View Poll Results: What are your sub predictions for Q2, 2013?

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  • Lower than 8.3m

    323 88.98%
  • Higher than 8.3m

    40 11.02%
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  1. #41
    New expansion=more subs. Expansion gets old=subs drop back off. Blue posted. Enough of these threads. Blizzards not worried.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Asuna-San View Post
    Then why do you care about what the sub numbers are? Why even create a thread on it?

    Oh wait...it's Jaylock.
    Im just curious to find out what people think will happen to the subs this quarter. What kind of drop (or gain) are you predicting?

  3. #43
    Bloodsail Admiral Yuuki Asuna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaylock View Post
    Im just curious to find out what people think will happen to the subs this quarter. What kind of drop (or gain) are you predicting?
    I know. But I just don't see why you would care so much if you quit the game and moved on?

    But for the hell of it. 300-500k loss. Maybe even a gain if 5.4 turns out great with the supposedly 'new' feature coming
    I cried alone every single night. It felt like every day that passed here stole another piece of my real life away. After i cried, I’d go and fight as hard as I could. My only thought was winning, moving forward, and getting stronger. — Asuna Yuuki

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Asuna-San View Post
    I know. But I just don't see why you would care so much if you quit the game and moved on?

    But for the hell of it. 300-500k loss. Maybe even a gain if 5.4 turns out great with the supposedly 'new' feature coming
    Well I like warcraft lore and I have had some really fun times playing the game. I just am bored of it right now. It just needs a fresh breath of air in it again.

  5. #45
    Bloodsail Admiral Yuuki Asuna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaylock View Post
    Well I like warcraft lore and I have had some really fun times playing the game. I just am bored of it right now. It just needs a fresh breath of air in it again.
    Yeah, I'm still enjoying it! The new patch is not too far a way. I just got back into the game from a break. Maybe a break will be nice for you!
    I cried alone every single night. It felt like every day that passed here stole another piece of my real life away. After i cried, I’d go and fight as hard as I could. My only thought was winning, moving forward, and getting stronger. — Asuna Yuuki

  6. #46
    Defo lower.

    Game is close to 9 years old, competition is stiffer, almost all of the competition is F2P or B2P.

  7. #47
    Bloodsail Admiral Yuuki Asuna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quilzar View Post
    Defo lower.

    Game is close to 9 years old, competition is stiffer, almost all of the competition is F2P or B2P.
    That doesn't always mean anything though. I mean Guild Wars 2 is an awesome F2P game but I see more people coming back to WoW now just because they miss the 'WoW' feeling. I almost gave up on WoW because of people and friends that left the game. But more of my guildies and RL friends are returning and it's making the game fun again! I don't care if it's getting old At least it's not abandoned!
    I cried alone every single night. It felt like every day that passed here stole another piece of my real life away. After i cried, I’d go and fight as hard as I could. My only thought was winning, moving forward, and getting stronger. — Asuna Yuuki

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Asuna-San View Post
    Yeah, I'm still enjoying it! The new patch is not too far a way. I just got back into the game from a break. Maybe a break will be nice for you!
    Yeah I am taking a break, maybe a new patch or the new expansion will bring me back to it

  9. #49
    The Lightbringer LocNess's Avatar
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    I don't think the loss will be as extreme as Q1, however I think it could lose almost up to another 1 mil. Game still has a lot of subscribers though so meh nothing too bad.

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by LocNess View Post
    I don't think the loss will be as extreme as Q1, however I think it could lose almost up to another 1 mil. Game still has a lot of subscribers though so meh nothing too bad.
    i expect the drop to be 1mil + tbh.
    Asia will prob have a smaller drop as prev. quarter.
    But this time arround i expect a large drop on the west aswell.
    Many people underestimate the dying servers and the lack of merges. WoW currently has WAAAY to many server for the activity it has.
    Quote Originally Posted by laserguns View Post
    But do they have data showing how much fun players are having? Because surely that's what counts. You could have a game where only 1% of players can do the top raid but still everybody's having fun, and you could have a game where 100% of the players see everything but they're all bored and whining and quitting. Fun can't be quantified with straight-up data, and trying to use statistics to measure fun is a dangerous logical minefield.
    "The Perfect Raid Design Drawn by me .

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    The really important question is: why does anyone care?
    It's interesting how a rhetorical question being well-answered doesn't keep people from being boring and repeating it.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  12. #52
    I have this theory that Blizzard have deliberately made a big deal of the sub loses and have made sure they get a lot of coverage for it, so that more people will start talking about the game and more ex-players will get nostalgic or miss the game and want to resub.

    As for Q2, I think 7-8M sounds like a realistic estimate.

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaylock View Post
    Yeah I quit World of Crapcraft a long time ago. I just got bored with how repetitive it is and how there is nothing to do unless you are a basement dwelling nolifer who spends hours of time in that game.

    I have since moved on to greener pastures and now I am happily playing Guildwars 2, Rift, and SWToR
    Oh look a statement by the OP of this thread talking about "Crapcraft" and promoting other games with ZERO subscriptions.

    NADA, ZERO, NOIGHT, NULL, NILL, NUL, subscriptions in these other copycats but the hate dude wants to know active paid subs in what he calls "Crapcraft"

    The OP: what a loser. Reported.

    Keep it civil please.
    Last edited by Zaelsino; 2013-05-17 at 12:58 PM.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    The really important question is: why does anyone care?
    These threads tend to be instigated by people who keep repeating that: "Blizzard has 8,5 million WoW subscribers!"

    They don't. They got approximately 3 to 3,5 million WoW subscribers... because 5 million WoW 'subscribers' belong to NetEase China of which Blizzard barely sees a penny...

    If you want to compare WoW with other MMOs then use the 3,5M number ... and realize that other games like GW2 aren't too far away from that number, that F2P games like LoL dwarf that number.

    Secondly, people keep using the number as somehow an argument of quality and activity. Well ... like others pointed out, there are perhaps 20 decently populated realms (with major faction imbalances on all of them), and tons of other realms that are basically dead ... on the brink of dead. Your chance of coming across another person while you play the game on those servers are very very low... But if you go play GW2, Rift or NWO you'll be surrounded by people and activity, looking to do group quests, dungeons etc even at low levels.

    So indeed, who the fuck gives a damn that Blizzard has 3,5M WoW subscribers when the realms and gameplay feels less MMO and less lively than other F2P games???
    Last edited by Anarch the Subduer; 2013-05-17 at 11:14 AM.
    ♦ Scepticist ♦ Critic ♦ INTJ

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    These threads tend to be instigated by people who keep repeating that: "Blizzard has 8,5 million WoW subscribers!"

    They don't. They got approximately 3 to 3,5 million WoW subscribers... because 5 million WoW 'subscribers' belong to NetEase China of which Blizzard barely sees a penny...

    If you want to compare WoW with other MMOs then use the 3,5M number ... and realize that other games like GW2 aren't too far away from that number, that F2P games like LoL dwarf that number.

    Secondly, people keep using the number as somehow an argument of quality and activity. Well ... like others pointed out, there are perhaps 20 decently populated realms (with major faction imbalances on all of them), and tons of other realms that are basically dead ... on the brink of dead. Your chance of coming across another person while you play the game on those servers are very very low... But if you go play GW2, Rift or NWO you'll be surrounded by people and activity, looking to do group quests, dungeons etc even at low levels.

    So indeed, who the fuck gives a damn that Blizzard has 3,5M WoW subscribers when the realms and gameplay feels less MMO and less lively than other F2P games???
    You lost the discussion.

    Why? Because Blizzard is a stock rated company and the first quarter published showedthe MMO part brought in ... 240 million dollars.

    So your 3 million western subs "guess" is wrong since 3 million would NEVER bring in 240 million bucks in 3 months.

    Btw: Blizzard as a stock rated company can not lie about that revenue.

    OWNED and in a Big way even.

    Get lost hater.

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    You lost the discussion.

    Why? Because Blizzard is a stock rated company and the first quarter published showedthe MMO part brought in ... 240 million dollars.
    Source?

    I didn't think so.

    And stop calling people haters, unless you want to be called a fanboy yourself.
    Last edited by Anarch the Subduer; 2013-05-17 at 11:30 AM.
    ♦ Scepticist ♦ Critic ♦ INTJ

  17. #57
    Bloodsail Admiral Sturmbringe's Avatar
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    At LEAST one million lower, down to 7.3mil.

    Even back in its heyday, some people used to quit WoW in May for the summer. This alongwith the downward spiral WoW has entered will probably fetch a substantial decrease in subs. An additional one million subs lost (about 12% of what Blizzard claim to be their cuurent sub base) is reasonable and even conservative.
    NINJA TURTLES as the next playable WoW race/class combo. WoW has got Kung Fu Pandas, Pokemon and recently even Transformers in it, so I don't see how Ninja Turtles would be any less pathetic than current "WoW" is.

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    Rubbish. Else give a source to back up your claim...

    Oh man: go to the official wbsite of the company and as a stock rated company, the documents of every quarter is free to download.

    Up and including 2012, the WoW part has always shown a +1 billion dollar revenue per year.

    These figures are AUDITED and controlled by INDEPENDANT international auditors like The Deutsche Bank etc..

    So before posting crap: inform yourself about the money stream of WoW. It really is well documented over there.

    Also interesting: the 15 dollar sub is NOT universal in the western world too as countries like Russia pay only 9 dollars per month.

    Even SUB cards do not bring in 15 dollars, as they are sold RETAIL, which means only 50% goes go Blizzard (rest is retail).

    So you were OWNED by Blizzard's own revenue reports.

    UNLESS you think Blizzard is into some illegal Columbian drug dealing: the MONEY revenue IS there to prove those 8 million subs spread.

  19. #59
    http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...%20release.pdf

    There is the source...

    Amount of income from PC Subscriptions (WoW and Call of Duty Gold Membership) in Q1 2013 was 93M ...
    (Page 11 of the report) ... let's assume that 100% of that is WoW (and ignore CoD's contribution), that is 31M per month ... which at 15dollars a month of subscription would leave us with just a bit over 2M subscribers ... but that's not true ofcourse, since many people use other payment plans (3- or 6-monthly), so with an average of 10 dollars a month that leaves us a little over 3M subscribers.

    Ergo 3M WoW subscribers is the best estimate we can have for Blizzard. (5M WoW subscribers belonging to NetEase).
    ♦ Scepticist ♦ Critic ♦ INTJ

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...%20release.pdf

    There is the source...

    Amount of income from PC Subscriptions (WoW and Call of Duty Gold Membership) in Q1 2013 was 93M ...
    (Page 11 of the report) ... let's assume that 100% of that is WoW (and ignore CoD's contribution), that is 31M per month ... which at 15dollars a month of subscription would leave us with just a bit over 2M subscribers ... but that's not true ofcourse, since many people use other payment plans (3- or 6-monthly), so with an average of 10 dollars a month that leaves us a little over 3M subscribers.

    Ergo 3M WoW subscribers is the best estimate we can have for Blizzard. (5M WoW subscribers belonging to NetEase).
    Yes, exactly!

    *Applause*

    I get so tired of people hearing saying Blizzard has 8,3 million subscribers when we know that 5M of those are chinese of which Blizzard doesn't earn much at all.

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