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  1. #301
    Over 9000! Glorious Leader's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iggie View Post
    Music is corny, and I don't see any of the zones as reflecting China, for example. I use an English client on CN realms and the names of characters/zones I see are quite silly. Guo lai ruins? That means "come here" in Chinese. I'm sure there's more specific reasons, and I can ask my guild on our next raid.

    Also the majority of Chinese subs (if you can even call them that, pay as you go) play from internet cafes. As they grow up and leave college their play time is pretty much gone. Chinese graduates have a damn hard time finding work. So you may see WoW's poor job at drawing new subs in Asia as a factor in overall sub loss.
    lol come here ruins! that's pretty good. I wonder if anybody knew over at blizzard. I have to imagine somebody told them at some point. Yea i'd be curious what the rest of your guild thinks about this. I figured the chinese market would eat this up but I guess it really is just westernized BS.
    The hammer comes down:
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Normal should be reduced in difficulty. Heroic should be reduced in difficulty.
    And the tiny fraction for whom heroic raids are currently well tuned? Too bad,so sad! With the arterial bleed of subs the fastest it's ever been, the vanity development that gives you guys your own content is no longer supportable.

  2. #302
    Quote Originally Posted by Malcor View Post
    not only are they so alike they predicted the exact same number. If you fight them on it they bring up how "BLIZZARD IS INCOMPETENT YOU FOOLS, LOOK AT CATACLYSM"

    So yeah
    Ummm... no I don't. Did you not log into MMO-Champ within the last 2 years? :P

    Care to find a post of mine in the past 3 months where I say "BLIZZARD IS INCOMPETENT YOU FOOLS!"? In fact, I've been VERY positive about MoP features - save for the CRZ on my PVE server, which is pissing me off as I REALLY want to play MoP, but refuse to do so as long as CRZ remains (or no alternative option is given) on my PVE sever.
    "Tell them only that the Lich King is dead... and that World of Warcraft... died with him..."

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    That's the ONLY reason you would post 9600 posts over 3 years: a mission of hate.

  3. #303
    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    Ummm... no I don't. Did you not log into MMO-Champ within the last 2 years? :P

    Care to find a post of mine in the past 3 months where I say "BLIZZARD IS INCOMPETENT YOU FOOLS!"? In fact, I've been VERY positive about MoP features - save for the CRZ on my PVE server, which is pissing me off as I REALLY want to play MoP, but refuse to do so as long as CRZ remains (or no alternative option is given) on my PVE sever.
    Odd... You already stated you didn't play MoP, but the CRZ is pissing you off.

    No experience is hearsay, as always with these wise guys.

    Also the in game content is secundary to the state of the OVERALL industry when subscriptions are discussed.

    Situation 2010: WoW 11.5 million subs in a world of 16 million subscription based mmo's...
    Situation 2013: WoW 9 million subs in a world with 11 million subscription based mmo's...

    So you are wrong by looking only to WoW subs: the complete SUBSCRIPTION BASED MMO's went down due to free to play on line games. Most subscription based games simply went free to play (mostly to survive).

    And certainly one CRZ zone here and there doesn't mean much in the GREATER things of this industry.

    And as stated before: this is about Q financial calls: those are not only related to some subs in WoW, but to the general health of the company and its sister company. Hearthstone is such an example of a future project, as is the launch of D3 on console couch play or Blizzard's all stars.

    People who think that discussing Fin Quater results is only about 200k subs less or more are really still living in the years that passed: there is hardly a subscription based mmo industry left .... outside of WoW and EvE.
    Last edited by BenBos; 2013-05-04 at 07:30 AM.

  4. #304
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Odd... You already stated you didn't play MoP, but the CRZ is pissing you off.

    No experience is hearsay, as always with these wise guys.

    Also the in game content is secundary to the state of the OVERALL industry when subscriptions are discussed.

    Situation 2010: WoW 11.5 million subs in a world of 16 million subscription based mmo's...
    Situation 2013: WoW 9 million subs in a world with 11 million subscription based mmo's...

    So you are wrong by looking only to WoW subs: the complete SUBSCRIPTION BASED MMO's went down due to free to play on line games. Most subscription based games simply went free to play (mostly to survive).

    And certainly one CRZ zone here and there doesn't mean much in the GREATER things of this industry.

    And as stated before: this is about Q financial calls: those are not only related to some subs in WoW, but to the general health of the company and its sister company. Hearthstone is such an example of a future project, as is the launch of D3 on console couch play or Blizzard's all stars.

    People who think that discussing Fin Quater results is only about 200k subs less or more are really still living in the years that passed: there is hardly a subscription based mmo industry left .... outside of WoW and EvE.
    Just because he isn't playing WoW atm doesn't mean he hasn't got any experience of said issue. Jump to conclusions without reading properly , as always with these wise guys.

  5. #305
    Quote Originally Posted by Glorious Leader View Post
    lol come here ruins! that's pretty good. I wonder if anybody knew over at blizzard. I have to imagine somebody told them at some point. Yea i'd be curious what the rest of your guild thinks about this. I figured the chinese market would eat this up but I guess it really is just westernized BS.
    Well, before I moved to China I liked Chinese food. Then I realized it wasn't really Chinese food. I had some Chinese food on my last trip to Canada, and I threw up.

    Even KFC here, it's completely a Chinese version of KFC. You can't get a chicken burger most KFC's anymore. Straight bucket of chicken? Nope!


    MOP is most likely similar. Westernized "asian" theme, which has little to no impact on the asian market.

  6. #306
    Quote Originally Posted by Glorious Leader View Post
    lol come here ruins! that's pretty good. I wonder if anybody knew over at blizzard. I have to imagine somebody told them at some point. Yea i'd be curious what the rest of your guild thinks about this. I figured the chinese market would eat this up but I guess it really is just westernized BS.
    Chinese female online gamer prefer cute and childish games. WoW and Diablo 3 where not all that popular with female Chinese player and they miss on millions of potential player. The panda theme might have been aimed at this group. It wasn't all the ineffective, they made new record with 1 million peak online when Mist released, but even if its cuter its just weird with nonsense pseudo Chinese names and geographically wrong architecture and art mixed into the pseudo Chinese theme, and WoW could still not make it over third place of Chinese time-based MMORPG (Chinese version of subscription) and lags behind FWJII Online and very childish style FWJ which peaked at 1.3 and 2.7 million online player last year.

    You could see the result equivalent to oversized swords and bikini plate armour in western style fantasy MMO made in China. Like everything seems ok but then something completely ridiculous is turning you off again.
    Last edited by Conscience; 2013-05-04 at 01:08 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xarishflar
    we ran into a few other issues

  7. #307
    A slight drop, but then again who really cares if you're having fun?
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  8. #308
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    The game is in a good place I think, and from the rumors I've heard, a lot of subs will be lost in Asian countries. I would say 100k-200k tops, or slightly more than that.
    Last edited by Ceece; 2013-05-04 at 01:10 PM.

  9. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    People who think that discussing Fin Quater results is only about 200k subs less or more are really still living in the years that passed: there is hardly a subscription based mmo industry left .... outside of WoW and EvE.
    Wise words.

    Discussing Wow subs on Wow forums will always get a very narrow response from the Wow players... they live in a bubble and r very blinkered to the overall gaming world. Ur right to say that the paid subs industry is on the decline massively across the gaming industry, its pretty much only Wow thats managing to grab money out of gamers pockets every month these days. All of the other games have seen that the future is different and are adjusting thier financial models accordingly.

  10. #310
    Stood in the Fire gurv's Avatar
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    IMO WoW has entered its EOL stage, so subs won't go back up significantly anymore.
    I'd say it'll drop by 200k/400k per quarter unless activision-blizzard makes a mistake or a new competitor has a significant success (eg Neverwinter, Teso, ...)
    The biggest drop should obviously happen around Titan's release maybe in 2-3 years at which point I'd be surprised if WoW had more then 1.5-2 millions subs left.

  11. #311
    Quote Originally Posted by gurv View Post
    IMO WoW has entered its EOL stage, so subs won't go back up significantly anymore.
    I'd say it'll drop by 200k/400k per quarter unless activision-blizzard makes a mistake or a new competitor has a significant success (eg Neverwinter, Teso, ...)
    The biggest drop should obviously happen around Titan's release maybe in 2-3 years at which point I'd be surprised if WoW had more then 1.5-2 millions subs left.
    Again a very traditional answer and analysis in an industry that is no longer subscription based but free to p(l)ay.

    New competitor? In the subscription based industry? Wow .... that would be the first one in ... 7 years.

    Also Blizzard has so many cards up its sleeves...

    Some examples: combo subs for Titan and WoW, WoW turning to free to play, FreeTitan for those subscribing to annual WoW, get a Titan sub and have WoW for free ... Etc...

    Even in 2013 you can already predict combos : gain HS cards by having a WoW sub, buy HS packages and get a month free subs...

    So many possibilities, I know all terribly painful for the WoW haters, but let's face it: blizzard has dozens of these in the pipeline.

  12. #312
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Again a very traditional answer and analysis in an industry that is no longer subscription based but free to p(l)ay.
    It would be interesting to compare the $$$ flow to WoW, vs. the $$$ flow to F2P games. I suspect you will find the industry is not, in actuality, F2P, if you look at that by where the money is coming from.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
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  13. #313
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    It would be interesting to compare the $$$ flow to WoW, vs. the $$$ flow to F2P games. I suspect you will find the industry is not, in actuality, F2P, if you look at that by where the money is coming from.
    The standard these days is free to p(l)ay. Very simple. MOST tried subscription based mmo's, but ALL went free to play as their player base melted faster than snow on a hot summer's day.

    Of course people still discuss WoW subs in the same way over these 7 years, but they forget that the subscription based model failed to deliver, execept for very few. So the industry in which these paid subs need to be gathered ... Changed.

    As such the fight for WoW subscriptions has to be seen in a new mmo industry. And that's why I stated that total revenue of a company is the best indicator for the health of a company.

    Not some subs going down or up as there are many more ways these days used to gather money.

    Of course Blizzard will always have the advantage to adapt or set another pace: like stated above, by including deals.

    But the core of the discussion is ... The battle for subscriptions is already over a long time ago, since Blizzard won that battle to the money pit.

    Now they just will make sure WoW will be kept played by millions by adapting small changes to the subscriptions (combo deals).

  14. #314
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    The standard these days is free to p(l)ay. Very simple. MOST tried subscription based mmo's, but ALL went free to play as their player base melted faster than snow on a hot summer's day.
    But that's just a reflection of the situation where (1) MMOs have large sunk costs, but low operating costs, and (2) most MMOs fail.

    In that situation, the failures go F2P. As long as they are bringing in enough revenue to cover operating costs, they aren't shut down. They can persist in a zombie-like state of years.

    This is why I suggest you look at money, not "subs".
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler
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  15. #315
    Moderator MoanaLisa's Avatar
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    F2P as a revenue model is interesting. I don't think it will ever really be the financial engine that creates the sort of juggernaut game that World of Warcraft has been. For one thing it's easy to feel less invested in F2P games (largely because you are less invested) and quite easy to drop them for months at a time. Same goes for B2P. The reality is that there's nothing about World of Warcraft as a business model that is helpful for a game design studio looking to do an MMO.

    It's just more evidence that Blizzard was in the right place with the right game at the right time in 2005 and that World of Warcraft is an outlier that is a terrible example from a business perspective if you're looking to emulate success. It's unique in that sense and attempts to define rules for how it works as a business are fruitless. Given the history of nearly every attempt to copy its success it shouldn't work.

    And that in a nutshell is why I think threads like this, while always fascinating and one of my favorite subjects to discuss, never really get to the essence of the thing.

    EDIT: Just to reiterate and give a nod to the topic subs are likely to be down a bit now and probably for the next several years. There will likely be little bumps up now and then, particularly when a new expansion launches but overall a long-term graph will show a downward trend. BenBos has it right about the subscription MMO market shrinking. It doesn't really much matter what Blizzard does at this point. New players aren't overly interested in paying a flat rate fee/month to play an eight-year-old game and the age of the game will dictate that people will leave over time. So it's on a glide path. Blizzard can extend that glide path greatly by continuing to invest in designing new content for the game but I'm of the opinion that future growth simply based on that is unlikely. That makes Blizzard's revenue and financial plans for Titan all the more interesting.
    Last edited by MoanaLisa; 2013-05-04 at 04:38 PM.
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  16. #316
    The Insane det's Avatar
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    Didn't somebody post already his findings that there is a slight loss? Or is that conference actually the first time that everybody gets to know the numbers?

    Anyways...my predictions are that the game will constantly but surely keep losing subs in small numbers - not because of the quality (I think in MoP Blizzard is really pushing themselves with quality content), but because people eventually just go looking for something fresh.
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  17. #317
    Moderator MoanaLisa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by det View Post
    Didn't somebody post already his findings that there is a slight loss? Or is that conference actually the first time that everybody gets to know the numbers?
    The conference call is the only reliable way to know what's really going on worldwide. There are other ways to sort of detect trends but they are unreliable at best and totally misleading at worst. I've seen attempts to predict numbers using wowprogress but that only counts raiders so is 100% useless at saying anything about the general population at large. There's not really anything very helpful to figure it out on a worldwide basis.
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  18. #318
    Quote Originally Posted by det View Post
    Didn't somebody post already his findings that there is a slight loss? Or is that conference actually the first time that everybody gets to know the numbers?

    Anyways...my predictions are that the game will constantly but surely keep losing subs in small numbers - not because of the quality (I think in MoP Blizzard is really pushing themselves with quality content), but because people eventually just go looking for something fresh.
    The earnings call is always the first time they announce the sub numbers. I can't see any other reason than a massive gain for them to mention it outside of the call and I don't think that is going to happen.

    Quote Originally Posted by MoanaLisa View Post
    The conference call is the only reliable way to know what's really going on worldwide. There are other ways to sort of detect trends but they are unreliable at best and totally misleading at worst. I've seen attempts to predict numbers using wowprogress but that only counts raiders so is 100% useless at saying anything about the general population at large. There's not really anything very helpful to figure it out on a worldwide basis.
    This is not strictly true both xfire and warcraft realms activity have mirrored sub losses in the past.
    Last edited by Pann; 2013-05-04 at 04:45 PM.

  19. #319
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    The battle for subscriptions is already over a long time ago, since Blizzard won that battle to the money pit.

    Now they just will make sure WoW will be kept played by millions by adapting small changes to the subscriptions (combo deals).
    This is actually a very interesting observation, and i cant help but agree with it.

    Wow basically took the entire cake a long time ago and others havent stood a chance to have a slice since... theyve basically created their own monopoly within the subs MMO market.

    When u consider that Wow has 9.6million subscribers and ive seen reports that show there ENTIRE paid subs market is around 11-12million, u can see that there isnt much of a market in the first place. Wow is pretty much the only game using subs in the current gaming market, and as long as they can convince its players that they are happy then theyll continue to charge subs.

    I predict that we do not see any newly released MMOs charging subs in future, its simply not the way to get players into your game. Theyll think outside of the box and create a system where they make money yet dont charge monthly subs. Games like GW2 are doing fantastic and are living proof that u dont need subs to be successful in the current market.

    Quote Originally Posted by MoanaLisa View Post
    The conference call is the only reliable way to know what's really going on worldwide. There are other ways to sort of detect trends but they are unreliable at best and totally misleading at worst.
    Blizzard have NEVER released their subs figures and they will do everything they can to hide them.

    The only reason they appear within the quarterly conference call to their shareholders is because that kind of financial information must be supplied BY LAW. Although even if u read the smallprint within their own financial report is says that the 9.6million IS ESTIMATED within Blizzard. Make what u will of that fact

  20. #320
    Moderator MoanaLisa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    This is not strictly true both xfire and warcraft realms activity have mirrored sub losses in the past.
    I should have been clearer. People in the past have compared have used xfire to say that in Month 1 activity was X and in Month 3 activity was X-30%, therefore WoW has lost 30% of its subs. That's the sort of thing I was really thinking about. You can't use either of those to come to any conclusion other than probably up or probably down and even then I think it's unreliable given that if you've followed xfire for other games it clearly has some problems. Wowprogress being a measurement of raiding only has some of the same issues. It's very sketchy to try and make any reasonable judgments about what subscribers generally are doing by looking at a single niche activity.
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