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  1. #501
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    So yes, the chance of getting it on a specific kill is 10%, no matter if it's the 1st or 100th. I never claimed otherwise.

    But it's a mathematical fact that you will have a much lower chance of not having gotten it after X kills, as X increases. Period.
    So is it 90% chance for not getting it on next kill or is it decreasing with each kill if item didn't drop in the past?
    Don't you see a contradiction?
    (it's the former. 90%)

    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    Once again, I'm not talking about getting it on the Xth kill, but about actually having gotten it AFTER X kills.
    If you did X kills you do not need probabilities to see either you got the item in X kills or not, do you? What help knowing the probability of having gotten the item after X kills that you just did can offer you? It doesn't say what your chances are for next kill, It implies that next X kills will have these probabilities for getting an item. A prediction. Expectation. So you have to do another X kills. And you may see or not see the item drop. That again doesn't improve/lower your chances for the next X kills.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    I never said that the dropchance for kill 10 is higher than kill 1.
    I claimed that you have a higher probability of having the item after a total of 10 kills than after 1 kill.
    You started claiming it after I provided calculations. So...
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    You are probably at home, so please do this math for me:
    n=100, P=0.10
    and now x=0, x=100 and x>0

    Hint: x>0 is the same as 1-(x=0).
    This is pointless, because binomial formula accounts only for 3 cases, while there's as I said earlier in this thread a number with million zeroes cases. And each case has same probability.
    Of course a individual specific EXACT case has less probability to happen than a vague collection of cases.
    For instance: getting item on 9th kill has less probability than getting it "somewhere between 10th and millionth kill", but the same as getting it on EXACTLY millionth kill.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    False.
    The chance of not having an item can be calculated with P=0.10, n=10 and x=0.
    That chance is NOT 0.9
    You are confusing a chance of not having an item in X kills with the chance of not getting an item on next kill.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    And nobody every claimed that, which is why I started about the strawman.
    That was not strawman. Because your initial argument was about drop rates on wowhead from which you draw your ridiculous conclusions about chances on getting items. As i pointed out that just beacuse 10 people out of 100 kills get an item doesn't mean that you will get it in 100 kills, or majority of people will get it in 100 kills. Because it clearly shows statistically that only 10% of people will get it in reasonable amount of time which is hardly majority.

  2. #502
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    If you did X kills you do not need probabilities to see either you got the item in X kills or not, do you? What help knowing the probability of having gotten the item after X kills that you just did can offer you? It doesn't say what your chances are for next kill, It implies that next X kills will have these probabilities for getting an item. A prediction. Expectation. So you have to do another X kills. And you may see or not see the item drop. That again doesn't improve/lower your chances for the next X kills.
    The point is, people are using (wrongly as shown) these independent event probabilities show how hard it is to gear up, and how mandatory valor items are.

  3. #503
    peoples is sick of doing daily simple as that
    Last edited by bufferunderrun; 2013-03-04 at 12:32 PM.
    How about we let the parenting of kids to... their parents? No, seriously, World of Warcraft is a videogame. Gaming it's supposed to be a fun activity (if you have that fun through challenges, social interactions, etc is completely up to you). Not some kind of "School of Hard Knocks about the Real World".

  4. #504
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    The point is, people are using (wrongly as shown) these independent event probabilities show how hard it is to gear up, and how mandatory valor items are.
    Let's take http://www.wowhead.com/item=89887, drop chance according to wowhead 7%
    For every one to get at least 1 Robe they would need to kill the Sha 65 times EACH.
    That's 65 weeks or a full year
    Some times there are more than one player who needs it in a raid, that only increases the amount of kills needed.
    Now look what vendors got!
    http://www.wowhead.com/item=89434
    Yeah 7 ilvls lower - but hey at least you can get it in a "week" (as people are boasting here how easy rep grind is).

  5. #505
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    Let's take http://www.wowhead.com/item=89887, drop chance according to wowhead 7%
    For every one to get at least 1 Robe they would need to kill the Sha 65 times EACH.
    That's 65 weeks or a full year
    Some times there are more than one player who needs it in a raid, that only increases the amount of kills needed.
    Now look what vendors got!
    http://www.wowhead.com/item=89434
    Yeah 7 ilvls lower - but hey at least you can get it in a "week" (as people are boasting here how easy rep grind is).
    See, now you are doing it again. You just can't treat independent events like that.

  6. #506
    Quote Originally Posted by madrox View Post
    It's these people - the players not quite at the cutting edge of raid progression - who made the loudest noise because they felt the biggest burnout. As you said, the HC raiders making progress quickly went past needing rep for the VP gear and the more "casual" players could take their time unlocking the rep and currency for the VP gear, but the guys sandwiched in between who did raid but didn't have the progression which invalidated the 489 gear as an upgrade choice felt as if they had to go and go the dailys on top of their raiding progression . You will get no argument from me that the dailys were not "mandatory" but at the same time the new, flexible approach to gear progression that Blizzard offerred us this xpac clearly failed for a large sub-section of players.
    Even normal mode raiders(being able to kill 1 heroic boss after a month of it being out is still normal mode imo) could easily progress without dailies. I got into a ragtag group about week 2-3 of MoP in mostly blues and we cleared a decent bit of MSV normal so claiming that it's HC raiders that can ignore dailies is wrong. The only people complaining about dailies are the people who don't even raid normal mode which they have no reason to complain since dailies are their main source of content. They don't need more gear to progress in raids so I really don't see why they are complaining. My lock is way behind on gear now and I could easily just jump into raids.

  7. #507
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    See, now you are doing it again. You just can't treat independent events like that.
    Like what? Don't waste thread space.

  8. #508
    Quote Originally Posted by spectrefax View Post
    Really sick of seeing this argument. The fact is, if you don't do dailies to unlock valor gear, you get gear locked and your character progression comes to a grinding halt.

    Let's take dungeons for example. The highest ilvl you can obtain off dungeons is 463. Then, you're left to grind LFR MSV for *months* (unless the rng gods just lay a golden brick on you) to reach 470 to queue for the remaining LFR raids.

    So, as a result, you're looking at grinding for PvP gear and/or spending 20-35k (sever prices may vary) for BoE pieces to fill in the slots you need as just acquiring the Sha boots and Klaxxi neck aren't going to cut it.

    Blizzard acknowledged this because the gear bottleneck must be an obvious eyesore from their overall player participation data.
    I'm having a lot of problems getting my alts up to ilvl without doing dalies. That alone makes rep and valor grinding feel mandatory.

  9. #509
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    Like what? Don't waste thread space.
    You are using independent event probabilities wrong.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    Let's take http://www.wowhead.com/item=89887, drop chance according to wowhead 7%
    For every one to get at least 1 Robe they would need to kill the Sha 65 times EACH.
    That's 65 weeks or a full year
    This is not how it works. 7% means just that, 7% chance each kill, independent from all other kills. The 7% doesn't say ANYTHING about how many kills you will need to get it.
    On the other hand, the chance of NOT having gotten it in 10 kills is 48%, in 20 kills it's 23%, and in 65 kills it's 0.9%
    So no, you are not guaranteed to get it after X kills, but it gets more and more unlikely as X goes up.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    Some times there are more than one player who needs it in a raid, that only increases the amount of kills needed.
    Yeah, I didn't get my T1 gloves until after I had full T2.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    Now look what vendors got!
    http://www.wowhead.com/item=89434
    Yeah 7 ilvls lower - but hey at least you can get it in a "week" (as people are boasting here how easy rep grind is).
    Valor cap says you can't.

  10. #510
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    Did I ever say I was content with it?
    Or did you perhaps miss the dozen of posts where I mentioned I REFUSED to do dailies because I hate them.

    The difference between 'forced' and 'feeling forced' is that when it just feels forced to some people you:
    A) Have people who don't feel it's forced.
    B) Can change their opinion and explain why it's not forced.

    I love that they changed the system.
    But that doesn't change anything about the fact that it was not forced.
    I don't believe that I made any mention of your happiness in regards to daily quests so I am not sure what your previous posts mentioning that you refuse to do them has do with anything. This is slightly off topic but I have, often, seen you claim that others have said something they have not and then attack them for something completely unrelated to their post. Do you behave like this because you get so angry that you simply do not read people's posts or is it because you are unable to put your point across and need to twist the argument in your favour?

    I realise that I am wasting my time because you appear to be unable to deal with the prospect of Blizzard being wrong and you appear to have a fundamental lack of understanding how the customer/company relationship works. Arguing whether something is forced or feels forced is nonsense and idiotic. It might not have been Blizzard's intention for dailies to feel forced however from the customer who feels this way's point of view that is irrelevant.

    In basic terms as a company if you have a product/service that people want/enjoy they will pay for it, if you don't they won't. There is no third option of provide something people don't like and then explain to them why they are wrong.

    It is not a fact that dailies were not forced, that is your opinion, the fact is many felt they were and many of them will have left the game a lot of them for good.

  11. #511
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    You are using independent event probabilities wrong.
    Nope.
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    This is not how it works. 7% means just that, 7% chance each kill, independent from all other kills. The 7% doesn't say ANYTHING about how many kills you will need to get it.
    Hohoho, but one can calculate how many kills it may take using binomial distribution.
    For "at least 1" case it's 65, that is n=65 (P = 0.99). With a high chance (0.9+) on getting 2.
    That means that everyone is likely to have this robe in 65 weeks. EVERYONE who needs it.
    Some will get it on week 1, others on week 65. Few won't at all. On average majority of people will get it around week 40. Which is too long too.
    It's still not 100% guarantee, but my point was about TIME not guarantees.
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    On the other hand, the chance of NOT having gotten it in 10 kills is 48%, in 20 kills it's 23%, and in 65 kills it's 0.9%
    Exactly, closing in on 65th kill you are likely to get one with a 1% chance to the contrary, which can happen still.
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    So no, you are not guaranteed to get it after X kills, but it gets more and more unlikely as X goes up.
    No one said anything about guarantees - my argument was about TIME and Valor Gear

    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    Valor cap says you can't.
    That's irrelevant, I know you ca't get to revered with Golden lotus in a week. Not to mention have enough VP to buy the item.
    But Terrace wasn't available right away and people had time to farm enough VP and enough rep, and it took them less than ~65 weeks to get a chest.

  12. #512
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    Nope.

    Hohoho, but one can calculate how many kills it may take using binomial distribution.
    For "at least 1" case it's 65, that is n=65 (P = 0.99). With a high chance (0.9+) on getting 2.
    That means that everyone is likely to have this robe in 65 weeks. EVERYONE who needs it.
    Some will get it on week 1, others on week 65. Few won't at all. On average majority of people will get it around week 40. Which is too long too.
    It's still not 100% guarantee, but my point was about TIME not guarantees.

    Exactly, closing in on 65th kill you are likely to get one with a 1% chance to the contrary, which can happen still.

    No one said anything about guarantees - my argument was about TIME and Valor Gear


    That's irrelevant, I know you ca't get to revered with Golden lotus in a week. Not to mention have enough VP to buy the item.
    But Terrace wasn't available right away and people had time to farm enough VP and enough rep, and it took them less than ~65 weeks to get a chest.
    And none of this makes valor gear mandatory.

  13. #513
    The Lightbringer Ermahgerd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pebrocks The Warlock View Post
    You just gave a few different examples that do not go with your argument. You say if you don't do the dailies you get progression locked. But you can farm LFR for gear (doesn't take months), buy gear off the AH or make the epics yourself, some heroics drop epics, Sha drops and Klaxxi neck do help no matter what you think. These are all gear you can get without doing a single daily.
    You're a bit naïve, aren't you?

    I'm pretty sure EVERYBODY who does PvE does LFR without a doubt. Which takes about 1 to 3 hours depending on luck. But you won't see a drop everytime you do LFR, because it's RNG = not a good way of relying on gearing up.

    Sha is also extremely RNG. Out of the 10~ sha's on two different characters I've only had TWO tier drops. Gloves for my monk and legs for my druid. Which is, yet again not a reliable way of gearing up because it's RNG.

    Buying gear off of the AH/making epics yourself REQUIRES YOU TO DO DAILIES. You NEED spirits of harmony from your farm which is a sort of daily activity. They also drop from mobs = mostly dailies. Making the money to even AFFORD epics from the AH requires you to either do proffessions or rely from gold income FROM DAILIES.

    Heroic drops are yet again not a reliable way of gearing up. I've done many heroics on my druid to get an ilvl 463 trinket, which took me about 3-4 days of grinding heroics. And I'm not even starting about my other items I got from heroics. Sure, it's a nice boost when you're lucky, but it's not an extremely reliable way of gearing up. Besides, the gear only goes up to ilvl 463.

    Also, doesn't the klaxxi necklance require you to do dailies since you need the reputation...?

    No matter what you say about dailies not being "mandatory", they are. They at least feel like they're mandatory in order to gear up reliably.

    I myself was lucky I had a shitton of time to play with, so I managed to get every reputation to exalted and get all of the mounts from them, but that doesn't mean I didn't felt obligated to do them. I missed one day of dailies and I already felt like I was behind everybody, which isn't really healthy for a player to feel like in a game IMO.

    Oh, and I forgot about the stupid coins for bonus loot rolls. That DEFINATELY made dailies feel mandatory. I mean, 3 extra chances on loot is HUGE. So don't tell me they didn't feel mandatory.

    OT: I'm not sure what the 5.2 dailies will be like, but I heard you had a choice between PvE and PvP dailies, right? If so, that would be awesome, but I'm still wondering how many dailies there will be.

  14. #514
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    And none of this makes valor gear mandatory.
    Nothing is mandatory in this game even the subscription. See how little sense your claim makes?

  15. #515
    Scarab Lord ringpriest's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Attsey View Post
    Maybe the "dumb masses" have taught Blizzard the meaning of the word optional in respect of the subscription fee.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    Huh? Care to explain that..?
    Because at the moment it doesn't make any sense.
    He's probably referring to how, a little over 3 months after the release of the newest expansion, WoW Subscriptions were down about several hundred thousand.

  16. #516
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    Nothing is mandatory in this game even the subscription. See how little sense your claim makes?
    Actually, if you want to play the (full) game the subscription is mandatory.
    If you want to raid you can do so without valor gear.

    The point is, there's a huge difference between feeling mandatory and being mandatory.
    Last edited by Idoru; 2013-03-04 at 01:50 PM.

  17. #517
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    Actually, if you want to play the (full) game the subscription is mandatory.
    No it is not. My wants are not needs. Therefore not mandatory.
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    But if you want to raid you can do so without valor gear.
    I can raid without it, but I will have difficulties in progress area. Because I (and everybody else who ignore VP gear) will be hindering the entire raid.
    We won't be hitting DPS checks.
    Our tanks will be dying a lot due to lack of good gear on tanks AND on healers.
    We are not Paragon.
    Quote Originally Posted by Idoru View Post
    The point is, there's a huge difference between feeling mandatory and being mandatory.
    Only in academic sense.
    In reality, if it feels mandatory - it is mandatory. I already paid my sub. So if to enjoy the rest of the game I have to do awful dailies - these dailies are mandatory as there's no refund and I want to play the rest of the game.
    Last edited by Elim Garak; 2013-03-04 at 02:05 PM.

  18. #518
    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    No it is not. My wants are not needs. Therefore not mandatory.

    I can raid without it, but I will have difficulties in progress area. Because I (and everybody else who ignore VP gear) will be hindering the entire raid.
    We won't be hitting DPS checks.
    Our tanks will be dying a lot due to lack of good gear on tanks AND on healers.
    We are not Paragon.

    Only in academic sense.
    In reality, if it feels mandatory - it is mandatory. I already paid my sub. So if to enjoy the rest of the game I have to do awful dailies - these dailies are mandatory as there's no refund and I want to play the rest of the game.
    I'm pretty sure Blizzard, at some point, stated that normal encounters weren't tuned for valor gear.

  19. #519
    Titan Kangodo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    I don't believe that I made any mention of your happiness in regards to daily quests so I am not sure what your previous posts mentioning that you refuse to do them has do with anything.
    Let me quote: "Whilst you are content to put up with whatever Blizzard throws at you"

    This is slightly off topic but I have, often, seen you claim that others have said something they have not and then attack them for something completely unrelated to their post. Do you behave like this because you get so angry that you simply do not read people's posts or is it because you are unable to put your point across and need to twist the argument in your favour?
    But you did say that: "Whilst you are content to put up with whatever Blizzard throws at you"

    I realise that I am wasting my time because you appear to be unable to deal with the prospect of Blizzard being wrong and you appear to have a fundamental lack of understanding how the customer/company relationship works. Arguing whether something is forced or feels forced is nonsense and idiotic. It might not have been Blizzard's intention for dailies to feel forced however from the customer who feels this way's point of view that is irrelevant.
    Why is it idiotic?
    If something is really forced, then discussion is impossible.
    "People force us to do raids for PVE-achievements!" < Can't discuss that.
    "People force us to do dailies." < That's wrong, you just 'FEEL' forced. That's something we can discuss.

    If people feel forced to do dailies which aren't intended to be forced upon the players, you can always talk to them and try to understand why they feel like that.
    And with that information you can decide about the direction of the game.

    It is not a fact that dailies were not forced, that is your opinion, the fact is many felt they were and many of them will have left the game a lot of them for good.
    Is it possible to obtain 480-gear without dailies?
    Yes, it is. Therefore it is proven that dailies are not forced.
    That makes it a fact.

  20. #520
    Herald of the Titans Lord Pebbleton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kangodo View Post
    10 times 10% chance isn't a 100% guarantee that you will get it.
    But simple chance-calculations tell us that the majority of the people will have it within those 10 tries.
    If the chance is always the same (10%), how come you say the majority of people getting it increases within 10 tries?

    Quote Originally Posted by Elim Garak View Post
    No, it has more drops, not higher drop chance.

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