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  1. #481
    Quote Originally Posted by Pebrocks The Warlock View Post
    Sad they "acknowledge" this because it isn't true. They aren't mandatory at all. You don't need to spend the VP or JP and there are ways to unlocking some factions rep item without doing dailies.
    True. It's tough if you have to re roll or got a late start though. You get to a point where pugs want you to have 470 or 475 to do MSV normal even if you link them heroic achievements. LFR comes down to luck and even with a few LFR pieces + rest heroic blues you still will probably be sitting below 470. So you get to a point where you need to do dailies, I think. Unless you want to try to join a feeder guild for a couple weeks and hope they can clear MSV 6/6 to give you gear before you split.

  2. #482
    Each chance is a separate dice roll of 10%. Their is no "lower" anything. That 10% also says nothing if you already have the item in question or if you have better. That isn't factored in either. IN reality even with 10% as low as it is you can go quite the long while without a piece of gear.
    Last edited by Leonard McCoy; 2013-03-04 at 07:53 AM.

  3. #483
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    No it isn't, the chance is the same. in those 10 kills the item could drop at any kill, and likeliness of each case is the same. Be it 1st kill or 10th or EVERY kill.
    There are 2 in power of 10 (1024) drop patterns possible. Each is as likely as another.
    you didn't read what I wrote.

    There's a difference between chance to get it on a single kill and chance of NOT getting it over X kills.

    Quote Originally Posted by Leonard McCoy View Post
    Each chance is a separate dice roll of 10%. Their is no "lower" anything. That 10% also says nothing if you already have the item in question or if you have better. That isn't factored in either. IN reality even with 10% as low as it is you can go quite the long while without a piece of gear.
    The probability of multiple independent events ALL occurring is the product of their individual probabilities.

    Given a 10% drop chance:
    For each kill (independent event) there's 90% (0.9) chance of not getting it.

    This means that for X kills the chance of NOT getting it is 0.9^X

    So, after 10 kills the chance of not having gotten the item is 0.9^10, which is 34.8%
    After 20 kills it's 12.1%
    And after 50 kills it's 0,5%
    Last edited by Idoru; 2013-03-04 at 08:28 AM.

  4. #484
    Quote Originally Posted by spectrefax View Post
    Really sick of seeing this argument. The fact is, if you don't do dailies to unlock valor gear, you get gear locked and your character progression comes to a grinding halt.

    Let's take dungeons for example. The highest ilvl you can obtain off dungeons is 463. Then, you're left to grind LFR MSV for *months* (unless the rng gods just lay a golden brick on you) to reach 470 to queue for the remaining LFR raids.

    So, as a result, you're looking at grinding for PvP gear and/or spending 20-35k (sever prices may vary) for BoE pieces to fill in the slots you need as just acquiring the Sha boots and Klaxxi neck aren't going to cut it.

    Blizzard acknowledged this because the gear bottleneck must be an obvious eyesore from their overall player participation data.
    I purchased a relic which was BiS for all my alt toons I wanted to gear. I did 1-2 weeks of MSV LFR to get to 470 assuming I didn't bring the toon immediately into a normal MSV clear (which is really not hard at 465 or so ilvl if you don't suck). I did do dailies though but not to spend my vp more-so to get coins to roll on gear in raids, and that is where doing the quests feel mandatory; I'll admit on my first toon (well 2 since I raided in 2 groups) I had to get all factions to revered in case I ended up needing some item from the rep because it wasn't dropping but this is first tier blues as it has always been (I guess everyone forgot how horrible Cata gearing was, and everyone has forgotten about TBC which if you all forgot took months to gear up properly for a raid w/ out being carried by a superior group).

    The new set of vp gear will be 496 gear for non-raid rep, but you can also get it by doing 1 heroic a day and choosing that faction to gain rep with. I still hate having to do Golden Lotus dailies 3 days a week on any toon I want to get my coins on but its mostly the repetition of dailies; imo they just aren't good game design - questing should be for lvling and you should be able to ignore quests at 90 if you want to without hindering raid performance; they should grant lesser charms from heroic dungeons or challenge modes since the coins are for raiding, until pvpers get an equivalent do x amount of quests for more conquest I'm never going to feel its a fair system.

    Also the argument that says its not mandatory is a bs argument. Thats like telling an athlete it isn't mandatory to train to be an athlete, except in this case Blizzard is God putting stupid hoops in front of us that we have to jump through to increase our performance when they have nothing to do with what we actually want to do in the game, if they remove helm enchants because they feel mandatory and then replace them with coins which will feel even more mandatory (3x 15% chances at a BiS piece of gear every lockout isn't mandatory but a 150 extra int on your helm is?) Anyone not wearing full BiS who even has any respect for raiding and their raid team is going to be getting those coins on a weekly basis.
    Last edited by Harekrsna; 2013-03-04 at 08:14 AM.

  5. #485
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    you didn't read what I wrote.

    There's a difference between chance to get it on a single kill and chance of NOT getting it over X kills.
    The probability to get it on first kill is the same as getting it on X kill.

    Now expectations are a completely different thing:
    The probability to get just 1 (no more no less) in 10 (0.3874) is LESS than getting >1 (say 2) in 10 (0.6513).
    The probability to get 1 or 0 (either 1 or 0) in 10 (0.7361) is MORE than getting >1 in 10 (0.6513)
    The probability to get 0 out of 10 (0.3487) is LESS than getting 1 in 10 (0.3874) - but not by much ~4%

    So as you can see there's a somewhat high chance of getting 1 drop in 10 or not getting it or getting 2 (0.1937 - 0.2639)

    The exact kill you get it - can be any kill - chances are equal for 1st and 10th kill and 100000000th kill

    Remember probability and expectations do not guarantee a thing.
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  6. #486
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    The probability to get 0 out of 10 (0.3487) is LESS than getting exactly 1 in 10 (0.3874) - but not by much ~4%
    Just for clarity...

  7. #487
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    The sheer irony of your post is so stunning...
    Yes, it dropping on the 10th kill is as unlikely as it not dropping for million kills.
    Random, dude, do you speak it?
    Okay, you have proven it.. You know shit about math.
    Now get lost and let the smart people discuss this.

    Every time you kill a boss you have the SAME probability of getting the item you want. Just because you killed it million times doesn't increase chances for it to drop on million+1 kill. It just does not. It will be the same. Whatever it is, say 1%. Every time you kill a boss, you roll a d100 against 100. You need to roll 100 to get the item. The likeliness for you to roll 100 on first roll is the same as likeliness to roll 100 on 2nd, 3rd, ... 100, ..., 1000000 roll.
    Yes, but a thousand kills combined have more dropchance than one kill.

    P.S.
    There are ~1m raiders. that's no more than 100k 10man raids.
    Let's assume that they kill a boss at the same time. That's 100k kills at once.
    Boss has 10 items on his loot table and for the sake of easy mathematics drops just 1 item out of 10.
    PS. Last number had over 2 million people raiding.

  8. #488
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    No, it felt forced because people are stupid.. not because it was forced.
    Yep, it always the players that are stupid. Blizzard never get it wrong.

    If it feels forced to a significant proportion of the player base then, regardless of Blizzard's intentions, it is forced. Arguing semantics and nuances of the word feel are not going to change this and is not going to bring the players that have quit because they felt forced to do dailies they did not like back. Of course you will point to those players who have quit and call them stupid for feeling this way but a stupid person's $15 per month is worth the same as a really clever persons and in real world terms their money is worth more to Blizzard than yours. Whilst you are content to put up with whatever Blizzard throws at you and even tell people they are stupid if they do not agree with the decree in Blue text the stupid people have and will deprive Blizzard of their money.

  9. #489
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Yep, it always the players that are stupid. Blizzard never get it wrong.

    If it feels forced to a significant proportion of the player base then, regardless of Blizzard's intentions, it is forced. Arguing semantics and nuances of the word feel are not going to change this and is not going to bring the players that have quit because they felt forced to do dailies they did not like back. Of course you will point to those players who have quit and call them stupid for feeling this way but a stupid person's $15 per month is worth the same as a really clever persons and in real world terms their money is worth more to Blizzard than yours. Whilst you are content to put up with whatever Blizzard throws at you and even tell people they are stupid if they do not agree with the decree in Blue text the stupid people have and will deprive Blizzard of their money.
    Save your breath. This is cataclysm all over again. Instead of accepting calls for moderation in what is an obviously flawed model, some SOME members of the community will just turn on other members and call them bads or idiots or whatever. In the end they lose though. Blizzard looses our money and the system they love so dearly gets abandoned by the developers when it becomes unsustainable to support it.

  10. #490
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    Just for clarity...
    The probability to get exactly 0 out of 10 (0.3487) is LESS than getting exactly 1 in 10 (0.3874) - but not by much ~4%

    your point?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    Okay, you have proven it.. You know shit about math.
    Now get lost and let the smart people discuss this.
    Do you want me to report you or something?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    Yes, but a thousand kills combined have more dropchance than one kill.
    No, it has more drops, not higher drop chance, doh.

    What's next, slot machine lurkers are billioners?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    PS. Last number had over 2 million people raiding.
    It just increases the number of drop patterns by 2. Your point?
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  11. #491
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    The probability to get exactly 0 out of 10 (0.3487) is LESS than getting exactly 1 in 10 (0.3874) - but not by much ~4%
    But who wants exactly 1 on the Xth try?
    n=10, P=10% and X>0 gives a higher probability than you calculated.
    Do you want me to report you or something?
    Go ahead. There is nothing illegal in calling you bad at math.
    No, it has more drops, not higher drop chance, doh.
    The chance of ending up with a specific item is bigger with 1000 n's than with one n.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Yep, it always the players that are stupid. Blizzard never get it wrong.

    If it feels forced to a significant proportion of the player base then, regardless of Blizzard's intentions, it is forced. Arguing semantics and nuances of the word feel are not going to change this and is not going to bring the players that have quit because they felt forced to do dailies they did not like back. Of course you will point to those players who have quit and call them stupid for feeling this way but a stupid person's $15 per month is worth the same as a really clever persons and in real world terms their money is worth more to Blizzard than yours. Whilst you are content to put up with whatever Blizzard throws at you and even tell people they are stupid if they do not agree with the decree in Blue text the stupid people have and will deprive Blizzard of their money.
    Did I ever say I was content with it?
    Or did you perhaps miss the dozen of posts where I mentioned I REFUSED to do dailies because I hate them.

    The difference between 'forced' and 'feeling forced' is that when it just feels forced to some people you:
    A) Have people who don't feel it's forced.
    B) Can change their opinion and explain why it's not forced.

    I love that they changed the system.
    But that doesn't change anything about the fact that it was not forced.

  12. #492
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post

    Did I ever say I was content with it?
    Or did you perhaps miss the dozen of posts where I mentioned I REFUSED to do dailies because I hate them.

    The difference between 'forced' and 'feeling forced' is that when it just feels forced to some people you:
    A) Have people who don't feel it's forced.
    B) Can change their opinion and explain why it's not forced.

    I love that they changed the system.
    But that doesn't change anything about the fact that it was not forced.
    The difference is negligible because nothing is forced in this game. Certain things feel forced certainly but the reality is the only things you are forced to or have in order to play is a sub fee and a pc that meets the requirements on the back of the box. However that's a meaningless criteria. The system FEELS FORCED because in a very real sense IT IS FORCED. You don't like that but that's alright you don't deal with it. For many of us we dislike being FORCED or COMPELLED to do this crap. The developers decided to make doing daily content as compelling as possible but putting overwhelming reward and incentive behind it. They and you can't turn around and then wonder why people feel overtly compelled (FORCED) to do it. If you want to get hung up on the dictionary definitions of these words then theirs not much conversation to have really. The daily content feels and is very much forced. Their is very little between feeling forced and it actually being forced. Even they stuck a loaded gun to your head it wouldn't be forced. You'd still have to chose to do it. Eventually people realized playing this game and paying for this game was a choice to and an increasingly unrewarding and unsatisfying one because their play time was being dictated by daily quests.

    You love everything they do. Change or not. They change the system you don't get mad that they changed it and acknowledged what many of us have been saying for a long time. Dailies are forced content, forced to get you out of org and they feel very forced. The developers have acknowledged this and instead of getting mad at them for abandoning the argument you just agree with them anyway even though it's a total betrayal of all you people who defended this daily bullshit from day 1. I don't know where you people come from but they are so lucky to have you guys.
    Last edited by Leonard McCoy; 2013-03-04 at 09:52 AM.

  13. #493
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    But who wants exactly 1 on the Xth try?
    n=10, P=10% and X>0 gives a higher probability than you calculated.
    Probability of getting items with drop chance 10% in 10 kills - isn't 1 either.
    I provided expectations for all 3 cases, not just "exactly 1". Read again.
    Probability for "exactly 1" shows that it doesn't matter on which kill you get it - the chance is the same.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    Go ahead. There is nothing illegal in calling you bad at math.
    There is unless you can prove it. Called slander.
    But I'm not talking about legality. I'm talking about insults - which are against rules here.
    So either keep your shit together or face the consequences.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    The chance of ending up with a specific item is bigger with 1000 n's than with one n.
    Yes, the chance of ENDING UP with a specific item in a finite amount of kills is bigger.
    In infinite amount it's 100%
    That's called expectation. It's kind of hindsight - that is the 1000 kills is done and you expect item to be dropped.
    But if it didn't drop (chance, no matter how high, is not a guarantee, unless it's 1) in 1000 kills that doesn't increase your chances to get item on next kill, or next, or next.
    Last edited by Elim Garak; 2013-03-04 at 10:06 AM.
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  14. #494
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    The probability to get exactly 0 out of 10 (0.3487) is LESS than getting exactly 1 in 10 (0.3874) - but not by much ~4%

    your point?
    My point is that there's a significant difference between exactly 1 and at least 1.

  15. #495
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    Probability of getting items with drop chance 10% in 10 kills - isn't 1 either.
    Then I am glad I never made such a claim.
    I provided expectations for all 3 cases, not just "exactly 1". Read again.
    Probability for "exactly 1" shows that it doesn't matter on which kill you get it - the chance is the same.
    Right.. Just go back and read what I wrote.

    There is unless you can prove it. Called slander.
    But I'm not talking about legality. I'm talking about insults - which are against rules here.
    So either keep your shit together or face the consequences.
    Slander and insulting because you are bad at math?
    You have to face the consequences when you ignore basic math.

    Yes, the chance of ENDING UP with a specific item in a finite amount of kills is bigger.
    In infinite amount it's 100%
    Yes, it takes infinite amount of kills to make it 100% sure.
    But math is already happy if you can get it above a threshold, 85% should be enough.

    That's called expectation. It's kind of hindsight - that is the 1000 kills is done and you expect item to be dropped.
    But if it didn't drop (chance, no matter how high, is not a guarantee, unless it's 1) in 1000 kills that doesn't increase your chances to get item on next kill, or next, or next.
    AAAARGH, IT'S THE STRAWMAN!
    You have this talent for destroying arguments I never made

  16. #496
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    My point is that there's a significant difference between exactly 1 and at least 1.
    And one would assume that since I provided probabilities for every case - I know that, right?
    And I was comparing exactly with exactly.
    Because "at least 0" has a probability of 1 which is MORE than "at least 1"
    And I showed you that "at least 1" probability is LESS than "no more than 1"
    That tells us absolutely nothing. Because "no more than 1" can mean "0".
    Look how funny it is: 0.7361 (no more than 1) = 0.3487 (exactly 0) + 0.3874 (exactly 1);
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  17. #497
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    And one would assume that since I provided probabilities for every case - I know that, right?
    And I was comparing exactly with exactly.
    Because "at least 0" has a probability of 1 which is MORE than "at least 1"
    And I showed you that "at least 1" probability is LESS than "no more than 1"
    That tells us absolutely nothing. Because "no more than 1" can mean "0".
    Look how funny it is: 0.7361 (no more than 1) = 0.3487 (exactly 0) + 0.3874 (exactly 1);
    And on the previous page you claimed that the chance of NOT having gotten a 10% item was not lower after 10 kills, but was in fact the same for each kill.

    It's not easy to tell what you know....

  18. #498
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    AAAARGH, IT'S THE STRAWMAN!
    You have this talent for destroying arguments I never made
    your words
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    But for the majority it will drop within 10 kills
    we always have players who can't get a drop in 100 kills and we also have players who have 100 drops in those kills
    It dropping on the 10th try has the same probability as it not dropping for a million kills? Are you for real?
    Those are your words.
    Majority getting specific item within 10 kills - BS - because
    Unlikeliness of not getting it in 100 == unlikeliness of getting it 100 in a row == unlikeliness of getting 1 in 100.
    So yes it dropping on the 10th try has the same unlikeliness as it not dropping in a million kills. You just got lucky on your 10th try. The dice has favored you. Or unlucky for million tries. Dice's a bitch.
    Expectation of the item drop in million tries may have skyrocketed, but that's just expectation. You are witnessing an unlikely event happening. While some other dude having million drops in a row - that is an unlikely event too. Just like some other dude getting it on 10th try in a million!

    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    And on the previous page you claimed that the chance of NOT having gotten a 10% item was not lower after 10 kills, but was in fact the same for each kill.
    it isn't lower - it's 0.9. For each kill. The chance of not getting item on a kill after 10 kills is 0.9!

    You are clearly confusing different situations. In one we kill bosses and see results for each one independenetly. In another we killed bosses already and expecting some amount of items or we pre-calculating our chances to get items in SET amount of kills.

    Your chance to get item in N kills may be higher, but that doesn't mean that each kill increases your chances.
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  19. #499
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    it isn't lower - it's 0.9. For each kill. The chance of not getting item on a kill after 10 kills is 0.9!

    You are clearly confusing different situations. In one we kill bosses and see results for each one independenetly. In another we killed bosses already and expecting some amount of items or we pre-calculating our chances to get items in SET amount of kills.

    Your chance to get item in N kills may be higher, but that doesn't mean that each kill increases your chances.
    I never said that they did.
    In fact, I clearly stated (on this very page) that "There's a difference between chance to get it on a single kill and chance of NOT getting it over X kills.".

    So yes, the chance of getting it on a specific kill is 10%, no matter if it's the 1st or 100th. I never claimed otherwise.

    But it's a mathematical fact that you will have a much lower chance of not having gotten it after X kills, as X increases. Period.

    Once again, I'm not talking about getting it on the Xth kill, but about actually having gotten it AFTER X kills.
    Last edited by Idoru; 2013-03-04 at 10:50 AM.

  20. #500
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    your words
    I never said that the dropchance for kill 10 is higher than kill 1.
    I claimed that you have a higher probability of having the item after a total of 10 kills than after 1 kill.

    Those are your words.
    Majority getting specific item within 10 kills - BS - because
    Unlikeliness of not getting it in 100 == unlikeliness of getting it 100 in a row == unlikeliness of getting 1 in 100.
    You are probably at home, so please do this math for me:
    n=100, P=0.10
    and now x=0, x=100 and x>0

    Hint: x>0 is the same as 1-(x=0).

    it isn't lower - it's 0.9. For each kill. The chance of not getting item on a kill after 10 kills is 0.9!
    False.
    The chance of not having an item can be calculated with P=0.10, n=10 and x=0.
    That chance is NOT 0.9

    Your chance to get item in N kills may be higher, but that doesn't mean that each kill increases your chances.
    And nobody every claimed that, which is why I started about the strawman.

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