# Thread: So Jin'Rokh the Breaker has 21 items on his loot table

1. I have 4 possible weapons in ToT as a hunter.

One drops off Tortos, a 20 item loot table. Assume they drop equally (we already know this isn't true and less-represented items that are for singular classes, like bows for hunters, tend to have lower drop rate than int cloth, for example). That would give the item a 5% drop rate.

In 10 man, you have a (1- (1/20)) * (1- (1/19)) chance it won't drop in a given week, which, as someone pointed out, is a 90% chance it won't drop, week to week. Over 10 weeks, that chance of it never dropping is 0.9^10, or 35% chance it will never drop in 10 weeks.

In 25 man, on a given week you can up to 2 repeats of an item I believe, so you have a (0.95^2) * (0.948^2) * (0.945^2) chance, or 72.4% best case for it to not drop (worst case is 6 unique items, or (0.95^6) = 73.5% to not drop in a given week). Over 10 weeks, this gives a range of 3.95%-4.6% chance for the item to not drop. So, unless you have 10 hunters in your raid to our 1, your hunters will get this bow long before I do.

But surely I'll get one weapon, right? No one knows where two of the bows drop from, one is rumored to be a trash drop, which means, guess what, no heroic version for me. Another is conjectured to be off Iron Qon.

1/20 chance on Tortos x 2 as non-tier
1/20 chance on Durumu x 2 as non-tier
1/11 chance on Iron Qon (speculation) x 1 as tier boss.

As above, I have a 90% chance on both those first bosses to never see the bow in a given week in a 10 man, and 91% chance to not see it off Iron Qon. That means I have a 73.7% chance not to see ANY ranged weapon in a given week (still higher than the individual chance to not see a weapon off any specific boss in 25 man). Over 10 weeks, that means I have a 4.72% chance of not seeing a weapon (1 in 20 almost, and that's enough RNG to make me cringe).

In 25 man, I have, as above, a 73.5% worst case chance to not see a weapon off those first two bosses, but I have a (0.909^4) = 68.2% chance not to see the weapon off Iron Qon (remember, 25 man drops 2 tier pieces, 4 non-tier pieces). That means in ONE WEEK of 25 man, I have a (.735^2) * .682 = 36.8% chance of not seeing a ranged weapon in a given week. Already, in a given week, you're seeing more than a double chance of getting a ranged weapon than a 10 man hunter. Over 10 weeks, this is a 0.0045% (yes, that's 0.000045) that you will not see a ranged weapon. The chance of seeing 3 weapons over 10 weeks is 99.995%^3, or 99.986%, and no 25 man I know has more than 3 hunters.

Surely the math is fairly clear about how different the the gearing is. Factor in less role diversity in 10 man and thus a higher chance of sharding something, and it's even worse.

2. A lot of whining over loot if you care so much play 25. Simple.

3. This many loot items means you will have a lot of options. The Devs said that "the game was better when everyone didn't expect to fully complete BiS", and that is something I fully agree with. As great as it is to actually finish it, you enjoy the journey and not the result, it's the journey that's supposed to be fun.

There will probably be a lot of loot options, and with the addition of thunderforged it will add another dimension of loot, and I suspect very few people will actually be able to finish a full BiS set unless they're in a top guild and have a lot of help from a loot council. And after all that's good, everyone isn't supposed to have the same gear.

4. Originally Posted by Megazorrd
A lot of whining over loot if you care so much play 25. Simple.
Oh yes cause getting 24 other well skilled players with the time to raid all at once is so easy to do now a day how do you do it so well?

5. Originally Posted by eschatological

In 25 man, I have, as above, a 73.5% worst case chance to not see a weapon off those first two bosses, but I have a (0.909^4) = 68.2% chance not to see the weapon off Iron Qon (remember, 25 man drops 2 tier pieces, 4 non-tier pieces). That means in ONE WEEK of 25 man, I have a (.735^2) * .682 = 36.8% chance of not seeing a ranged weapon in a given week. Already, in a given week, you're seeing more than a double chance of getting a ranged weapon than a 10 man hunter. Over 10 weeks, this is a 0.0045% (yes, that's 0.000045) that you will not see a ranged weapon. The chance of seeing 3 weapons over 10 weeks is 99.995%^3, or 99.986%, and no 25 man I know has more than 3 hunters.

Surely the math is fairly clear about how different the the gearing is. Factor in less role diversity in 10 man and thus a higher chance of sharding something, and it's even worse.
Well im raiding in a 25-man. I'm a rogue. Even if i kill Msv 1st boss in heroic 8 times and in normas like 13/14 times... i saw until now 3 dagger. 3 normals dagger's. Now even 1 heroic. Ok about this..

Let's see Lei Shei
I have 12 Kills.
In 25-man i get my sha dagger 2 ...weeks.....ago...
In 10-man the other group saw dagger 3 times ...in 4 kills.

Now let's see 3 Rogues.
1 rogue at the end of patch doesn't even have sha touched weapon even from Lfr....
A yes...Look at this...Same thing with Hunter's...3 Hunters atm ...Only 1 Has Normal version... and obtained 2 months ago when we breakerfor 10-man... 2 others despite the kills are with Lfr and no Sha 1 ...

Rng is rng .
And the worse you forgot competition in 25-man.
In 10-man if the weapon gonna drop is your's. In 25-man...You have like...Caster dpsers even 10 more people needing on 1 weapon...
Another funny thing. 2 ferals...3 rogues..4 monk's.. +1 monk tank.. That's 10=people agi users' say 9 putting off the tank.. Put now 3 Hunters aswell// Put elegon kill and 1 agi trinket ( 4 weeks in 25-man we saw ..1 trinket....f...amazing ). That's 12 people needing for 1 trinket.. and at the end 11 people...That's 90% people for 1 months didn't see a bis item like trinket in 1 month raiding despite raiding as 25-man...
And i recall some people with os from 10-man having the trinket in 3 kill..
Rng is Rng.

How many hunters you raid in your 10-man? 1 ? 2 ? 3? Answer is one. If the items drops is your so this is 100%
Now in 25-man if the're gonna drop 1 bow...this is 33.3%...

Anyway got sick of this.
If you think is better for 25-man go ahead and raid as 25-man.. A yes....you dislike loosing an item by another hunter..Logic.
Stick with 10-man and enjoy.

6. it would be nice if the system(s) was a little smarter, in a few ways, but mainly if u already have an item on or in your inventory, your coin shouldn't give it to you again. or if the boss drop system could avoid dropping the same items multiple weeks in a row. either of these would make me more comfortable with the table sizes, as it stands now i worry about what a lot of people mentioned, seeing the same 4-5 items out of 20 on every boss every week and never seeing the ones the group needs.

7. While a larger loot table makes it harder for an individual player to get a specific item, the diversity in items is a big benefit to the raid as a whole. If you are interested in the overall success of the raid as opposed to whether you are getting "your" shield or ranged or whatever Special Item You Really Need then you will be happy when you see large loot tables.

Also, apparently everyone will have Ra'Den on farm in a month.

8. I just hope the loot is itemized evenly, I don't want to see another Taoren the Soul Burner (MY SHA TOUCH WEAPON!!) which dropped on our 12th normal kill for me, second hunter never received his one, only LFR. Tsulong healing trinket didn't dropped even ONCE, over 4 months of farming normal TES. So we (hunters) had only one viable weapon option, that was coming from TOKEN boss (only 1 regular item drop slot in 10man) instead we had SIX DIFFERENT FUCKING CHESTPIECE CHOICES!!! Yes you see that right, 6 god damn mail agility chests at 496 or better item level (galleon, craftable, Tier, stoneguard HC [502], Zorlok and Tsulong&Lei shared loot). What's even better there were six chest pieces but NO heroic 509-grade bracers. Only 502 ones from MV.

Large loot tables are OK if the loot is evenly distributed, ie. say 2 items for every slot/spec. Having one slot that has million different items (therefore producing only crystals at certain point), while another has just ONE viable choice that's difficult to obtain (token boss) it's horrendous.

9. Originally Posted by Esubane
I just hope the loot is itemized evenly, I don't want to see another Taoren the Soul Burner (MY SHA TOUCH WEAPON!!) which dropped on our 12th normal kill for me, second hunter never received his one, only LFR. Tsulong healing trinket didn't dropped even ONCE, over 4 months of farming normal TES. So we (hunters) had only one viable weapon option, that was coming from TOKEN boss (only 1 regular item drop slot in 10man) instead we had SIX DIFFERENT FUCKING CHESTPIECE CHOICES!!! Yes you see that right, 6 god damn mail agility chests at 496 or better item level (galleon, craftable, Tier, stoneguard HC [502], Zorlok and Tsulong&Lei shared loot). What's even better there were six chest pieces but NO heroic 509-grade bracers. Only 502 ones from MV.

Large loot tables are OK if the loot is evenly distributed, ie. say 2 items for every slot/spec. Having one slot that has million different items (therefore producing only crystals at certain point), while another has just ONE viable choice that's difficult to obtain (token boss) it's horrendous.
There being a 522 (with a chance of being thunderforged) weapon from trash does make it so you can 'farm' for something.
I never got my normal Lei Shi gun and we never killed HC Lei Shi, but I should technically atleast get a normal mode weapon this tier, lol.

10. Originally Posted by Fenixdown
This is yet another reason why 25's needs greater incentive. Even when everything is even, 10-man guilds still gripe that they're getting the shorter end of the stick. It's laughable.
Out of 6 Sha of Fear Heroic kills on 10m we had to disenchant 5 non-set items and 2 set helms went for second specs. We haven't had a single weapon drop from Sha of Fear - neither normal nor Heroic.
It's laughable, indeed.

11. so do I get this right...
Molten Core Bosses used to have a loot table of around 15-20 items (at least), and they did drop 2 items (or was it three?) for a 40 man raid.
now bosses have around 15-20 items, and they drop 2 items for 10 men and 5 items for 25 men.

I guess, I don't have to understand it.

12. Originally Posted by Fenixdown
Honestly, given all of the current circumstances in raiding right now OP, I shed not a single tear for you and your "plight". You took the path of least resistance and now you're complaining it's not rewarding you enough still.

This is yet another reason why 25's needs greater incentive. Even when everything is even, 10-man guilds still gripe that they're getting the shorter end of the stick. It's laughable.

Except that its not even at all.
25s get more loot per person.
25s are less affected by RNG due to sample size.
25s get more thunderforged items.

All in all, 25s get a massive advantage when it comes to gearing.

---------- Post added 2013-03-06 at 08:12 AM ----------

Originally Posted by xebtria
so do I get this right...
Molten Core Bosses used to have a loot table of around 15-20 items (at least), and they did drop 2 items (or was it three?) for a 40 man raid.
now bosses have around 15-20 items, and they drop 2 items for 10 men and 5 items for 25 men.

I guess, I don't have to understand it.
It was shitty back then, why wouldn't it be shitty now?

13. Originally Posted by Maelstrom51
It was shitty back then, why wouldn't it be shitty now?
it was utter shit back then, no one complained. Most people didn't even know what the boss can drop, because only thottbot was around and about 90% of people didn't even knew there is a database site.

now... it is still a bit crappy for 10 men now (I'm not gonna deny that), it is better in 25, but not optimal. but now, everyone is crying, just because it is worse than the patch before, but WAY better than it used to be?

in the end, comparing the 7 items per boss in T14 to the 20 items per boss in T15 shows me only one thing... you have more items to choose from. you may get unlucky with one, but then you take the other that drops a few bosses later.
Yet people are complaining... At the end it all is RNG. it always have been and always will be.

Example? I got two weapons (amber shaper, sha) and ONE shield (spirit kings) as a tank to choose from (I don't count the elegon weapon, because it is suboptimal itemlvl. I wouldn't count the shield, but it is the ONLY one, so I have to count it).
As a 2h DPS I basically only had one weapon (sha). Again, elegon is suboptimal itemlvl.
now, T15: THREE shields, FOUR 1h and for 2h I can also choose between FOUR weapons (one of it being a polearm, horray!)

More Choices! I like it! Another!

14. Honestly, the increased loot table size and increased Thunderforged frop for 25m make me quite happy as a 25m raid leader... it was somewhat sad when the ilvl change caused 25m guilds to become mostly obsoleted, and it's nice to see some changes that indicate a little attention.

15. Oh my god, having to grind for the items you want, THIS IS UNHEARD OF

16. Originally Posted by Maelstrom51
25s are less affected by RNG due to sample size.
Not always true. Items can still not drop, and if you want to talk Tier tokens, I have anywhere from 9-11 people on my token. Weeks when no vanq drop for a particular boss... that's always super cool :\

We DE'd some weapons off Sha, others don't drop off Shekzeer.

You get more loot, but RNG is still RNG.

17. Originally Posted by fangless
Not always true. Items can still not drop, and if you want to talk Tier tokens, I have anywhere from 9-11 people on my token. Weeks when no vanq drop for a particular boss... that's always super cool :\

We DE'd some weapons off Sha, others don't drop off Shekzeer.

You get more loot, but RNG is still RNG.
Yeah? There's four people on the vanquisher token in my 10 man. Which would be equal to having 10 people on vanquisher in 25. Except that you also get more items per person in your raid. We also didn't see a single agility dagger or sha touched bow drop for the entire tier.

By the way, I don't think you understand what I mean by being less affected by RNG. As the sample size increases, it gets closer and closer to the expected drop rates. 25 mans have a much much larger sample size in regards to the number of items to drop, so the drop rates experienced will be much closer to the expected drop rates. This is pretty basic statistics stuff.

TL;DR, RNG is RNG, but 10 mans have much worse RNG problems.

18. Unless people from Paragon stop sleeping, there's no way they will finish first again.

Bigger loot tables and the crazy high drop rate of thunderfurged for 25m will make a too big of a gap in gear even on such a small period of time. Reports showing 2TF/boss in 25m and 1/3bosses in 10m.
The first bosses will be ok relying on skill but at the end gear will become a wall requiring inhuman perfection to overcome time restrains.

#### Posting Permissions

• You may not post new threads
• You may not post replies
• You may not post attachments
• You may not edit your posts
•