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  1. #1

    Activision-Blizzard a declining stock? How it effects WoW?

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1147...e?source=yahoo

    Reading this article, how does the guy come up with what looks like 6 million subs currently playing WoW?

    If thats the case, Blizz better right the ship because after the final patch for MoP, you're looking at 1 maybe 2 million subs until launch of the next expansion.

    Edit:

    Misread the graph, looks like its just this guys own conclusions. Apparently current subs are at 8 mil.

  2. #2
    Brewmaster slackjawsix's Avatar
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    "Source: Activision Blizzards quarterly reports and my own estimations"

    "While World of Warcraft's "successor", "Titan" likely will do very well, it will likely still suffer from the "mean reversion"-concept."

    Seems he just made his own estimations based off a trend for the sub numbers but the second quote i put up there make me think thats he hasnt looked much into the topic hes writing about cause as many of us know Titan is not meant to be a successor but a game that is going to run at the same time as WoW due to its supposed differences from WoW
    i live by one motto! "lolwut?"

  3. #3
    Immortal Destil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slackjawsix View Post
    "Source: Activision Blizzards quarterly reports and my own estimations"

    "While World of Warcraft's "successor", "Titan" likely will do very well, it will likely still suffer from the "mean reversion"-concept."

    Seems he just made his own estimations based off a trend for the sub numbers but the second quote i put up there make me think thats he hasnt looked much into the topic hes writing about cause as many of us know Titan is not meant to be a successor but a game that is going to run at the same time as WoW due to its supposed differences from WoW
    Not just that but the chart has 6 million by Q2 of 2014.

    Yeah, this guys a maroon.
    Quote Originally Posted by Slowpoke is a Gamer View Post
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  4. #4
    Never pay attention to these stupid stock markets. The main reason being is that blizzard has an will always have 100% control over it's own products.

  5. #5
    Financial analysis is a fancy name for "random guesses".

  6. #6
    Titan is years away, maybe even a decade they have it hidden for when WOW really starts tanking and that wont happen soon.
    Warlock / IA Operative / Wizard / Engineer

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by huth View Post
    Financial analysis is a fancy name for "random guesses".
    Umm no, there's actually a lot of math involved.

    That being said, this article is poorly written.

  8. #8
    A lot of math that ends up being random guesses anyway. Your point?

  9. #9
    my point is that you have no idea what you are talking about.

  10. #10
    Warchief Kilpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celista View Post
    Umm no, there's actually a lot of math involved.
    That's why it's an educated guess.

  11. #11
    Um, literally anyone can write articles for that site. You get paid based on page views. I wouldn't trust a damn thing written here.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Hellfury View Post
    Titan is years away, maybe even a decade they have it hidden for when WOW really starts tanking and that wont happen soon.
    That sounds like a terrible business practice for several reasons, not the least of which is how fast technology moves.

  13. #13
    Assuming that site can even be trusted, then the stock price of Activision-Blizzard dropping will affect WoW by a very precise amount: nothing. Nada. No difference whatsoever. Or well, if anything, Blizzard would work harder to make WoW a better game.

    This community cares far too much about the business side of things. That is really none of our concern.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by huth View Post
    Financial analysis is a fancy name for "random guesses".
    More like "educated guess" but it is still conjecture.

    Slaying 8bit dragons with 6 pixel long swords since 1987.
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  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Redmage View Post
    More like "educated guess" but it is still conjecture.
    There is a precise way to determine a company/stock's intrinsic value. That value is not necessarily reflected in stock prices. Some are hugely inflated, some are undervalued. A $300/share stock is not necessarily better than a $7/share stock...also there are some companies that deliberately do not split their stock often (google) so your share represents a larger percentage of the company versus a share at another company, etc.

    Anyone can calculate the intrinsic value of a company, all of their financials are required to be publicly available.

    The only element of conjecture that comes into play is when considering whether or not a company will increase that intrinsic value over time (sell vs buy), which involves industry knowledge, consumer trends, economic forecasts, etc as it affects intrinsic value.

    Financial analysis is more than an educated guess but it does have a wildcard element when you are talking about stock speculation; ratio analysis/intrinsic value calculation is not speculation.
    Last edited by Celista; 2013-01-31 at 09:30 PM.

  16. #16
    Elemental Lord Arbs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kisho View Post
    Assuming that site can even be trusted, then the stock price of Activision-Blizzard dropping will affect WoW by a very precise amount: nothing. Nada. No difference whatsoever. Or well, if anything, Blizzard would work harder to make WoW a better game.

    This community cares far too much about the business side of things. That is really none of our concern.
    Ya most of the WoW community doesn't care about subs, its the haters & people proclaiming WoW is dead seem really only care about the sub numbers. We play the game everyday & know how packed & strong the game is.
    I'm neither Pro or Anti Flying, I just have a different opinion on the matter.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Kilpi View Post
    That's why it's an educated guess.
    Still a guess. I love it when annalists predict say 500M profit for the quarter, and the company destroys its previous quarter and its YTY quarter but only hits 450M. Stocks drop because it failed to hit annalists predictions. Yes they use tons of data but in the end it is still a guess and in some cases can really hurt a company.

    My company has been turning out decent profits for 17 straight years even though we provide what is considered a luxury service, even in the recession, we turned typical profits. We decided to go more towards customer service instead of pure production to keep more customers instead of finding new ones all the time from turn over. We were predicted to see an increase 8% we saw an increase of 5% and our stock tanked. Our parent company sold us off to private investors who couldn't have been more happier to take this bleeding whale of a company of their hands. They held the company for 3 years and really did nothing with us and sold us. Our stock is now 3x the price it was before it crashed. I know it is an exception to the rule, but it can hurt.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-31 at 09:39 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Hellfury View Post
    Titan is years away, maybe even a decade they have it hidden for when WOW really starts tanking and that wont happen soon.
    Again, except that WoW is not a replacement nor competitor of WoW. That is fact and has been mentioned by more than one Blizzard executive.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Destil View Post
    Not just that but the chart has 6 million by Q2 of 2014.

    Yeah, this guys a maroon.
    He is purple?

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Beefhamer View Post
    Still a guess. I love it when annalists predict say 500M profit for the quarter, and the company destroys its previous quarter and its YTY quarter but only hits 450M. Stocks drop because it failed to hit annalists predictions. Yes they use tons of data but in the end it is still a guess and in some cases can really hurt a company.

    My company has been turning out decent profits for 17 straight years even though we provide what is considered a luxury service, even in the recession, we turned typical profits. We decided to go more towards customer service instead of pure production to keep more customers instead of finding new ones all the time from turn over. We were predicted to see an increase 8% we saw an increase of 5% and our stock tanked. Our parent company sold us off to private investors who couldn't have been more happier to take this bleeding whale of a company of their hands. They held the company for 3 years and really did nothing with us and sold us. Our stock is now 3x the price it was before it crashed. I know it is an exception to the rule, but it can hurt.
    Which only shows that the stock price has little, if anything, to do with the value of the company.

    As i said, random guesses.

  20. #20
    I agree with a lot of what he said. Activision-Blizzard has been milking they're mainstream games immensely and it doesn't last forever. So I could see the stocks price dropping the next 5 years.

    However they do have some great minds over there and I'm sure they're coming up with a lot of ideas for new games. All it takes is one new Skylanders and Act will have another franchise to bleed dry.

    Off topic: The comments were pretty funny with the guys defending WoW.
    Quote Originally Posted by Boubouille View Post
    You're full of shit honey.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghostcrawler
    You should have no expectations for the next expansion IMO...

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