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  1. #41
    Epic! Detheavn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by crakerjack View Post
    you couldn't go straight from kara into BT or sunwell... or even SSC..
    Actually, you could. All you needed was a guild who actually knew what they were doing and they could basically boost 5 - 7 people per run.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by papaz View Post
    Subs will go down. WoW has changed too much and it's not the same game at all that was launched years and years ago.

    Catering to everyone like Blizzard has done is not a good idea at all and I expect yet again we will see a sub drop, rightfully so. World of queue craft which the game has become has runied the social experience.

    It's time to release Titan information and let WoW go.
    WoW is extremely profitable, it has bee long before subs were this high and it will be for years to come even if Titan comes out. It'd be a pretty dumb decision just to cut off such an extreme money maker just to release a new MMO when they can make money off two successful MMOs.

  3. #43
    Over 9000! Arbs's Avatar
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    Oh man here we go, Destil, MMOtotal & Pebrocks I will supply the popcorn & lawn chairs. You guys bring the blankets, drinks & sunglasses.
    People that lurk in the shadows are coming out & running a muck already.

    ---------- Post added 2013-04-25 at 02:54 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Fagatronics View Post
    Haha, right? I actually expect sub numbers to stay level or go up since 5.2 launched in March. Anyone who re-subbed or stayed subbed through March 31st will be counted.
    Ya thats what I was thinking, if anyone resubbed at the beginning of march there currently still subbed on the Quarterly release.

    ---------- Post added 2013-04-25 at 03:01 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Airwaves View Post
    The Doomsayers will flock to it. Then if subs are down they will be calling it the death of wow. If the subs are up they all go conspiracy keanu and say blizz is cheating the number some how. Goes the same every quarter.
    Bascially thatd what it is always, regardless of outcome.

    ---------- Post added 2013-04-25 at 03:02 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Gimlix View Post
    I expect it to be the same or even a little higher.
    I know it's a little much but EU WoW has gone from 2 FULL/locked servers to 10 since 5.2 and that has been for 3/4 weeks now.
    Is US Doing that good too?
    Also all Queue times are way faster since 5.2 like LFR from 30 mins to 10/15mins.
    Scenarios instant Que
    And BG's a few secs.
    I have noticed servers dying & other servers growing in the US.

    ---------- Post added 2013-04-25 at 03:13 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by spectrefax View Post
    I don't know. I've never seen so many people quit in such a short period as I have on my server. Just tons and tons of long time players/guilds just dropping left and right. I can only imagine how it is on lower pop servers. There seems to be sooooo many more "my realm is dead!" posts than one would expect this early into a solid xpac. I think people are just sick of the game and the direction WoW is going with the queuecraft style of gameplay.

    I'll be really surprised if they don't post a 1mil+ sub loss. Even if they do post a slight loss, I'd hazard to guess it's buffered by the korean market or any overseas promotions they may be doing. I suspect the NA market has seen some massive sub losses. Unfortunately, I really don't think it will be long before the NA sub numbers are below 1 million.
    They coudl have moved to another server with friends & for the better of there guild or they have played for 8 years and tired of the game.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zaeed Massani View Post
    If numbers go down: "WoW is dying abandon ship!!!11one!"

    If numbers stay the same or go up: "Zomg, Blizzard is padding the numbers!"
    Zaeed my good friend don't forget to join my Quarterly Report Hangout, we got everything from popcorn to lawnchairs & sunglasses, while we watch the chaos begin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dezarus View Post
    why keep your sub up when you're not playing?
    Why do we need to play 24/7 ??
    Last edited by Arbs; 2013-04-25 at 07:25 AM.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Awe View Post
    While we wear that tinfoil hat it is also worth mentionting that 5.2 was probably delayed (becouse it was delayed) so that all the people who came back to test it but then left again becouse it wasnt good enough for them, will still be counted in the Q1 summary as subscribers. Blizzard will do anything to make those numbers look as good as possible.

    ---------- Post added 2013-04-24 at 05:57 AM ----------


    Oh its BenBos again. You seem to show up with same fanatical rhetoric every time someone mentions the subs numbers. Perhaps some of the "haters" have an obsession on that subject around here. But so do you.


    That 9-12mln subs numbers still baffles me since years. I have no idea how all this adds up when all available concurency data shows WoW to be 2-3 times more popular from next in the pack title. While this is still a solid lead, it is nowhere near the "x10 times more" mantra that Blizzard seems to be advertising. It almost seems like half of all those subscribers are not playing the game at all.


    I think I remember you to once present a dumb idea that we should all play and support with our money only WoW and Blizzard becouse it is already in the 1st place and everything below 1st place does not matter so supporting any other developer is a waste of money. That was one of the dumbest things I remember reading on this forum. If my memory plays tricks on me and it was not you, my apologies. Otherwise... well...

    And how does revenue translate into quality of the product? You suggest that people cant have fun with things that cost less to produce? Does this also mean that Avatar is the best movie in the history of cinema?
    You just answered your own remark of being "baffled" how these huge numbers of subs come around.

    Blizzard alone (not activision) made more than 1.600 million dollars in 2012... Subsctract the 500 million of D3 and you have your revenue stream of WoW on a yearly basis.

    The only other MMO which publishes its money stream is Eve and that game lingers around 50 million dollars yearly.

    -

    So unless Blizzard makes this billion with illegal Columbian drug dealing ... I guess you were owned by their world wide subscriptions indeed.

    -----

    As to your last argument of "supporting" a successful company: be glad Blizzard even exists or we would play all those other "wonderful" crappy MMO's ...

    As I stated: almost all the rest of the bunch went free to p(l)ay, so the battle of the subs (and the money) is already over for years.

    Subs don't even exist anymore with all these duds people had to endure for years long hyping. So ANY number of X million subs owns 0 subs anytime.

    Last edited by BenBos; 2013-04-25 at 07:23 AM.

  5. #45
    Over 9000! Arbs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    You just answered your own remark of being "baffled" how these huge numbers of subs come around.

    Blizzard alone (not activision) made more than 1.600 million dollars in 2012... Subsctract the 500 million of D3 and you have your revenue stream of WoW on a yearly basis.

    The only other MMO which publishes its money stream is Eve and that game lingers around 50 million dollars yearly.

    -

    So unless Blizzard makes this billion with illegal Columbian drug dealing ... I guess you were owned by their world wide subscriptions indeed.

    -----

    As to your last argument of "supporting" a successful company: be glad Blizzard even exists or we would play all those other "wonderful" crappy MMO's ...

    As I stated: almost all the rest of the bunch went free to p(l)ay, so the battle of the subs (and the money) is already over for years.

    Subs don't even exist anymore with all these duds people had to endure for years long hyping. So ANY number of X million subs owns 0 subs anytime.

    This is why I leave the Quarterly stuff to BenBos, I don't know a damn thing about it or how to calculate it without getting put in the right direction.

  6. #46
    Scarab Lord Gimlix's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    You just answered your own remark of being "baffled" how these huge numbers of subs come around.

    Blizzard alone (not activision) made more than 1.600 million dollars in 2012... Subsctract the 500 million of D3 and you have your revenue stream of WoW on a yearly basis.

    The only other MMO which publishes its money stream is Eve and that game lingers around 50 million dollars yearly.

    -

    So unless Blizzard makes this billion with illegal Columbian drug dealing ... I guess you were owned by their world wide subscriptions indeed.

    -----

    As to your last argument of "supporting" a successful company: be glad Blizzard even exists or we would play all those other "wonderful" crappy MMO's ...

    As I stated: almost all the rest of the bunch went free to p(l)ay, so the battle of the subs (and the money) is already over for years.

    Subs don't even exist anymore with all these duds people had to endure for years long hyping. So ANY number of X million subs owns 0 subs anytime.

    Nice said mate!
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    no king rules forever, but WoW is a stubborn bastard.

  7. #47
    High Overlord Deshow's Avatar
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    If titan is set in the same universe and an mmorpg im all for it. But if it isnt i want it to fail badly so blizzard can start properly supporting wow again because it seems to me that they arnt using enough man power and resources for the game right now. Instead their putting it all into titan. Imo wow right now is pretty fun but if we ever want to see it re-enter a golden age titan needs to fail. That is the only solution, all this pointless bickering and complaining is for nothing. Blizzard doesnt care.

    I am calling it right now titan is going to be cod level casual and is going to attempt to cash into the casual market via gimmicks, such as mobile apps or motion control. I mean for a game with 10 million players it sure is taking a long while to upgrade the 6 year old character models.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    You just answered your own remark of being "baffled" how these huge numbers of subs come around.

    Blizzard alone (not activision) made more than 1.600 million dollars in 2012... Subsctract the 500 million of D3 and you have your revenue stream of WoW on a yearly basis.

    The only other MMO which publishes its money stream is Eve and that game lingers around 50 million dollars yearly.

    -

    So unless Blizzard makes this billion with illegal Columbian drug dealing ... I guess you were owned by their world wide subscriptions indeed.

    -----

    As to your last argument of "supporting" a successful company: be glad Blizzard even exists or we would play all those other "wonderful" crappy MMO's ...

    As I stated: almost all the rest of the bunch went free to p(l)ay, so the battle of the subs (and the money) is already over for years.

    Subs don't even exist anymore with all these duds people had to endure for years long hyping. So ANY number of X million subs owns 0 subs anytime.

    What does this have to do with topic of the thread? Your figures for D3 are complete guess work, at 12 million copies sold I would say that $500 million is an extremely conservative estimate, and you are neglecting the fact that Blizzard's earnings were boosted by MOP sales. It is worth noting that Subscription, licensing and other revenues for 2012 is $262 million down on the previous year. Despite the launch of two major titles in 2012 compared to none 2011 overall Blizzard revenue showed a $366 million like for like increase, taking your figure of $500 million for D3 this shows a decline in WOW revenue of $134 million. Whilst 2012 showed and increase on 2011 if was $47 million down on 2010 that saw the release of Cata and SC2, which sold less than half of the number copies that D3 sold.

    Whilst it is not Blizzard's fault the success of WOW has lead to a complete lack of innovation in the MMO genre as other publishers try to grab a slice of the action.

    WOW is extremely successful and will continue to be so for some time but it is losing subs and there is no sight of a turn around.

    Anyway would you like to offer an on topic reply? If so what do think the sub figures for Q1 will be and why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Archdruid Dehydrate View Post
    This is why I leave the Quarterly stuff to BenBos, I don't know a damn thing about it or how to calculate it without getting put in the right direction.
    Perhaps if you did less of the former you would know more about the latter.
    Last edited by Pann; 2013-04-25 at 11:13 AM.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Blizzard alone (not activision) made more than 1.600 million dollars in 2012... Subsctract the 500 million of D3 and you have your revenue stream of WoW on a yearly basis.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Your figures for D3 are complete guess work, at 12 million copies sold I would say that $500 million is an extremely conservative estimate, and you are neglecting the fact that Blizzard's earnings were boosted by MOP sales. It is worth noting that Subscription, licensing and other revenues for 2012 is $262 million down on the previous year. Despite the launch of two major titles in 2012 compared to none 2011 overall Blizzard revenue showed a $366 million like for like increase, taking your figure of $500 million for D3 this shows a decline in WOW revenue of $134 million. Whilst 2012 showed and increase on 2011 if was $47 million down on 2010 that saw the release of Cata and SC2, which sold less than half of the number copies that D3 sold.
    Let's stop these kinds of speculations and estimates being touted as facts. We're already speculating the potential subs gain/loss/stability and adding Blizzards theoretical financial situation to the mix only causes more confusion and arguments. If you want to talk about potential money gained/lost this quarter by Blizz, that's fine. But breaking down what Blizz made last year without a source and going by just what you think needs to stop.

    Quote Originally Posted by Detheavn View Post
    Actually, you could. All you needed was a guild who actually knew what they were doing and they could basically boost 5 - 7 people per run.
    While I agree you could probably get by with running a few under geared people through BT, I definitely don't think you could have done it with Sunwell.
    Quote Originally Posted by Boubouille View Post
    You're full of shit honey.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghostcrawler
    You should have no expectations for the next expansion IMO...

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Fagatronics View Post
    Let's stop these kinds of speculations and estimates being touted as facts. We're already speculating the potential subs gain/loss/stability and adding Blizzards theoretical financial situation to the mix only causes more confusion and arguments. If you want to talk about potential money gained/lost this quarter by Blizz, that's fine. But breaking down what Blizz made last year without a source and going by just what you think needs to stop.
    They are facts released from Blizzard that are readily available on the Activision Blizzard website for anyone that wants to look at them. Well all apart from the $500 million income from D3 which is BenBos' estimate.
    Last edited by Pann; 2013-04-25 at 04:02 PM.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by PrairieChicken View Post
    I expect -1mil west -3mil east
    Yeah we lost 4 mil.... you know what no i bet we lost 9mil, the games dead.

    /s
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  12. #52
    Elemental Lord Chickat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    As I predicted last time - I'm 100% certain numbers definitely didn't go up 1st quarter either. If they did, Blizz would've announced their sub numbers RIGHT AWAY like they did 1 week after Pandaria came out and the quarter ended and they got the small boost up to, i believe, 10.6 mil or whatever it was.

    Having said that, it only means that subs have stayed the same or have gone down. I would suspect they went down simply another 300-500k as it did last quarter. There's been nothing major released during this time to give it a Diablo-style mass exodus like the 1 mill lost quarter did last time - so there's no reason to expect any massive leaps off the ship this go around either.
    They only announce sub numbers at the start of an expansion if they go up. They dont publicly announce sub numbers like that every quarter even if they do go up.
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  13. #53
    What is the current sub number? 9.5 million? I'd expect a 300 - 600k drop, more people are getting bored of MoP and go to other games relative quick. 5.2 might help keeping some subs, but there will always be more people leaving than staying/joining at this point.

    Its no point to say that the subs will INCREASE, it never happened outside of when the expansion was released.

  14. #54
    Super Moderator Darsithis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dezarus View Post
    why keep your sub up when you're not playing?
    Why go through the hassle of canceling it if I know I'll eventually come back?



  15. #55
    Moderator MoanaLisa's Avatar
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    Subs probably down a bit. I have no idea if it will be a big bit or a small bit and at this point have decided I don't much care about it. The pattern that I suspect is emerging is that subs go up by some amount at the start of an expansion and then gradually decrease over the life of the expansion. It's likely to be a very long, slow and gradual slope and it's mostly due to a lack of new players entering an eight-year-old game that costs $15/month (roughly if you're in the U.S. or Europe) while more people are leaving that eight-year-old game that costs $15/month. I'm not sure that I believe there's much to be done about that.

    F2P alternatives have something to do with it as well as the gaming world has clearly moved on from MMO's generally. Blizzard's strategy to keep the numbers up by releasing more content faster is a good one from a business perspective and long overdue. However, I don't think it's a viable strategy for bringing in new players although it's a good thing for maintaining the player base you already have and to a lesser extent bring back older players who have moved on. Many of those will be gone for good but some may drop in for a bit to have a look and stay for the duration. That's something we'll never know but is a possibility.

    In any case, it's clear that we'll have this thread yet again in August and that's really all that matters.
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  16. #56
    I would guess subs down marginally, maybe by 200K. The 1M figure is much too large, in my opinion.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
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  17. #57
    Dreadlord vmagik's Avatar
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    I love WoW...

    But seriously this whole "subs will go down, zomg" chatter is slightly silly... Of course subs will go down, the game's 8+ years old and still competing(read: smashing into the ground) pretty much every other MMO out there.

    Unfortunately subs will dwindle over time, especially until the next expansion - it's by no means a coffin nail.
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  18. #58
    My guess: 8.8 million. A loss, but nothing major.

    Then again, I've seen ~10 friends join/rejoin in the last two months, so who knows. Maybe it's less of a loss.

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  19. #59
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    I predict that I won't care either way. I also predict that I'll be rolling my eyes again at the silly people who start screaming "WOW IS DEAD" or "BLIZZARD IS LYING ABOUT THE NUMBERS".

    People don't care for games that need dedication as much any more. You could argue that WoW doesn't require dedication, but I'd say that's purely down to the fact that you've been playing for a long time, and it's gradually required less and less time. To someone who's never played it, it actually requires a significant level of dedication and time compared to other games. Let me compare BF3 and SC2 vs WoW and for the sake of simplicity, let's say non-competitive multiplayer on all 3 games. BF3, I can jump into a game at any time of day, and leave when I want. SC2, same again except there's no perks for levelling (none that give you a gameplay advantage) - I can jump into any game and play whenever I want. I don't have to level characters to play.

    Sure, with BF3, you unlock 'better' guns and such as you level, but you start with a gun already. WoW, I'd have to level a character from 1-90, then go through dungeons to get geared for raids or go through PVP to get geared to PVP (derp?), and then it's all about chasing better gear. It's a lot more work to get to the area that's generally viewed to be the focus of the game.

    Personally, I used to love the intensity of it all, but after 5-6 years, it wore off and I just don't care for it. I'd rather play games where I can jump in straight away.

    What they did with 5.2 was good, but I don't predict a subs change because of it. I'm minus 1 in the total subs number right now, but I've no doubt there'll have been some +1's to make up for those that unsubbed. I unsubbed as I realized I was chasing a legendary I didn't even know anything about, but was still only in the first real phase (6K JP) when 5.2 hit. I'd still got to kill the 'KW boss', and then go about collecting the next parts. There was nothing else in the game for me to focus on. Too grindy for my liking, and no desire to focus on raiding with a guild because hey, LFR is there for any time of day.

    Quote Originally Posted by Detheavn View Post
    Actually, you could. All you needed was a guild who actually knew what they were doing and they could basically boost 5 - 7 people per run.
    I don't think he was talking about individuals. We all know you could boost people in BT and Hyjal if you had 15 who were focused. Hell, got a pally tank or 2, and Hyjal was super easy (not that the trash was difficult, but we all remember how much easier it was with a prot paladin). You couldn't take 25 Kara geared players into BT and expect them to succeed on anything past Akama (even Supremus would be difficult due to the lower HP of Kara geared tanks vs those in BT gear - 10k vs 18k). You also have to consider the 9K HP 'requirement' for everyone to be considered for the first boss of BT (the bubble burst used to kill one of our low HP mages every single week without fail).

    Sunwell, you wouldn't take people geared in anything below T6. Kalecgos, sure, you might be able to pass that with T5-T6 mix but certainly not Kara gear. Brutallus would destroy groups geared in anything less than T6 (it regularly destroyed those geared in T6).

    So, yeah, you could take individuals or small groups of Kara geared players into T6 content, but you wouldn't be taking a full group to it.
    [...]

  20. #60
    So it's this kind of thread again? I've never seen anything good coming from them. Most don't understand. Some don't want to. All can be just read up once it has been released.
    Most of the things posted in these kind of threads is either amateurish opinions presented as facts from either side or just strawman and fallacies to protect their idea.
    And in the end they always kind of get derailed by quite the aggressive and personal attacks of some white knights pushing for locks on this kind of topic if the results are not that rosy.

    I'd poker for another "but most losses are from the East" or "stable subscriptions" with a brief comment during the call explaining East has peaked again, subsequently admitting further losses elsewhere. And we know where that elsewhere is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Awe View Post
    That 9-12mln subs numbers still baffles me since years. I have no idea how all this adds up when all available concurency data shows WoW to be 2-3 times more popular from next in the pack title. While this is still a solid lead, it is nowhere near the "x10 times more" mantra that Blizzard seems to be advertising. It almost seems like half of all those subscribers are not playing the game at all.
    The concurrency data you have seen mostly reflects just the situation on Western server.
    The mentioned subscription are from all around the world no matter the payment model.
    It makes sense for them not to match up.
    Last edited by Conscience; 2013-04-25 at 05:59 PM.
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