I have personally seen someone on Frostwolf-US server on the Galleon mount, it was the first month of the xpac though.
Considering the sample size of the forum population and the sample size of guildox (compounded by the fact these mounts are account bound), considering that we have not seen one person with concrete evidence that they have the item. I am inclined to agree with the OP. I suspect this item is yet to be seen on live.
Some interesting math from the official thread to corroborate this:
If you try and average high and low pop servers, you can make a rough guess at about 50 kills a week.
50 kills * 40 people = 2000 chances at loot (assuming they're not locked)
2000 chances * 500 servers = 100,000 chances of loot a week.... a week.
MoP has been out for ~19 weeks or so but lets give everyone two weeks to hit max level just for the sake of argument.
That means that 17 * 100,000 = 1,700,000 chances at the mount so far. Lets also assume that there's a .1% chance, which is on par with some of the other extremely rare mounts.
I could be doing the math wrong, but that's somewhere close to a 2.13×10^-739 chance that no one has looted this yet.
To those of you that can't do math, that's essentially the same thing as 0% that no one has it yet.
Oh right the coins! Ok then lets assume for the sake of argument that 1 out of ten people uses a coin on this boss.
That means 1,700,000 x 1.1 (1 out of ten people = 1,870,000 kills total.
That brings us to a 2.90×10^-813 % chance that it hasn't dropped yet.
If you were a scientist at NASA, you would have given up at 2.9X10^-2 and everyone would assume it was impossible.
This is starting to look like an equally impossible scenario
Last edited by Rhyseh; 2013-02-07 at 06:24 AM.
I get that you guys want to turn this into some sort of conspiracy or something but come on...
No, I don't have the person's armory or a screenshot.
Because I wasn't like "Oh man, what a cool mount, I bet in a couple months no one is going to believe that it exists, let me bookmark this persons armory page and take a screenshot as proof I saw it!"
I just thought it was pretty awesome and made sure to do Sha every week to try and get it, but then gave up since everyone was using cloud serpents anyway.
It's not that you are lying it's simply that you were mistaken. As was previously posted AS WELL, it is very easy for an idea to be planted into your mind. You saw something that looked similar to it and now thinking about it you are convinced it was the mount when it simply was not. There is absolutely no proof that these mounts exist and anecdotal evidence will never lend credence to their being real.
Sigh...please, please, please if you are going to post here read it all.
That drop was from the beta, not live realms.
i still want to see someone armory link with it :<
It's nothing personal, I just don't believe the text that is typed on the mmoc forums by a faceless stranger.
All of Sha of Angers loot is listed as dropping 1 time because the loot needs to be linked to the boss so when you look up the name of the mount it will be linked with the Sha. And no drops will be tracked on wowhead because the gear from the Sha of Anger is looted to you, not dropped on the bosses body.
TLDR: We want an armory link. If you don't have one, don't post. /thread
On a more serious note, I don't believe for a second that that mount has never dropped on live. I have no reason to doubt the validity of either the wowhead comments or the screenshots (the three of them, all from mid-late December, at which time the game was live for quite a while). What I do have reason to doubt is the guildox feature, what with the word "beta" writ large in its header and all.
Last edited by Drilnos; 2013-02-07 at 07:19 AM.
There are hundreds of players looting Sha per server per week. Probably thousands on the higher population servers. Many of those players have been using tokens on Sha, either for the mount directly, or for the PVP gear, or the PVE gear. How many rolls on the Sha drop table are we looking at? Tens of thousands per week? Maybe even hundreds? And we can't find one confirmed armory link?
I would absolutely believe the mount is bugged not to drop; if it does exist, the drop rate must be far lower than 1% (which would result in a couple of new mounts every week).
I am pretty confident in saying there is no Sha mount on my server, at least; if there were, the owner would be AFK outside Shrine all day.
I have never seen either of them. I think most of the people who say they have seen the mounts drop are falling for "trolls". I think most of the people who say they have seen the mounts ridden are falling for "trolls" (like the consumable that mounts you on a mushan etc).