i dont think the production costs do go up that much either.. but they will use this excuse for charging more or keeping games priced the same as now. There is no way games will get cheaper on console networks.
If it has no backwards compatability and they go ahead with the plan to make it never play used games then i doubt any1 will buy it,consoles coming out too frequent for me,iv only just got a PS3 a few months ago i aint made of money!