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  1. #41
    The Insane Daelak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Also remember this:

    If you lose your job its because you were lazy or because your job wasn't economically viable anymore.

    If a bunch of people lose their jobs its Obama's fault.
    Haha, yes! Those children, single mothers, and the elderly need to stop being so dependent on the government food and welfare programs! They are the reason we are headed for a European socialist utopia! Reagan!
    Quote Originally Posted by zenkai View Post
    There is a problem, but I know just banning guns will fix the problem.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Rukentuts View Post
    Sometimes doctors disagree on the diagnosis; this is why tests are run.
    oh stop. How about looking at the several questions i asked and giving me your ideas on what will happen in each scenario?

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grummgug View Post
    oh stop. How about looking at the several questions i asked and giving me your ideas on what will happen in each scenario?
    What questions?"
    Quote Originally Posted by zenkai View Post
    There is a problem, but I know just banning guns will fix the problem.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    A recession isn't defined as "a poor economy". Its usually either defined as two quarters of GDP contraction or a significant rise in unemployment over a year.
    Correct, altho personally, i think there can be many definitions of the term.

    my own definition of recession is when the interest rate is below the inflation rate. The only time that occurs is when the economy is sick. By that definition, weve effectively been in a recession since 2000, which "feels" correct, as the prime driver for economic growth since 2000 has been massive amounts of stimulus. Without the government hollowing out the nation, wed have been in recession for 12 years now.

    The 90s was a truly healthy economy, with a strong dollar, honest interest rates, and strong growth

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grummgug View Post
    Correct, altho personally, i think there can be many definitions of the term.

    my own definition of recession is when the interest rate is below the inflation rate. The only time that occurs is when the economy is sick. By that definition, weve effectively been in a recession since 2000, which "feels" correct, as the prime driver for economic growth since 2000 has been massive amounts of stimulus. Without the government hollowing out the nation, wed have been ib recession for 12 years now.
    Free trade, financial de-regulation, and rising fuel costs are all hindrances on growth. We need to close the trade deficit, invest in American infrastructure and American small businesses, and get off imported fuel.
    Quote Originally Posted by zenkai View Post
    There is a problem, but I know just banning guns will fix the problem.

  6. #46
    Brewmaster The Riddler's Avatar
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    Isn't the hypothetical that we're in a recession again itself a sort of spin
    Regardless of political spin on either side... The fact is that the nation has been in a "slow to no" growth pattern for the past 5 years.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...tes/gdp-growth

    There was a massive hit in 2009, and since that point in time there have been only TWO economic quarters where the GDP grew at 4%. Every other quarter combined has averaged an anemic 1.64%. That's not good. It isn't technically a recession, but it is certainly lousy. Combine that with equally substandard job growth and while you may not have a technical recession, it can easily be said that the USA has had a very poor economy for the last 4-5 years.

    The spinmeisters can say that it isn't a "recession" until they are blue in the face. But the economic reality is that the USA has been in a metaphysical recession for the past 5 years - and I'd argue it is closer to being a depression.

    Unemployment is still high and isn't getting any better.
    http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

    The cost of living in the US is high and isn't getting any better, meaning consumer buying power is poor... This is especially true for energy, food, transportation, and fuel - all staples which drive total cost of living from your pocket.
    http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid11av.pdf

    While at the same time that consumer buying power has been dropping because of inflated costs of living, the average household income has been decreasing...
    http://www.deptofnumbers.com/income/us/

    And of course the national debt has been skyrocketing....
    http://zfacts.com/p/318.html

    The nation is printing money like crazy which is a slow fuse bomb for higher inflation and will prolong the negative outlook for years to come...
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/

    Now stack on that the fact that the "tax deal" they just passed has decreased everyone's paycheck. High unemployment. Lower earning power. Smaller paychecks. Bigger debt. Lower value monopoly money. Expensive energy and food. And now lower GDP.

    As far as government spending goes - you can't have the government "quantitatively easing" the economy during times of prolonged low to no growth. The negative growth isn't "austerity" because the US government is not in any way being thrifty. Having the government be the driver of that much of the GDP is a recipie for disaster. They have been growing at a rate of 6 to 8% for the entire time that the US economy has been growing only at 2%. You can't have a government that constantly grows at an 8% rate while the nation is only growing at 2%. It can't be sustained.

    So right now we're smack in the middle of what I call the "Government Bubble". And like the Tech bubble and the Housing bubble, this bubble will also pop. Heaven help us when it does. Regardless, dickering over whether or not we are in a technical recession is sophistry. The nation is in a MASSIVE economic downturn that has been prolonged by bad policy and there are no signs that it is going to improve. As far as "Planet Earth" is concerned, the US has been in a recession for 5 years and there's no change on the horizon.

  7. #47
    The Insane Daelak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post
    Regardless of political spin on either side... The fact is that the nation has been in a "slow to no" growth pattern for the past 5 years.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...tes/gdp-growth

    There was a massive hit in 2009, and since that point in time there have been only TWO economic quarters where the GDP grew at 4%. Every other quarter combined has averaged an anemic 1.64%. That's not good. It isn't technically a recession, but it is certainly lousy. Combine that with equally substandard job growth and while you may not have a technical recession, it can easily be said that the USA has had a very poor economy for the last 4-5 years.

    The spinmeisters can say that it isn't a "recession" until they are blue in the face. But the economic reality is that the USA has been in a metaphysical recession for the past 5 years - and I'd argue it is closer to being a depression.

    Unemployment is still high and isn't getting any better.
    http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

    The cost of living in the US is high and isn't getting any better, meaning consumer buying power is poor... This is especially true for energy, food, transportation, and fuel - all staples which drive total cost of living from your pocket.
    http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid11av.pdf

    While at the same time that consumer buying power has been dropping because of inflated costs of living, the average household income has been decreasing...
    http://www.deptofnumbers.com/income/us/

    And of course the national debt has been skyrocketing....
    http://zfacts.com/p/318.html

    The nation is printing money like crazy which is a slow fuse bomb for higher inflation and will prolong the negative outlook for years to come...
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/

    Now stack on that the fact that the "tax deal" they just passed has decreased everyone's paycheck. High unemployment. Lower earning power. Smaller paychecks. Bigger debt. Lower value monopoly money. Expensive energy and food. And now lower GDP.

    As far as government spending goes - you can't have the government "quantitatively easing" the economy during times of prolonged low to no growth. The negative growth isn't "austerity" because the US government is not in any way being thrifty. Having the government be the driver of that much of the GDP is a recipie for disaster. They have been growing at a rate of 6 to 8% for the entire time that the US economy has been growing only at 2%. You can't have a government that constantly grows at an 8% rate while the nation is only growing at 2%. It can't be sustained.

    So right now we're smack in the middle of what I call the "Government Bubble". And like the Tech bubble and the Housing bubble, this bubble will also pop. Heaven help us when it does. Regardless, dickering over whether or not we are in a technical recession is sophistry. The nation is in a MASSIVE economic downturn that has been prolonged by bad policy and there are no signs that it is going to improve. As far as "Planet Earth" is concerned, the US has been in a recession for 5 years and there's no change on the horizon.
    Historical data has shown when the federal government spends on infrastructure and/or military, it acts as a catalyst for the private sector to spur investment. No one cares about the national debt except for people who advocate going back to the gold standard and repealing the 16th amendment. There is also data to suggest that in times of slow to negative GDP growth, if the federal government cuts back on spending, it puts the economy in an even worse spot.

    I would rather us term out our debt to over 400 years and have a multi-trillion dollar spending program to get our economy (capital, labor, equipment) to its highest threshold, rather than dither around for 10-20 years and wait for the private sector to come back out of its shell on its own.
    Quote Originally Posted by zenkai View Post
    There is a problem, but I know just banning guns will fix the problem.

  8. #48
    The problem really isn't the contraction, it's the crazy talk that they engaged in claiming otherwise.

    If you watched ABC news last night you would think we've entered the new golden age of prosperity, they didn't even bother mentioning a GDP contraction. It was 14000 stock market (Obama is a genius), house prices are rising (Oh great leader, oh great leader), hints at how people will be able to sell all their homes at profits (Mount Rushmore, Mount Rushmore) and other nonsense.

    How a contraction of GDP can be explained away as positive is the perplexing thing, on top of the fact that all the nonsense this administration was behind claiming a contraction wouldn't occur due to what a great job they are doing.

    I guess it's Bush's fault.
    The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post
    So right now we're smack in the middle of what I call the "Government Bubble". And like the Tech bubble and the Housing bubble, this bubble will also pop. Heaven help us when it does. Regardless, dickering over whether or not we are in a technical recession is sophistry. The nation is in a MASSIVE economic downturn that has been prolonged by bad policy and there are no signs that it is going to improve. As far as "Planet Earth" is concerned, the US has been in a recession for 5 years and there's no change on the horizon.
    I can't disagree with this.

    Also, given the facts that

    -population numbers are increasing
    -life expectancies are increasing
    -people are retiring later in life
    -many businesses are doing the same work with fewer employees thanks to a multitude of factors

    In the big picture, unless another artificial bubble comes along to keep things afloat, you're witnessing the death spiral of capitalism as we currently practice it. Most on this forum will live to see a day when society changes its outlook on what constitutes a work-week, exactly who should 'have' to work, etc. And the change in mindset will not be pretty, but it will be completely necessary.

  10. #50
    The Insane Daelak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oblivionx View Post
    The problem really isn't the contraction, it's the crazy talk that they engaged in claiming otherwise.

    If you watched ABC news last night you would think we've entered the new golden age of prosperity, they didn't even bother mentioning a GDP contraction. It was 14000 stock market (Obama is a genius), house prices are rising (Oh great leader, oh great leader), hints at how people will be able to sell all their homes at profits (Mount Rushmore, Mount Rushmore) and other nonsense.

    How a contraction of GDP can be explained away as positive is the perplexing thing, on top of the fact that all the nonsense this administration was behind claiming a contraction wouldn't occur due to what a great job they are doing.

    I guess it's Bush's fault.
    The conservatives should be lauding this news because it resulted in a decrease in federal spending. Also, we just had a hurricane that hit the most densely populated area in the US.

    But then again, you speak out of both sides of your mouth. The federal government either has no affect on the economy, or it is a critical part of the health of the economy, and it is irrelevant whether it is redistributed private money or not, the only relevant issue is whether it gives us growth and employment.
    Quote Originally Posted by zenkai View Post
    There is a problem, but I know just banning guns will fix the problem.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Daelak View Post
    The conservatives should be lauding this news because it resulted in a decrease in federal spending. Also, we just had a hurricane that hit the most densely populated area in the US.

    But then again, you speak out of both sides of your mouth. The federal government either has no affect on the economy, or it is a critical part of the health of the economy, and it is irrelevant whether it is redistributed private money or not, the only relevant issue is whether it gives us growth and employment.
    I'd rather be accused of speaking out of both sides of my mouth than only one side.
    The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities.

  12. #52
    Mechagnome Syenite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rukentuts View Post
    Plenty of economists successfully predicted the Tech Bubble Burst of early 2000s and Housing Bubble Burst of 2008.
    On the contrary, plenty didnt predict it comming and demanded more spending and more debt.
    If you leave enough people guessing a few will ultimately be right... and by all means, we have a f*ckton of economists around telling us to do and what not.
    Since when did one of them add just one product other than hot air to the market? Banking industry is pulling 9% of the GDP, yet they dont really *produce* any goods..

  13. #53
    The Insane Daelak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oblivionx View Post
    I'd rather be accused of speaking out of both sides of my mouth than only one side.
    You don't know what you want.
    Quote Originally Posted by zenkai View Post
    There is a problem, but I know just banning guns will fix the problem.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Daelak View Post
    You don't know what you want.
    I know I want the left wing media not to be running "how the economy has been saved by the messiah" stories when GDP contracts.
    The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by oblivionx View Post
    I know I want the left wing media not to be running "how the economy has been saved by the messiah" stories when GDP contracts.
    Stop with the left wing media shit, you should be HAPPY that government spending went down. But then again your head would explode because you are accepting the fact that federal spending is actually a NET GAIN for the economy, completely nullifying your entire ideology that government spending is just theft form the private sector, even though modern econ and business say ITS IRRELEVANT.
    Quote Originally Posted by zenkai View Post
    There is a problem, but I know just banning guns will fix the problem.

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Syenite View Post
    Since when did one of them add just one product other than hot air to the market? Banking industry is pulling 9% of the GDP, yet they dont really *produce* any goods..
    Have you ever heard of a service economy? Because for the majority's sake, that's what the US Economy is.

  17. #57
    The Government cant keep propping up the economy soon they will run out of money then they will run out of other peoples money
    why is that so hard to understand

    Obama spent over 800 billion dollars to get the economy to only grow about 2% a year for 3 years
    you do the math how much would need to be spent for the economy to grow at 5% where it needs to be growing at. Then you would have to spend that every 3 years to keep it going
    No Government can afford to keep doing that Just ask Greece

    this is what happens when you really on the government to prop up the economy when the money runs out either you got to keep spending more money you don't have or you see a decline

    this is why We should have never had the Government prop up the economy to start with and we would not have seen a decline
    Last edited by Vyxn; 2013-01-30 at 05:32 PM.

  18. #58
    The Insane Daelak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vyxn View Post
    The Government cant keep propping up the economy soon they will run out of money then they will run out if other peoples money
    why is that so hard to understand

    Obama spent over 800 billion dollars to get the economy to only grow about 2% a year for 3 years
    you do the math how much would need to be spent for the economy to grow at 5% where it needs to be growing at. Then you would have to spend that every 3 years to keep it going
    No Government can afford to keep doing that Just ask Greece

    this is what happens when you really on the government to prop up the economy when the money runs out either you got you have to keep spending more money you don't have or you see a decline

    this is why We should have never had the Government prop up the economy to start with and we would not have seen a decline
    Of course we can, we have the largest tax base, largest natural gas, coal, and other natural reserves, most sophisticated military, most diverse economy than any other country on the globe. We could spend 500% of debt to GDP and we would be fine. We could term out all of our debt over the course of 500 years and global investors wouldn't give a shit.

    Most conservatives and libertarians really don't understand how powerful and productive the US is. We have 2 states that produce more than several countries COMBINED. We could literally piss away another 16 trillion on building anti-personnell gun on each and every school to shoot mass shooters, and the global community wouldn't give a shit because WE OWN the global economy.
    Quote Originally Posted by zenkai View Post
    There is a problem, but I know just banning guns will fix the problem.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rukentuts View Post
    Have you ever heard of a service economy? Because for the majority's sake, that's what the US Economy is.
    Yet most of what the bank does for you can be done by a computer, even stock trading is done without much human interaction. How can a computer be worth 9% of your time / money?
    I dont mind paying for a service, but bankers making billions is a shear disgrace when compared to people working their ass off to support their families.

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Syenite View Post
    I dont mind paying for a service, but bankers making billions is a shear disgrace when compared to people working their ass off to support their families.
    Intellectual capital is worth far more than manual labor in our market. Welcome to the service economy.

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