Subscription predictions for next quarter!

[BenBos]

Quit making this into a game vs game thread, how have you not been infracted for derailing the thread already?

What an XXXX you are if you want to discuss the subscription numbers of a singular game WITHOUT looking at the industry as such which for 99% went free to play.

You failed to prove ANY point except being frustrated that you are discussing a 10 million subscription based game in what is really a FREE to PLAY market these days.

Blizzard won that battle in an industry that was standard subscription based and now turned unprofitable without going free to play....

which makes subs discussions totally meaningless these days.

[det]

Personally I think the newness of Pandaria has faded off and subscriptions are going to be in decline. I predict 8.5million subs, that means 1.5million lost.

..and you base that on..what?

[Goldfingaz]

What an XXXX you are if you want to discuss the subscription numbers of a singular game WITHOUT looking at the industry as such which for 99% went free to play.

You failed to prove ANY point except being frustrated that you are discussing a 10 million subscription based game in what is really a FREE to PLAY market these days.

Blizzard won that battle in an industry that was standard subscription based and now turned unprofitable without going free to play....

which makes subs discussions totally meaningless these days.

Again, this isn't game vs game so give it up, so we can continue our discussion on our subscription predictions.

[Alastaircrawly]

Really? We hardly have those people on this forum.
What we do have are people that are allergic to bullshit.

That's bullshit For every SLIGHT and MILD criticism you may have against the game a legion of people will come and tell you why you are wrong.

[Pebrocks The Warlock]

That's bullshit For every SLIGHT and MILD criticism you may have against the game a legion of people will come and tell you why you are wrong.

Yet it's never slight and mild criticism, stop lying. It's people trying to push their opinions on people and pass them off as fact.

[Pann]

Yet it's never slight and mild criticism, stop lying. It's people trying to push their opinions on people and pass them off as fact.

Next you'll be telling us that irony is women's work!

[Alastaircrawly]

Wrong, I want WoW to be successful and thus I like high subscription numbers. If numbers drop, Blizzard has less money, less money means a decrease of quality.

When sub numbers dropped they reported record profit

---------- Post added 2013-02-03 at 10:37 AM ----------

The first hit for 12m subs was on the cusp of 2009, between patch 3.0.3 and 3.0.8 (both WotLK prep patches), and then hit 12m again around October 2010, patch 4.0.1, the Cataclysm prep patch.

Pretty sure that made WotLK the best expansion ever. However, to those that think that subs are going to drop to 9m, the last time that happened was mid-2007: Patch 2.1.0 (the Black Temple) had only been out for a month.

Was WoW dead during 2.1.0?

That is a fan made graph correct?

[Firebert]

That is a fan made graph correct?

http://mmodata.blogspot.co.uk/

Fan-made and slow to update, yes, but it's useful to show people that the downward trend, even by an overestimated amount, isn't all that bad.

[Pann]

That is a fan made graph correct?

Other than it does not reflect the loss in subs when WOW had licensing problems was unavailable before switching to Netease in China and it does not have the last two quarter's numbers. yep it is pretty much spot on.

[Alastaircrawly]

Quit making this into a game vs game thread, how have you not been infracted for derailing the thread already?

He seems to be able to do what he wants

---------- Post added 2013-02-03 at 10:43 AM ----------

Yet it's never slight and mild criticism, stop lying. It's people trying to push their opinions on people and pass them off as fact.

Bullshit. The legion of fanbois sure are sensitive about ANYcriticism

[BenBos]

Again, this isn't game vs game so give it up, so we can continue our discussion on our subscription predictions.

Wrong, this is an INDUSTRY discussion about how WOW subscriptions are doing in what has turned to into a FREE to play industry for 99% of the cases.

As such it is WRONG you continue to AVOID the fact that the BIGGEST subscription based Fantasy games turned into a FREE to play model over the last 2 years ...


Now why would anyone want to discuss 9.5M, 10M, 10.5 M subscription numbers IF the rest of the MMO's ALREADY abondened their paid subscriptions in the first place ?

---> To see that WOW would "decline"? How could they, they are the ONLY ones left with above 400K subs ???



THESE discussions would be meaningful if you'd be in a position of 2010 ... where everything as an AAA MMORPG still had subscriptions.

But apparently you and a LOT of others are still in their winter sleep.

----

Here: I show you the truth...

http://mmodata.blogspot.be/

Now look at that UPDATE date: AUGUST 29 ... 2012.

Not one single update anymore.

the reason is simple: subscriptions are gone in 95% of the cases,

If anything WOW going from 12M to 10M had MUCH more to do with the changing industry which went from sub to Free to P(l)AY.

[Alastaircrawly]

Wrong, this is an INDUSTRY discussion about how WOW subscriptions are doing in what has turned to into a FREE to play industry for 99% of the cases.

As such it is WRONG you continue to AVOIDthe fact that the BIGGEST subscription based Fantasy games turned into a FREE to play model over the last 2 years ...


Now why would anyone want to discuss 9.5M, 10M, 10.5 M subscription numbers IF the rest of the MMO's ALREADY abondened their paid subscriptions in the first place ?

--- To see that WOW would "decline"? How could they, they are the ONLY ones left with above 400K subs ???



THESE discuission would be meaningful if you'd be in a position of 2010 ... where everything as an AAA MMORPG still had subscriptions.

But apparently you and a LOT of others are still in their winter sleep.

Here: I show you the truth...

http://mmodata.blogspot.be/

Now look at that UPDATE date: AUGUST 29 ... 2012.

Not one single update anymore.

the reason is simple: subscriptions are gone in 95% of the cases .

How the fuck is he not infracted for non stop derailing trying to make it game vs game? He been warned by a mod once already in this thread

Other games and F2P model has nothing to do with Subscription predictions for next quarter

stop trying to derail it Benbos

[Ichifails]

The first hit for 12m subs was on the cusp of 2009, between patch 3.0.3 and 3.0.8 (both WotLK prep patches), and then hit 12m again around October 2010, patch 4.0.1, the Cataclysm prep patch.

Pretty sure that made WotLK the best expansion ever. However, to those that think that subs are going to drop to 9m, the last time that happened was mid-2007: Patch 2.1.0 (the Black Temple) had only been out for a month.

Was WoW dead during 2.1.0?

I'm rather sure you're not silly enough to believe that. The gain from 11.5mil to 12mil was because people expected something new and got smacked in the face. Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed WotLK but except for Ulduar I enjoyed it for the people I played it with and not the content. In the BT patch, subs didn't drop to 9mil, the were rising to 9mil, there's a slight difference. WotLK was actually the first expansion WoW started losing people (some to being burnt out because of playing too much in the past years, some didn't enjoy the content, etc). WotLK was only launched in Asia around sept 2010 when we were getting Cataclysm so that's what saved the numbers.

That being said, I really don't give a rats ass how many people play a game as long as I enjoy playing it. I'm just allergic to bullshit.

[Alastaircrawly]

I'm rather sure you're not silly enough to believe that. The gain from 11.5mil to 12mil was because people expected something new and got smacked in the face. Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed WotLK but except for Ulduar I enjoyed it for the people I played it with and not the content. In the BT patch, subs didn't drop to 9mil, the were rising to 9mil, there's a slight difference. WotLK was actually the first expansion WoW started losing people (some to being burnt out because of playing too much in the past years, some didn't enjoy the content, etc). WotLK was only launched in Asia around sept 2010 when we were getting Cataclysm so that's what saved the numbers.

That being said, I really don't give a rats ass how many people play a game as long as I enjoy playing it. I'm just allergic to bullshit.

Bullshit.

Blizzard did not start reporting any sub losses till after cata.

WOTLK was the peak for subs.

[Pann]

Wrong, this is an INDUSTRY discussion about how WOW subscriptions are doing in what has turned to into a FREE to play industry for 99% of the cases.

As such it is WRONG you continue to AVOID the fact that the BIGGEST subscription based Fantasy games turned into a FREE to play model over the last 2 years ...


Now why would anyone want to discuss 9.5M, 10M, 10.5 M subscription numbers IF the rest of the MMO's ALREADY abondened their paid subscriptions in the first place ?

---> To see that WOW would "decline"? How could they, they are the ONLY ones left with above 400K subs ???



THESE discussion would be meaningful if you'd be in a position of 2010 ... where everything as an AAA MMORPG still had subscriptions.

But apparently you and a LOT of others are still in their winter sleep.

----

Here: I show you the truth...

http://mmodata.blogspot.be/

Now look at that UPDATE date: AUGUST 29 ... 2012.

Not one single update anymore.

the reason is simple: subscriptions are gone in 95% of the cases,

This thread is about the sub numbers of WOW not any other game the clue is in the name of the forum it is posted in. For some unknown reason you seem determined to turn it into some form of game vs game argument. Other games going free to play has no bearing on this report.

Bullshit.

Blizzard did not start reporting any sub losses till after cata.

WOTLK was the peak for subs.

In fairness they did report small loses during WOTLK it is detailed in this post;

http://mmodata.blogspot.be/2010/07/s...w-numbers.html

There is also evidence in falling activity that the launch of WOTLK in China covered the losses in the Western market.

[Alastaircrawly]

This thread is about the sub numbers of WOW not any other game the clue is in the name of the forum it is posted in. For some unknown reason you seem determined to turn it into some form of game vs game argument. Other games going free to play has no bearing on this report.

The mod allready warned him once to stop.

[BenBos]

How the fuck is he not infracted for non stop derailing trying to make it game vs game? He been warned by a mod once already in this thread

Other games and F2P model has nothing to do with Subscription predictions for next quarter

stop trying to derail it Benbos

So how many times you tried to click on the report button to see the TRUTH:

WOW subscriptions are directly related to what was going on in this MMORPG industry: subscription based MMO's went free to PLAY and so the subscriptions of WOW are under pressure in this new "world of free to play MMo's".

Nah, learn to see it the intelligent way of how predicting subscriptions are set in this INDUSTRY as a whole.

WOW Subscriptions of 2010 were set in a world where the industry was subscription based by default,

2012/2013 WOW subscriptions are set in a world where the industry is set as FREE to PLAY by default.

BIG difference to evaluate.

Much more influence than any moaning or QQ about a class nerf actually. I guess you know that, you just want to not see the whole economy picture and discuss the "little things" to moan about (which are effectively trivial at best).

If ANY moderator with a brain would want to stop me for giving the general analysis of WOW subscriptions within this changed industry, I think he should think twice.

IN game trivial nerfs are inferior to a changing overall industry.

[Goldfingaz]

Bullshit.

Blizzard did not start reporting any sub losses till after cata.

WOTLK was the peak for subs.

According to that graph, Subs started Declining at the start of '09, which is before Cataclysm. That again, is simply going off of that graph.

[Alastaircrawly]

So how many times you tried to click on the report button to see the TRUTH:

WOW subscriptions are directly related to what was going on in this MMORPG industry: subscription based MMO's went free to PLAY and so the subscriptions of WOW are under pressure in this new "world of free to play MMo's".

Nah, learn to see it the intelligent way of how predicting subscriptions are set in this INDUSTRY as a whole.

WOW Subscriptions of 2010 were set in a world where the industry was subscription based by default,

2012/2013 WOW subscriptions are set in a world where the industry is set as FREE to PLAY by default.

BIG difference to evaluate.

Much more influence than any moaning or QQ about a class nerf actually. I guess you know that, you just want to not see the whole economy picture.

Well

Markets aren't the same thing as other game titles and speculation about game specifics which generally aren't available isn't overly useful.

Since I asked nicely, I'm sure you will find a way.

Right there a mod tells you no

---------- Post added 2013-02-03 at 11:05 AM ----------

According to that graph, Subs started Declining at the start of '09, which is before Cataclysm. That again, is simply going off of that graph.

Teh graph as pointed out is fan made and not from a credible source. Blizzard did not start to report sub loss till after cata but during wotlk keep reporting sub gains

[Firebert]

I'm rather sure you're not silly enough to believe that.

I actually believe that. BC was far to inaccessible for anyone not doing Karazhan, Cata locked out casuals and PuGs from content as low as heroics until LFR and shorter dungeons were released. Naxx was more than enough content for everyone, Ulduar was by far the best set-up raid WoW's had, running from zone content to raid content, Trial of the Crusade had Faction Champs ('nuff said), and we finally finished the storyline we started back in earlier Warcraft games by killing Arthas.

WotLK was actually the first expansion WoW started losing people (some to being burnt out because of playing too much in the past years, some didn't enjoy the content, etc).

WotLK started with 12m and ended with 12m. I don't see how that's "losing people".