9 million by Blizzard (which actually means 5.5 million without lies).
Based on http://wow.realmpop.com/
EU: 2,921,261 Characters from level 86-90 (many of them alts, and some of them already unsubbed)
US: 2,663,053 Characters from level 86-90 (many of them alts, and some of them already unsubbed)
Last edited by Sipalb; 2013-02-03 at 01:32 PM.
I predict that me and all my friends will still be subscribed and that nothing else will matter.
So you are only counting people that are level 86 or higher, have posted an auction or are guilded as subscribers?How - To get the list of characters for a realm, first we record all the characters who posted to the auction house. Then we fetch and record their guild rosters. This should cover the majority of characters on a realm. To avoid getting listed, a character must never post to the auction house, and never belong to a guild where a guild member posts to the auction house.
Same as always.
Increase in subs, must be Blizzard lying, or increase in gold sellers, players were "fooled" into returning for MoP or whatever.
Steady: same as above, but it's because the loss of "real" subs is equal to the gain in "bots/goldsellers/chinese" subs
Loss: SEE SEE SEE PANDAS SUCK PEOPLE HATE IT MY REALM USED TO HAVE X NOW ITS Y PLAYERS AND MY GUILD HAS DWINDLED FANBOYS DEFENDING THE GAME HAHAHA ENJOY UR DYING GAME
Me? I expect a loss around half a million tops. 300k maybe. It doesn't matter how good expansions are when a game is this old. It doesn't attract new players anywhere close to it did when it was new. Keyword: NEW. Hopefully most of the sub losses is mostly those who couldn't adapt to the changes from the 2h/week 4.3 bore-fest
Personally I see no correlation between subs and my gameplay experience. But it's nice whenever the numbers shut the quitters up for a moment. But I'd be living in a fantasy if I thought WoW will last forever.
Last edited by MasterHamster; 2013-02-03 at 01:44 PM.
There's always Hamster.
Last edited by Sipalb; 2013-02-03 at 01:45 PM.
Unless you're an investor, or looking to invest into Blizzard, the subscriber numbers mean nothing to you.
Personally, I think they'll dip a bit as with what always happens after an expansion.
Last edited by Hyve; 2013-02-03 at 01:58 PM.
Loss of Subs = Redesigns, to bring people back or into it. If there is a loss of subs it means there is something wrong with the game that needs to be addressed. Loss of subs is what brought us things like SoR and Annual Sub with bonuses (These are examples).
Despite what people may or may not want to believe, Blizzard doesn't take a loss in subs lightly when it's a significant number. 500k-1mil is a significant number, and is what I believe has been lost, however I could be wrong and am willing to accept that.
However, if my prediction is correct, expect some changes. They may not be huge changes, but it will contribute to the game.
My Prediciton is based off of:
Amount of low population realms (Despite what people may think, the "Population" listed in the realm selection is relative based on overall population. This is why late at night/early in the morning you will see several normally dead realms listed as "Medium", meanwhile you login and there's roughly 100-300 people on.)
Current State of PvP Balance
Current State of PvE Balance
End game heavily designed around dailies. There are other less rewarding options to get you to the same place at a slower rate.
Rehashing old content over and over again.
Seemingly Uninspired art when it comes to armor/weapons.
These are all examples of reasons why I believe people are leaving, and of course are subjective to the way a player feels. I could be right, however I could be wrong and am not worried if I am.
Personally I think a nice sub loss would be great for the game in the long run, because it will force Blizzard into figuring out where they went wrong and correcting it, possibly bringing this game back on track.
Yes, I currently am a Subscriber of World of Warcraft, yes I can still find some enjoyment out of the game. However I feel as if it's not living up to it's potential these days, and because of that I believe there will be a loss in subs.
"There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
"Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler
"Nothing will ever be attempted if all possible objections must first be overcome." -- Samuel Johnson
Why not? Because you will never know why people left and what direction they will go.
Let's take feature X and feature Y, you approve of X and hate Y.
Other people, a majority, might have left because they dislike X and love Y.
So what does Blizzard do: They do more with Y and dispose of X, the opposite of what you'd want.
I also really hate some of the things in this game, but I hardly care about a subloss because I can never know if the majority shares my opinion.
Again, if Blizzard focused more on balancing classes in PvP and PvE, they would save a large chunk of the subs.
Yes, you should hope for a loss in subs when the game is going into what you feel is the wrong direction, this why they can steer the ship back on the right course.
Sitting there hoping subs never fall is just like telling someone who is doing something wrong that they are doing a great job. This is what everyone means when they say "Speak with your wallet".
---------- Post added 2013-02-03 at 11:06 AM ----------
WoW reached 12mil subs in the end of BC and dropped with the launch of WotLK only to reach 12 mil again with the China launch that was in a quarter where they had to announce the numbers so it was at that point official.
---------- Post added 2013-02-03 at 11:12 AM ----------
---------- Post added 2013-02-03 at 11:14 AM ----------
Also, for the ones absolutely happy with the current game, I'm happy they are happy. However, I'm not happy with a sub-optimal product.
If I quit, it'll be because I've been playing too long or can't dedicate "enough" time anymore. I got other means to stay in touch with friends in the game.
What I find frustrating is this NEVER ENDING complaints that seem to think that the current is always worse than it was. It's sickening. It spreads negativity often based on rhetoric or false ideas. PvP has always had balance issues. There will always be players frustrated with something. And hey, happy players aren't going to make threads about something they find neat.
Players complaining about dailies take no heed as to why "forced" world interaction is a necessity. Perhaps they started in WLK or Cata and has gotten used to factions being nothing but an uncapped rep bar that they can fill without leaving a city.
No, Blizzard doesn't panic when subs go down. Of course they don't want it, but it's incredibly cynical to attribute sub losses as a sign that the game has taken a wrong turn. 10 million despite being as old as it is. Like it or not, Blizzard is doing things right. But WHATEVER the fuck they implement or focus on, there'll be players there whining about it.
Sub losses are not because of game quality decaying (lol, compare raids from 5-6 years ago to today) but mostly because there's not a single gamer who still hasn't tried out WoW if he or she had any interest. Classics success was based on lack of competition and it being WARCRAFT. Burning Crusade had ILLIDAN and it was the FIRST EXPANSION.
The flow of new players has decreased steadily, as anyone with a bit of common sense can understand is not based upon quality, but age.
There will never be an end to the complaints. There's no end to the muppets who's going to attribute sub losses that has a myriad of reasons to whatever feature THEY feel has declined. I can understand why most devs don't spend time on the forums, if they did they'd might get the idea a majority of the current players aren't enjoying the game. Or that everything they work on is just bad. Forum mentality.
Personally I hope every spoiled 4.3 2h-cap brat has left the game. The game sure won't be worse without them.
It's bad enough that they managed to whine enough that Blizzard is going to implement a capped championing system in 5.2, that risks making the world once again obsolete.
Last edited by MasterHamster; 2013-02-03 at 03:22 PM.
There's always Hamster.