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  1. #1

    What is your Server's Raid Guild Mortality Rate?

    NOTE:
    -This is a re-post of the first two posts of a thread on the WoW official forums in the Raid and Guild Leadership forums (a low traffic sub-forum) located here: http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/8796521581
    -Additionally, this thread is simply about seeing the overall average, not to track the ups and downs, nor to discuss the why or how come.
    -This thread is dealing currently with US guilds. If EU guilds are added, or other locations, please designate them as such with the appropriate abbreviation. I'll start an additional table(s) to track them as well.
    -This thread tracks productive raid guilds only, those who down a boss, and are thereby tracked by wowprogress.
    In a recent update to one of my sticky threads, approximately 45 guilds were removed from being listed on a server. This created an interest in ascertaining the mortality rate of guilds on said server, and then others.

    During Wrath of the Lich King, the player and raiding populace of World of Warcraft was at its climax with over 12 million subscriptions. The most heavily raided instance at that time was Ice Crown Citadel, as not all guilds proceeded into Ruby Sanctum. Therefor the listing of guilds actively raiding in ICC during that era presents a reliable data source for our gross active raiding guilds at the time. Equally so, Throne of Thunder has been out for 2 months 10 days, and is therefor also a reliable data source for what constitutes 'active raiding' guilds with a slight margin for error.

    The process is relatively simple. Here's how you do it.
    - Goto WoWprogress
    - View your server's cuttent standings for t15 content.
    - Hit "next >" until you come to the end of your list. Note the last guild entry and the Rank.
    - The rank of the last guild tells you the total number of guilds actively raiding this content on your server.

    - Next, click the "wotlk" hyperlink for previous tier progression.
    - Select "tier 10 (10)"
    - Repeat the above process to record the total number of guilds raiding ICC on your server previously.

    - Subtract the t15 number from the t10 total to derive the gross number of guilds lost since this time.
    - Cataclysm was released in December 2010, that's approx 30 months ago, or 2.5 years.
    - Divide your gross by 2.5, this will be your yearly guild mortality rate.
    - Divide that by 12, you get your monthly.
    - Divide the yearly by 52 you get your weekly.

    This will show you how many guilds a week, a month, and a year in total gross the server is effectively loosing, or gaining as the case may be for some servers. Please note that his is NOT an accurate reflection of guilds lost, which would be higher, but instead this is a guild total for a server mortality rate. This is to see, what servers are dying, and how fast - essential information for those considering server transfers obviously.

    Code:
    Example:
    Malygos -
    t15 = 29
    t10 = 131
    
    131-29 = 102 / 2.5 = 40.80 yr
    40.8 / 12 = 3.40 monthly 
    40.80 / 52 = 0.78 weekly.
    US: Malygos is losing 41 guilds a year, 3 a month, and just under 1 every week on average.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-30 at 07:00 PM ----------

    Total Guilds Per Server Mortality Rate Averages and Gross Loss: (ICC -> ToT)
    Code:
    Yearly - Monthly - Weekly - Server --------- Gross Loss
    77.20 -- 6.43 ---- 1.48 --- Warsong* ------- 195-002= 193
    76.40 -- 6.37 ---- 1.47 --- Argent Dawn ---- 226-035= 191
    67.20 -- 5.60 ---- 1.29 --- Feathermoon ---- 216-048= 168
    60.00 -- 5.00 ---- 1.15 --- Medivh --------- 180-030= 150
    60.00 -- 5.00 ---- 1.15 --- Proudmoore ----- 303-153= 150
    58.40 -- 4.86 ---- 1.12 --- Draenor -------- 187-041= 146
    57.60 -- 4.80 ---- 1.11 --- Alexstrasza ---- 185-041= 144
    55.20 -- 4.60 ---- 1.06 --- Caelestrasz ---- 187-049= 138
    54.40 -- 4.53 ---- 1.05 --- Lothar --------- 171-035= 136
    52.40 -- 4.37 ---- 1.01 --- Blackhand ------ 187-056= 131
    51.60 -- 4.30 ---- 0.99 --- Kirin Tor ------ 162-033= 129
    50.40 -- 4.20 ---- 0.97 --- Korgath -------- 239-113= 126
    50.00 -- 4.17 ---- 0.96 --- Muradin -------- 147-022= 125
    49.60 -- 4.13 ---- 0.95 --- Aggramar ------- 163-039= 124
    49.20 -- 4.10 ---- 0.95 --- Cenarion Cir --- 173-050= 123
    48.00 -- 4.00 ---- 0.92 --- Surumar -------- 171-051= 120
    47.60 -- 3.96 ---- 0.92 --- Drenden -------- 150-031= 119
    44.40 -- 3.70 ---- 0.85 --- Zangarmarsh ---- 141-030= 111
    43.20 -- 3.60 ---- 0.83 --- Grizzly Hills -- 132-024= 108
    42.40 -- 3.53 ---- 0.82 --- Garrosh -------- 140-034= 106
    40.80 -- 3.40 ---- 0.78 --- Malygos -------- 131-029= 102
    37.20 -- 3.10 ---- 0.72 --- Steamwheedle Ca- 120-027= 093
    36.80 -- 3.07 ---- 0.71 --- Tanaris -------- 124-032= 092
    34.80 -- 2.90 ---- 0.67 --- Hyjal ---------- 224-137= 087
    26.80 -- 2.23 ---- 0.52 --- Illidan** ------ 292-225= 067
    14.80 -- 1.23 ---- 0.28 --- Sargeras ------- 245-208= 037
    
    Growing Servers:
    32.80 -- 2.73 ---- 0.63 --- Stormrage ------ 268-350= +82
    .
    .
    * Warsong has a population of approx 554 players atm. It has 2 active raiding guilds currently (both Horde), down from 195 during ICC. It is ranked 245th out of 246 total US guilds in progression. This appears to be the least populated US server. Faction Ratio H:A is 1/0.06.

    ** Illidan has a population of approx 26,345 players atm. It has 225 active raiding guilds currently (all Horde), down from 292 during ICC. It is ranked 2nd out of 246 total US guilds in progression. This appears to be the most populated US server. Faction Ratio H:A is 1/0.00.

    The above list will continue to be updated as individuals post.

    ADDITIONAL NOTES:
    - All math and data will be checked before being added to the chart. Ensure yours is correct.
    - Many concerns about how the value of this data and using ICC 10man were addressed in the original thread and answered. If you have concerns about this formula, please read the original thread to see if your concerns have already been addressed (linked at the top of this post).
    Last edited by Deathpony; 2013-05-31 at 01:05 AM.

  2. #2
    Sigh. Alleria. 166 to 40. -126. I'm seeing why it's harder to recruit.

  3. #3
    Azjol-Nerub-US

    T10(10): 203
    T15: 34
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler
    I hate these casual Fridays ruining it for real Fridays.

  4. #4
    133 -> 20

    Well ok then. I knew there was a decline but damn, that's kind of staggering.


  5. #5
    Mal'Ganis 275-->227

  6. #6
    Want depressing numbers?
    EU-Kor'gall. Down from 133 to 9. And at least 3 of those 9 are dead/transfered already, and I think 2 other gave up, leaving just 4 left raiding.

  7. #7

  8. #8
    ToT normal is simply not comparable to ICC 10-man. If you take ICC 10-man into account, you'd basically have to take something like ToT LFR into account as well. The time periods and circumstances are very different. Numerous guilds died and were born over the lifetime of T10. The design of the 10-man version also encouraged groups into entering it even if they wouldn't have done so if it was comparable to ToT 10-man in design.

    It would be more reasonable to compare the T10 25-man numbers to the T15 numbers since the target audiences are far more comparable. This still doesn't factor in the lifetime difference and other details.

  9. #9
    FYI, Warsong died due to transfers when the Brasilian/Portuguese servers opened. I believe Warsong was limited to Gallywix and Tol Barad. Anyone left on Warsong now is not evidence of guild mortality, but the English speaking population that never transferred off.

    While what you state is not entirely erroneous, the conclusion that the guild died is wrong. Any of the Brazilian servers and unofficial Brazilian servers would have this problem.

  10. #10
    Not a fair comparison imo. This doesnt take into account the fact that ICC was around for a very long time and the 30% buff allowed for a ton more people to clear the content. Not that it entirely makes up for the staggering number of less guilds, but it is a huge factor.

    Also dont forget ICC was the "newest" raid for about 10 months. Longer its out, the more people that get a chance to do it. Not even going to get into how server transfers can impact the total number of different guilds.

    You also must consider the LFR factor as well. Tons people are content with just seeing the content and collecting some easy epics. That wasn't an option in WotLK days. You had to find a guild to raid if you wanted to see the content and progress your character at all. Now that you can see and experience the content in lfr, there is no incentive for the "I just want to see the content" crowd to clear normal raids.


    While the number of less guilds is a bit surprising, there are quite a few reasons for it.

  11. #11
    Arathor - US

    T(10) - 137
    T(15) - 33

    137 - 33 = 104 / 2.5 = 41.6 year
    41.6 / 12 = 3.46 month
    41.6 / 52 = 0.8 week

  12. #12
    This isn't about raid instance comparisons. It's about how many guilds are actively raiding then, and now. The end.

    For an instance comparison, use this thread: http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...ing-Difficulty
    Last edited by Deathpony; 2013-05-31 at 06:58 AM.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Deathpony View Post
    It's about how many guilds are actively raiding then, and now. The end.
    It is a comparison of how many guilds registered as raiding over the X period of time in comparison to the Y period of time. None of this shows the amount of active raiding guilds in a single point of time. It would already be much comparable if even the sample time periods were equal.

    Quote Originally Posted by Deathpony View Post
    Compare say DS 10 vs ToT 10.
    This is also a flawed comparison, with the improvement being the fact that Dragon Soul 10-man was not designed alike to ICC 10-man.

    Quote Originally Posted by Deathpony View Post
    See the massive drop since the end of cata for yourself.
    There has been a massive drop in the amount of raiding guilds, no denying.

    I may come across as pretty direct. This is interesting data and I merely think that your approach is wrong. ICC 10-man is a horrible choice for this comparison, especially without any limitations. I think a tier-by-tier comparison with the 10+25 statistics starting from T11 would be a much better way to look at this. It would not be perfect, but it would show the trends better and avoid many of the issues as long as the post-tier kills are not included. Separating the chart into 10, 25 and 10+25 would further help in seeing the trends with 10+25 being there just as an actual total since guilds doing both 10-man and 25-man would have their double representation removed.

  14. #14
    Keep in mind "Guild Perks" were introduced since Wotlk.

    Ever since that feature was added... it made it harder to start new guilds because nobody wants to join guilds without the perks. This resulted in a lot more guilds with multiple raid teams, which reduced the number of raiding guilds listed on WoWprogress because that site can't track multiple raid teams from the same guild (so it looks like there's less people raiding... but that's because the raiders are more concentrated into a smaller number of guilds... not necessarily because there's less raiders).

    To be clear: I'm not saying the number of raiders hasn't decreased... I'm just saying you have to account for the effect that Guild Perks has had on the community.
    <Sparkly Unicorns> on Proudmoore-US.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Keoren View Post
    ToT normal is simply not comparable to ICC 10-man. If you take ICC 10-man into account, you'd basically have to take something like ToT LFR into account as well. The time periods and circumstances are very different. Numerous guilds died and were born over the lifetime of T10. The design of the 10-man version also encouraged groups into entering it even if they wouldn't have done so if it was comparable to ToT 10-man in design.

    It would be more reasonable to compare the T10 25-man numbers to the T15 numbers since the target audiences are far more comparable. This still doesn't factor in the lifetime difference and other details.
    Not to mention the nature of how wowprogress track kills, and how it handles transfers/renames. For example: Apparently on my server only 243 guilds raided icc10, but 600~ raided DS. Could use those stats to say omg ds was best raid evah.

    A slightly better methodology would be to retrieve snapshots from 3 months into t11, t12, t14, and t15 progress and compare them. Wayback machine probably works for it \o/

  16. #16
    Yearly----Monthly-----Weekly----Server-----------Gross Loss
    53.2 -----4.43 -------1.02-------US-Azgalor-------154-021 = 133

  17. #17
    Yearly--Monthly-----Weekly-----------------Server--------------Gross Loss
    46 -----3.8 ---------0.88-------EU Steamwheedle Cartel-------123-031 = 92

  18. #18
    Herald of the Titans Injin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    2,980
    Zenedar Eu

    Was 175 in ICC, now 28.

    Gross loss 147
    http://secretgl.wordpress.com/

    Guild Blog for <Debonair> EU, Zenedar.

  19. #19
    Herald of the Titans Seriss's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
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    EU-Garrosh
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    2,828
    Zirkel des Cenarius - EU: Was 133 in ICC, now 85.

    48 loss.

  20. #20
    High Overlord calimmacil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
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    Holy Terra
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    Dragonblight EU

    t10(10) - 176
    t15 - 52
    loss - 124

    Damn, that's a lot of guilds.
    Also, i really hate you op, you made me check this and reminded me sooo many stuff from back then, so much activity, such a live server (it actually had a queue time to enter for a period), the memories of so many players that left now. :|

    ''The Emperor protects''
    "Say hello to Mr Yellow" - Flame-Trooper Aongus Brostin

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