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  1. #581
    Quote Originally Posted by Totaltotemic View Post
    I am capable of estimation, this isn't the 3rd grade where I need to show my work to use common sense. I don't have to do a statistical probability spread analysis to see clearly that if it starts at 30%, the total generation chance is much more than "slightly increased", in fact you'll find that this specific case would end up being more than a 20% increase (30% to 36%), which I would classify as "ridiculous" considering the very brief test run at 35% was considered too powerful. If it does start at 30%, then the increase is way beyond "slight."
    Except this is the measured data:

    Quote Originally Posted by Chimerian View Post
    This is what I got on the day of the Soothing Mists change:

    Out of about 1000 full casts of Soothing Mists, with 9 ticks per Soothing Mists I got the following:

    1 chi: 1%
    2 chi: 23%
    3 chi: 42%
    4 chi: 25%
    5 chi: 9%

    So the chi proc rate is roughly 35%, however it is considerably rare to only get 1 chi, but you cannot get more than 5 chi.

    During tonight's testing on the Twin Consorts I observed a couple times that a full channel of soothing mists only generated 1 chi, which is pretty frustrating when you want to generate chi before Cosmic Barrage hits without spending 48k (if you could even find a safe spot in melee as a mw) mana through jab. So generating only 1 chi still happens, but rarely.
    Oh, and sorry about any implications that you don't know how to estimate, but people tend to be really, really awful at conditional probability unless they have training. It's just a default to assume people are likely to get it wrong, which causes trouble sometimes. This is one of those times.
    Last edited by Dreyo; 2013-02-26 at 08:26 PM.

  2. #582
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreyo View Post
    Except this is the measured data:
    Which is flawed. Can't get more than 5 chi per channel? Wrong, you can get up to 9. I have a feeling that he tested that with Ascension and forgot to spend the chi when he capped, so he could never see gains beyond 5 chi per cast. It's more than 35%, probably closer to 37%, which is definitely more than "slightly increased."

  3. #583
    Who gets to say how much slight is? Going from 30 to 35 seems "slight" to me. Even 37. Particularly when people have been asking for things like bringing it up to 50% or higher.

  4. #584
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreyo View Post
    Who gets to say how much slight is? Going from 30 to 35 seems "slight" to me. Even 37. Particularly when people have been asking for things like bringing it up to 50% or higher.
    That's only because people get easily confused between percentage point increases and percentage increases. 30% to 36% is a 6 percentage point increase, but it's a 20 percent increase. The reason people have been asking for massive increases is because we need a massive increase to fill the void that the removal (let's not kid ourselves, SCK is more mana per chi then Jab) of Jab from normal healing in order to save lives.

    gnorrior has been talking about Renewing Mist's huge potential for healing in 5.2. Relying on that and Chi Torpedo essentially leaves us at WotLK Resto Druid level, can't save anyone's life but acts as a +Hp5 aura to the entire raid. On fights with big bursts of healing needed, Renewing Mist won't save anyone. On fights with big bursts and people being spread out, SCK and Chi Torpedo won't save anyone. We need to be able to use Uplift, and we can't use Uplift when we're relying on RNG to fuel a multi-target heal with RNG targets. The chance of being able to land it when you need it on people that need it more than 2-3 times in a row (barring Chi Brew, as raid-wide damage usually happens much more often than every 90 seconds) is extremely small. A huge increase to Soothing Mist is nice and all, but it's still RNG. Guaranteed after 7 whole ticks, yes, but still RNG in the 2-3 second window when real healing matters.

  5. #585
    20% increase in Soothing chi gen doesn't seem unreasonable to me, is what I'm saying. If they're really asking us to use Soothing to power Uplift instead of Jab, then it needs to be a good bit higher than live. Going from 30% to 32% isn't going to cut it.

    And yes, it is RNG, but this new implementation should significantly reduce the "drought" streaks that are what people actually dislike about RNG. Nobody complains about RNG when you get four chi in four ticks.

  6. #586
    Okey, as this mechanic isn't that easy to math out, I wrote a little programm to simulate it.
    The result, after 10 million simulated Soothing Mist channels (at 9 ticks each):

    Average Chance to gain Chi: 34.02%

    Chi gained: 0. Chance: 0.0%
    Chi gained: 1. Chance: 1.4%
    Chi gained: 2. Chance: 25.2%
    Chi gained: 3. Chance: 45.1%
    Chi gained: 4. Chance: 22.9%
    Chi gained: 5. Chance: 4.9%
    Chi gained: 6. Chance: 0.5%
    Chi gained: 7. Chance: 0.03%
    Chi gained: 8. Chance: 0.0008%
    Chi gained: 9. Chance: 0.00001%

    as we can see, the amount of Chi gained is highly concentrated around the middle. in about 93% of the cases, you will be getting 2-4 Chi.
    This is a significant improvement to how it is handled on live!

    ps: as a side note, this numbers also reflect the ingame tests Chimerian did, so I we can safely assume it's correct

  7. #587
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    Quote Originally Posted by Totaltotemic View Post
    Which is flawed. Can't get more than 5 chi per channel? Wrong, you can get up to 9. I have a feeling that he tested that with Ascension and forgot to spend the chi when he capped, so he could never see gains beyond 5 chi per cast. It's more than 35%, probably closer to 37%, which is definitely more than "slightly increased."
    Well, it's a semi-moot point. I'm assuming the 15%+15% chance resets on a new cast. (Anyone want to test?) That would mean any chi generation beyond 5 is rather useless for Uplift. Although, GC said they want us to SCK,SCK,Uplift for AoE healing (at least when the raid is stacked).

  8. #588
    The problem with the RNG isn't 4+ seconds without chi. It's going 2 seconds without chi.

    To compare to the sheer power of Jab on live, getting 4 chi in 4 ticks is exactly the same rate as Jab. 2 chi in 4 ticks is a 50% reduction in number of Uplifts we could do. That's a lot. If we were only 10-20% ahead on fights like Garalon where we get to abuse it and roughly average on fights where we don't, what happens when we get only half of those? That's the best case scenario, that's what a 50% tick chance on Soothing would give. It's not about how much stronger the current Soothing is than the previous one (except when it comes to incredibly awkward tank healing where you get more chi than you can spend on Enveloping, which is why I don't like a super high one), it's about Soothing vs Jab. Even at a 50% proc rate, Soothing loses hard. If we're going to get to use it less, then we need the 5.0 Uplift back where we can affect a great deal of people because cutting it by a lot in 5.2 will just result in us being good on aura-damage fights and awful on ones without constant damage as opposed to great on aura-damage and good on burst damage.

  9. #589
    Warchief DirewolfX's Avatar
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    Anyway, it's not too hard to calculate the probability; I wrote a simple recursive function to solve it, if anyone wants to check it for mistakes:

    Pseudocode:

    function calcSooM(ticks)
    chi = [0, 0, ... 0] // 0-value array for # of ticks
    calcChi(0.15, 1, 0, 0, ticks, chi)
    return chi
    end function

    function calcChi(chance, curProb, curChi, curTicks, maxTicks, chi)
    if (curTicks < maxTicks)
    if (chance > 1)
    chance = 1
    end if
    if (chance < 1)
    calcChi(chance + 0.15, curProb * (1 - chance), curChi, curTicks + 1, maxTicks, chi)
    end if
    calcChi(0.15, curProb * chance, curChi + 1, curTicks + 1, maxTicks, chi)
    else
    chi[curChi] = chi[curChi] + curProb
    end if
    end function
    Last edited by DirewolfX; 2013-02-26 at 09:11 PM.

  10. #590
    Maggot, were you using 15% chance to gain a Chi on the initial tick, or 30% chance?

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-26 at 04:49 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Totaltotemic View Post
    The problem with the RNG isn't 4+ seconds without chi. It's going 2 seconds without chi.

    To compare to the sheer power of Jab on live, getting 4 chi in 4 ticks is exactly the same rate as Jab. 2 chi in 4 ticks is a 50% reduction in number of Uplifts we could do. That's a lot. If we were only 10-20% ahead on fights like Garalon where we get to abuse it and roughly average on fights where we don't, what happens when we get only half of those? That's the best case scenario, that's what a 50% tick chance on Soothing would give. It's not about how much stronger the current Soothing is than the previous one (except when it comes to incredibly awkward tank healing where you get more chi than you can spend on Enveloping, which is why I don't like a super high one), it's about Soothing vs Jab. Even at a 50% proc rate, Soothing loses hard. If we're going to get to use it less, then we need the 5.0 Uplift back where we can affect a great deal of people because cutting it by a lot in 5.2 will just result in us being good on aura-damage fights and awful on ones without constant damage as opposed to great on aura-damage and good on burst damage.
    Soothing loses hard, yes, but it also costs a lot less mana. Shouldn't we have to spend more mana to get more Chi more quickly?

  11. #591
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreyo View Post
    Soothing loses hard, yes, but it also costs a lot less mana. Shouldn't we have to spend more mana to get more Chi more quickly?
    Yes, but the question is how much. Blizzard apparently feels that 8% mana is the value of guaranteed chi now.

    Some thoughts:
    - If you can use the healing, Surging Mist is probably better than jab for immediate chi.
    - If you need chi right now, you can use one jab for a chi, then bank the muscle memory to use within the next 30 seconds on a TP from ReM/EH/SooM chi to get 4% mana back.

  12. #592
    Or, you should still continue channeling Soothing, and 'waste' your mana for guaranteed Chi at the same rate and cost as Jab, using Surging, while still gaining chi from Soothing.

    If Jab = Surging, which it does now (almost), then under no circumstances should you Jab when you don't plan on using Muscle Memory.

    This idea that Surging should be a button worth pressing...I can't disagree with the idea.

  13. #593
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreyo View Post
    Maggot, were you using 15% chance to gain a Chi on the initial tick, or 30% chance?[COLOR="red"]
    I used 15% on the initial tick. if the first tick is 30%, the value shoots up to about 45% on average (I think, can't remember exactly)
    Also those where all independant applications of Soothing (9 ticks, then start from the beginning again), I don't know if a second channeled SM remembers the state of the previous SM, I guess not.
    ups, know I notice that I ignored that fact when calculating the average Chi gain, so maybe that is flawed.

  14. #594
    Yeah...I think the next step in theory/testing is to see whether the chi counter resets or not with a new cast. Might be nice to ask GC actually.

  15. #595
    having to recast SoM every time it gives chi cause it will be 15% higher then not doing so will be damn pain in the ass.

  16. #596
    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    having to recast SoM every time it gives chi cause it will be 15% higher then not doing so will be damn pain in the ass.
    Wouldn't it then reset to the start chance after you get a proc and not reset to 0% chance to get a chi?
    "If you have to believe it on faith, you have no reason to believe it at all.” Aron Ra

  17. #597
    Warchief DirewolfX's Avatar
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    It's also empirically testable. The expected value for number of ticks per chi is 2.9391475, so over 1000 casts (9000 ticks), you'd expect to generate ~3062 chi if it remembers the last % value. Using the numbers I calculated with my function, the expected chi per cast is 2.8344023436 or ~2,834 chi if it forgets the last cast. The numbers given by Chimerian would give an expected value of 3180 chi over 1000 casts. Using the numbers from TrueMaggot's simulation estimates we'd get 3064 chi over 1000 casts (it looks like you 'remembered' the value between casts?)

    Since TrueMaggot's numbers are a lot closer to Chimerian's tested values and that's a lot closer to what we'd expect if it remembers the current % between casts than my calculations for each cast being an independent event, I'd wager that it DOES remember the current % chance for a chi between casts.

    Disclaimer: More testing required.

  18. #598
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    Guys is it not stated that SCK also procs Muscle Memory? If so then SCK, TP/BoK, SCK, Uplift, TP/BoK doesnt seem so bad with a 8% mana refund, considering you are within melee range. I could be way off base here but I'm sure thats what the patch notes suggests.

    "Muscle Memory is a new passive ability for Mistweaver Monks. Successful Jab and Spinning Crane Kick which damages at least 3 enemies cause Muscle Memory. Muscle Memory causes the Monk's next Tiger Palm or Blackout Kick to deal 150% more damage and restore 4% mana."


    Edit:

    I suppose then Haste becomes a huge factor as the channel time is around 2 seconds even if the chi is guaranteed. Which I guess brings it in line with the current Soothing chi gen calculations.

    I think I've just been dumb right here.
    Last edited by Garricakes; 2013-02-27 at 12:10 AM.

  19. #599
    Quote Originally Posted by Garricakes View Post
    Guys is it not stated that SCK also procs Muscle Memory? If so then SCK, TP/BoK, SCK, Uplift, TP/BoK doesnt seem so bad with a 8% mana refund, considering you are within melee range. I could be way off base here but I'm sure thats what the patch notes suggests.

    "Muscle Memory is a new passive ability for Mistweaver Monks. Successful Jab and Spinning Crane Kick which damages at least 3 enemies cause Muscle Memory. Muscle Memory causes the Monk's next Tiger Palm or Blackout Kick to deal 150% more damage and restore 4% mana."
    SCK needs to be in a position where it actually hits 3 people, so not always viable
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  20. #600
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaNinja View Post
    SCK needs to be in a position where it actually hits 3 people, so not always viable
    Yeah its true but if I am honest, if my class is perfect for every fight then I will get bored. The fun is working around it the best you can. Unless youre in a hardcore guild and you get benched for it.

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