I agree, there are some fights where you can pinpoint one talent being better than the other, but then there's some fights where heated discussion always pops up because it's a little iffy which is best.
Originally Posted by Ragingblaze
I did an analysis on three logs: Shroomkin's #1 10H Jin'rokh parse, Fountaiin's #1 25H Jin'rokh parse and my own 10H Jin'rokh kill from this week. Just from the first two logs alone you can see the huge disparity between 10 and 25 man raiding, but I digress.
It's fairly easy to calculate the damage received from talents like Incarnation, NV and HotW - or would have contributed. It's a little harder to predict the damage of FoN, but not impossible.
Total Damage: 45,008,395
Total Damage (during CDs): 24,519,547 (time range is http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-yd...e/?s=335&e=365)
Total Incarnation Damage = (Total Damage) - (Total Damage)/1.25 = 4,903,909 = 10.90%
Total NV Damage = (Total Damage) - (Total Damage)/1.1 = 2,229,049 = 4.95%
We now have our numbers of the talents he used, so let's compare them to the talents he didn't use.
Total HotW Damage = (Total Damage - NV)*1.05 - (Total Damage - NV) = 2,138,967 = 4.76%
Total FoN Damage = 3,228,602 = 7.45%
To model FoN damage I went to the Zoomx log you cited and looked at the damage his trees were doing, and just cut off their damage at the point where Shroomkin would have finished his fight. We're assuming Zoomx's Treants would do roughly the same amount as Shroomkin's had he used them, but at least this is more representative than not modelling all the cooldowns/buffs present at the beginning of the fight.
From this log, we can see Inc/NV was the best choice for the very short kill of Jin'rokh. HotW and NV are very close together, and the difference between their contributory DPS is minimal (0.19%). This is equivalent to 619 DPS overall. Therefore, this test is inconclusive for NV vs. HotW, as the two talents are too close together.
However, the spread between Incarnation and FoN is significant. A 2.45% contributory DPS spread between the two turns out to be 8291 DPS overall. This is mainly due to cooldowns/buffs being present for the first pool which will multiply against Incarnation very well and FoN not as much. Haste will make CA damage skyrocket, whereas haste buffs will only add additional casts to FoN if they reach a breakpoint. As well, they have a chance of going weird if NG/meta/hero are all aligned together. The shorter fight also favours Incarnation as FoN can be seen as passive over a whole encounter. Also, we can't exclude Incarnation benefitting from the pools and FoN not. Consequently, we see a large disparity between the two talents.
Total Damage: 67,505,111
Total Damage (during CDs): 25,023,931 (during Incarnation), 34,160,591 (during NV)
Total Incarnation Damage = 5,004,786 = 7.41%
Total NV Damage = 3,105,508 = 4.60%
Total HotW Damage = 3,219,980 = 4.76%
Total FoN Damage = 3,561,107 = 5.39%
From these logs we see HotW and NV flip-flopped - but like I said in the previous log analysis, the gap is too close to make conclusions. A mere 617 DPS separates these guys, less than Shroomkin's logs even though Fountaiin did 14% more DPS, and it's in HotW's favour. Note that Fountaiin's kill was 42 seconds longer than Shroomkin's, and would have contributed to the HotW/NV swap. Regardless, the two talents are essentially even.
Incarnation and FoN kept their disparity though. 2.02% stands between the L60 talents, a bit lower than the previous logs as well. I'd say this is due to the longer fight length.
Finally, we get to my run-of-the-mill logs.
Total Damage: 75,395,458
Total Damage (during CDs): 16,700,193
Total Incarnation Damage = 4,175,048 = 5.54%
Total HotW Damage = 3,590,260 = 4.76%
To find NV damage we need to add in another use between the 3 min CD phases, and during this period 5,165,853 damage was dealt.
Total NV Damage = 2,082,481 = 2.90%
Total FoN Damage = 4,026,735 = 5.35%
We can see a marked difference in HotW and NV this time. Because my fight had a length of 4:38, the initial burst of NV would have mattered less, and the lengthiness of the fight contributed to a lot more HotW damage. A 1.86% damage difference, equating to 5026 DPS. Quite a big difference when the fight length increases. This brings about a different way of thinking about the two talents - instead of comparing them on a damage mod basis, we could instead compare them on fight length. As fight length increases, HotW increases more than NV. Could definitely be something we pay special attention to in 5.4.
FoN and Incarnation closed their gap as well - in fact, they closed it so much that they're essentially the same. Only 0.19% damage is in Incarnation's favour, meaning 513 DPS. This is an important fact as well, in that FoN also approaches (and most likely surpasses) Incarnation as the fight length goes up.
We can make some very important conclusions from these limited results. While I've only shown three samples of data, the calculation of Incarnation/NV/HotW contributory damage is very accurate since we are only dealing with damage modifiers over certain periods. FoN is a rough estimation based on treants during burst (first ~minute or so) and then more steady treants (anything after that) from Zoomx's log. Nonetheless, we come to two points:
1. Fight length plays an important part in talent choice. Shorter fights will favour our cooldowns heavily (Incarnation & NV), whereas longer fights will make our "passive" talents better (HotW & FoN). This means that the top logs at the beginning of the tier will most likely use the passive talents, and by the end of the tier will be mostly made up of the cooldown talents. It also means citing logs at the end of a tier with cooldown talents is not corollary to them being the best talents overall, like you said. While fights themselves do play an important part when choosing between Incarnation and FoN, fight length is also a variable that should be considered.
2. We can't always rely on models for talent choices. That might sound in opposition to what I normally say, but it's true. Cooldown stacking and extra buffs being present during cooldowns can have a huge impact on the total damage that cooldown does, and is either a) not accounted for entirely in WrathCalcs, or b) difficult to analyse or model correctly in SimCraft. Since NV and HotW can be easily assessed through logs, I don't see why we shouldn't do it more often - the numbers should be very accurate and will give us a practical way to compare the two. The only real outlier is FoN, since it isn't a flat damage modifier, but maybe we can come up with some generalisations on fight length/fight type to equate it to Incarnation. Something to work on, at least.
Anyway, that's about all I can gather from those logs. Overall I agree with your assertions Ragingblaze. I think we can definitely learn more by analysing our damage from different standpoints, and combining the knowledge we gain from them all. Definitely some food for thought, at the minimum.