View Poll Results: What are your sub predictions for Q2, 2013?

Voters
363. You may not vote on this poll
  • Lower than 8.3m

    323 88.98%
  • Higher than 8.3m

    40 11.02%
Page 5 of 13 FirstFirst ...
3
4
5
6
7
... LastLast
  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    My Activision Blizzard stock is currently worth 98788 Euro

    Also the elite service CoD stopped being a paid service at the end of 2012

    And no atvi is just a small part of our portfolio. Most of it consists of packages managed by our bank. So you are way off thinking this is just a hobby of mine.

    The 275 million gaap/228 million non gaap for just this quarter shows Blzzard carries these 8.3 million subs, whether haters like that or not.



    You have almost one hundred thousand Euro worth of ATVI stock which is only a small part of your portfolio and you spend your time insulting people on a gaming forum?!

    Quote Originally Posted by meloreandor View Post
    I think lower but they will rise in Q3 or later with SoO coming out.
    The only time subs have risen in the past two and half years is when a new expansion was released they will not be back for The Emperor's New Clothes in Q3.

  2. #82
    my guess is 7.9 mil

  3. #83
    I understand that subscribers means a lot in a game, but 8.3 million subscribers should not be taken lightly. Rift had just over 5 million at its inception in 2011 and is still successful. It did no go free to play because they were losing money. I think we will see a steady drop in subs as the expansion winds down. I do however, expect an increase when the next expansion is released.

  4. #84
    Last time I said 200k-300k and it was 1.3 million.

    So I am going to say 1.5 million this time just so I won't underestimate so much.

  5. #85
    The sub figures have absolutely no impact on people playing the game.
    They dont?
    They sure seem to have effected me.
    I was on a medium pop server and we were running 25 man raids last expac, I just xfered because the guild completely dried up and there is hardly no one on the realm as a whole. There was no one to recruit when the attrition train that is ToT normals came chugging down the tracks... The realm in the last 6 months has gone from medium to new player.

    The sub numbers may not of effected you... but they sure as hell effected me.

  6. #86
    I expect about 7 million people playing, maybe less. I think the decline is only going faster.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 01:45 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by luigiramez12 View Post
    I think we will see a steady drop in subs as the expansion winds down. I do however, expect an increase when the next expansion is released.
    Only a temporary increase though, the decline will continue shortly afterwards. That's how it has been going ever since WotLK when WoW was at its peak.

  7. #87
    Around another 1 million loss at the least. 5.3 won't provide near enough content to keep players longert han a week, unless you must really love the new BG. 5.4 won't be released around that time, and 5.2 was already included in the last quarter.

  8. #88
    Blizzards not worried.
    They arent?

    Sure seems like Bobby Kotick is... you know who he is right, the COO of BLizzard?

    and subscriber declines in our World of Warcraft business all raise concerns.
    I dont know.. but it sure seems to say he is concerned... maybe concerned and worried mean two different things? Lets check!


    con·cerned
    [kuhn-surnd] Show IPA
    adjective
    1.
    interested or affected: concerned citizens.
    2.
    troubled or anxious: a concerned look.
    3.
    having a connection or involvement; participating: They arrested all those concerned in the kidnapping.


    wor·ried
    [wur-eed, wuhr-] Show IPA
    adjective
    1.
    having or characterized by worry; concerned; anxious: Their worried parents called the police.
    2.
    indicating, expressing, or attended by worry: worried looks.

    LOL they even use the exact same wording... so ya I would go out on a limb and say that they are worried...
    /derp

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...%20release.pdf

    There is the source...

    Amount of income from PC Subscriptions (WoW and Call of Duty Gold Membership) in Q1 2013 was 93M ...
    (Page 11 of the report) ... let's assume that 100% of that is WoW (and ignore CoD's contribution), that is 31M per month ... which at 15dollars a month of subscription would leave us with just a bit over 2M subscribers ... but that's not true ofcourse, since many people use other payment plans (3- or 6-monthly), so with an average of 10 dollars a month that leaves us a little over 3M subscribers.

    Ergo 3M WoW subscribers is the best estimate we can have for Blizzard. (5M WoW subscribers belonging to NetEase).
    This is wrong. The 93 million represents the NON-ONLINE (i.e. boxes over the counter) PC revenue. The 275 million is the one which includes WoW subscriptions. If you doubt it, just check first quarter 2012 PC numbers which are next to the 93 million in the same pdf: 47 million. You can't seriously think all WoW subscription revenue for january - march 2012 is a fraction of 47 million?

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by thevoicefromwithin View Post
    This is wrong. The 93 million represents the NON-ONLINE (i.e. boxes over the counter) PC revenue. The 275 million is the one which includes WoW subscriptions. If you doubt it, just check first quarter 2012 PC numbers which are next to the 93 million in the same pdf: 47 million. You can't seriously think all WoW subscription revenue for january - march 2012 is a fraction of 47 million?
    "Online Subscriptions" includes all WoW revenue, including box sales and digital downloads.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler
    I hate these casual Fridays ruining it for real Fridays.

  11. #91
    Over 9000! Snowraven's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    European Union
    Posts
    9,221
    Depends if they launch 5.3 in June or not. That's when Q2 ends. That said, by the way, when was Thunder King launched?

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    "Online Subscriptions" includes all WoW revenue, including box sales and digital downloads.
    Yay, awesome, you found a minor needpick.

    But don't be fucking dense. The main point of the discussion in a topic about WoW sub predictions obviously is, if sub revenues are listed under the 93 million column or under the 275 million column, giving us an indication where western subs might actually be. Quoted guy was off, you were off and the clapping third guy was off too. Off by a factor of three btw. That's like claiming the average american is 1 foot 10. Joker.
    Last edited by thevoicefromwithin; 2013-05-17 at 04:06 PM.

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by thevoicefromwithin View Post
    you were off
    Show me where I was off, please. Be sure it was something I actually wrote.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler
    I hate these casual Fridays ruining it for real Fridays.

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaylock View Post
    So looking ahead into the future, what do you think the sub loss (or gain) will look like after Q2 this year?

    Do you think ToT gave the game some new life to save some of the sub loss of Q1?

    Predictions everyone.
    Not sure what there is to predict here given even Blizzard said subscriptions will probably continue dropping. These threads always just seem like an excuse to bash Blizzard and Wow.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 04:48 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by torterra275 View Post
    Already, the Q1 announcement was only earlier this month? Seems like people can't stop talking about the doomsaying of WoW.
    People on these forums won't be happy until all Wow servers are shut down and Blizzard is in financial ruin. Neither of which are likely to happen anytime soon.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 04:50 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Worgoblin View Post
    I think subs will keep dropping until MoP is done and over with.
    It has nothing to do with Mop. The game is EIGHT YEARS OLD going on nine now. Come on people at some point the game was going to start losing players.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 04:54 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by spectrefax View Post
    They're going to drop another 1.5+ at minimum. Especially with Asia completely rejecting the expansion.

    WoW will barely be above 5m at the end of the year - the golden days of wow are over.
    They aren't rejecting the expansion. You do realize there are a significant number of free to play mmos in Asian markets right? They are rejecting subscription based mmos not Mop. Look I get it people hate pandas but stop twisting facts to push your inane agenda.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 04:57 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Arian21 View Post
    down to possibly near 6 millions . need I remind you of the diablo year subs offer is expiring this quarter for most of the people and ... also Rift going f2p is gonna get some subs . Dunno what else might affect wow .
    How much longer are people going to bang the annual pass drum? A majority of those ended multiple quarters ago. It isn't a factor at all not even remotely. Just to put things in perspective there were only 1.2 million subscribers with an annual pass to begin with so to claim it will have ANY impact at this point well after most of them already ended is just moronic.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:00 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by spectrefax View Post
    I like how everyone is still pushing for 200k/500k, just like they did in Q1 and I was the only one predicting 1m+ loss and even I undershot.

    If you guys think it's going to be less than 1.5m, you're crazy and grossly underestimating two things

    1) How hard WoW is crashing in eastern markets. They have zero brand loyalty to WoW like in the Americas. They could care less about ditching their characters to start a new grind on something like Wushu, which is taking eastern MMO gaming by storm.

    2) Blizzard's inability to address dying servers in NA/EU markets. Both NA and EU markets simply don't have the player bases anymore to support the 240+ servers they've had since wow's peak. People just don't give a crap to pay Blizzard $25++ to transfer their main and alts, faction change, and whatever else when there's little guarantee they'll be doing anything but LFR on the new server. Because of this, people have little problems just quitting and finding something else.

    WoW is quickly going the way of Everquest - this game is going to post record losses this year and be a background MMO in short order. Followed by F2P being released for WoW and Blizzard putting the majority of their resources into Titan.

    That's the one thing about MMO's, when they start dropping big numbers, it has a snowball effect.

    Sure, WoW will always have a cult following, much like Everquest, but the glory days are done...period.
    Remember how people made these exact same claims after the first initial big losses in Cata and then were proved wrong with multiple quarters of significantly smaller losses? Expect it to happen again.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:03 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by stumpy View Post
    A more pertinent question is, how many of you will still be hanging off of its every development a year from now?
    I'm still having fun so I will be playing for a long time to come and I don't see that changing. I never played Wow because it was popular so I don't give a fuck how many people quit the game.

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    They aren't rejecting the expansion. You do realize there are a significant number of free to play mmos in Asian markets right? They are rejecting subscription based mmos not Mop. Look I get it people hate pandas but stop twisting facts to push your inane agenda.
    Market Acceptance (from businessdictionary.com):

    Condition in which a good or service satisfies the needs of a sufficiently large number of customers to continue or increase its production or availability.

    Bolded the last part because they sure haven't been meeting that criteria in the Eastern market. Since, by the very definition, they aren't meeting market acceptance and the opposite of accept is reject, one can safely say the Eastern markets are rejecting WoW. 'nuff said.

    Go back and troll WoW General forums, kthxbai.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by ribald View Post
    I have this theory that Blizzard have deliberately made a big deal of the sub loses and have made sure they get a lot of coverage for it, so that more people will start talking about the game and more ex-players will get nostalgic or miss the game and want to resub.

    As for Q2, I think 7-8M sounds like a realistic estimate.
    Uh no. No company is going to run around bragging about how their customers are leaving in droves. Why on earth would anyone believe such a thing?

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:15 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    These threads tend to be instigated by people who keep repeating that: "Blizzard has 8,5 million WoW subscribers!"

    They don't. They got approximately 3 to 3,5 million WoW subscribers... because 5 million WoW 'subscribers' belong to NetEase China of which Blizzard barely sees a penny...

    If you want to compare WoW with other MMOs then use the 3,5M number ... and realize that other games like GW2 aren't too far away from that number, that F2P games like LoL dwarf that number.

    Secondly, people keep using the number as somehow an argument of quality and activity. Well ... like others pointed out, there are perhaps 20 decently populated realms (with major faction imbalances on all of them), and tons of other realms that are basically dead ... on the brink of dead. Your chance of coming across another person while you play the game on those servers are very very low... But if you go play GW2, Rift or NWO you'll be surrounded by people and activity, looking to do group quests, dungeons etc even at low levels.

    So indeed, who the fuck gives a damn that Blizzard has 3,5M WoW subscribers when the realms and gameplay feels less MMO and less lively than other F2P games???
    They are paying subscribers regardless of where they live, how much they pay, how they pay, why they play, how often they play, how many accounts they have and any other moronic thing you people come up with to marginalize what is actually a FACT whether you like it or not. I'm so sorry Blizzard hasn't fallen to their knees in financial ruin and groveling to you and others who seem to feel as if they are owed something for Blizzard slighting them. Get over it. Declining game or not Blizzard is making a huge profit for their shareholders and THAT is all that matters. Shareholders honest to god don't give a fuck about the internal politics between a bunch of nerds on a video game forum.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:20 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    Source?

    I didn't think so.

    And stop calling people haters, unless you want to be called a fanboy yourself.
    No source required. It is common sense. For Blizzard to make a profit with Wow it would have to come from subscribers from the West as you yourself stated Blizzard only makes pennies on the dollar from subscribers from the East. When you play fast and loose with the facts to push an agenda you tend to shoot yourself in the foot like you just did. Good job. As for you being a hater, your post history speaks for itself. Stating that Blizzard is making a profit despite subscription losses isn't fanboyism it is a fact and your claim otherwise is why people call you a hater.

  17. #97
    Legendary! True Anarch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Shadowlag Valley
    Posts
    6,957
    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    They are paying subscribers regardless of where they live, how much they pay, how they pay, why they play, how often they play, how many accounts they have and any other moronic thing you people come up with to marginalize what is actually a FACT whether you like it or not. I'm so sorry Blizzard hasn't fallen to their knees in financial ruin and groveling to you and others who seem to feel as if they are owed something for Blizzard slighting them. Get over it. Declining game or not Blizzard is making a huge profit for their shareholders and THAT is all that matters. Shareholders honest to god don't give a fuck about the internal politics between a bunch of nerds on a video game forum.
    Indeed. The shareholders won't give a fuck about the 5M Asian subscribers either (as they contribute nothing to the overall profits)... they only care about the actual profits, and WoW is just a small part of the total revenue for Activision-Blizzard.

    In conclusion, the shareholders don't really care about WoW to begin with.

    But it bears repeating, what good are 8,5M subscribers spread across the globe when almost 90% of the realms have issues being able to get 10man teams together, due to lack of realm population, to even raid the current content...

    For me Blizzard only has 3 to 4M subscribers, as I'm being generous, the 8,3M subscriber number is complete bullshit. Rift and GW2 would have close to 10M players too if they could be bothered launching in asia, so using the number of subscribers as measurement of quality is absolute croque.
    Last edited by True Anarch; 2013-05-17 at 09:26 PM.
    "Civilized men and bloody giants."

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...%20release.pdf

    There is the source...

    Amount of income from PC Subscriptions (WoW and Call of Duty Gold Membership) in Q1 2013 was 93M ...
    (Page 11 of the report) ... let's assume that 100% of that is WoW (and ignore CoD's contribution), that is 31M per month ... which at 15dollars a month of subscription would leave us with just a bit over 2M subscribers ... but that's not true ofcourse, since many people use other payment plans (3- or 6-monthly), so with an average of 10 dollars a month that leaves us a little over 3M subscribers.

    Ergo 3M WoW subscribers is the best estimate we can have for Blizzard. (5M WoW subscribers belonging to NetEase).
    Seriously what the fuck is your problem? You try to marginalize Blizzard's subscriber numbers and all you have managed to do is spotlight that Blizzard is profiting just fine even with subscriber losses despite your best efforts to obfuscate the truth. Give it up already.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:26 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Yes, exactly!

    *Applause*

    I get so tired of people hearing saying Blizzard has 8,3 million subscribers when we know that 5M of those are chinese of which Blizzard doesn't earn much at all.
    So...wait. Which is it? When it comes to subscription loss Asian players seem to matter but when it comes to how many players Wow has then Asian players magically cease to exist? You can't have it both ways. Again crap like this is why people are called haters.

  19. #99
    Legendary! True Anarch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Shadowlag Valley
    Posts
    6,957
    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    Seriously what the fuck is your problem? You try to marginalize Blizzard's subscriber numbers and all you have managed to do is spotlight that Blizzard is profiting just fine even with subscriber losses despite your best efforts to obfuscate the truth. Give it up already.
    I was using source material to calculate the number of western subscribers, as that was the point of the discussion.

    As the material points out ... there are estimatedly 3,5M subscribers in the West.
    "Civilized men and bloody giants."

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Oh look, someone is being confused by GAAP accounting again.
    Oh look someone pretending Blizzard didn't make a profit simply because someone looked at the wrong figures.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:29 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    Oh, so now you're going to count Xbox, PS3 game subscriptions and royalties as well?

    L2read indeed:
    While the exact numbers involving the profit made from Wow aren't directly itemized it is quite easy to come up with some very realistic estimates based on numbers we do know. Let's stop pretending otherwise.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:31 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    You're looking at the wrong numbers... as above two people pointed out.

    Don't call other people liars because you're dumb ...
    According to the non GAAP numbers Blizzard still made a profit. So what is your point? Oh right. You don't have one.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:34 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by A Challenger! View Post
    No, not confused, just copiously mad and refusing to see outside the play safe bubble.



    Agreed. Doesn't mean WoW is a bad game or anything, but it does mean that 8.3 million is a PR number. You'll only ever see half, if that, during your tenure as a subscriber.
    It isn't a "PR" number. It is a verifiable number that Blizzard is obligated by federal law according to SEC regulations to be provided accurately to shareholders. If they say 8.3 million then by god it is 8.3 million and not one subscriber less. It doesn't matter where they live or how much they pay, paying accounts are paying accounts. Period. End of story. If you want to get into who pays more and whether East or West contributes more to Blizzard's profit that is all fine and good but seriously just stop pretending like people magically don't exist simply because they create an inconvenient reality for you.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •