Subscription predictions for next quarter!

[Destil]

You should apply for the job as moderator :P

Can tell if you're sarcastic or not bud :P.

[beanman12345]

I think Rift has a few hundred thousand subscribers.

They don't have as many as you'd think.

Last I heard, which was a year ago and discounts the fact some may have come back to Rift for the Expansion and what not, Rift had about 300k+ subscribers.

Actually a few hundred thousand is actually what i do believe rift has. IT's just fun proving benbos wrong.

[Destil]

Actually a few hundred thousand is actually what i do believe rift has.

Yeah.

I'm surprised Rift is still subscriber based to be honest.

It's a very good game but it doesn't have the huge numbers you'd expect for a subscription based MMO to be successful.

[Pann]

Sorry but I never derailed anything.

I just said that WoW had 10.000.000 subscriptions in 2008

And by now WoW is the only one with these same number of subs while 95% of the competion went free to play with most of the things on life support.

So good luck for the usual haters to discuss the "millions" of WoW while most of the rest stand now at ... ZERO subs... That's 0.000.000

We won

You never derailed anything?

Rift crumbled to 8 US servers (coming from 57). That's a 16 k concurrent users max.

I think if these guys have 80k left that they'll crawl to Rome on their knees to thank the Pope.

Nah, all of these competitors to WoW subscriptions that WANTED TO GET TO THE MONEY all went free to play in modest survival mode over the last 4 years.

We won

What about this? What does Rift have to with predicting the sub numbers for the next conference call?

[BenBos]

Because someone mentioned Rift, as a competitor in the subscription branche.

I wanted to point out that my analysis of subscription based games was correct. And that while WoW kept its approx 10 M subs from 2008 to 2013 the rest crumbled to 600k total coming from 2M in 2008.

All the rest is free to play in order to survive.



Pretty clear I explained it all. And a rift fan wanted to talk and promote his game, so I expained to him his sub based game went from 57 US servers to 8 in just 2 years time, as an example of how bad things worked out for sub based games...

Grow up: you are discussing the millions of WoW while most of the rest stands at 0.000.000 subs ...

[killidan]

I say 9.5M, and declining from there. Definitely below 10M.

[Kangodo]

Hehe the irony, because when numbers go up, people dont say anything or dont even care. If they drop, everyone and thier mother goes insane and open up atleast 5 to 6 threads on that particular week. Then when the call is about to come again in a few months, the cycle repeats, this same thread pops every 3 / 4 months.

Not true!
If the numbers go up, people will open multiple threads where they:
a) Accuse them of lying.
b) Claim that it are all Chinese people and how they aren't "real players"
c) Claim it are mostly bots.
d) Attack Blizzard for making a promotion that got a lot of people back.

I didn't make those things up, it all happened before =(

[Pann]

Because someone mentioned Rift, as a competitor in the subscription branche.

I wanted to point out that my analysis of subscription based games was correct. And that while WoW kept its approx 10 M subs from 2008 to 2013 the rest crumbled to 600k total coming from 2M in 2008.

All the rest is free to play in order to survive.



Pretty clear I explained it all. And a rift fan wanted to talk and promote his game, so I expained to him his sub based game went from 57 US servers to 8 in just 2 years time, as an example of how bad things worked out for sub based games...

No-one mentioned Rift until you posted about it.

[Destil]

I say 9.5M, and declining from there. Definitely below 10M.

What happens if it's not and it's on a study rise from 10 million?

What if by the end of Mists the subscriber base is around 12 million again?

And don't say "It won't" because neither of us know it will or not.

Because I know you vehemently dislike WoW, Killidan. I'm just curious as to what happens if you're wrong.

[Lumineus]

Prediction: massively down. Normal/Heroic raiding population cut in half, gearing from LFR is like pulling teeth, Blizzard sticking their heads in the sand about the absurd time investment needed for multiple characters.

[Destil]

Prediction: massively down. Normal/Heroic raiding population cut in half, gearing from LFR is like pulling teeth, Blizzard sticking their heads in the sand about the absurd time investment needed for multiple characters.

But they're not.

They keep listening to feedback and adding more changes that, for the most part, the community agrees with and say "Hey this makes the daily grind and alt unfriendliness much better."

[Pann]

What happens if it's not and it's on a study rise from 10 million?

What if by the end of Mists the subscriber base is around 12 million again?

And don't say "It won't" because neither of us know it will or not.

Because I know you vehemently dislike WoW, Killidan. I'm just curious as to what happens if you're wrong.

It is not going to be 12 million, there is no way Blizzard would have kept quiet about what would be a miraculous turn around. If the subs remain at 10 million it is slightly disappointing but nothing to worry about.

[Destil]

It is not going to be 12 million, there is no way Blizzard would have kept quiet about what would be a miraculous turn around. If the subs remain at 10 million it is slightly disappointing but nothing to worry about.

We don't know that.

For all we know, Blizzard could introduce as a feature servers that cater to specific expansions.

That could cause a surge.

Or finally finding a balance between the casuals and hardcore.

You can't know that and neither can I.

Hell the amount of subscribers for WoW could actually stay at 10 million for 20 years.

If that honestly happened, I'd laugh my ass off.

And why would it be disappointing if WoW is still successful?

[Osmeric]

Where do you see those numbers?

Go to class.xfire.com and find the appropriate chart.

http://classic.xfire.com/games/#

(click to sort by rank)

[felhunter]

i wouldnt be suprised if it lost some of the more pvp focussed players, and some crybabies who over did the amount of dailies they can handle.
but overall the general tone of people im playing with is very positive, so i wouldnt really expect a significant drop. think its rather stable

[BenBos]

What happens if it's not and it's on a study rise from 10 million?

What if by the end of Mists the subscriber base is around 12 million again?

And don't say "It won't" because neither of us know it will or not.

Because I know you vehemently dislike WoW, Killidan. I'm just curious as to what happens if you're wrong.

If that would happen ... I mean if these subs would stay around the 10.000.000 mark, it would be a HUGE blow to the competition really.

Because 2012 was THE year to break the WoW hegemony with 2 of the most ridiculous hyped up MMO's since 2008.

In fact it would put the industry in its underpants that an 8+ year old game would dominate the complete subscription based industry.

If you would have said this in ... 2007... No one would have believed you that an 8 year old game would still dominate this lucrative subscription market.

Hell, even COD dropped its Elite subscriptions recently ...

Awesome really.

[Pann]

We don't know that.

For all we know, Blizzard could introduce as a feature servers that cater to specific expansions.

That could cause a surge.

Or finally finding a balance between the casuals and hardcore.

You can't know that and neither can I.

Hell the amount of subscribers for WoW could actually stay at 10 million for 20 years.

If that honestly happened, I'd laugh my ass off.

And why would it be disappointing if WoW is still successful?

Oh c'mon we do know that. Increasing the subscriber base by 20% is absolutely amazing there is no way that Blizzard, or any other company in their position, would keep this quiet.

If subs have remained steady after two of the biggest opportunities to increase them, in the form of Christmas and a Chinese expansion launch, then it is disappointing. This does not take away from the fact that WOW is successful and will remain so for years to come.

[Giants41]

I would say 9 million if i had to bet. This is a complete guess.

[Destil]

Oh c'mon we do know that. Increasing the subscriber base by 20% is absolutely amazing there is noway that Blizzard, or any other company in their position, would keep this quiet.

If subs have remained steady after two of the biggest opportunities to increase them, in the form of Christmas and a Chinese expansion launch, then it is disappointing. This does not take away from the fact that WOW is successful and will remain so for years to come.

You didn't answer my question.

I'm still confused as to how them getting more subs or having the same number of subs is disappointing.

Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what you're saying.

[Evil Inside]

It is not going to be 12 million, there is no way Blizzard would have kept quiet about what would be a miraculous turn around. If the subs remain at 10 million it is slightly disappointing but nothing to worry about.

Wait.. Not losing any subs is disappointing?