Poll: What are your sub predictions for Q2, 2013?

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  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by thevoicefromwithin View Post
    This is wrong. The 93 million represents the NON-ONLINE (i.e. boxes over the counter) PC revenue. The 275 million is the one which includes WoW subscriptions. If you doubt it, just check first quarter 2012 PC numbers which are next to the 93 million in the same pdf: 47 million. You can't seriously think all WoW subscription revenue for january - march 2012 is a fraction of 47 million?
    "Online Subscriptions" includes all WoW revenue, including box sales and digital downloads.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "The bit about hardcore players not always caring about the long term interests of the game is spot on." -- Ghostcrawler
    "Do you want a game with no casuals so about 500 players?"

  2. #82
    Deleted
    Depends if they launch 5.3 in June or not. That's when Q2 ends. That said, by the way, when was Thunder King launched?

  3. #83
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    "Online Subscriptions" includes all WoW revenue, including box sales and digital downloads.
    Yay, awesome, you found a minor needpick.

    But don't be fucking dense. The main point of the discussion in a topic about WoW sub predictions obviously is, if sub revenues are listed under the 93 million column or under the 275 million column, giving us an indication where western subs might actually be. Quoted guy was off, you were off and the clapping third guy was off too. Off by a factor of three btw. That's like claiming the average american is 1 foot 10. Joker.
    Last edited by mmocabce60bc47; 2013-05-17 at 04:06 PM.

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by thevoicefromwithin View Post
    you were off
    Show me where I was off, please. Be sure it was something I actually wrote.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "The bit about hardcore players not always caring about the long term interests of the game is spot on." -- Ghostcrawler
    "Do you want a game with no casuals so about 500 players?"

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by Jaylock View Post
    So looking ahead into the future, what do you think the sub loss (or gain) will look like after Q2 this year?

    Do you think ToT gave the game some new life to save some of the sub loss of Q1?

    Predictions everyone.
    Not sure what there is to predict here given even Blizzard said subscriptions will probably continue dropping. These threads always just seem like an excuse to bash Blizzard and Wow.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 04:48 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by torterra275 View Post
    Already, the Q1 announcement was only earlier this month? Seems like people can't stop talking about the doomsaying of WoW.
    People on these forums won't be happy until all Wow servers are shut down and Blizzard is in financial ruin. Neither of which are likely to happen anytime soon.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 04:50 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Worgoblin View Post
    I think subs will keep dropping until MoP is done and over with.
    It has nothing to do with Mop. The game is EIGHT YEARS OLD going on nine now. Come on people at some point the game was going to start losing players.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 04:54 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by spectrefax View Post
    They're going to drop another 1.5+ at minimum. Especially with Asia completely rejecting the expansion.

    WoW will barely be above 5m at the end of the year - the golden days of wow are over.
    They aren't rejecting the expansion. You do realize there are a significant number of free to play mmos in Asian markets right? They are rejecting subscription based mmos not Mop. Look I get it people hate pandas but stop twisting facts to push your inane agenda.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 04:57 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Arian21 View Post
    down to possibly near 6 millions . need I remind you of the diablo year subs offer is expiring this quarter for most of the people and ... also Rift going f2p is gonna get some subs . Dunno what else might affect wow .
    How much longer are people going to bang the annual pass drum? A majority of those ended multiple quarters ago. It isn't a factor at all not even remotely. Just to put things in perspective there were only 1.2 million subscribers with an annual pass to begin with so to claim it will have ANY impact at this point well after most of them already ended is just moronic.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:00 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by spectrefax View Post
    I like how everyone is still pushing for 200k/500k, just like they did in Q1 and I was the only one predicting 1m+ loss and even I undershot.

    If you guys think it's going to be less than 1.5m, you're crazy and grossly underestimating two things

    1) How hard WoW is crashing in eastern markets. They have zero brand loyalty to WoW like in the Americas. They could care less about ditching their characters to start a new grind on something like Wushu, which is taking eastern MMO gaming by storm.

    2) Blizzard's inability to address dying servers in NA/EU markets. Both NA and EU markets simply don't have the player bases anymore to support the 240+ servers they've had since wow's peak. People just don't give a crap to pay Blizzard $25++ to transfer their main and alts, faction change, and whatever else when there's little guarantee they'll be doing anything but LFR on the new server. Because of this, people have little problems just quitting and finding something else.

    WoW is quickly going the way of Everquest - this game is going to post record losses this year and be a background MMO in short order. Followed by F2P being released for WoW and Blizzard putting the majority of their resources into Titan.

    That's the one thing about MMO's, when they start dropping big numbers, it has a snowball effect.

    Sure, WoW will always have a cult following, much like Everquest, but the glory days are done...period.
    Remember how people made these exact same claims after the first initial big losses in Cata and then were proved wrong with multiple quarters of significantly smaller losses? Expect it to happen again.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:03 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by stumpy View Post
    A more pertinent question is, how many of you will still be hanging off of its every development a year from now?
    I'm still having fun so I will be playing for a long time to come and I don't see that changing. I never played Wow because it was popular so I don't give a fuck how many people quit the game.

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    They aren't rejecting the expansion. You do realize there are a significant number of free to play mmos in Asian markets right? They are rejecting subscription based mmos not Mop. Look I get it people hate pandas but stop twisting facts to push your inane agenda.
    Market Acceptance (from businessdictionary.com):

    Condition in which a good or service satisfies the needs of a sufficiently large number of customers to continue or increase its production or availability.

    Bolded the last part because they sure haven't been meeting that criteria in the Eastern market. Since, by the very definition, they aren't meeting market acceptance and the opposite of accept is reject, one can safely say the Eastern markets are rejecting WoW. 'nuff said.

    Go back and troll WoW General forums, kthxbai.

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by ribald View Post
    I have this theory that Blizzard have deliberately made a big deal of the sub loses and have made sure they get a lot of coverage for it, so that more people will start talking about the game and more ex-players will get nostalgic or miss the game and want to resub.

    As for Q2, I think 7-8M sounds like a realistic estimate.
    Uh no. No company is going to run around bragging about how their customers are leaving in droves. Why on earth would anyone believe such a thing?

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:15 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    These threads tend to be instigated by people who keep repeating that: "Blizzard has 8,5 million WoW subscribers!"

    They don't. They got approximately 3 to 3,5 million WoW subscribers... because 5 million WoW 'subscribers' belong to NetEase China of which Blizzard barely sees a penny...

    If you want to compare WoW with other MMOs then use the 3,5M number ... and realize that other games like GW2 aren't too far away from that number, that F2P games like LoL dwarf that number.

    Secondly, people keep using the number as somehow an argument of quality and activity. Well ... like others pointed out, there are perhaps 20 decently populated realms (with major faction imbalances on all of them), and tons of other realms that are basically dead ... on the brink of dead. Your chance of coming across another person while you play the game on those servers are very very low... But if you go play GW2, Rift or NWO you'll be surrounded by people and activity, looking to do group quests, dungeons etc even at low levels.

    So indeed, who the fuck gives a damn that Blizzard has 3,5M WoW subscribers when the realms and gameplay feels less MMO and less lively than other F2P games???
    They are paying subscribers regardless of where they live, how much they pay, how they pay, why they play, how often they play, how many accounts they have and any other moronic thing you people come up with to marginalize what is actually a FACT whether you like it or not. I'm so sorry Blizzard hasn't fallen to their knees in financial ruin and groveling to you and others who seem to feel as if they are owed something for Blizzard slighting them. Get over it. Declining game or not Blizzard is making a huge profit for their shareholders and THAT is all that matters. Shareholders honest to god don't give a fuck about the internal politics between a bunch of nerds on a video game forum.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:20 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    Source?

    I didn't think so.

    And stop calling people haters, unless you want to be called a fanboy yourself.
    No source required. It is common sense. For Blizzard to make a profit with Wow it would have to come from subscribers from the West as you yourself stated Blizzard only makes pennies on the dollar from subscribers from the East. When you play fast and loose with the facts to push an agenda you tend to shoot yourself in the foot like you just did. Good job. As for you being a hater, your post history speaks for itself. Stating that Blizzard is making a profit despite subscription losses isn't fanboyism it is a fact and your claim otherwise is why people call you a hater.

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...%20release.pdf

    There is the source...

    Amount of income from PC Subscriptions (WoW and Call of Duty Gold Membership) in Q1 2013 was 93M ...
    (Page 11 of the report) ... let's assume that 100% of that is WoW (and ignore CoD's contribution), that is 31M per month ... which at 15dollars a month of subscription would leave us with just a bit over 2M subscribers ... but that's not true ofcourse, since many people use other payment plans (3- or 6-monthly), so with an average of 10 dollars a month that leaves us a little over 3M subscribers.

    Ergo 3M WoW subscribers is the best estimate we can have for Blizzard. (5M WoW subscribers belonging to NetEase).
    Seriously what the fuck is your problem? You try to marginalize Blizzard's subscriber numbers and all you have managed to do is spotlight that Blizzard is profiting just fine even with subscriber losses despite your best efforts to obfuscate the truth. Give it up already.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:26 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    Yes, exactly!

    *Applause*

    I get so tired of people hearing saying Blizzard has 8,3 million subscribers when we know that 5M of those are chinese of which Blizzard doesn't earn much at all.
    So...wait. Which is it? When it comes to subscription loss Asian players seem to matter but when it comes to how many players Wow has then Asian players magically cease to exist? You can't have it both ways. Again crap like this is why people are called haters.

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Oh look, someone is being confused by GAAP accounting again.
    Oh look someone pretending Blizzard didn't make a profit simply because someone looked at the wrong figures.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:29 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post
    Oh, so now you're going to count Xbox, PS3 game subscriptions and royalties as well?

    L2read indeed:
    While the exact numbers involving the profit made from Wow aren't directly itemized it is quite easy to come up with some very realistic estimates based on numbers we do know. Let's stop pretending otherwise.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:31 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    You're looking at the wrong numbers... as above two people pointed out.

    Don't call other people liars because you're dumb ...
    According to the non GAAP numbers Blizzard still made a profit. So what is your point? Oh right. You don't have one.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:34 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by A Challenger! View Post
    No, not confused, just copiously mad and refusing to see outside the play safe bubble.



    Agreed. Doesn't mean WoW is a bad game or anything, but it does mean that 8.3 million is a PR number. You'll only ever see half, if that, during your tenure as a subscriber.
    It isn't a "PR" number. It is a verifiable number that Blizzard is obligated by federal law according to SEC regulations to be provided accurately to shareholders. If they say 8.3 million then by god it is 8.3 million and not one subscriber less. It doesn't matter where they live or how much they pay, paying accounts are paying accounts. Period. End of story. If you want to get into who pays more and whether East or West contributes more to Blizzard's profit that is all fine and good but seriously just stop pretending like people magically don't exist simply because they create an inconvenient reality for you.

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    Oh look someone pretending Blizzard didn't make a profit simply because someone looked at the wrong figures.
    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    According to the non GAAP numbers Blizzard still made a profit. So what is your point? Oh right. You don't have one.
    You need to calm down and read what is actually on the page in front of you neither of them are saying that Blizzard did not make a profit.

  11. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by Alenarien View Post
    I don't see why people deem subscription numbers as irrelevant; they're an important and useful gauge of how attractive both the content is, and Blizzard's measures of keeping people playing. With that in mind, MoP has been performing surprisingly poorly over all; it has had the usual, new expansion spike after the subscription losses seen in Cataclysm, yet now we're on the slippery slope once more.

    Truthfully i'm not sure why, but i'd put it down to two things;

    1) Blizzard thinking that dailies = exciting/engaging/legitimate content
    2) Patches having less content than things would seem

    This excludes external factors such as competition.
    I like how people refuse to see anything but dailies and pandas and refuse to consider that maybe just maybe just possibly the reason for subscriber loss in Asian markets isn't due to Blizzard dropping the ball in catering to Asians but the fact that market has been taken over by the free to play model. There is also the fact the mmo market world wide has shrunk. Yes there are less people playing Wow now. Guess what? There are less people playing mmos overall subscription based or not.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-17 at 05:41 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Realize that figure also includes revenue other than from subs, including value added services like realm transfer, character renaming, and race change. These are probably quite significant.
    Profit is profit. Sorry. If people weren't playing Wow they wouldn't pay for Wow value added services. Or are you going to claim people pay for these things and don't pay for Wow itself? Please just stop you are just making yourself look even more ignorant than usual.

  12. #92
    Bloodsail Admiral Iseeyou's Avatar
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    I bet on a 2M Loss.

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by Anarchor View Post


    You insult the entire forum here by assuming anyone would believe this...

    I don't think Blizzard would let 16 year olds become stockholders anyway.
    The only one being insulting here is you because no one is buying your bullshit. You and a few other rabid haters have been harassing and insulting and generally acting like jackasses because he has brought up actual facts and figures (required by law to be accurate). Get over it and get the fuck over yourselves already. Blizzard isn't going to cook the books just to pump up their numbers because I'm pretty damn sure they don't want to end up like Bernie Madoff. You remember him don't you? The guy that is one of the main causes for MANY changes in SEC regulations of publicly traded companies.

  14. #94
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    My basic view on this all is IDGAF, I will continue to play aslong as I enjoy the game thats all that matters to me. Ya the game is 8 years and eventually I will move on, but I do still enjoy the game & my guild is still very active and enjoys it aswell.

    I feel people use these threads like Xanzul said to bash the game & bring in the negative light as much as they can and there are alot of negatives things, but also keep in mind there are alot of possitive things aswell in-game. It like people who don't play anymore really care about the game, when they certaininly already show they don't, I don't get why they waste there time in here than.

    Honestly things like this make me wanna come to the MMO-Champ Forums less & less and only come for news honestly, All I see really is people who don't play anymore shout out the doom & gloom and they say if you don't like it than to bad cause your wrong & I'm always right kind of crap. Its sad

    Alot of people enjoy the game still. I personally think NA/EU together equals 5 - 6 Mill (2.5 or 3 each, just an honest estimate) Subs and that the huge bulk of Asia is already gone cause of the f2p market & NA/EU are now the main big part of subs, I honestly think the days of Asia being the dominate part in the sub base is gone, but thats just me. Thats just my idea or opinion on the matter if anyone wanted to know.
    Last edited by Arbs; 2013-05-17 at 10:04 PM.
    I don't always hunt things, But when I do, It's because they're things & I'm a Bear.


  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    I like how people refuse to see anything but dailies and pandas and refuse to consider that maybe just maybe just possibly the reason for subscriber loss in Asian markets isn't due to Blizzard dropping the ball in catering to Asians but the fact that market has been taken over by the free to play model. There is also the fact the mmo market world wide has shrunk. Yes there are less people playing Wow now. Guess what? There are less people playing mmos overall subscription based or not.
    From what I have read Blizzard's failure to hold on the Chinese market was because MOP does not represent their culture instead it is a Western interpretation of Chinese culture.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by Crashdummy View Post
    Dont fool yourself, they are worried, they just cant make it public.

    Al this interviews from friends working in fan sites they are doing to try to make people think ToT is so good and trying to create expectations on the Barrens escalation thing (which is just lame that this is what they are using to try to keep people on) shows that they are really worried.
    Here is something you people can't seem to quite comprehend: what you dislike isn't what other people dislike. You don't like ToT? Awesome. Good for you. Guess what? Not everyone is you. A lot of people have said very favorable things about this raid tier (along with constructive criticism on what could have been done better). What you people only seem interested in doing is crapping all over anything Blizzard does or says even resorting to flat out lying or spin doctoring if there isn't enough ammo to use to push your tin foil hat conspiracies. Blizzard can try to convince people content is good all they want but if people don't like it they will say so and have but make no mistake about it there are people who do like Mop who do like ToT who do like much of what has changed in this expansion and their feedback and opinions are just as valid and just as important as yours.

  17. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    From what I have read Blizzard's failure to hold on the Chinese market was because MOP does not represent their culture instead it is a Western interpretation of Chinese culture.
    This is certainly a part of it. Just look at something like Age of Wushu and compare to MoP art.

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    From what I have read Blizzard's failure to hold on the Chinese market was because MOP does not represent their culture instead it is a Western interpretation of Chinese culture.
    I would like to see a Chinese game based on American stereotypes. Everyone is fat, everyone is loud, everyone is stupid, everyone wears jeans and all decisions in the game are based on Jesus. I wonder how well that game would do in America.

    Infracted.
    Last edited by Zaelsino; 2013-05-17 at 10:02 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Aurust View Post
    I visualized playing it in my head and it was bad.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nathane View Post
    I mean you have all the trademarks of one childish, ignorant, irresponsible, retarded.

  19. #99
    Common sense is that it will drop further as the expansion goes on, and if everything goes well (Burning Legion), then we will see an increase again next expansion. How much, I do not know, but only time will tell.

  20. #100
    What I don't get is how some people seem to defend the "Losing subs, still much more than any other mmo, so its kay!". You think the developers of WoW sits at their offices working on new content thinks "it's kay, our goal isn't to maintain the subs, it's to lose as few as possible".

    Mind you, I'm no WoW-hater, I just quit the game in Cata when I felt it was the same old shit over again after playing through vanilla-WotLK, where I can say objectively I had good and memorable experiences I will appreciate till I die in all of the games, I even had some in Cata before I quit. But developers and a game company can't defend them losing subs with "WE STILL GOT MORE THAN YOU SHITTY GAMES!", they work hard to at least maintain them, and something is apparently not working for them. It's a combination of not being able to pull new players in and keeping them older ones for longer than they currently do. I'm not saying WoW is dying, because it's such an aweful term, however, is the game evolving as fast as it should?

    OT: I think with summer and Rift F2P in June and good releases in the autumn will lower the WoW-subs by at least the same as it did in the former quarter, again, it's a guesstimate.

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