This means that drop statistics for loot awarded in the LFR manner (direct to bags) can't be trusted, which by extension means that the 1 listed drop of this mount cannot be trusted.
Do we know how many armory profiles were sampled for the mount? Do we know what the expected drop rate is? If so, does the data meet the requirements for a scientific burden of proof?
The mount has a .05% drop rate as verified.
You've indicated previously that you'll continue believing what you want until Blizzard gives their official word on it, so what else more is there to say? There is no way to conclusively prove they don't drop, but with the amount of evidence suggesting that they don't... it's hard to believe otherwise now.
Not one of those screenshots had the characters name displayed, neither did they show any other players in the picture, even when taken at the Shrine of Seven Stars/Two Moons. One of the Galleon screenshots shows a player in full warrior tier 3, with Corrupted Ashbringer. That's not exactly easy to come by gear either.
Heck, even if the mounts do actually drop, the chances are obviously so astronomically low that they clearly need to be adjusted. Blizzard stated they did not want something that only very few players could get in regards to the Black Qiraji Battle Tank. Consider that if a site like GuildOx hasn't even found one of each, but has still found mounts like the Teal and Green Kodo from WoW's early days (VERY rare mounts, most people with them probably don't even play anymore), that while not 100% accurate, it's got to be close. What are the chances of it not even detecting one person with either? Pretty low.
I don't know what more you want other than Blizzard's word. If so, please leave and just wait for that. They'll hopefully say something eventually.
everything has an 0.05% drop chance, that's the personal loot system screwing with the wowhead addon - as many people have pointed out.
Until such time that either:
a.) Blizzard confirms the mounts are/aren't dropping
b.) Blizzard confirms the armory isn't displaying the new mounts correctly
c.) Someone comes forward and confirms they have one of the mounts (with proof)
Then I'm inclined to agree that neither of the mounts actually exist at this point
Last edited by vmagik; 2013-02-08 at 04:05 AM.
Lol i feel so special knowing that i have a reins of the azure drake and it makes me feel more special i got it at lvl 80 when MoP was released it was my first run of the Eye and i won the roll while i was dead xD
I'm on Thaurissan Horde and when I went to do Galleon the first time, someone had the Galleon mount in the group.
Last edited by Shamanic; 2013-02-08 at 10:19 AM.
Normally I'd write this off as the same pointless exaggeration WoW players love spewing, but honestly, you have to do this in a thread about actual statistical math? Ugh.
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I, too, have seen several Elegon mounts, but never a Sha or Galleon mount. Strikes me as odd, but I'm certainly not going to posit that as proof of neither mount's existence.
Still, is an armory link really that much to ask for?
Ok, these threads are getting incredibly stupid with constant repetitions of the same nonsense, especially from certain moronic trolls.
So lets break it down. A is saying the mounts have never been recorded anywhere as dropping. There is no way to prove a lack of them dropping, so asking for proof is idiotic.
B is saying the mounts do drop. This can be easily proven with an armory link, this cannot be proven with screenshots, tales that your cousin's sister's boyfriend's roommate got one or claims you saw one.
There is only one side of this argument that can be proven without Blizzard. The only evidence provided anywhere on either side is circumstantial and that evidence is hugely in favor of the 'mounts don't drop' side of this argument.
It's not possible to say from anything in any of the threads whether these mounts do or not drop, the only thing that can legitimately be said so far is that it's extremely unlikely they do. You want to claim they do drop? Fine, post something to back it up other than the wowhead loot table which is from PTR, the screenshots that are all posted by barely active untraceable accounts (2 of which are from the same poster and if you think it's possible for nobody on record to be able to be tracked or to post an armory link with either mount yet believe one person has both, you need to go back to school and learn about statistics) or random anecdotal stories that you saw one.
How did Elegon's mount get in this topic its about the Sha and Galleon mounts there is nothing wrong the the Elegon mount Except that i don't have one.
There's definitely something wrong with it.
Sha of Anger is incredibly much more easier than Elegon (10 or 25) and I bet more players kill Sha of Anger weekly than Elegon. And so I'd expect the Reins of the Heavenly Onyx Cloud Serpent's page to be littered with screenshots but as we have come to expect, there are no screenshots (or there were around three but were recently taken down due to this issue at hand).
Compare that to the Reins of the Astral Cloud Serpent's page. There's 18 of them and I have personally seen it in my server multiple times.