Originally Posted by
Stede
Well, let's see. Here's the full space.
(Initial Roll / Bonus Roll)
Win / na
Lose / na
Win / Win
Win / Lose
Lose / Win
Lose / Lose
It's unclear exactly what the OP is after, but it seems like we're looking at those that actually used their bonus roll. That means #1 & #2 are out. Then, depending on whether we're looking at everything that's left or just at the scenarios with a win, we have either four possibilities left or we exclude #6. Then we consider there's 10 raiders, and since we're talking about bonus rolls, we can assume independence.