoted through WOW sub deals in the last days of 2013.

    No other information will be given as this is just some financial stuff and bookkeeping.
    Last edited by BenBos; 2013-01-19 at 12:47 AM.

  12. #12
    Brewmaster Chry's Avatar
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    Personally I think it's going to be under 10M, very interested to see.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    The fact they announce it this early is a good sign for the group.

    Mostly it is around the last days of the previous month.

    [snip]
    ...its roughly two weeks from today, dude... this wasn't an early announcement. They have always been around this time.
    "Tell them only that the Lich King is dead... and that World of Warcraft... died with him..."

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    That's the ONLY reason you would post 9600 posts over 3 years: a mission of hate.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    The fact they announce it this early is a good sign for the group.
    What are you talking about? They always hold their quarterly review around this time of the month.

    They should benefit from Christmas sales and China is anyone's guess but if WOW has held onto 10 million I'd say it has done well.

  15. #15
    Last update was 10 million+ so I doubt we get an accurate number. It'll either be the same number, a generic 'just under 10 mil' or '9 mil+'

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    ...its roughly two weeks from today, dude... this wasn't an early announcement. They have always been around this time.
    It is 3 weeks, not 2.

    This being said: the in game WoW activity is bigger than this time last year. But that doesn't take into account the China players.

    Blizzard will no longer play the decimal game like 10.2 or 10.1.

    My bet is that they will have a statement of "over 10 million subs" as the flow of the subs is no longer an issue for the in game players activity.

    CRZ solved that problem for good. 2 million or 10 million, world zones are now being populated all the time.

  17. #17
    They will just pick the highest subscription-count they had in the past 6 months and call it a gain.
    Why? Cause they gave us no real numbers last call and just want to put MoP in the best possible light.

  18. #18
    Scarab Lord Raiju's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    It is 3 weeks, not 2.

    This being said: the in game WoW activity is bigger than this time last year. But that doesn't take into account the China players.

    Blizzard will no longer play the decimal game like 10.2 or 10.1.

    My bet is that they will have a statement of "over 10 million subs" as the flow of the subs is no longer an issue for the in game players activity.

    CRZ solved that problem for good. 2 million or 10 million, world zones are now being populated all the time.
    If they announced CRZ being a massive success they might as well not make normal/heroic setting raids next expansion. Might as well just convert fully to the "casual" play 7 days a week hours per day to see story lifestyle that is dailies.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Falrach View Post
    They will just pick the highest subscription-count they had in the past 6 months and call it a gain.
    Why? Cause they gave us no real numbers last call and just want to put MoP in the best possible light.
    You obviously don't understand how conference calls work.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tradewind View Post
    Funny story, my last gf was a lot younger than me, she kept calling me a pedophile. I was like "lol that's a big word for a 6 year old."
    Quote Originally Posted by Nixx View Post
    I asked my dog how it likes to be fucked and it said, "Ruff."

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Falrach View Post
    They will just pick the highest subscription-count they had in the past 6 months and call it a gain.
    Why? Cause they gave us no real numbers last call and just want to put MoP in the best possible light.
    Hard to do when they need to give the information of the last Quarter ...

    You know these reports are being controlled by independant 3rd party auditors - like The Deutsche Bank.

    ATVI is a stock rated company and so ALL information given to stock holders has to be AUDITED by independant 3rd parties.

    That includes the full report and written conclusions. Can Morhaime lie ? Sure. But when proven he distributed wrong information to stock holders he is risking 20 years or more in jail...

    Some dudes got life sentences just 2 years ago.

    Last edited by BenBos; 2013-01-19 at 01:11 AM.

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