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  1. #1
    Stood in the Fire Conjor's Avatar
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    RPPM Analysis + Haste Benefits / 5.2 Trinket Analysis

    Disclaimer: The math and spreadsheet that follow are based on an asymptotic analysis of the RPPM system and should not be taken to represent what you are likely to experience in game. I would be very surprised if any simulator agreed with the numbers here. That type of analysis works over discrete, bound time intervals while this analysis looks at the continuous, unbounded case. Judge the numbers accordingly.

    This is an approximation to what you will see in game. This analysis is completely theoretical. The spreadsheet is not a simulation tool and it was never meant to be one. It is not going to give you 100% accurate results. This is an attempt to see how the RPPM mechanic is expected to preform in a vacuum, on average, ad infinatum.

    It is important to remember that the entire RPPM system is based on randomness. Complete and utter randomness! All I can do with the math is tell you what, on average, you can expect to see. That is it. I do not claim anything more than that with my numbers.

    And yes, logs are nice, I have looked through a great many. Sometimes the trinket uptimes are less then my estimates. Sometimes they are more. That is just how the randomness of the RPPM system works. And I wouldn't have it any other way. I actually enjoy the system much more than the old one. This is definitely a case where understanding the inner workings of something does not detract from its "beauty" (if I can play on an old saying), but rather enhances it.[/quote]

    -------

    I've spent several (lost count) hours trying to figure out a good way to analyze the RPPM mechanic due to Hunters having to deal with it all over the place now (our T15 2set, all of our trinkets, ect). I originally planned to keep my findings in my guild and to only release my work to other theorycrafters, but yolo right?

    My initial impressions after the analysis have been that Haste is not the POS stat most of us think it is (at least when it comes to RPPM mechanics) and the whole argument of "shotshifting inflates its value" is not valid anymore.

    Step 1: Stack Haste.
    Step 2: ???
    Step 3: Profit?

    Here is the math behind it (those who fear math, tread lightly):
    http://www.pdfhost.net/index.php?Act...f0edb753daa857

    And here is the spreadsheet where I have been playing with the numbers:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...TTWp5b0E#gid=0

    If you want to play around with the values you will need to make your own copy of it.
    To copy it to your own Google Drive: File -> Make a copy...
    To download to your machine: File -> Download as...

    This is by no means meant to show that, for example, haste is better than mastery. It is intended to show the value of haste when it comes to increasing the value of RPPM based mechanics and hopefully to spark a discussion about how useful haste is when applied to the new trinkets we have access to in 5.2.

    The first page can be used by any class to get a good idea of how haste will affect your own RPPM trinket / enchant. The second page is meant for the Hunter trinkets alone. The third page is some napkin stuff I threw together this morning to look at the T15 bonuses (not complete yet!).

    Please, only comment on the accuracy of the data if you have an understanding of the math behind it. Refrain from comments like "you are wrong because Simcraft says so" or "I hit the dummy for an hour and saw xx% uptime. Yours is different!".

    Feedback / questions / comments are welcome! If you find an error in my math / logic let me know!

    Enjoy!
    Last edited by Conjor; 2013-04-22 at 01:08 PM.

  2. #2
    I'm a complete retard when it comes to maths so I won't comment on that. But what I do know is that the difference between Haste and Mastery is currently so low for BM and SV that once you have RPPM trinkets/set bonus you may as well go Haste > Mastery as the extra benefit from Haste will probably push it over Mastery since the difference is so low to begin with.

    I'm not sure how Simcraft/FD are currently with RPPM trinkets, but due to how I've seen my Soul Charm act ingame (ranging from 10-40% uptime and proccing 4 times in a row once) I couldn't really ever fully trust a sim for them at this point.


    One thing I want to try is going MM (where Haste has a higher value) and stacking all out Haste gems/reforge/enchant with RPPM trinkets/set bonus and see what happens. May take a while though as I plan to hold onto my T14 4set until near last in my group.
    Last edited by Glurp; 2013-03-11 at 04:20 PM.

  3. #3
    Legendary! Ryme's Avatar
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    Rogue coming in here, I just want to offer you my complete and utter thanks for starting the maths here - I have almost no time to work on things like this any more and you've laid out so much ground work all that seems to be done is verification which I will do tonight, if you don't mind
    I am the lucid dream
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  4. #4
    Stood in the Fire Conjor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Glurp View Post
    I'm a complete retard when it comes to maths so I won't comment on that. But what I do know is that the difference between Haste and Mastery is currently so low for BM and SV that once you have RPPM trinkets/set bonus you may as well go Haste > Mastery as the extra benefit from Haste will probably push it over Mastery since the difference is so low to begin with.

    I'm not sure how Simcraft/FD are currently with RPPM trinkets, but due to how I've seen my Soul Charm act ingame (ranging from 10-40% uptime and proccing 4 times in a row once) I couldn't really ever fully trust a sim for them at this point.


    One thing I want to try is going MM (where Haste has a higher value) and stacking all out Haste gems/reforge/enchant with RPPM trinkets/set bonus and see what happens. May take a while though as I plan to hold onto my T14 4set until near last in my group.
    I tried that last night (with the 4set T14) and I can tell you that it was fairly competitive. Marks, with enough haste and some RPPM trinkets, has very good damage. I would even consider it on some fights with multiple careful aim opportunities (Iron Qon and that hydra boss come to mind).

    The great thing about RPPM trinkets is that if they do proc back to back, that is nothing but a plus. It may feel like a loss, but statistically it does not hurt your chances at procs later on in the fight.

  5. #5
    Oh Conjor... do you have any idea how many times I've been in Duality mumble talking to Dime about all this only to have him respond with "Yeah" "Cool" "Totally" "Sounds good"....

    You're wasted on him. Tell him to get off his ass.

  6. #6
    Stood in the Fire Conjor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arktem View Post
    Oh Conjor... do you have any idea how many times I've been in Duality mumble talking to Dime about all this only to have him respond with "Yeah" "Cool" "Totally" "Sounds good"....

    You're wasted on him. Tell him to get off his ass.
    Burn burn burn! (inside joke)

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Conjor View Post
    I would even consider it on some fights with multiple careful aim opportunities (Iron Qon and that hydra boss come to mind).
    I can't comment on the maths, but I've seen a few people echo this idea that CA is inflated on 'fights with multiple CA phases' and it isn't making any sense to me.
    I would of thought that generally speaking the opposite would be true. If it were a single target fight you would spend just as much time under CA except it is all front loaded. Add fights you get multiple split up CA phases that don't last as long.
    With heroism, CDs and procs on the pull you want CA to be frontloaded. Those cooldowns likely won't be up for later CA phases.
    Also you have the problem of ramp up time. With all the MoP talents it takes a long time to get ramped up and hardcasting aimed shots, which further benefits a longer frontloaded CA. I tried MM on Magaera and CA phase is practically over before you can start casting aimed shots.

    I think CA heavily benefits single target fights compared to 'multiple CA opportunity' fights. Did I miss something?

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by mediic View Post
    I can't comment on the maths, but I've seen a few people echo this idea that CA is inflated on 'fights with multiple CA phases' and it isn't making any sense to me.
    I would of thought that generally speaking the opposite would be true. If it were a single target fight you would spend just as much time under CA except it is all front loaded. Add fights you get multiple split up CA phases that don't last as long.
    With heroism, CDs and procs on the pull you want CA to be frontloaded. Those cooldowns likely won't be up for later CA phases.
    Also you have the problem of ramp up time. With all the MoP talents it takes a long time to get ramped up and hardcasting aimed shots, which further benefits a longer frontloaded CA. I tried MM on Magaera and CA phase is practically over before you can start casting aimed shots.

    I think CA heavily benefits single target fights compared to 'multiple CA opportunity' fights. Did I miss something?
    I agree with you completely, I don't know why people talk about multiple CA as being great. Every head in my 25man Magera kill was under 80% in about 8-15 seconds, barely enough time to get 2 Aimed Shots when you consider the rest of your rotation as well.

  9. #9
    So conjor, what is your opinion on the choice of BiS trinkets. Is bloodlust trinket from Primordious deemed more important than any others due to RPPM

  10. #10
    As far as I know, the rune of reorigination gives double the stats it reduces (i.e. should be =2*($N$17+$N$18) ). Additionally, blue posts have stated that RPPM now uses "true" haste which is... a little unclear. May or may not count the attack speed raid buff, definitely doesn't count slice and dice or similar effects.

    Also I'm not sure why you're giving shado-pan and renataki's both mastery and crit? Are you just estimating the hit/expertise at about the value of mastery?

    I wouldn't assume that last-chance-to-proc is only capped while out of combat. I can't think of any scenarios where you spend over 10 seconds not attacking while in combat anyway.
    Last edited by kindath; 2013-03-11 at 06:18 PM.

  11. #11
    I found a small error on your sheet Hunter T15.

    When calculating the benefit of 2pc.. in the cells Maximum TTP, you forgot to lock C11 (the haste) so the haste is not taken into consideration for Beast Mastery and Survival... This will increase the minimum DPS for BM and Surv.

    ---------- Post added 2013-03-11 at 07:05 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by kindath View Post
    Also I'm not sure why you're giving shado-pan and renataki's both mastery and crit? Are you just estimating the hit/expertise at about the value of mastery?
    I would suggest reading his notes.

    For those trinkets with hit / expertise: Because of how reforging works, all Hit / Expertise will be reduced to 40% Crit and 60% (through our other gear, and at best) to our second best secondary stat. Assuming Mastery (you may want to modify this)

    ---------- Post added 2013-03-11 at 07:23 PM ----------

    Another question.. Have you taken diminishing returns of Haste into consideration (if that is still a thing..).

    Also, if I add my (awesome) haste of 2207, it nets me 13,68% (3,68% without the buff) in your sheet, but says 5,19% in-game...

    Another thing.. Wasn't things that increase attack speed (The 10% buff, heroism etc.) NOT affecting RPPM? Can't find the blue source, but it was on frontpage of here.

  12. #12
    Stood in the Fire Conjor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganbai View Post
    I found a small error on your sheet Hunter T15.

    When calculating the benefit of 2pc.. in the cells Maximum TTP, you forgot to lock C11 (the haste) so the haste is not taken into consideration for Beast Mastery and Survival... This will increase the minimum DPS for BM and Surv.
    ^^ Fixed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ganbai View Post
    Another thing.. Wasn't things that increase attack speed (The 10% buff, heroism etc.) NOT affecting RPPM? Can't find the blue source, but it was on frontpage of here.
    I remember reading stuff about that but when I was making this spreadsheet I couldn't find the details on it. If you find it let me know.

    EDIT

    http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/to...?page=109#2169

    I'll see if I can rework some things to better show this.
    Last edited by Conjor; 2013-03-11 at 06:46 PM.

  13. #13
    Only haste effects will increase RPPM rate. Attack speed effects don't. Haste effects are different from attack speed effects in that they also increase our regen rate. For hunters, the only abilities which increase attack speed but not haste that I can think of are the raid attack speed buff and MM's steady focus. Focus fire, rapid fire, berserking, heroism are all haste effects.

    With regards to the time since last change to proc, I've seen nothing to indicate that the cap only applies while out of combat. I don't recall a specific question on the topic, but I believe they were just using that as an example of why they put that in, not actually saying that it's only an out of combat thing.

  14. #14
    Here is the source. It's after the class Reviews.

    This also mentions ICDs on some of the trinkets (I don't know if they have to be included in your spreadsheet).

    I just want to say that it is amazing what you are doing, and the reason for my pinpoints, is in hopes that I can contribute with just the slightest amount. :P

  15. #15
    Oh I forgot another attack speed bonus- the goblin racial is attack speed and not haste I believe.

  16. #16
    Stood in the Fire Conjor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganbai View Post
    Here is the source. It's after the class Reviews.

    This also mentions ICDs on some of the trinkets (I don't know if they have to be included in your spreadsheet).

    I just want to say that it is amazing what you are doing, and the reason for my pinpoints, is in hopes that I can contribute with just the slightest amount. :P
    The original analysis assumed a few things, and one of them assumed no ICD and no stacks. Adding an ICD is as easy as changing the range of integration of some parts. I may add it in if I get some time.

    --Edit

    I added it in. The values of the ones with ICD dropped by a tiny bit (as I expected).
    Last edited by Conjor; 2013-03-11 at 07:26 PM.

  17. #17
    I would suggest reading his notes.

    For those trinkets with hit / expertise: Because of how reforging works, all Hit / Expertise will be reduced to 40% Crit and 60% (through our other gear, and at best) to our second best secondary stat. Assuming Mastery (you may want to modify this)
    Good call. I'm used to just estimating cap-able stats at the value of the highest secondary.

    Sorry if I'm completely wrong, but I had a closer look at the math... RPPM effects don't care about the last time they proc'd, the only care about the last CHANCE they had to proc. The point was just to even out proc chances in situations with enormous amounts of hits per second with situations with very few. By the same token, p(t) will never be 100%, because last-chance-to-proc is capped at 10s. That makes sure the first hit won't be 100% proc chance, and in combat you're swinging multiple times per second anyway.
    Last edited by kindath; 2013-03-11 at 07:00 PM.

  18. #18
    I like the math you did here. I'm looking over it and trying to get a better understanding of this RPPM non-sense lol. So was our original theory wrong in what trinkets were BiS right now? Judging by the sheet it looks like Renataki's Soul Charm and Bad Juju will be BiS. From normal 522 and up.

  19. #19
    Stood in the Fire Conjor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kindath View Post
    Good call. I'm used to just estimating cap-able stats at the value of the highest secondary.

    Sorry if I'm completely wrong, but I had a closer look at the math... RPPM effects don't care about the last time they proc'd, the only care about the last CHANCE they had to proc. The point was just to even out proc chances in situations with enormous amounts of hits per second with situations with very few. By the same token, p(t) will never be 100%, because last-chance-to-proc is capped at 10s. That makes sure the first hit won't be 100% proc chance, and in combat you're swinging multiple times per second anyway.
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeherah View Post
    Only haste effects will increase RPPM rate. Attack speed effects don't. Haste effects are different from attack speed effects in that they also increase our regen rate. For hunters, the only abilities which increase attack speed but not haste that I can think of are the raid attack speed buff and MM's steady focus. Focus fire, rapid fire, berserking, heroism are all haste effects.

    With regards to the time since last change to proc, I've seen nothing to indicate that the cap only applies while out of combat. I don't recall a specific question on the topic, but I believe they were just using that as an example of why they put that in, not actually saying that it's only an out of combat thing.
    If this were indeed the case, then why put an ICD on a trinket larger than the maximum time that the RPPM will count for? For example, Renataki's Soul Charm has an ICD of 22 seconds. If the RPPM counter was stuck at 10 seconds, what is the point of even having the RPPM system? Why not just have a traditional ICD trinket with the proc rate at p(10) [for whatever values Renataki's is set at].

    It makes no sense to throw on all this RPPM stuff to only have it modify the chance of procing over a time where it cannot proc (because it is on ICD).

    To make it simpler, between time t = 0 and t = 22, the trinket cannot possibly proc because it is on its ICD.
    If p(t) was defined as follows: if t <= 10, p(t) = <insert RPPM formula>. Else, p(t) = p(10).
    What effect would that have? None. Why not just have a regular ICD trinket with chance to proc = p(10)?

    This system only makes sense if, while in combat, t is unbounded but while out of combat, t is bounded to 10.
    Last edited by Conjor; 2013-03-11 at 07:30 PM.

  20. #20
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    I imagine it is unbounded incombat, but if there was a fight where you were not active, (like Lei Shen's transition, for example) it might be capped at 10s. I'm not sure, someone will have to confirm. Think the old 5 second rule for healers in terms of mana regen.

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