Sub predictions for Q2, 2013

[A Challenger!]

world wide subs

The point is really flying over your head, huh.

Realize that figure also includes revenue other than from subs, including value added services like realm transfer, character renaming, and race change. These are probably quite significant.

Don't forget the cash shop a sub based MMO has. That too brings in far more revenue than it should.

As always has been btw. I always won these discussions.

Holy hell. I lold so hard.

Protip: If you have to announce your "victory", all you won was a cheap gold star from the local dollar mart.

[Osmeric]

Gaap: 275 million dollars in one quarter

Non gaap: 228 million dollars in one quater.

So with 3 million "only" you'll fall short.

Realize that figure also includes revenue other than from subs, including value added services like realm transfer, character renaming, and race change. These are probably quite significant.

[Oogly]

Realize that figure also includes revenue other than from subs, including value added services like realm transfer, character renaming, and race change. These are probably quite significant.

As well as the others stated in the numbered postscript. Copied word for word below for all to see except BenBos ofc as he will never see reason other than his own lil BenBos world.

"1. Revenue from online subscriptions consists of revenue from all World of Warcraft products, including subscriptions, boxed products, expansion packs, liscensing royalties, and value-added services. It also includes revenue from Call of Duty Elite memberships."

Hell it even states it includes box sales and other services as you have correctly pointed to Osmeric. Then they even state it includes CoD in it as well. BenBos blinkered much?

[grexly75]

Yeah I quit World of Crapcraft a long time ago. I just got bored with how repetitive it is and how there is nothing to do unless you are a basement dwelling nolifer who spends hours of time in that game.

I have since moved on to greener pastures and now I am happily playing Guildwars 2, Rift, and SWToR

I have one question if you no longer play WoW why the heck do you care about how the subs are for it or do you like creating bait threads just for the heck of it.

[Austilias]

I have one question if you no longer play WoW why the heck do you care about how the subs are for it or do you like creating bait threads just for the heck of it.

Forums and echo chambers are not the same things.

[Thulvaso]

Why would you like to know what my prediction will be Jaylock ?

[melodramocracy]

Likely another 500-750k dropped.

Whatever raid boss I'm currently stuck on will be the reason that all those folks left too though, you can be certain.

[Crashdummy]

No matter how much Blizzard keeps repeating it, ToT is not as good as Ulduar and ICC and Lei Shen is not as good as Yogg, LK or Ragnaros.

Subs will go down, but not entirely, not even mainly, because of ToT. Blizzard keeps not solving their big problem, which is the lack of dungeons and the huge grind they are asking to do something in the game.

Heroic scenarios will fail as much as scenarios did, because people are not looking for a challenging version of an scenario and Blizzard keeps completely out of touch with what the players want.

If Blizzard is lucky, this expansion will end with 7 millon subs and will be remembered as the biggest failure in WoW's history.

But is more likely that the expansion will end in the 6 millon range.

[BenBos]

You insult the entire forum here by assuming anyone would believe this...

I don't think Blizzard would let 16 year olds become stockholders anyway.

My Activision Blizzard stock is currently worth 98788 Euro

Also the elite service CoD stopped being a paid service at the end of 2012

And no atvi is just a small part of our portfolio. Most of it consists of packages managed by our bank. So you are way off thinking this is just a hobby of mine.

The 275 million gaap/228 million non gaap for just this quarter shows Blzzard carries these 8.3 million subs, whether haters like that or not.

[Melorandor]

I think lower but they will rise in Q3 or later with SoO coming out.

[Crashdummy]

New expansion=more subs. Expansion gets old=subs drop back off. Blue posted. Enough of these threads. Blizzards not worried.

Dont fool yourself, they are worried, they just cant make it public.

Al this interviews from friends working in fan sites they are doing to try to make people think ToT is so good and trying to create expectations on the Barrens escalation thing (which is just lame that this is what they are using to try to keep people on) shows that they are really worried.

[Pann]

My Activision Blizzard stock is currently worth 98788 Euro

Also the elite service CoD stopped being a paid service at the end of 2012

And no atvi is just a small part of our portfolio. Most of it consists of packages managed by our bank. So you are way off thinking this is just a hobby of mine.

The 275 million gaap/228 million non gaap for just this quarter shows Blzzard carries these 8.3 million subs, whether haters like that or not.

You have almost one hundred thousand Euro worth of ATVI stock which is only a small part of your portfolio and you spend your time insulting people on a gaming forum?!

I think lower but they will rise in Q3 or later with SoO coming out.

The only time subs have risen in the past two and half years is when a new expansion was released they will not be back for The Emperor's New Clothes in Q3.

[phenox]

my guess is 7.9 mil

[luigiramez12]

I understand that subscribers means a lot in a game, but 8.3 million subscribers should not be taken lightly. Rift had just over 5 million at its inception in 2011 and is still successful. It did no go free to play because they were losing money. I think we will see a steady drop in subs as the expansion winds down. I do however, expect an increase when the next expansion is released.

[Noorri]

Last time I said 200k-300k and it was 1.3 million.

So I am going to say 1.5 million this time just so I won't underestimate so much.

[jax]

The sub figures have absolutely no impact on people playing the game.

They dont?
They sure seem to have effected me.
I was on a medium pop server and we were running 25 man raids last expac, I just xfered because the guild completely dried up and there is hardly no one on the realm as a whole. There was no one to recruit when the attrition train that is ToT normals came chugging down the tracks... The realm in the last 6 months has gone from medium to new player.

The sub numbers may not of effected you... but they sure as hell effected me.

[Deleted]

I expect about 7 million people playing, maybe less. I think the decline is only going faster.

---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 01:45 PM ----------

I think we will see a steady drop in subs as the expansion winds down. I do however, expect an increase when the next expansion is released.

Only a temporary increase though, the decline will continue shortly afterwards. That's how it has been going ever since WotLK when WoW was at its peak.

[McNeil]

Around another 1 million loss at the least. 5.3 won't provide near enough content to keep players longert han a week, unless you must really love the new BG. 5.4 won't be released around that time, and 5.2 was already included in the last quarter.

[jax]

Blizzards not worried.

They arent?

Sure seems like Bobby Kotick is... you know who he is right, the COO of BLizzard?

and subscriber declines in our World of Warcraft business all raise concerns.

I dont know.. but it sure seems to say he is concerned... maybe concerned and worried mean two different things? Lets check!


con·cerned
[kuhn-surnd] Show IPA
adjective
1.
interested or affected: concerned citizens.
2.
troubled or anxious: a concerned look.
3.
having a connection or involvement; participating: They arrested all those concerned in the kidnapping.


wor·ried
[wur-eed, wuhr-] Show IPA
adjective
1.
having or characterized by worry; concerned; anxious: Their worried parents called the police.
2.
indicating, expressing, or attended by worry: worried looks.

LOL they even use the exact same wording... so ya I would go out on a limb and say that they are worried...
/derp

[Deleted]

http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...%20release.pdf

There is the source...

Amount of income from PC Subscriptions (WoW and Call of Duty Gold Membership) in Q1 2013 was 93M ...
(Page 11 of the report) ... let's assume that 100% of that is WoW (and ignore CoD's contribution), that is 31M per month ... which at 15dollars a month of subscription would leave us with just a bit over 2M subscribers ... but that's not true ofcourse, since many people use other payment plans (3- or 6-monthly), so with an average of 10 dollars a month that leaves us a little over 3M subscribers.

Ergo 3M WoW subscribers is the best estimate we can have for Blizzard. (5M WoW subscribers belonging to NetEase).

This is wrong. The 93 million represents the NON-ONLINE (i.e. boxes over the counter) PC revenue. The 275 million is the one which includes WoW subscriptions. If you doubt it, just check first quarter 2012 PC numbers which are next to the 93 million in the same pdf: 47 million. You can't seriously think all WoW subscription revenue for january - march 2012 is a fraction of 47 million?