2012 report: D3 sold 12 million copies

[Kelimbror]

I doubt it's that easy, more numbers on lackluster gear still doesn't solve the underlying issue that it's lackluster in the first place. The focus on primary stat excluding you from 60-80% of all loot drops in the first place, add on top of this the fact that AR becomes another must have stat and even more of that loot is useless, so it's not the existence of the AH that is at fault here, it only highlights the issue as it's so easy to brows for gear that is better than what you have due to the high percentage of useless items in the drop pool.

Again the while loot system is flawed at it's core, this was the biggest conceptual change from D2 with the skill system (that ties in to stats and loot), a gamble that went horribly wrong in their strive to make the game easier to develop while catering to the mass market. In short, they ripped the D2 soul out of the game when they tried to remake the loot system.

I don't disagree with any of that, but it's not like they're going to overhaul the system. I doubt they will change it in the expansions either. They might add to it, but I don't see them able to redesign the system from the ground up. They made the bed, now we have to be in it sort of thing. Which is one of the more tragic flaws in the system.

And I play a monk, so my solution would work perfectly to get me more rewarded with gear Any reist is AR. Too bad they let OWE go on for so long. They know removing it would basically destroy their game. They'll probably just wait for the xpac to redesign that.

[Redblade]

I don't disagree with any of that, but it's not like they're going to overhaul the system. I doubt they will change it in the expansions either. They might add to it, but I don't see them able to redesign the system from the ground up. They made the bed, now we have to be in it sort of thing. Which is one of the more tragic flaws in the system.

Which is why I don't see the game being fixed for people like my self, it's simply broken beyond repair, or at least financially viable repair as far as Blizzard is concerned. Good thing I have PoE to fill my ARPG need instead.

[Ravenblade]

Well imagine again, because TL2 is already LONG gone out of the Xfire hitparade and PoE is following it.

Diablo 3 has a pretty good 30% retention rate in new public group forming (patch 1.03) which happens to show IN game.

12.000.000 players and 30% retention of those public groups: anyone can count.

SO D3 is pretty much the standard and will stay so as I don't think the H&S genre is loved by the majority of MMO players anyway.

And if you look at the activity of the competitors dropping extremely fast over days (not even weeks) you'll realise people don't fall for indie products. Add the Blizzard LONG term support for any of its product and you'll see that D3 is the only one that will be played with decent numbers in the long run.

And in no way is the engine of D3 amateurish.

I want to remind you that 12 Million copies sold as of Dec 31 is an incredible number and be sure it is on its way to 13 million, if not even passed already.

I am curious about what defines retention rate for you and how you would measure that in D3 terms and especially give it a definite number such as 30%. Keep in mind the game is one-time buy game and as such its concurrency importance ranks as high as any one-time buy game.

I don't see how D3 is standard. As it stands it is a triple A title, the only triple A game in this genre. All competitor products so far are not and based their success on their own individual game designs which have their roots in games pre-dating D3. I don't see any other competitor product using as well, even Grim Dawn will be different. D3 achieved one thing: It liberalized the genre. It made it easier and gave breathing room for competitors enabling them to find their own formulas. Initially there was reluctant fear that Diablo 3 might overkill this genre and stamp out any opposition by covering all the demands in their entirety. But it did not. Which is a relief and a curse. A relief because it revived the genre but much in the same way as the mythical destruction of the Tower of Babel did for languages. A curse because now Diablo 3 is just one ARPG of many but without its initial gravitational factor in terms of preference of the predecessors and before since its release actually. It is not the definitive #1 choice of games to play as in PC game reference title.

I am not sure whether you can say with a definitive voice that Diablo 3 does not appeal to MMO players. The boldest campaign which Blizzard waged was among its own WoW playerbase that being an annual pass in return a "free" copy. It seems they wanted to appeal to the broad masses first even with the enormous waiting fanbase in the background. Seeing both games actually share design paradigms it's not completely provable nor disprovable that it does not appeal to MMO players, however the likelihood that it does is higher than that of its predecessors which shared mainly loose connections to traditional RPG games.

I did acknowledge Diablo 3's technological superiority when it comes to gameplay flow anyway. I also acknowledged its number of sales so I don't say what you are so defensive about. However going back to its technological side: it was never technology which propelled Blizzard games to the top of the legacy chain. Technology was never the primary key, it was their combination of advanced gameplay elements combined with polished presentation and accessibility. They were setting standards for over a decade and even when their home genres were stagnating their core games were still being played.

Can you honestly say the same happening for D3 in its current state in let's say 10 years from now on?

I am having my doubts to be honest - and no I don't think the competitors were made to beat D3 on equal footing anyway.
They were made to give the experience which D3 possibly couldn't thus sharing a market and in that they actually succeeded.

That D3 is a mass-product I have acknowledged as well but as I said that was one of Blizzard's controversial decisions to steer into that direction even if that was effectively not required. Even so that would have been fine as well if they had made any efforts to keep the groups who stuck with D2 for years and helped establishing that legacy it had in the first place. But they simply cut them off in the hope that Inferno mode will be everything and more than they actually need or want for a very long time. It was too much of a gamble on their side and bit by bit they have even admitted that.

I have come to the conclusion that both players and Blizzard have are coming to terms with their initial expectations and demands and with the reality that D3 is not what they wanted to be while acknowledging its commercial success nevertheless. However the core of its sales has happened around the times of its release which was about 10m around August 2012, now they have sold 2m more units since then. However I believe it's not a standalone success here. It's a classic case of biased sales. We will see the true fruits of our speculations once their expected expansion hits the shelves. It will be interesting to see where they are heading to.

[BenBos]

I am curious about what defines retention rate for you and how you would measure that in D3 terms and especially give it a definite number such as 30%. Keep in mind the game is one-time buy game and as such its concurrency importance ranks as high as any one-time buy game.

I don't see how D3 is standard. As it stands it is a triple A title, the only triple A game in this genre. All competitor products so far are not and based their success on their own individual game designs which have their roots in games pre-dating D3. I don't see any other competitor product using as well, even Grim Dawn will be different. D3 achieved one thing: It liberalized the genre. It made it easier and gave breathing room for competitors enabling them to find their own formulas. Initially there was reluctant fear that Diablo 3 might overkill this genre and stamp out any opposition by covering all the demands in their entirety. But it did not. Which is a relief and a curse. A relief because it revived the genre but much in the same way as the mythical destruction of the Tower of Babel did for languages. A curse because now Diablo 3 is just one ARPG of many but without its initial gravitational factor in terms of preference of the predecessors and before since its release actually. It is not the definitive #1 choice of games to play as in PC game reference title.

I.

Sorry I had to cut an excellent post, but I will explain the 30% retention rate.

It is based on the IN game new forming of groups displayed in the game.

The current system was introduced in patch 1.03, still very early in the game (early June 2012). The average of new groups being formed stood at EU 1800+ in prime time back then

These days (before patch 1.07) it stands around EU 600+ in prime time, that's 9 months after launch. I take EU figures as I play on this server structure.

So we have a 30% retention rate here in NEW groups forming (on a minute per minute tracking tool). FULL public groups are not counted, as are private games, solo games or AH dwellers, but that there is still a good measure to say there are still many people playing this game CONCURRENTLY (or you wouldn't get that number and retention).

Now comes more ...: ,as the FIRST weeks of ANY new launch, a game is vastly MORE played than say after 3 months. That activity may drop to 20 or even 30% (as people no longer play a game for 10 hours a day, but a more realistic number).

So the present day IN game activity is simply there. Which means the game has a very active following even 9 months after launch.

---
The rest of the story is simply the typical Blizzard policy of long term support for their games. AND to me a very specific kind of gameplay for Diablo 3.

namely: Diablo 3 has a very attractive CASUAL kind of gameplay for MASSES: no attunements, no needed grouping with gearscore requirements, SOLO challenges with no need to play it on daily basis to just be able to follow the GROUP mentality.

You play at your own pace and timing in this on line BattleNet integrated game.

This overall picture is rather attractive to play D3 when you are in the mood: sometimes for weeks and hardcore, sometimes you'll leave for months or play every other day for an hour...

The moment BattleNet will grow further with Blizzard's All Stars, a new SC2 expansion and their new MMO, it is clear that D3 fills a gap in that offer. Nothing more nothing less.

Despite D3 not being full 3D it fills another gap too. Because I think it is rather well suited to be launched on consoles between ever repeating shooters and sports games and full 3D games.

D3 is there for the masses who just only have 30 minutes playing time when in the mood of trashing mobs. As such it will stand the test of time. Those old grognards of D2 and those MMO addicts will still continue to attack it, but frankly numbers of sales are already this huge it really is of no importance for those liking it already.

You can form PG anytime, anywhere (no worries about seperate server problems) and with the usual Blizzard extra stuff coming up over the years AND an integrated BattleNet, this game will get played for years to come. It could even be relaunched on consoles and simply double its player numbers once more.

[Fencers]

D3 is there for the masses who just only have 30 minutes playing time when in the mood of trashing mobs. As such it will stand the test of time.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Despite the dubious speculation of well, everything in the above quoted post-- Diablo 3 does excel in accessibility in a manner no ARPG has yet managed. In that regard D3 likely will be the AAA ARPG for causal play for as many years as Diablo 2 lasted.

[chadwix]

Cant praise the technology in d3 when it only uses 1.2 gigs of ram and streams everything from the hd. Sounds like a console spec to me as far as engines.

I got 4 chars at paragon lvl10 now, cant call it bad game, but it could be better. Stupid things like set bonus's maxing without putting on the whole set (why should i equip this nats bow or ik maul?). Gems shouldnt cost gold to lvl up when you still get hell quality gem drops on mp10 inferno. Nv stacks + the inablity to swap acts is another example of them simply making it a chore.

D2 wasnt so different alt wise, do the same thing a different way, maybe not as fast but more fun. I have no idea how people play one char to 100, i do like 4 paragon lvls and im dying to use a diff class.

Glad to see it was a success overall and that they are learning from some of their boneheaded decisions (enrage, mobs heal in 3 secs etc). Game is a hell of a lot better than when we were chest farming.

[Buu]

Had to refute some stuff.

1. People had unrealistic expectations of D3. D2 nostalgia led to people demanding the best game ever out of D3.

This is most ridiculous pretending, PR talk affirmation Jay Wilson's team ever made. It's EA Modus Operandi. Shift the blame to customers that got it all wrong. 'Developers never screw up, it's customers that are expecting to use it wrong and failing."

No, developers should make a product people want to consume, not the product they think people have to consume. They don't have that much authority on strangers lives to dictate their tastes.

2. People in general are impossible to please. I can't find a single game where it's forums aren't filled with tons of people complaining, that is unless the game is so unpopular that people don't even bother to complain.

BIG SIGN: Games like Diablo 3, SWTOR, and Mass Effect 3 had LOTS of complains. Way more than let's say Rift, WoW or Torchlight 2. Today they have a wasteland of some people commenting here and there. Way to go, teams. The angry mob of today is the apathetic market of tomorrow. But OK, let's do like EA, manipulate some numbers and blame "the market" not their own administration.

3. D3 was released prematurely and some never forgave the devs for that. The current version is a solid game. It's come a long way in 6 patches. I think if the current version had come out on release, you'd see a lot less complaining.

SERIOUSLY!!!??? I mean SERIOUSLY!!!???? The game was so delayed that it turned into an financial AND marketing black hole. Activision Blizzard had to TAKE BACK Jay Wilson declarations of "Unspecified Long Delay" and force him to release a game he dragged and scrapped and restarted. Because ACTVI stocks started to drop due to a HUGE HIATUS in game launch by Blizzard.
CAUSED BY DIABLO 3. Good thing some people have memory.

4. Haters gonna hate. For every 1 person who whines on the forums and loudly, there's 100s of others enjoying their game. If D3 was as bad as the complainers on here would have you believe, there wouldn't be much at all on the AH. Instead there's 10s of thousands of auctions which proves there's thousands of accounts listing things every 48 hours.

Sorry, but I have to end this with a joke...Those 100 "people" for each whiner enjoying the game run at the same CPU, or you have to allocate just a few in each computer?

[Nerraw]

Cant praise the technology in d3 when it only uses 1.2 gigs of ram and streams everything from the hd. Sounds like a console spec to me as far as engines.

It ensures that the game can be played by more people. Why do you think WoW's engine has only received slight improvements at a time over the years? There's a lot of people playing on dinosaurs still. Blizzard, naturally enough, want as many people as possible to play their games.

[Bentusi]

Weird how people pretend D3 is similar to or even exactly the same as D and D2. I can give five very simple reasons why this is obviously not the case:

1: The maps in D3 are not randomized, even though Blizzard lies and says they are in their marketing fibs. This was a large part of the replayability in D and D2, totally gone in D3.

2: D3 is forced online. D and D2 were not. This causes lag even while playing alone, which most gamers still prefer unless they are doing PVP, and makes the game unavailable for play whenever Blizzard decides, even though the customers paid for the product.

3: D and D2 has randomized low level gear but fixed legendaries and sets. D3 has randomized everything, and more powerful low level gear than high level gear. How this is not retarded game development I don`t know. Rose colored glasses off plx.

4: The AH removes the main game play element of any ARPG by turning the game from what was admittedly a farming experience, but while hunting for improved gear in D and D2, to the ebay simulator called D3, where you hunt virtual gold in order to buy gear from an AH. As a consequence of this mandatory collectivism gear upgrades drop close to never as soon as you get close to Inferno level. If they did the AH would be absolutely flooded with high end gear, since every player in the world is posting his trash there. Therefore, it is a lie when people pretend it`s somehow reasonable for most people to acquire their gear themselves while "ignoring the AH". I did this and played for about three weeks on inferno without getting a single upgrade. All my gear was either donated by friends or found on hell. And whatever you think of this issue, there was no AH in D and D2.

5: The lack of customization for characters removes the second most important game play element of an ARPG by denying you control of your character`s development almost completely, to such an extent the stats are next to pointless. Again, this was not the case in D and D2.

Consequently, anybody who pretends D3 is "exactly the same as D2" is lying or ignorant of the topic, and I would strongly suggest of what really makes a computer game fun. Blizzard used to know this at one point, when their motto was "by gamers, for gamers!". Evidently it has now changed to "by accountants, for accountants", or alternatively: "by accountants, for Chinese gold farmers!".

---------- Post added 2013-04-19 at 05:48 AM ----------

Oh yeah, all those millions of accounts, half of them are bots. Makes a lot of sense, probably selling the stuff to each other, right.

Actually automated trading is the norm in financial sectors and is usually referred to as high frequency trading or flash trading. It used to be a criminal offense before Clinton legalized it in 1998 of course, but that`s a separate issue. But a bot D3 account can easily spend all day long all year round endlessly trading, buying, re-posting and skimming any market at a phenomenal rate. And it would be very profitable as well, which is why it used to be illegal and classified as pyramid scamming. Sadly, the entity in the best position by far to engage in this type of stuff in D3 is Blizzard itself, since it controls all the servers. Blizzard is unlikely to be investigating itself for virtual fraud after all.
As an added bonus, running a bot trading operation in D3 would make it appear as if there`s a large community of traders in D3 even if there isn`t, which is yet another reason why you`d never hear about this stuff from Blizzard.