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  1. #21
    Immortal mistuhbull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nelle View Post
    Just to add to the statistics, I've been doing Sha on 10 characters, using coin every attempt for 2 months now, that is ~200 personal roll attempts and not seen or heard about anyone actually getting it in the raids, that is ~4000 player rolls not including their possible coin rolls (10 chars, 10 weeks, 40 players).

    Yes I'm a mount collector and last I checked #13 in the world http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=19 - So if I have done these 200 personal attempts for no reason (including the elder coin farming on 9 alts) I will be a very sad panda...
    Assuming a .02% drop chance (equivalent to the original drop of Rivendare's charger) there is a ~45% chance that the mount will not have dropped after 4000 attempts.

    Assuming a .05% drop chance (which is wowhead's listed) there is a ~13% chance for it to have not dropped after 4000 attempts
    Low drop=low drop
    Last edited by mistuhbull; 2013-02-07 at 04:32 AM.
    Theron/Bloodwatcher 2013!

    Quote Originally Posted by Alsompr View Post
    Teasing, misdirection. It's the opposite of a spoiler. People expect one thing? BAM! Another thing happens.

    I'm like M. Night fucking Shamylan.

  2. #22
    Wowhead lists the droprate at 0.05% which means that at some point in all the Sha kills someone with the wowhead addon looted it and uploaded the data.

  3. #23
    The Lightbringer Seranthor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Germs View Post
    LOLOL This must be a troll.
    Actually it looks like an orc hunter to me... but you might want to look a little closer.

    --- Want any of my Constitutional rights?, ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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  4. #24
    Pandaren Monk Issalice's Avatar
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    I have never seen either drop before, nor have I seen either mount out in the world. I'm on Area 52, lots of people, I've seen all other mounts, but not these. I did hop over to check wowhead and see that the heavenly onyx serpent has dropped once, Son of Galleon has zero drops listed.

    Correct me if I am wrong, aren't the loot counts on wowhead provided by people uploading their date via a program you download from the site? So if someone has received the mount but doesn't use the program it wouldn't be counted. Or I could be entirely wrong about this.

  5. #25
    i have some doubt too... i play on thrall eu and never saw it. and i saw invincible elegons mount multitple times as well as mimirons head. i think sha gets killed a lot more then yogg saron +0
    so even if the chance is much lower it should still drop way more often. i really want tos ee an armory profile that has it

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Issalice View Post
    I have never seen either drop before, nor have I seen either mount out in the world. I'm on Area 52, lots of people, I've seen all other mounts, but not these. I did hop over to check wowhead and see that the heavenly onyx serpent has dropped once, Son of Galleon has zero drops listed.

    Correct me if I am wrong, aren't the loot counts on wowhead provided by people uploading their date via a program you download from the site? So if someone has received the mount but doesn't use the program it wouldn't be counted. Or I could be entirely wrong about this.
    Wowhead shows everything on Sha's loot table as having dropped exactly once, which probably happened in beta at some point because Sha only actually drops one item, the claw quest item. Everything else is deposited in players' bags, which wowhead apparently can't track.

  7. #27
    Pandaren Monk Issalice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drilnos View Post
    Wowhead shows everything on Sha's loot table as having dropped exactly once, which probably happened in beta at some point because Sha only actually drops one item, the claw quest item. Everything else is deposited in players' bags, which wowhead apparently can't track.
    Ah, good to know. I had a feeling I was missing something lol

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Seranthor View Post
    Actually it looks like an orc hunter to me... but you might want to look a little closer.
    So let me get this straight. Since there is a picture of someone riding one, that means it must be dropping on the live servers? Yet not a single person can link an armory page where someone owns the mount. So I'm guessing you also think that the owner of this website personally owns all the items they post previews of since its in a picture?

    Sorry to spoil your day but there are many ways to take a picture like that:
    A. Private server, if the item exists (NOTE: I'M NOT SAYING IT DROPS, JUST THAT THE ITEM ITSELF HAS BEEN CREATED AND ENTERED INTO THE DATABASE) it can be pulled up and used on a private server.
    B. The same programs which make the machinima type movie clips can also use the model.
    C. Perhaps someone obtained it on a PTR build.
    D. Perhaps someone obtained it in the Beta.
    E. Or maybe, just maybe, the person is using one of the many re-skin addons you can get for live servers which changes anything about you on the client side. This includes race, armor, and yes even mounts.

    So no, just because someone is seen in a picture riding one, does NOT mean it must be dropping.

  9. #29
    Not that I buy into this conspiracy but I have noticed something suspicious with the screenshots of these mounts on Wowhead -- Someone has uploaded screenshots of their character on BOTH mounts... that just seems incredibly unlikely, even moreso because the screenshots were uploaded on the same day. The chance of a person getting both mounts is phenomenally low.

    Model hacks could be in play here...

  10. #30
    The Lightbringer Seranthor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Germs View Post
    So let me get this straight. Since there is a picture of someone riding one, that means it must be dropping on the live servers? Yet not a single person can link an armory page where someone owns the mount. So I'm guessing you also think that the owner of this website personally owns all the items they post previews of since its in a picture?

    Sorry to spoil your day but there are many ways to take a picture like that:
    A. Private server, if the item exists (NOTE: I'M NOT SAYING IT DROPS, JUST THAT THE ITEM ITSELF HAS BEEN CREATED AND ENTERED INTO THE DATABASE) it can be pulled up and used on a private server.
    B. The same programs which make the machinima type movie clips can also use the model.
    C. Perhaps someone obtained it on a PTR build.
    D. Perhaps someone obtained it in the Beta.
    E. Or maybe, just maybe, the person is using one of the many re-skin addons you can get for live servers which changes anything about you on the client side. This includes race, armor, and yes even mounts.

    So no, just because someone is seen in a picture riding one, does NOT mean it must be dropping.
    1. Not every Wow player visits the official forums.
    2. Not every Wow player visits Wowhead.
    3. Not every Wow player visits THIS forum.
    4. Not every Wow player uploads information to Wowhead.

    Sorry to spoil your conspiracy theories.

    --- Want any of my Constitutional rights?, ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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  11. #31
    I have the mount and its just a reskin

  12. #32
    Now if you actually look at the Guildox site and hover over that "i" it will show you something that might just blow your mind OP, They don't scan every Character in the armory, they use statistical sampling which is defined as

    "Limited number of observations selected from a population on a systematic or random basis, which (upon mathematical manipulation) yield generalizations about the population."

    Check your sources next time....

    Just because you haven't seen it before and you don't seem to believe anyone who has said otherwise doesn't mean that it doesn't exist.

  13. #33
    High Overlord
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    I don't know the name of the toon but I am almost certain that I've seen the Galleon mount on Aerie Peak-US. I saw someone in Halfhill market running by on a Mushan mount and i'm not aware of any other mushan mounts besides that one. Correct me if i'm wrong. Knew I shoulda jotted the name down but it was late and I was just trying to finish my farming before bed.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Seranthor View Post
    1. Not every Wow player visits the official forums.
    2. Not every Wow player visits Wowhead.
    3. Not every Wow player visits THIS forum.
    4. Not every Wow player uploads information to Wowhead.

    Sorry to spoil your conspiracy theories.
    Not every Wow player suddenly gets amnesia when a very sought after mount drops for someone in their raid group.
    Not every Wow player on every server suddenly gets amnesia and forgets the name of someone riding that mount.
    Not every Wow player who "has that mount" suddenly logged off and stayed off their account since the first thread popped up on the forums.
    It would be very simple with how big this thread has gotten to just log on to your server and see at least one person riding it considering there are at least 16 US servers with populations reaching over 10k, and link their armory to end this debate.

    Not to mention the fact that Guildox is doing exactly what you said no one is doing in #4. But your right, it probably does drop. Guildox is able to pick up active accounts with the Black Qiraji Resonating Crystal and not this mount which is from current content and able to be killed every 15 min on every server by thousands of people.
    Last edited by Germs; 2013-02-07 at 05:26 AM.

  15. #35
    Warchief Byniri's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tutonious View Post
    I don't know the name of the toon but I am almost certain that I've seen the Galleon mount on Aerie Peak-US. I saw someone in Halfhill market running by on a Mushan mount and i'm not aware of any other mushan mounts besides that one. Correct me if i'm wrong. Knew I shoulda jotted the name down but it was late and I was just trying to finish my farming before bed.
    There is an item that you can use to temporarily summon a mushan 'mount'

    Here: http://www.wowhead.com/item=89682
    PEPE SILVA, PEPE SILVA

  16. #36
    The Lightbringer Seranthor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Germs View Post
    Not every Wow player suddenly gets amnesia when a very sought after mount drops for someone in their raid group.
    Not every Wow player on every server suddenly gets amnesia and forgets the name of someone riding that mount.
    Not every Wow player who "has that mount" suddenly logged off and stayed off their account since the first thread popped up on the forums.
    It would be very simple with how big this thread has gotten to just log on to your server and see at least one person riding it considering there are at least 16 US servers with populations reaching over 10k, and link their armory to end this debate.

    Not to mention the fact that Guildox is doing exactly what you said no one is doing in #4. But your right, it probably does drop. Guildox is able to pick up active accounts with the Black Qiraji Resonating Crystal and not this mount which is from current content and able to be killed every 15 min on every server by thousands of people.
    its apparent that you are convinced that it doesn't exist, since I dont have it I'll be unable provide a picture of me riding it to taunt you with. I am however, convinced it DOES exist. That said I will wander away and go kill the Sha with my 10th toon for the week... g'day.

    --- Want any of my Constitutional rights?, ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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  17. #37
    I am Murloc! Airwaves's Avatar
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    http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=30

    That isn't a very good count of mounts. There are a bunch missing. Not just the Sha and galleon mounts. Tell me can you see sunrever dragonhawk in that list? because i can't (I may just be blind) but there are other mount missing.
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  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Airwaves View Post
    http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=30

    That isn't a very good count of mounts. There are a bunch missing. Not just the Sha and galleon mounts. Tell me can you see sunrever dragonhawk in that list? because i can't (I may just be blind) but there are other mount missing.
    Number 209. Which other is missing?
    Last edited by Germs; 2013-02-07 at 05:53 AM.

  19. #39
    I don't have a screenshot or anything to show you guys as proof, but I have seen at least one person on the Heavenly Onyx Cloud Serpent before (US Moon Guard). MG is one of the higher population realms, so that probably helps. It's quite easy to spot since the only other black cloud serpent is the regular Onyx Cloud Serpent, which doesn't have the bright white features on its skin.

    I can't say anything for Galleon, because Horde keeps it on farm, but I'll keep an eye out and grab a screenshot if I see the Serpent.
    Last edited by Hitei; 2013-02-07 at 05:57 AM.
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  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Soratrox View Post
    I don't have a screenshot or anything to show you guys as proof, but I have seen at least one person on the Heavenly Onyx Cloud Serpent before (US Moon Guard). MG is one of the higher population realms, so that probably helps. It's quite easy to spot since the only other black cloud serpent is the regular Onyx Cloud Serpent, which doesn't have the bright white features on its skin.

    I can't say anything for Galleon, because Horde keeps it on farm, but I'll keep an eye out and grab a screenshot if I see the Serpent.
    As posted numerous times on the full battle net forum post, without an armory link this means nothing. As of now it more or less does not exist. Unless someone can post a link to the armory showing someone has it.

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