Activision Blizzard stocks UP 11.19 % in ONE day after the earning calls.

[BenBos]

...then tell me, why DIDN'T the stocks jump up 11.19% or close to that at any single time durring Cata's time? Or Wrath - when the subs were at their highest? Right now there's WAY more competition against WoW than durring any of those expansions - and back then they had HIGHER subs!

You seriously think that WoW reporting a 400+ K sub LOSS is what bumped up those?

That's a very good question but easy to answer. A lot of factors bumped it up but WOW subs is no negative influence anymore.

In 2009 and 2011 WOW still had a SUBSCRIPTIONS competition...

In late 2011... WOW was expected to loose between 3 to 4 million subscribers due to the upcoming competition of the next big things.

These turned into free to play stuff in mid to late 2012 with the end result of having less competitive subs based games than expected.

It is a market mechanism of expectancy. People forget that WOW had the biggest challenges yet in late 2011.

2013 sees less pressure by lack of subscription based players on the same market.

At the same time --- in 2012 --- free to play games and IPad thingies did not make the huge impact it was expected to make. As free to play games on the internet = NOT equal to steady income revenue (see the crash on Zynga and Facebook, both UNDERPERFORMED in revenue DESPITE huge "user"/"player" numbers).

It is only logical that WOW subs no longer have this negative influence as P2P apparently proves to be more reliable than F2P.

[Azrile]

They already have, they're putting this on CoD and Skylanders...

I am a huge fanboy of WOW. But fact is fact.. the jump today was because of Skylanders (mainly). WOW helped ATVI beat the numbers, which was a good thing, but not nearly enough to cause a 10% rise. The actual subscriber number was probably barely looked it. If WOW had dropped to 7M but earned a crapload of money selling a mount which made revenues be where they were today, the stock would have jumped 10% anyway.

Tech stocks do not jump 10% because of ´holding subscribers´. Stock prices are FUTURE oriented and tech stocks in particular need to have a narrative going forward, and that is Skylanders.

[Pann]

That's a very good question but easy to answer. A lot of factors bumped it up but WOW subs is no negative influence anymore.

In 2009 and 2011 WOW still had a SUBSCRIPTIONS competition...

In late 2011... WOW was expected to loose between 3 to 4 million subscribers due to the upcoming competition of the next big things.

These turned into free to play stuff in mid to late 2012 with the end result of having less competitive subs based games than expected.

it is amarket mechanism of expectancy. People forget that WOW had the biggest challenges yet in late 2011.

2013 sees less pressure by lack of subscription based players on the same market.

Despite it apparently being an easy question to answer you have not done so.

Who expected WOW to lose 3 to 4 million subscribers?

If stock holders were primarily concerned about WOW why would ATVI stock rise in the face of falling sub numbers?

[BenBos]

I am a huge fanboy of WOW. But fact is fact.. the jump today was because of Skylanders (mainly). WOW helped ATVI beat the numbers, which was a good thing, but not nearly enough to cause a 10% rise. The actual subscriber number was probably barely looked it. If WOW had dropped to 7M but earned a crapload of money selling a mount which made revenues be where they were today, the stock would have jumped 10% anyway.

Tech stocks do not jump 10% because of ´holding subscribers´. Stock prices are FUTURE oriented and tech stocks in particular need to have a narrative going forward, and that is Skylanders.

I can quote several stock traders in late 2011 who published they saw WOW loose 3 to 4 million subscriptions to SW TOR. Actually several of them expected it to beat WOW subscriptions as early as mid 2012...

The moment the market changed, the expectancy changed. This along with the clear proof that those huge numbers of free to play games could not be turned into steady money streams was a turning point.

the PRESENT situation as such is clear.

More than 1 billion dollars per year on a subscription based game that is the only vast one in the market plays a role in this steady stream of revenue.

That changed during 2012: you no longer have several potential players in that 1+ billion steady income (sub based) market...

It is that total revenue from MMO play that plays in another new market situation.

Why do you think ATVI publishes several colons on the MMO part in their sheets ?

MMORPG players are not awakened yet... but simply put : the subscription based 2013 market has only one (and a half) player left to grab the 1 billion dollar(mostly western) market and it simply did in revenue.

That's why Morhaime says they lost only in China..

[Bethrezen]

Owned over 30 shares for over 2 years now. This news doesn't at all surprise me, and just solidifies my future retirement further alongside my Navy ventures. It's good to understand economics + gaming!

[Nerraw]

Despite it apparently being an easy question to answer you have not done so.

Who expected WOW to lose 3 to 4 million subscribers?

If stock holders were primarily concerned about WOW why would ATVI stock rise in the face of falling sub numbers?

Some dude a couple of weeks ago stood his ground that he believed WoW would have shed 4 million people in the last quarter.

[Pann]

Some dude a couple of weeks ago stood his ground that he believed WoW would have shed 4 million people in the last quarter.

Ah, so investors now make their decisions based on some dude. Brilliant!

[BenBos]

Ah, so investors now make their decisions based on some dude. Brilliant!

Why do you think we lost all that money back in 2008 ?

[WarpKnight]

Some dude a couple of weeks ago stood his ground that he believed WoW would have shed 4 million people in the last quarter.

Oh lawdy.. the hate is intense.

Why are people so preoccupied with how others spend their gaming time? Why do people post about a game they supposedly no longer play? I'll never know..

[Gsara]

COD is starting to decline, WOW is in decline, Starcraft is successful but not in the league of WOW or COD. Skylanders has the potential to the next Star Wars, Transformers, TMNT, Cabbage Patch, Power Rangers, Furby, etc.

Being "in decline" is only a personal belief. An MMO with 9+ million subs, another cod that will sell like hotcakes, and an xac to the fastest selling rpg of all time(3 million the first month) shows no indicators of big decline. They are solid profit thats all. The solid profits plus the new things on the board coming in 2013 made the stock jump because when you look at the whole package it looks like a good investment for the year. I agree Skylanders is a big part of that but the rest isnt just trivial by any means.

[Pann]

Being "in decline" is only a personal belief. An MMO with 9+ million subs, another cod that will sell like hotcakes, and an xac to the fastest selling rpg of all time(3 million the first month) shows no indicators of big decline. They are solid profit thats all. The solid profits plus the new things on the board coming in 2013 made the stock jump because when you look at the whole package it looks like a good investment for the year. I agree Skylanders is a big part of that but the rest isnt just trivial by any means.

It is not a personal belief, the last COD saw a 14% decrease in sales compared to the previous game. WOW has less subscribers than it did last year and the year before that and it is likely at the end of this year to have even less.

Why do you think we lost all that money back in 2008 ?

I would guess it is a toss up between living in a fantasy world and listening to some dude.

[BenBos]

It is not a personal belief, the last COD saw a 14% decrease in sales compared to the previous game. WOW has less subscribers than it did last year and the year before that and it is likely at the end of this year to have even less.

But the only thing that counts is the bottom line really and that says Blizzard is bringing in a steady stream of income through subs and other on line gaming. Just like COD. And that income (at least for Blizzard) was never higher EVER.

Investors look at the markets and at $$$ signs,

In the past 2012 year they looked too much at potential numbers (see Zynga) and forgot the bottom $$$ line. Subscription based games are a steady flow of income and Blizzard now has that subscription market uncontested (so they think). That matters. Not some 100 k more or less subs.

that's the backlash.

[Azrile]

Just for that one person who thinks the price today has anything to do with WOW.

This is the SeekingAlpha writeup concerning the ATVI earnings repot

Not only does it not mention wow subscribers, it doesn´t even mention WOW at all.

I love WOW, but thinking it has anything to do with the stock today is wrong

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1169...y?source=yahoo

[Varabently]

Today ATVI stock jumped 11.19% after the earnings call of yesterday.

Macquarie upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform.

Investors were impressed with the overall revenue performance.

Anyone has stocks ?

Netflix was up 37% in one day, what's the big deal? ATVI has been languishing in the $11-$12 range for a long time. One day won't make a difference.

[Azrile]

It is not a personal belief, the last COD saw a 14% decrease in sales compared to the previous game. WOW has less subscribers than it did last year and the year before that and it is likely at the end of this year to have even less.



I would guess it is a toss up between living in a fantasy world and listening to some dude.

Not true. Last year WOW had 9.1M subscribers, now it has 9.6M

[Pann]

But the only thing that counts is the bottom line really and that says Blizzard is bringing in a steady stream of income through subs and other on line gaming. Just like COD. And that income (at least for Blizzard) was never higher EVER.

Investors look at the markets and at $$$ signs,

In the past 2012 year they looked too much at potential numbers (see Zynga) and forgot the bottom $$$ line. Subscription based games are a steady flow of income and Blizzard now has that market uncontested (so they think). That matters. Not some 100 k more or less subs.

that's the backlash.

You don't make sense. You say that the bottom line is the only thing that counts and then say that investors forgot to look at the bottom line. Only an idiot would look exclusively at the bottom line when investing their money, this goes to prove what they say about a fool and his money.

Not true. Last year WOW had 9.1M subscribers, now it has 9.6M

Last year WOW had 10.2 million subscribers which I'm sure you'll agree is more than it has now.

[Destil]

Ah, so investors now make their decisions based on some dude. Brilliant!

I took a nap for 2 hours and you two are STILL at one another's throats?

Give it a rest.

[BenBos]

Not true. Last year WOW had 9.1M subscribers, now it has 9.6M

While the so called announced 2011 competition vanished to 0.000.000 subs...

You still think this had no impact ? Even http://mmodata.net/ is no longer updating its site ...

hey guys ... I need to turn to 2005 before I could find LESS competition in the sub based market than this year ...

[Azrile]

You don't make sense. You say that the bottom line is the only thing that counts and then say that investors forgot to look at the bottom line. Only an idiot would look exclusively at the bottom line when investing their money, this goes to prove what they say about a fool and his money.




Last year WOW had 10.2 million subscribers which I'm sure you'll agree is more than it has now.

Last year at this time, WOW had 9.1M subscribers. Anyone with any common sense would either look at year-over-year numbers, or at the very least compare point-in-time with expansions. WOW has always had ups and downs depending on the cycle within an expansion. It really calls out your bias that you can´t even begin to have a rational thought. Talking to you about anything related to WOW is like talking to someone about politics who watches Fox 10 hours a day.

WOW has 9.6M subscribers and earns a billion dollars a year.. any other MMO that you happen to think is even remotely close has well less than 1M subscribers, and almost all of them are free. AOC lost 50% of it´s subscribers in 3 months after launch, SWTOR was about the same. 50% loss a few months after launch... and you really think WOW is terrible because it lost 10% of it´s subscribers 6 months after an expansion launched?

Give it up dude, you will be on these forums for the next 4 years saying the same crap, and always talking about the impending doom and death of WOW. Cata was a bad expansion and cost the game some subs, but since the lowpoint of Cata, the game is UP by more subscribers ( .5M) than most games have total in players.

So really, tell us, what is your MMO?

[Buu]

Not saying that ATVI don't deserve that increase. In fact I do think both them and Ubisoft have the good prospects in the mid-term future. The problem is that investors look more and more like morons that believe in this PR BS of "future incoming revenues" from EVERYONE. Game developers only have to make up some fancy numbers, and they'll buy.

Namely EA that presented a business plan that have been cutting their profits for the last 2 years, and made up numbers, blaming "the market", and without ANY explanation saying they hope "the market" will magically change by itself. And with those changes in "the market", their business plan will make them the most rich corporation in gaming, overnight.

Although I stated my faith on Activision-Blizzard, because they REALLY have solid, modest, on the ground plans, I can't help but to think investors ran to ATVI because unicorns said they will be rich, just like with EA.