Jaak, while I respect and agree with your opinion that GW2 might not have staying power for a raider, I think you are looking at this solely as a raider. A very important fact you are missing in your analysis is that very very few people raid.
Right now wowprogress shows 37,270 10 man raids and 3,164 25 man raids for a total of 451,800 raiders. Round it up to 500,000. That's 5% of 10 million. So there is indeed a market, a HUGE market for a game like GW2 without raids.