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  1. #1

    Do I detect a small resurgence of the raiding community?

    After I started the post "Where have all the raiders gone" I still continued to scour the depths of my fading realm. Searching far and wide (/1 or /2 insert recruiting macro). All of a sudden to my surprise i began running into the issue of having to many healers. Then I had to let a good dps go because I just didn't have a spot.

    Has anyone else noticed this?

    Also, I have noticed there is a new influx of people wanting to raid who have never sliced the divine cake of whooping some boss A$$. I have also seen more and more young players joining the ranks of the Nerd-ragers and Elitests on this fine game.

  2. #2
    It's almost as if subscribers come in waves, with old players constantly quitting and new players filling the ranks. This would create the effect of the raiding community shrinking at some times, while growing in others.

    It's almost as if this is what has been happening since forever. What a bizarre concept.

  3. #3
    Wishful thinking I'm afraid.

    All guilds worldwide but China
    T13 62648
    T14 44108
    T15 21945

    Sounds like you've picked up a couple players from other guilds that fell apart.
    Did you think we had forgotten? Did you think we had forgiven?

  4. #4
    Pandaren Monk Evela's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Galaddriel View Post
    Wishful thinking I'm afraid.

    All guilds worldwide but China
    T13 62648
    T14 44108
    T15 21945

    Sounds like you've picked up a couple players from other guilds that fell apart.
    There's no way those numbers are accurate.

  5. #5
    Are you raiding more now? If yes, confirmation bias.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by DanielBrems View Post
    There's no way those numbers are accurate.
    Indeed they are. Taken directly from WoWprogress.
    http://www.wowprogress.com/

    The US is looking particularly dire.
    T13 25120
    T14 16999
    T15 8583
    Did you think we had forgotten? Did you think we had forgiven?

  7. #7
    Moderator MoanaLisa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eisenstein View Post
    Also, I have noticed there is a new influx of people wanting to raid who have never sliced the divine cake of whooping some boss A$$. I have also seen more and more young players joining the ranks of the Nerd-ragers and Elitests on this fine game.
    What you experienced is most likely a local effect caused by guild breakups.

    However, it's perfectly fair to say that there are more new raiders around than ever before, most of them in LFR and some small percentage of them have an interest and the skill and might be looking to move up. Even a relatively small percentage of LFR participants relative to the normal/heroic population might seem like a lot of people. If they've never raided before at the normal/heroic level this may have something to do with it.

    In addition, word of mouth about raiding is currently pretty good right now what with the new raid so some people might be returning or good players who gave up on raiding in the past being curious enough to put themselves out there again.
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  8. #8
    The normal/heroic model is a complete failure and won't hold out in the long run. Guilds don't care enough to clear the same thing again on heroic anymore. Bring back BC-style/pre-Icecrown style raiding and people will love it.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by DanielBrems View Post
    There's no way those numbers are accurate.
    They are but they don't tell the full story.

    T13 was "current content" for close to a year. It finished up being nerfed to bones. Anyone who had 10 players, no matter what their skill level was taking down Morchok.

    T14 is a fair step up from that, and during T13, many poor guilds became LFR casual guilds. They still "raid" together, but their aims are to do LFR every week, rather than kill maybe one or two bosses late in a raid cycle. They don't raid any more. They still play, but the "easy content" they craved has been moved out of the WowProgress figures.

    T15 hasn't been out long at all. It will go up from that figure, probably to around 35k. LFR will eliminate yet more guilds between T14 and T15. There's only so much failure a person will take before admitting defeat and doing LFR only.

    Raiding is slowly falling back to the more hardcore players. The extreme casuals are learning that their place is LFR.

  10. #10
    The Lightbringer Raugnaut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Galaddriel View Post
    Wishful thinking I'm afraid.

    All guilds worldwide but China
    T13 62648
    T14 44108
    T15 21945

    Sounds like you've picked up a couple players from other guilds that fell apart.
    Consider

    T13 was out for close to a year. It was also nerfed by 35% (If a guild could NOT down morchok by this time, they had absolutely no business raiding). The fights themselves were simple and easy, with the exception of spine.

    T14 was out for only 6 months. The first fight, Stone Guard, required more action/awareness on the tanks part then any single T13 fight. The second fight required even more action then the first fight. The third fight wasn't as bad, but required tanks to be able to find an add and kill it within 30 seconds- relatively simple, but undoubtedly there are some tanks that STILL fail at that. Finally, WoWprogress is still tracking guilds going in and killing bosses for first time (One of the 2 guilds aiming for realm first went in and cleared H protectors/tsulong a few weeks after 5.2, something that wasnt downed before. It showed up on WoWprogress)

    T15 has barely been out for a month. The first few fights, with the exception of Jin'rokh (Who has a 100%[?] success rate on downing him, according to WoWprogress), require a good amount of raid awareness, dps capability, healing capability, tank awareness, ect. Tortos, before the turtle/bat nerf, was BRUTAL for awareness depending on comps. A comp without a hunter, and a druid/warrior tank would find it difficult to pick up bats before they smacked someone. A comp without a frost DK or someone who has a easily spammable AoE slow would find turtles dashing across the fight, knocking up healers, dps, and turtle kickers at the worst possible time, creating a wipe.

    So, yes. The number of guilds that have downed DS will undoubtedly be significantly higher then the number of guilds that have downed any other raid with the possible exception of ICC (Given that ICC was out a few months longer then DS. The fights were significantly more difficult then DS fights, however.) T14/15 is significantly harder, has not been out anywhere NEAR as long as DS has, and hasn't been nerfed as much as DS was at the end.


    IMO, the amount of raiders is pretty much stable and consistent. DS, towards the end, was being raided of a bunch of guilds that had those players that did 10k dps in LFR, on Madness, or healers that went oom in 30 seconds, or tanks that faced bosses with breaths towards the raid, ect. These kinds of players would get stomped on repeatedly by Stone Guard and Vizier, to the point that they just give up raiding and get carried in LFRs.

    So, yea. Stable amount of raiders, the decline of number of guilds from T13 to T14 is due to T13 being out for so long, and being so nerfed that the only way a group could fail at morchok is if they pulled and only had 1 action per 10 seconds, or something equally subpar. Heck, lvl 80s have cleared the place on HEROIC. I wonder thier success rate on, say, heroic Rag.
    Last edited by Raugnaut; 2013-04-20 at 04:24 PM. Reason: Looked and WoWprogress has a 100.00% success rate on guilds downing Jin'Rokh- if they have attempted Jin enough to register on WoWprogress, they have downed him.
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  11. #11
    Since they have made the game easier to get into with cheaper battelchests (It cost 150 bucks to get in at cata release and no new player is going to sink that much into an mmo), having all the races playable from just vanilla box, and adding in LFR to let people who have never raided to have a taste of the magic + some gear that would make them not drag the whole raid down (now its a question of skill rather than gear) there will naturally be some upswing. I know there are more new players now than in cata because once you hit cata with an alt it seems like you have to explain every boss's strategy in regular dungeons in every dungeon run because pre-cata its pretty much a tank and spank and mechanics didnt matter.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Blackmist View Post
    They are but they don't tell the full story.

    T13 was "current content" for close to a year. It finished up being nerfed to bones. Anyone who had 10 players, no matter what their skill level was taking down Morchok.

    T14 is a fair step up from that, and during T13, many poor guilds became LFR casual guilds. They still "raid" together, but their aims are to do LFR every week, rather than kill maybe one or two bosses late in a raid cycle. They don't raid any more. They still play, but the "easy content" they craved has been moved out of the WowProgress figures.

    T15 hasn't been out long at all. It will go up from that figure, probably to around 35k. LFR will eliminate yet more guilds between T14 and T15. There's only so much failure a person will take before admitting defeat and doing LFR only.

    Raiding is slowly falling back to the more hardcore players. The extreme casuals are learning that their place is LFR.
    Easy to test that theory with the wayback machine.

    MSV opened 10/2/12 so 6.5 mos
    DS opened 11/29/11 so 6.5 mos would put it at ~6/15/2012
    http://web.archive.org/web/201206150...wprogress.com/

    MSV at 6.5 mos - 44111 guilds worldwide
    DS at 6.5 mos - 60840 guilds worldwide
    Did you think we had forgotten? Did you think we had forgiven?

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Raugnaut View Post
    with the exception of Jin'rokh (Who has a 100%[?] success rate on downing him, according to WoWprogress)
    100% success rate because he's the first boss. Stone Guard has a 100% success rate as well.

    You don't show up as a guild until you get a boss down. If 100,000 guilds attempt Jin'Rokh and 50,000 kill him, then 25,000 kill Horridon, that will show up on Wowprogress as:

    Jin'Rokh: 50,000 (100%)
    Horridon: 25,000 (50%).

    The 50,000 who failed to get a kill don't show up at all. Trying a boss doesn't count.

  14. #14
    I am Murloc! Alenarien's Avatar
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    Personally I think raiding started becoming less popular when they removed the one-difficulty-for-all aspect. One can only have so much fun clearing Normal and then having to do the same raid all over again on Heroic; never mind raid finder etc.
    In keeping silent about evil, in burying it so deep within us that no sign of it appears on the surface, we are implanting it, and it will rise up a thousand fold in the future. When we neither punish nor reproach evildoers, we are not simply protecting their trivial old age, we are thereby ripping the foundations of justice from beneath new generations.” - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918-1956

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Blackmist View Post
    They are but they don't tell the full story.

    T13 was "current content" for close to a year. It finished up being nerfed to bones. Anyone who had 10 players, no matter what their skill level was taking down Morchok.

    T14 is a fair step up from that, and during T13, many poor guilds became LFR casual guilds. They still "raid" together, but their aims are to do LFR every week, rather than kill maybe one or two bosses late in a raid cycle. They don't raid any more. They still play, but the "easy content" they craved has been moved out of the WowProgress figures.

    T15 hasn't been out long at all. It will go up from that figure, probably to around 35k. LFR will eliminate yet more guilds between T14 and T15. There's only so much failure a person will take before admitting defeat and doing LFR only.

    Raiding is slowly falling back to the more hardcore players. The extreme casuals are learning that their place is LFR.
    T15 has been out for 46 days and currently 21957 guilds have killed the first boss contrast this to T14 which 44 days after release on 08/11/12 26850 guilds had killed the first boss. Not only was the Stone Guards harder than Jin'rokh but players had to reach level 90 in order to raid at the beginning of MOP if you look at Horridon which is comparable difficulty the figures are even worse with only 15250 guilds beating him compared to 23125 killing Feng. Feel free to check for yourself: http://web.archive.org/web/201211081...wprogress.com/

    But there is no getting away from the fact that raiding participation is falling.
    Last edited by Pann; 2013-04-20 at 06:41 PM.

  16. #16
    Over 9000! Glorious Leader's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    T15 has been out for 46 days and currently 21957 guilds has killed the first boss contrast this to T14 which 44 days after release on 08/11/12 26850 guilds had killed the first boss. Not only was the Stone Guards harder than Jin'rokh but players had to reach level 90 in order to raid at the beginning of MOP if you look at Horridon which is comparable difficulty the figures are even worse with only 15250 guilds beating him compared to 23125 killing Feng. Feel free to check for yourself: http://web.archive.org/web/201211081...wprogress.com/

    But there is no getting away from the fact that raiding participation is falling.
    Normal raid participation is falling. I'm sure LFR is through the fucking roof. The "middle class" of raiding however just got sucked into lfr because all other forms of raiding are to hardcore (in terms of commitment and in terms of difficulty) and don't include them. It's not sustainable in the long term.
    The hammer comes down:
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Normal should be reduced in difficulty. Heroic should be reduced in difficulty.
    And the tiny fraction for whom heroic raids are currently well tuned? Too bad,so sad! With the arterial bleed of subs the fastest it's ever been, the vanity development that gives you guys your own content is no longer supportable.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Galaddriel View Post
    Indeed they are. Taken directly from WoWprogress.
    http://www.wowprogress.com/

    The US is looking particularly dire.
    T13 25120
    T14 16999
    T15 8583
    Those are guilds and you are seeing more and more guilds merge or create super guilds like Convert to Raid and when they do that it greatly alters those numbers. That doesn't factor in the amount of toons or accounts raiding. While I am sure the numbers are down partially due to subs, LFR and things like craptastic HoF burning ppl out I really doubt raiding has fallen off by 66%

    ---------- Post added 2013-04-20 at 11:45 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Glorious Leader View Post
    Normal raid participation is falling. I'm sure LFR is through the fucking roof. The "middle class" of raiding however just got sucked into lfr because all other forms of raiding are to hardcore (in terms of commitment and in terms of difficulty) and don't include them. It's not sustainable in the long term.
    This could and most likely is a precursor to LFR being a short term boon to raiding and a long term toxin.
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  18. #18
    Over 9000! Glorious Leader's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tyrven View Post



    This could and most likely is a precursor to LFR being a short term boon to raiding and a long term toxin.
    LFR isn't the problem. The barriers to entry that the developers have put up this expansion are. No quick catch up and shitty tuning on normal raids PUSH players to lfr. You want to make normal raids more attractive take away the barriers. Then pugs and guilds will run them. Because they can. They don't run them now because they can't for whatever reason. LFR removes several significant barriers to entry (difficulty, time commitment, gear requirement) and that's why people run LFR.
    Last edited by Glorious Leader; 2013-04-20 at 07:30 PM.
    The hammer comes down:
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Normal should be reduced in difficulty. Heroic should be reduced in difficulty.
    And the tiny fraction for whom heroic raids are currently well tuned? Too bad,so sad! With the arterial bleed of subs the fastest it's ever been, the vanity development that gives you guys your own content is no longer supportable.

  19. #19
    Scarab Lord ringpriest's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tyrven View Post
    This could and most likely is a precursor to LFR being a short term boon to raiding and a long term toxin.
    You could describe most of the changes made to WoW after Ghostcrawler became lead developer the same way.

    (I'm using GC as a convenient reference point in time because I'm too lazy to dig through wowpedia's patch list right now. While he does bear some responsibility for the changes made in the game since early Wrath, I don't think he's anywhere near being the sole cause of WoW's long, slow decline in quality.)

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Alenarien View Post
    Personally I think raiding started becoming less popular when they removed the one-difficulty-for-all aspect. One can only have so much fun clearing Normal and then having to do the same raid all over again on Heroic; never mind raid finder etc.
    A million times this.

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