Subscription predictions for next quarter!

[Erik Shyster]

I really thought it would add up by another million wow has been good

[Mawnix]

9.1 million before mop

So what happens if you're right and the game just keep declining and nothing changes.

What's in it for you?

[But I Hate You All]

So what happens if you're right and the game just keep declining and nothing changes.

What's in it for you?

answered that question on post #69

[skitzy129]

These threads are so pointless.

Subs will be between 8 and 12 million like they have been for a long ass time. Neither end of that spectrum matters, as it still shows complete and utter dominance, and it will stay that way for quite a long time to come.

[Mawnix]

answered that question on post #69

And what if the game is truly fine as it is right now and WoW's only losing subscribers because the MMO trend and popularity of WoW is dwindling?

Kinda means the game can't help it.

What then?

[BenBos]

9.1 million before mop

10.2 and 10.3 million before that 2nd quarter in 2012. (9.1 M)

9.1 M was the ONLY quarter where this happened and after that quarter the 10+M subs number was reached again by the launch of MoP.

Now what did launch again in that second quarter of 2012 ?: Right ANOTHER Blizzard game selling a whopping 10.000.000 copies throughout that ... 2nd Quarter

You can easely see the influence of that new Blizzard fantasy game on Warcraft Realms in that period.

---

D3 launch had a HUGE impact on WOW play back in that quarter, not only by numbers, but also by promotional links AND of course a real lack of summer content for WOW.

The moment WOW 5.0 launched in beta you see the numbers grow on these graphs.


TLDR:
No matter how you turn it: WOW never went lower than 10M - except for one quarter where another fantasy Blizzard game launched that sold 10.000.000 copies in that quarter alone.

After that quarter WOW immediately went up to 10M subs again.... DESPITE the launch of a new hugely promoted free to play MMORPG a month earlier...

I really think that anyone "dreaming" for a loss to 9 Million again this winter is just taking his WOW hate dream for granted.

[Azrile]

14 million.

EvE doesn't have 500k, it has 200k at most.

Plus the fact that you can pay your subscription using ingame currency... yeah. When one-month subscription codes start showing up on the BMAH, we can compare.

[But I Hate You All]

And what if the game is truly fine as it is right now and WoW's only losing subscribers because the MMO trend and popularity of WoW is dwindling?

Kinda means the game can't help it.

What then?

I do not know I am not a blizzard employee. I would guess they would cut back resources for it as said in post 69

[Mawnix]

I do not know I am not a blizzard employee. I would guess they would cut back resources for it as said in post 69

I mean for you personally.

What if everything you hope for doesn't happen and WoW simply succeeds and is completely fine for a few more years, along with still having a TON of subscribers.

[But I Hate You All]

10.2 and 10.3 million before that 2nd quarter in 2012. (9.1 M)

9.1 M was the ONLY quarter where this happened and after that quarter the 10+M subs number was reached again by the launch of MoP.

Now what did launch again in that second quarter of 2012 ?: Right ANOTHER Blizzard game selling a whopping 10.000.000 copies throughout that ... 2nd Quarter

You can easely see the influence of that new Blizzard fanatasy game on Warcraft Realms in that period.

---

D3 launch had a HUGE impact on WOW play back in that quarter, not only by numbers, but also by promotional links AND of course a real lack of summer content for WOW.

The moment WOW 5.0 launched in beta you see the numbers grow on these graphs.


TLDR:
No matter how you turn it: WOW never went lower than 10M - except for one quarter where another fantasy Blizzard launched that sold 10.000.000 copies in that quarter alone.

After that quarter WOW immediately went up to 10M subs again.

Other factors you did not take in account. New x pac they really can not push one of them out every mo. People were in the annual pass and should be out of it now.

Also there is no denying they lost 24% of their player base from 2011 and 2012.

---------- Post added 2013-02-02 at 06:00 PM ----------

I mean for you personally.

What if everything you hope for doesn't happen and WoW simply succeeds and is completely fine for a few more years, along with still having a TON of subscribers.

What if Blizzard makes me the CEO of blizzard ?

Anyways the thread is not what does the sub number mean to me so stop trying to derail it.

[Deleted]

I think we should all agree, if the subscription numbers go up by 100-200k we should all make a forum post named "WoW is going strong it will never die!!!" and "WoW subs RISING! maybe it will keep going up as fast as the world population"

just me 2 cents

[Ulfric Trumpcloak]

It will be 8-8.5mill in my opinion and it should keep going down, the game is currently not fun its been practically the same for 8 years and it is finally getting boring for a lot of ppl. I believe games like swtor and rift can provide the same entertainment wow provides if not more but ppl are so hooked with wow that they wont give those games a chance, anyways i am done with wow for good, i play games for entertainment and wow doesnt provide it...

[Immitis]

I think we should all agree, if the subscription numbers go up by 100-200k we should all make a forum post named "WoW is going strong it will never die!!!" and "WoW subs RISING! maybe it will keep going up as fast as the world population"

just me 2 cents

tbh id rather people just learn to shut up about subs and play the game if they like it and shut up and leave if they dont. to many people quit the game then linger on longer than they need to

---------- Post added 2013-02-02 at 09:07 PM ----------

It will be 8-8.5mill in my opinion and it should keep going down, the game is currently not fun its been practically the same for 8 years and it is finally getting boring for a lot of ppl. I believe games like swtor and rift can provide the same entertainment wow provides if not more but ppl are so hooked with wow that they wont give those games a chance, anyways i am done with wow for good, i play games for entertainment and wow doesnt provide it...

not fun for you. still fun for tons of other people.

do you know that over 30 million players have quit wow and never came back? the vast majority of wow players havent been around for 8 years

[BenBos]

Other factors you did not take in account. New x pac they really can not push one of them out every mo. People were in the annual pass and should be out of it now.

Also there is no denying they lost 24% of their player base from 2011 and 2012.[COLOR="red"]

[.

It is quite evident that the D3 launch had a huge impact. Excluding this launch the last 3 quarters stood at 10.3, 10.2 and 10+ million (up from 9.1 due to MoP).

Also 2012 was the most challenging year for WOW for 5 reasons:

- Launch of SW TOR (some expected 2 to 3 million WOW sub losses from those 10.3 million at the end of 2012).
- Launch of its own Diablo 3 game.
- Launch of GW2 that would even take top 1 positions (or so they thought) as it has no subs ...
- Free to play as the NEW standard in almost everything else that had an MMORPG name on it (WoT, the old games, etc...)
- Non MMO games that are free to play.

So what did we see AFTER all this green grass has been published and spread ?

We'll see it in just a few days. But if WOW is still at 10M + subs after ALL the above, I reckon you're in for a new hobby...as a WOW hater.

[Pfeff]

No, it doesnt matter period, you are not an investor

You sure ?

[Deleted]

>>>>>>> please <<<<<<<<<
DISTINGUISH
between
WOW and US / EU subs
which
are
NOT
the SAME

[But I Hate You All]

It is quite evident that the D3 launch had a huge impact. Excluding this launch the last 3 quarters stood at 10.3, 10.2 and 10+ million (up from 9.1 due to MoP).

The start of cata was at 12 million subs

Also 2012 was the most challenging year for WOW for 5 reasons:

- Launch of SW TOR (some expected 2 to 3 million WOW sub losses from those 10.3 million at the end of 2012).
- Launch of its own Diablo 3 game.
- Launch of GW2 that would even take top 1 positions (or so they thought) as it has no subs ...
- Free to play as the NEW standard in almost everything else that had an MMORPG name on it (WoT, the old games, etc...)
- Non MMO games that are free to play.

And the combated this

Vp gear shifted to jp, HOT heroics, Annual pass, SOR with a free 80, LFR, Wow sales left and right, new ROF mount.

So what did we see AFTER all this green grass has been published and spread ?

Stop trying to make it in game vs game

We'll see it in just a few days. But if WOW is still at 10M + subs after ALL the above, I reckon you're in for a new hobby...as a WOW hater.

Ah insults So if I am a "wow hater" for saying wow is in a decline what the fuck are you?

[BenBos]

>>>>>>> please <<<<<<<<<
DISTINGUISH
between
WOW and US / EU subs
which
are
NOT
the SAME

It is just a matter of time before US and EU will be linked too. And most EU countries pay the same if not more than the US.

SC2 shows the way: they even deleted the seperate region servers.

Blizzard next plans is just having one giant server cluster per game.

[MoanaLisa]

Activision cash-on-hand at around or somewhere north of 3.0 billion is about correct. They have no debt at the moment either.

http://ycharts.com/companies/ATVI/cash_and_equivalents

Stepping into moderator text for a moment, it's entirely possible for people to discuss this in a civil manner and without reference to other games which inevitably leads to game vs. game shenanigans, infractions and thread closures. Consider yourselves informed. - ML

[Iamanerd]

Why the hell do people care about this so damn much? Seriously get over yourself if you play a game based on its sub numbers.

OT: I don't really no but I guess the numbers will be the same?