Jab Nerfed Again :D

[TheTrueM4gg0t]

Okey, as this mechanic isn't that easy to math out, I wrote a little programm to simulate it.
The result, after 10 million simulated Soothing Mist channels (at 9 ticks each):

Average Chance to gain Chi: 34.02%

Chi gained: 0. Chance: 0.0%
Chi gained: 1. Chance: 1.4%
Chi gained: 2. Chance: 25.2%
Chi gained: 3. Chance: 45.1%
Chi gained: 4. Chance: 22.9%
Chi gained: 5. Chance: 4.9%
Chi gained: 6. Chance: 0.5%
Chi gained: 7. Chance: 0.03%
Chi gained: 8. Chance: 0.0008%
Chi gained: 9. Chance: 0.00001%

as we can see, the amount of Chi gained is highly concentrated around the middle. in about 93% of the cases, you will be getting 2-4 Chi.
This is a significant improvement to how it is handled on live!

ps: as a side note, this numbers also reflect the ingame tests Chimerian did, so I we can safely assume it's correct

[DirewolfX]

Which is flawed. Can't get more than 5 chi per channel? Wrong, you can get up to 9. I have a feeling that he tested that with Ascension and forgot to spend the chi when he capped, so he could never see gains beyond 5 chi per cast. It's more than 35%, probably closer to 37%, which is definitely more than "slightly increased."

Well, it's a semi-moot point. I'm assuming the 15%+15% chance resets on a new cast. (Anyone want to test?) That would mean any chi generation beyond 5 is rather useless for Uplift. Although, GC said they want us to SCK,SCK,Uplift for AoE healing (at least when the raid is stacked).

[Totaltotemic]

The problem with the RNG isn't 4+ seconds without chi. It's going 2 seconds without chi.

To compare to the sheer power of Jab on live, getting 4 chi in 4 ticks is exactly the same rate as Jab. 2 chi in 4 ticks is a 50% reduction in number of Uplifts we could do. That's a lot. If we were only 10-20% ahead on fights like Garalon where we get to abuse it and roughly average on fights where we don't, what happens when we get only half of those? That's the best case scenario, that's what a 50% tick chance on Soothing would give. It's not about how much stronger the current Soothing is than the previous one (except when it comes to incredibly awkward tank healing where you get more chi than you can spend on Enveloping, which is why I don't like a super high one), it's about Soothing vs Jab. Even at a 50% proc rate, Soothing loses hard. If we're going to get to use it less, then we need the 5.0 Uplift back where we can affect a great deal of people because cutting it by a lot in 5.2 will just result in us being good on aura-damage fights and awful on ones without constant damage as opposed to great on aura-damage and good on burst damage.

[DirewolfX]

Anyway, it's not too hard to calculate the probability; I wrote a simple recursive function to solve it, if anyone wants to check it for mistakes:

Pseudocode:

function calcSooM(ticks)
chi = [0, 0, ... 0] // 0-value array for # of ticks
calcChi(0.15, 1, 0, 0, ticks, chi)
return chi
end function

function calcChi(chance, curProb, curChi, curTicks, maxTicks, chi)
if (curTicks < maxTicks)
if (chance > 1)
chance = 1
end if
if (chance < 1)
calcChi(chance + 0.15, curProb * (1 - chance), curChi, curTicks + 1, maxTicks, chi)
end if
calcChi(0.15, curProb * chance, curChi + 1, curTicks + 1, maxTicks, chi)
else
chi[curChi] = chi[curChi] + curProb
end if
end function

[Dreyo]

Maggot, were you using 15% chance to gain a Chi on the initial tick, or 30% chance?

---------- Post added 2013-02-26 at 04:49 PM ----------

The problem with the RNG isn't 4+ seconds without chi. It's going 2 seconds without chi.

To compare to the sheer power of Jab on live, getting 4 chi in 4 ticks is exactly the same rate as Jab. 2 chi in 4 ticks is a 50% reduction in number of Uplifts we could do. That's a lot. If we were only 10-20% ahead on fights like Garalon where we get to abuse it and roughly average on fights where we don't, what happens when we get only half of those? That's the best case scenario, that's what a 50% tick chance on Soothing would give. It's not about how much stronger the current Soothing is than the previous one (except when it comes to incredibly awkward tank healing where you get more chi than you can spend on Enveloping, which is why I don't like a super high one), it's about Soothing vs Jab. Even at a 50% proc rate, Soothing loses hard. If we're going to get to use it less, then we need the 5.0 Uplift back where we can affect a great deal of people because cutting it by a lot in 5.2 will just result in us being good on aura-damage fights and awful on ones without constant damage as opposed to great on aura-damage and good on burst damage.

Soothing loses hard, yes, but it also costs a lot less mana. Shouldn't we have to spend more mana to get more Chi more quickly?

[DirewolfX]

Soothing loses hard, yes, but it also costs a lot less mana. Shouldn't we have to spend more mana to get more Chi more quickly?

Yes, but the question is how much. Blizzard apparently feels that 8% mana is the value of guaranteed chi now.

Some thoughts:
- If you can use the healing, Surging Mist is probably better than jab for immediate chi.
- If you need chi right now, you can use one jab for a chi, then bank the muscle memory to use within the next 30 seconds on a TP from ReM/EH/SooM chi to get 4% mana back.

[Dreyo]

Or, you should still continue channeling Soothing, and 'waste' your mana for guaranteed Chi at the same rate and cost as Jab, using Surging, while still gaining chi from Soothing.

If Jab = Surging, which it does now (almost), then under no circumstances should you Jab when you don't plan on using Muscle Memory.

This idea that Surging should be a button worth pressing...I can't disagree with the idea.

[TheTrueM4gg0t]

Maggot, were you using 15% chance to gain a Chi on the initial tick, or 30% chance?[COLOR="red"]

I used 15% on the initial tick. if the first tick is 30%, the value shoots up to about 45% on average (I think, can't remember exactly)
Also those where all independant applications of Soothing (9 ticks, then start from the beginning again), I don't know if a second channeled SM remembers the state of the previous SM, I guess not.
ups, know I notice that I ignored that fact when calculating the average Chi gain, so maybe that is flawed.

[Dreyo]

Yeah...I think the next step in theory/testing is to see whether the chi counter resets or not with a new cast. Might be nice to ask GC actually.

[Gorsameth]

having to recast SoM every time it gives chi cause it will be 15% higher then not doing so will be damn pain in the ass.

[Florena]

having to recast SoM every time it gives chi cause it will be 15% higher then not doing so will be damn pain in the ass.

Wouldn't it then reset to the start chance after you get a proc and not reset to 0% chance to get a chi?

[DirewolfX]

It's also empirically testable. The expected value for number of ticks per chi is 2.9391475, so over 1000 casts (9000 ticks), you'd expect to generate ~3062 chi if it remembers the last % value. Using the numbers I calculated with my function, the expected chi per cast is 2.8344023436 or ~2,834 chi if it forgets the last cast. The numbers given by Chimerian would give an expected value of 3180 chi over 1000 casts. Using the numbers from TrueMaggot's simulation estimates we'd get 3064 chi over 1000 casts (it looks like you 'remembered' the value between casts?)

Since TrueMaggot's numbers are a lot closer to Chimerian's tested values and that's a lot closer to what we'd expect if it remembers the current % between casts than my calculations for each cast being an independent event, I'd wager that it DOES remember the current % chance for a chi between casts.

Disclaimer: More testing required.

[Deleted]

Guys is it not stated that SCK also procs Muscle Memory? If so then SCK, TP/BoK, SCK, Uplift, TP/BoK doesnt seem so bad with a 8% mana refund, considering you are within melee range. I could be way off base here but I'm sure thats what the patch notes suggests.

"Muscle Memory is a new passive ability for Mistweaver Monks. Successful Jab and Spinning Crane Kick which damages at least 3 enemies cause Muscle Memory. Muscle Memory causes the Monk's next Tiger Palm or Blackout Kick to deal 150% more damage and restore 4% mana."


Edit:

I suppose then Haste becomes a huge factor as the channel time is around 2 seconds even if the chi is guaranteed. Which I guess brings it in line with the current Soothing chi gen calculations.

I think I've just been dumb right here.

[Deleted]

Guys is it not stated that SCK also procs Muscle Memory? If so then SCK, TP/BoK, SCK, Uplift, TP/BoK doesnt seem so bad with a 8% mana refund, considering you are within melee range. I could be way off base here but I'm sure thats what the patch notes suggests.

"Muscle Memory is a new passive ability for Mistweaver Monks. Successful Jab and Spinning Crane Kick which damages at least 3 enemies cause Muscle Memory. Muscle Memory causes the Monk's next Tiger Palm or Blackout Kick to deal 150% more damage and restore 4% mana."

SCK needs to be in a position where it actually hits 3 people, so not always viable

[Deleted]

SCK needs to be in a position where it actually hits 3 people, so not always viable

Yeah its true but if I am honest, if my class is perfect for every fight then I will get bored. The fun is working around it the best you can. Unless youre in a hardcore guild and you get benched for it.

[Gorsameth]

Note that SCK needs to DAMAGE 3 targets not heal for Muscle Memory to kick in, aka it wont on 90% of the bosses.

[Leblue]

SCK needs to be in a position where it actually hits 3 people, so not always viable

It has to hit three enemies to proc MM. If it hits 3 allies but not 3 enemies it won't proc MM so it'll only be useful during aoe.

[Courierrawr]

Ugh.. GC just replied to one of those idiots saying fistweavers should be using 2H agi weapons.. sigh

[Deleted]

Ugh.. GC just replied to one of those idiots saying fistweavers should be using 2H agi weapons.. sigh

Well, he doesn't know shit about monks so he just replies to clueless questions to make us think he cares about our class. Pathetic.

[Totaltotemic]

Ugh.. GC just replied to one of those idiots saying fistweavers should be using 2H agi weapons.. sigh

There's a ridiculous noise to actual signal ratio in the Monk community, partially due to being the new class. I've pointed out several times on this forum that people have extreme difficulties separating when is just someone's theory from actual mathematical or empirical evidence. The reason why 90% of the Monk questions he fields are stupid ones are because 90% of the questions people ask him are stupid ones. Thankfully it's a bit better here, but every other thread I walk into has some kind of factual error in it. It's hard to get meaningful feedback out when we're wrong about half of the things we talk about at a fundamental "how it actually works" level.