Originally Posted by

**Dreyo**
Your analysis is flawed, but in a subtle way. You have the pieces there, but you're fitting them together wrong. You note, accurately, that your chance on not having generated a chi up to and including the 5th tick is very small - .385%. But here's the thing: in order for that to happen, you had *four ticks* previous to the fifth where you now have not generated chi. The conditional probability for that is (not coincidentally) the number for the 4th tick, 3.85%. Which means that these allegedly high-likelihood chi generation events themselves don't happen very frequently. With the cap of 100%, we can actually model exactly what the long-term average proc rate would be. But just looking at the numbers that you gave, you can't just say that it's "ridiculous" - because you need to tie it in with the conditional probabilities.