Even China has had enough

[Deleted]

North Korean relations to its biggest supporter have cooled due to the recent nuclear tests.

Just half a year ago, China enthused that North Korea is a great place for investment. Since then the country conducted a nuclear test, as well as launched a long-distance missile, and the Chinese opinion has changed.
Chinese newspapers call on North Korea to be a thankless and unstable risk factor. Businessmen no longer desire to even mention the country in their speeches.
China has not, at least not yet, cancelled its official partnership for its communist partner, but the countries are no longer "thick as thieves".

- In my opinion, China's policy toward the Korean peninsula has had a significant and recognizable change, says Beijing University International Security Training Program director Zhu Feng.

According to Zhu, China is confident that the diplomatic sanctions to North Korea will change the country to alter its behavior.

- Beijing has finally woken up to reality.

In the UN Security Council, Beijing turned visibly in favor of tough sanctions against North Korea.

Earlier, China has opposed the sanctions planned against North Korea, and even on last Saturday, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said that the sanctions cannot solve the current situation.
The nuclear test made by North Korea on Tuesday, however, eventually changed the opinion of China, and the country negotiated with Washington about the new sanctions. On Thursday it was announced that the sanctions will be tightened, with all cargo going to the country will be strictly inspected and exporting luxury goods will be greatly restricted.
China is also frustrated because it has not been able to guide Pyongyang towards economic prosperity.


One of the issues is also the fact that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has not yet sworn his "peasant"-oath to China at all, unlike his father and grandfather. Kim Jong-un has not visited China after the death of his father.
Previously, China felt slight sympathy for the Korean War-era brother-in-arms, but now, as China's economic power grows, North Korea is thought of derisively and the country is blamed to be incapable of understanding.


Even the Communist Party propaganda-tabloid, The Global Times, urged China to break off relations with North Korea completely.

"This China-North Korea "friendship"does not depend on the current mood of Pyongyang at all", the Journal wrote in an editorial.

Found this on a news site, tried to translate it as best as I could, so some parts may be a bit off, but I think the basic idea should come through.

[Deleted]

I say it again:

I've been thinking about this: What if China decided to invade North Korea? In a hypothetical situation where war is inevitable:

- China says they invade North Korea in order to prevent any nuclear exchange on the Asian continent.
- China blitzkriegs Pyongyang (let's face it, if China decided to attack North Korea Pyongyang sure as hell would be screwed), showing off the new, modern Chinese army to the rest of the world, thus making China look powerful.
- China installs a way more China-friendly puppet regime in North Korea in order to keep North Korea as a buffer zone between China and the US instead of annexing North Korea entirely, thus letting the North Korean regime deal with the brainwashed people instead of China having to take care of those poor folks.

[Skroe]

China won't do anything, because at the end of the day, they fear the 200,000 strong US / UN occupation force that would now have land access to China, more than they do North Korea being nuts.

[Deleted]

About time.

[Valerean]

Now would be the worst possible time for the Chinese to try anything like that.

They're in the closing stages of executing a leadership change, attempting to assert territorial dominance without triggering a regional arms race, and heading rapidly towards a period of economic uncertainty as their artificial growth finally starts to stagnate.

Any military action undertaken by China would also result in several million North Korean refugees fleeing unchecked across their borders.

[Deleted]

I say it again:

If they invade it, they should fully annex it. Why? Well, the chinese economy is already wasting resources to grow (empty cities in deserts for example) but don't those cities need people? Well there you go, now they can build cities where the people of former North Korea could live and still make the chinese economy grow while doing something useful.

[muto]

If a war happens with North Korea and N.K. is defeated. I think North Korea will either have new government installed, similar to Japan after WW2, or North Korea will be rejoined with South Korea under the name "Korea", and be governed in the same way South Korea is governed.

[Trisrx]

China knows NK is being suicidal, they sure as hell dont want dragged into a war because of them.

[Maxilian]

If they invade it, they should fully annex it. Why? Well, the chinese economy is already wasting resources to grow (empty cities in deserts for example) but don't those cities need people? Well there you go, now they can build cities where the people of former North Korea could live and still make the chinese economy grow while doing something useful.

Yeah, and will most likely try to have "friendly" talks with South Korea wanting to get:

1- A better reputation
2- Make it easier to transport his population and army around Korea

[Deleted]

I don't think China will have any problems with it if the USA invaded or nuked N Korea now. :P

[Trisrx]

I don't think China will have any problems with it if the USA invaded or nuked N Korea now. :P

That word nuke gets thrown around so much I think it has lost potency, people think frostbolt is a 'nuke'. China definitely would have a problem with a modern nuclear weapon flattening their back yard. Most of the world, and even most Americans would be outraged as well. You cant annihilate tons of innocent people like that and expect no reprisal. USA isnt going to be nuking anyone.

[Deleted]

China is wary of direct, or indirect conflict - and as such is distancing themselves from any potential ricochet of international sanctions/ warnings.

That said, if the north did decide to initiate a conflict - im fairly certain china would supply them with various materials needed to sustain a prolonged conflict of attrition. And we all know how the U.S has fared against those theatres, or rather - how every army has.

China is just moving there hand away, to avoid a potential bite - or to be dragged into a conflict.

[Osmeric]

China won't do anything, because at the end of the day, they fear the 200,000 strong US / UN occupation force that would now have land access to China, more than they do North Korea being nuts.

I could totally see the US making a deal where they support China annexing North Korea. South Korea would have to be bought off somehow.

[Skroe]

I could totally see the US making a deal where they support China annexing North Korea. South Korea would have to be bought off somehow.

North and South Korean unification would make the German Unification look easy.

This is a country that didn't know man landed on the moon until 1999 because Americans did it.

Annexing? Japan and South Korea would have huge problems with that. And North Koreans have the right to choose their future.

I think either one of two things will happen. Either North Korea will forever remain the nuclear armed hermit kingdom and be as it is now for another century, or one day they'll make-like-Myanmar, get wise to their international isolation, and open up.

Frankly, I don't think North Korea is ever going anywhere.

[Deleted]

North and South Korean unification would make the German Unification look easy.

This is a country that didn't know man landed on the moon until 1999 because Americans did it.

Annexing? Japan and South Korea would have huge problems with that. And North Koreans have the right to choose their future.

I think either one of two things will happen. Either North Korea will forever remain the nuclear armed hermit kingdom and be as it is now for another century, or one day they'll make-like-Myanmar, get wise to their international isolation, and open up.

Frankly, I don't think North Korea is ever going anywhere.

Uniting North and South Korea will pretty much cripple South Koreas economy, they are going to be flooded with millions of starving, uneducated, brainwashed refugees.

[Deleted]

China basically is playing hardball now because Pyongyang has disrespected them.

As the quote says the new Kim has not visited or made any overtures to China and gone ahead with Nukes despite the objections of their big supporter.

China is now in a position of having to remind the North who its in their best interests to keep on side.

[Valerean]

All they have to do to achieve that is significantly reduce their trade and aid to NK.

Sanctions until now have only had a limited effect on the DPRK because China makes up the shortfall. You remove that and suddenly Kim Jong Fat is caught between a rock and a hard place - he'll squeal and stamp his little feet, but ultimately he'll have to go crawling back to Beijing or his army will starve. Simple as.

[Deleted]

This is an interesting topic and I read some article somewhere, which was very in-depth (can't find it now though -.-) which brought up the following, obviously paraphrased:

1. The only reason why South Korea puts up with the US forces on their soil is because of North Korea and its disposition towards them. If something happened so that the American presence was no longer needed then the South Koreans would gladly bid the American troops farewell.

2. A reunification of Korea in the near future is pretty much impossible - the Kim Jongs obviously won't step down willingly and none is going to let them conquer the South either. And the South don't want a reunification either, they simply will not benefit from taking the North Koreans in, uneducated, technologically behind and starving as they are. South Korea is a wealthy country and North Korea might well be one of the most poorly managed in the world. 60 years have passed during which a huge cultural gap has developed, a gap that won't be easily bridged from either side.

3. If North Korea does collapse rather than allow itself to be reintegrated into a unified Korean state over time, the consequences would be enormous. Who woulc clean up the mess? How to feed, clothe and shelter 20-25 million North Koreans who already live in poor conditions when their state is fairly intact, what will their condition be like when anarchy reigns? What will the North Korean army do? It's large and armed, those guns won't just go away and neither will the men and women who wield them. What about the nukes, what if some nutjobs get hold of them and hold cities, millions of people, ransom, knowing it is their only way out?

So let's assume that sometime down the road North Korea is dismantled, either by force or peacefully, and the process of reintegration with South Korea begins. Skip ahead a few decades and Korea is a functional country again. US troops have been withdrawn as the Koreans don't want them there, UN and Chinese troops are no longer needed to keep the peace or whatever in the Northern half.

To who would this Korean state look for help and protection? They have kicked out the US as the South has for a long time loathed the American presence on the peninsula but accepted it due to their crazy Northern neighbour. Japan is the neighbour across the sea in the east, and not a friend of Korea and maybe never has been. China shares a similar view of Japan, evident in the current conflict over the Senaku/Daiyutao islands. And Japan, having grown more nationalistic over the years, is carried by their buddy USA if anything would happen (probably ample reason why the above mentioned conflict won't escalate any further).

So the US traditionally supports Japan, Korea cut their military ties to the US once the US was no longer needed and China is the big guy on the block who have no real reason to cause trouble in Korea. China would benefit from befriending Korea and Korea would benefit from becoming a friend of China. As such a Korean diplomatic drift towards China once the North is dealth with and the US withdrawn fairly likely.

And what would the US do about that? Considering the subject of this thread, China's newfound distaste of North Korea, and the paraphrasing from the lost article above, I think it's quite likely that the US is okay with the current status quo, and China is beginning to realize they could benefit from changing it. But it's all speculation, right?

[mikeakanice]

This is an interesting topic and I read some article somewhere, which was very in-depth (can't find it now though -.-) which brought up the following, obviously paraphrased:

1. The only reason why South Korea puts up with the US forces on their soil is because of North Korea and its disposition towards them. If something happened so that the American presence was no longer needed then the South Koreans would gladly bid the American troops farewell.

2. A reunification of Korea in the near future is pretty much impossible - the Kim Jongs obviously won't step down willingly and none is going to let them conquer the South either. And the South don't want a reunification either, they simply will not benefit from taking the North Koreans in, uneducated, technologically behind and starving as they are. South Korea is a wealthy country and North Korea might well be one of the most poorly managed in the world. 60 years have passed during which a huge cultural gap has developed, a gap that won't be easily bridged from either side.

3. If North Korea does collapse rather than allow itself to be reintegrated into a unified Korean state over time, the consequences would be enormous. Who woulc clean up the mess? How to feed, clothe and shelter 20-25 million North Koreans who already live in poor conditions when their state is fairly intact, what will their condition be like when anarchy reigns? What will the North Korean army do? It's large and armed, those guns won't just go away and neither will the men and women who wield them. What about the nukes, what if some nutjobs get hold of them and hold cities, millions of people, ransom, knowing it is their only way out?

So let's assume that sometime down the road North Korea is dismantled, either by force or peacefully, and the process of reintegration with South Korea begins. Skip ahead a few decades and Korea is a functional country again. US troops have been withdrawn as the Koreans don't want them there, UN and Chinese troops are no longer needed to keep the peace or whatever in the Northern half.

To who would this Korean state look for help and protection? They have kicked out the US as the South has for a long time loathed the American presence on the peninsula but accepted it due to their crazy Northern neighbour. Japan is the neighbour across the sea in the east, and not a friend of Korea and maybe never has been. China shares a similar view of Japan, evident in the current conflict over the Senaku/Daiyutao islands. And Japan, having grown more nationalistic over the years, is carried by their buddy USA if anything would happen (probably ample reason why the above mentioned conflict won't escalate any further).

So the US traditionally supports Japan, Korea cut their military ties to the US once the US was no longer needed and China is the big guy on the block who have no real reason to cause trouble in Korea. China would benefit from befriending Korea and Korea would benefit from becoming a friend of China. As such a Korean diplomatic drift towards China once the North is dealth with and the US withdrawn fairly likely.

And what would the US do about that? Considering the subject of this thread, China's newfound distaste of North Korea, and the paraphrasing from the lost article above, I think it's quite likely that the US is okay with the current status quo, and China is beginning to realize they could benefit from changing it. But it's all speculation, right?

I'd love to know who wrote that article. Because my betting money is that their credentials aren't respectable. Saying that South Korea secretly hates America? I mean people can write anything on the internet these days. Doesn't mean they're not a lunatic.