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  1. #61
    This is the single most biased piece of work I've ever read on MMOC.

    No context, just grating and almost whining in pointing to things that cannot be taken at face value. I'm genuinely saddened that people will read through your post and think themselves more informed about the state of raiding since Wrath of the Lich King.

    In the interest of making sure this is a constructive post, at the absolute least take out your abysmal commentary and instead add two things:
    1) Graphs for middle tiers.
    2) Explanations on each individual tier and the exact state of the game at the time of progression.

    If the second point seems daunting, that's because it is. Challenging 5 man content in early Cataclysm and rather inaccessible raids early-on pulled an astronomical majority of players away from playing that facerolled through WotLK. Pugs that could be found at all times of the day were now scrapped in favor of guild perks. And in the final tier, LFR was added. No matter how you slice it, this did pull players away from doing normal modes, and still does. The people that cite scheduling issues have perfectly valid complaints, but even they are not immune to the simplicity that LFR offers. LFR offers laziness, where normal modes do not. Pandaria has had LFR throughout, WotLK and Cata did not.

    I think for this to be a truly valid discussion about Pandaria, one would also need the number of kills being represented at the LFR level. To represent WotLK and Cataclysm, the middle tiers are necessary. Ulduar was not a shining peak for the casual player, and neither was Firelands.

    Yogg 0-Light and Heroic LK were two of the most complex and difficult encounters ever created, and they stand in that same triumphant state even today, after two expansions of new bosses. Heroic Ragnaros and Heroic Lei Shen are the only two bosses to enter even the same wavelength. I would not say that the complexity of encounters has truly increased that much at the highest end. On a lower end level, is Jinrokh really much harder than Marrowgar was? Stone Guards to Northrend Beasts? If anything has changed, it would be the flavor of the encounters. BC was by and large a notorious culprit for having some of the most inaccessible raid content ever put out- but look at a boss like Mag'theridon. Incredibly straightforward, yet an average pug found him to be an incredibly difficult task. Kill adds, click the boxes when you are supposed to. Flavor.

    Lastly, I'd like to remind the community that this game was a success even when casual players were given nothing, as in the Burning Crusade. It is on the backs of the raiding community and Blizzard's love for stellar raid content that this game exists in such high standing today. Do not be so callous as to forget that.

  2. #62
    People drift off and disappear out of raid groups all the time. It's a fact of life. We've had the same rate of attrition in Mists that we had in Cata.

    But we haven't had the same rate of accrual. People on our server don't pug anything but world bosses and ancient content.

    I think one big barrier is that until recently it was quite annoying to level and gear up more than one alt. Once I'm done raiding with my main for the week I used to relax by pugging on the alt, but that hasn't been viable because I'm ashamed at how far behind the gear curve that toon is. And the normal mode cockblock bosses are gear checks. 80k+dps or gtfo. Sure I could prove I knew the mechanics with my main's achievement for the full clear, but being able to survive the mechanics well isn't going to help my pug group push past Elegon if I didn't have the gear to kill my orb in time.

    Last time I took part in a pug it was in MSV after I'd killed the Sha. I didn't need anything there but I wanted my raiding fix. Wiped endlessly on Stone Guard, because I didn't have a rapport with the other tank and we were constantly mistaunting and the undergeared healers couldn't keep up (when they weren't being killed by jasper chains). I still see a couple of people from that guild around the server, not many. Their GuildOX progress shows that they only ever killed the two bosses that I helped them to kill. And it's a shame, they had some goofoffs but they also had some good players and they were quite fun to hang out with.

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by Grogo View Post
    Well, I disagree 100% LFR has hurt the game on so many levels and its not really considered "raiding". LFR lets a lot more people get gear very easily, it is really not about seeing content. I call bullshit on that. That being said, Blizz cannot get rid of it now...its too late and the subs work ethic expectations has changed too much.

    I agree with you that LFR is also a huge drain on the normal raiding community
    You completely missed the point on why LFR is great for hardcore raiding. The art (models, environments, effects, etc) is the big resource sink in any raid. That's what takes the most time (and therefore money) to produce. It only makes sense to ration out your spending based on the number of players who will use those resources. LFR increases by at least an order of magnitude the number of people who will see the art in a raid. That means they can justify spending several times the amount of money on the art, which means bigger/better raids for everyone, including the Heroic raiders.

    This has nothing to do with whether you consider LFR "real raiding" or not (whatever the hell that means). It's the difference between budgeting for 100,000 people (Sunwell) and budgeting for 1-2 million (MoP LFR).

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Zellviren View Post
    The crash starts at tier 11, prior to the introduction of LFR, and continues into the Firelands.

    LFR is not to blame.


    This was a very quick first attempt to take a general look at how raiding numbers have moved on, and look for possible explanations as to why (against a plummeting subscriber base). It would be meaningless if most of the commentary didn't concentrate on Mists of Pandaria... Which it does.

    Funnily enough, I'm pretty robust about criticism for the sake of criticism.
    Why didn't you include T11 and T12 in your analysis? You can't compare instances that received 30% nerfs to T14, which even now only has a 10% nerf.

    T11 is equivalent to T14, as T12 is equivalent to T15.

  5. #65
    Where'd you pull these numbers?

    is it pulling 10/25? LFR? Heroic/Normal?

    US, EU, Asian?

    You should maybe preface your post to say where you're getting the numbers.

  6. #66
    I think it might be interesting to see not kill numbers (I'm assuming that's what your y axis is) but maybe something that relates to what % of the WoW population killed a certain boss? We know that subscription numbers have gone down - I'm not saying it accounts for the steep drop but it might be a better way to compare.

    Like previous posters have said, I'm sure there will be nerfs in some way for ToT to get those numbers up just like DS.

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by braeldiil View Post
    You completely missed the point on why LFR is great for hardcore raiding. The art (models, environments, effects, etc) is the big resource sink in any raid. That's what takes the most time (and therefore money) to produce. It only makes sense to ration out your spending based on the number of players who will use those resources. LFR increases by at least an order of magnitude the number of people who will see the art in a raid. That means they can justify spending several times the amount of money on the art, which means bigger/better raids for everyone, including the Heroic raiders.

    This has nothing to do with whether you consider LFR "real raiding" or not (whatever the hell that means). It's the difference between budgeting for 100,000 people (Sunwell) and budgeting for 1-2 million (MoP LFR).
    Well said. I am very grateful for LFR. It puts more budget into what I enjoy most, raiding.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-30 at 05:17 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by NeverStop View Post
    Why didn't you include T11 and T12 in your analysis? You can't compare instances that received 30% nerfs to T14, which even now only has a 10% nerf.

    T11 is equivalent to T14, as T12 is equivalent to T15.
    Yeah, T11 for sure MURDERED guilds and raiders. ICC had been so easy for so long that people couldn't even handle the 5 mans, much less Halfus or Atramedes or Chimeron.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Ziharkk View Post
    This is the single most biased piece of work I've ever read on MMOC.

    No context, just grating and almost whining in pointing to things that cannot be taken at face value. I'm genuinely saddened that people will read through your post and think themselves more informed about the state of raiding since Wrath of the Lich King.

    In the interest of making sure this is a constructive post, at the absolute least take out your abysmal commentary and instead add two things:
    1) Graphs for middle tiers.
    2) Explanations on each individual tier and the exact state of the game at the time of progression.

    If the second point seems daunting, that's because it is. Challenging 5 man content in early Cataclysm and rather inaccessible raids early-on pulled an astronomical majority of players away from playing that facerolled through WotLK. Pugs that could be found at all times of the day were now scrapped in favor of guild perks. And in the final tier, LFR was added. No matter how you slice it, this did pull players away from doing normal modes, and still does. The people that cite scheduling issues have perfectly valid complaints, but even they are not immune to the simplicity that LFR offers. LFR offers laziness, where normal modes do not. Pandaria has had LFR throughout, WotLK and Cata did not.

    I think for this to be a truly valid discussion about Pandaria, one would also need the number of kills being represented at the LFR level. To represent WotLK and Cataclysm, the middle tiers are necessary. Ulduar was not a shining peak for the casual player, and neither was Firelands.

    Yogg 0-Light and Heroic LK were two of the most complex and difficult encounters ever created, and they stand in that same triumphant state even today, after two expansions of new bosses. Heroic Ragnaros and Heroic Lei Shen are the only two bosses to enter even the same wavelength. I would not say that the complexity of encounters has truly increased that much at the highest end. On a lower end level, is Jinrokh really much harder than Marrowgar was? Stone Guards to Northrend Beasts? If anything has changed, it would be the flavor of the encounters. BC was by and large a notorious culprit for having some of the most inaccessible raid content ever put out- but look at a boss like Mag'theridon. Incredibly straightforward, yet an average pug found him to be an incredibly difficult task. Kill adds, click the boxes when you are supposed to. Flavor.

    Lastly, I'd like to remind the community that this game was a success even when casual players were given nothing, as in the Burning Crusade. It is on the backs of the raiding community and Blizzard's love for stellar raid content that this game exists in such high standing today. Do not be so callous as to forget that.
    I agree with your post. The OP obviously spent a lot of time on his/her post but ignoring things like the difficulty level of hardmodes in Wrath especially LK 25H and Ulduar really devalues the thread.

    It's also difficult to draw conclusions on normal mode raiding between tiers/expansions considering the many iterations raiding has undergone. 10 man content with its easier difficulty level and reduced ilvl in loot drops was replaced by 25 man and 10 man raiding becoming (roughly) similar in difficulty to one another, changing the difficulty tiers. During ICC, the difficulty scaling was 10M < 10HM (minus perhaps LK 10 HM) = 25M < 25 HM. In T11, the difficulty scale changed again from 10M = 25M < 10HM = 25HM, although 10 mans had tighter mechanics for a while until the balance between raid size was eventually worked out.

    Now we have LFR, and our raid difficulty tiers has changed again from LFR < 10M = 25M < 10HM = 25HM. LFR has essentially replaced what 10 man normal mode raiding used to be in Wrath, although some tiers were more difficult than others and at one point LFR actually became more difficult than 25M normal mode raiding, at the tail end of Dragon Soul with the nerf to normal mode/hm raids (since the nerf did not apply to LFR).

    Really if we want to get a full picture on the state of raiding we need to be looking at LFR numbers. Despite a lot of players' distate for LFR on the forums, LFR has taken the place of what 10 man normal content used to be, and to ignore that is to have an incomplete picture regarding raid participation.

  9. #69
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by undeadrogue View Post
    I think it might be interesting to see not kill numbers (I'm assuming that's what your y axis is) but maybe something that relates to what % of the WoW population killed a certain boss? We know that subscription numbers have gone down - I'm not saying it accounts for the steep drop but it might be a better way to compare.

    Like previous posters have said, I'm sure there will be nerfs in some way for ToT to get those numbers up just like DS.
    That is a hard comparison to make since Cata was very well known for alts, same with WotLK.

    LFR also screws this up as a lot of people are satisfied with LFR.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thirtyrock View Post
    The OP doesn't seem to realize that the reason more people did the last tier of the last 2 expansions is due to the increasing nerf. He seems to think that something has fundamentally changed in the system from then to now.
    The OP (hai!) realises that just fine.

    What I'm trying to say with the Icecrown and Dragon Soul models is that players aren't necessarily giving up prior to nerfs. If anything, they fundamentally prove that the gradual nerf system is largely successful because it shoots people over the smaller humps at a rate that doesn't trivialize what they're doing.

    The meat and drink of my post is to point out that players are flat out giving up on Mists of Pandaria raids. Not waiting for nerfs, not getting better, not mindlessly complaining, just giving up.

    This is inherently bad for the game, and I think we need to highlight:

    a) That it's happening.
    b) That catering all content to a tiny percentage at the top of the game is bad practice.

    Quote Originally Posted by statlerthegreat View Post
    There are other reasons I quit raiding outside of my weekly run throughs of LFR but the point is there are a bunch of reasons why raiding has dropped off. Its not simply less people have killed x bosses so its obviously harder. Thats not the case or at least thats not a complete answer.
    My apologies if that's how it reads, it's not meant to - I honestly don't think there's one single thing that's hitting subscribers, but when dealing with raids in a vacuum, I think we need to be clear on what's causing it so that it can be best addressed.

  11. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by Hextor View Post
    My guild basically called it quits over T14 due to lack of motivated players to continue progression. The game is bleeding ATM.
    And what caused the lack of motivation? In the case of my guild it was because Stone Guard was a big clusterfuck and a brick wall for us, when the guild had been able to do well in Dragon Soul (even before nerfs) and managed 3/8H before MoP hit (with myself personally being 5/8H, and having killed Heroic Morchok the 2nd week DS was out, albeit in a different guild that I had to leave due to RL issues- DS was released 11/28/2011, my Heroic: Morchok achievement was 12/08/11). You can point and say "DS was nerfed, so since you couldn't do it without the nerfs you had no business being there at all", which is the opinion that many here seem to express, but the fact remains Blizzard has twice had a carrot within reach for the majority of average guilds, and then bring it away later.

    Personally, I found T11 to be a bit too easy with the nerfs (aside from Nefarian, Al'akir and possibly Cho'gall), and a bit too unforgiving beforehand (although I killed everything but Nefarian and Al'akir before the nerfs; normal obviously) so I think the "ideal" difficulty would have been with around a 10% nerf. By the same token, Firelands was pretty bad pre-nerf, and a bit underwhelming post-nerf, so maybe another 10% or 15% nerf would have been sufficient to make it the ideal difficulty. Dragon Soul was tuned correctly on normal mode, and became a joke with the nerfs. T14 I find to be a good difficulty with the nerfs (10%?) and was too hard without them. Therefore I would think that ToT's difficulty on normal should be approximately 10-15% lower than it is right now, and it would still be challenging enough for the majority of guilds without being too challenging that it burns people out if they can't get any meaningful progression.
    Last edited by Nobleshield; 2013-05-30 at 05:32 PM.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kazgrel View Post
    With LFR: "Holy hell these normal modes are freaking retarded...eff this, I'll just do LFR"
    Without LFR: "Holy hell these normal modes are freaking retarded...think I'll go pvp, or do pet battles...meh eff that I'll just quit"

    Such thought process does not apply to everyone, obviously.
    No, but I've no doubt they applied to a lot of people.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-30 at 06:33 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Ziharkk View Post
    Lastly, I'd like to remind the community that this game was a success even when casual players were given nothing, as in the Burning Crusade. It is on the backs of the raiding community and Blizzard's love for stellar raid content that this game exists in such high standing today. Do not be so callous as to forget that.
    No, quite the opposite. But even during TBC (which you mention), the same attrition rate didn't happen.

    I'm starting to side with Osmeric inasmuch as this problem has always existed with raiders, but new ones came through to replace the ones that left.

  13. #73
    I'm not going to fact check the previous tier numbers, but ICC and Dragon Soul had huge sweeping nerfs to make them super easy near the end of the tiers. I forget when WoWprogress stops tracking, but I don't believe it's before the expansions were done.

    Also, tracking Throne, it's still going on? That and devs have already said normals (specifically 10, as 25 normals aren't really a thing) were higher up than they intended. what are you trying to really prove then, that the devs are right? They have these numbers and more at their disposal.


    Raiding that's difficult is harmful to the raiding community? Maybe to the "raiders" that do it for a few weeks and quit because of loot drama, no time, or some other trivial reason. Raiding was never easy until the end of ICC or end of Dragon Soul, and it hasn't suffered because of that.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celista View Post
    Really if we want to get a full picture on the state of raiding we need to be looking at LFR numbers. Despite a lot of players' distate for LFR on the forums, LFR has taken the place of what 10 man normal content used to be, and to ignore that is to have an incomplete picture regarding raid participation.
    I think that's fair commentary, but it ignores the reasons why many people raided in WotLK (page 2) and, therefore, get nothing from LFR.

  15. #75
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Zellviren View Post
    not mindlessly complaining

    a) That it's happening.
    b) That catering all content to a tiny percentage at the top of the game is bad practice..
    Is that not what you are doing?

    And MoP has been catering to the lower end of the raiding pool more than any expansion ever.

    LFR
    Coins
    Hc scenarios
    Easy access Valor
    Very easy world bosses that you can also use those extra coins on. 2 World bosses in each tier compared to the 1 that was previously available in BH/VoA. Granted you could do VoA in both 10 and 25 man in the same week, but the 10 loot was not much to cheer about.

    So this expansion has been catering the lower end of the raiding population more than ever, and normal mode raids are not harder than before.

    So if we have issues now, should you not draw the logical conclusion that this catering the lower end is the problem?

    Just my 2 cents.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by Ziharkk View Post
    This is the single most biased piece of work I've ever read on MMOC.

    No context, just grating and almost whining in pointing to things that cannot be taken at face value. I'm genuinely saddened that people will read through your post and think themselves more informed about the state of raiding since Wrath of the Lich King.

    In the interest of making sure this is a constructive post, at the absolute least take out your abysmal commentary and instead add two things:
    1) Graphs for middle tiers.
    2) Explanations on each individual tier and the exact state of the game at the time of progression.

    If the second point seems daunting, that's because it is. Challenging 5 man content in early Cataclysm and rather inaccessible raids early-on pulled an astronomical majority of players away from playing that facerolled through WotLK. Pugs that could be found at all times of the day were now scrapped in favor of guild perks. And in the final tier, LFR was added. No matter how you slice it, this did pull players away from doing normal modes, and still does. The people that cite scheduling issues have perfectly valid complaints, but even they are not immune to the simplicity that LFR offers. LFR offers laziness, where normal modes do not. Pandaria has had LFR throughout, WotLK and Cata did not.

    I think for this to be a truly valid discussion about Pandaria, one would also need the number of kills being represented at the LFR level. To represent WotLK and Cataclysm, the middle tiers are necessary. Ulduar was not a shining peak for the casual player, and neither was Firelands.

    Yogg 0-Light and Heroic LK were two of the most complex and difficult encounters ever created, and they stand in that same triumphant state even today, after two expansions of new bosses. Heroic Ragnaros and Heroic Lei Shen are the only two bosses to enter even the same wavelength. I would not say that the complexity of encounters has truly increased that much at the highest end. On a lower end level, is Jinrokh really much harder than Marrowgar was? Stone Guards to Northrend Beasts? If anything has changed, it would be the flavor of the encounters. BC was by and large a notorious culprit for having some of the most inaccessible raid content ever put out- but look at a boss like Mag'theridon. Incredibly straightforward, yet an average pug found him to be an incredibly difficult task. Kill adds, click the boxes when you are supposed to. Flavor.

    Lastly, I'd like to remind the community that this game was a success even when casual players were given nothing, as in the Burning Crusade. It is on the backs of the raiding community and Blizzard's love for stellar raid content that this game exists in such high standing today. Do not be so callous as to forget that.
    ^ this guy. I didn't even have to make a response, he sums it up.

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by Zellviren View Post
    No, but I've no doubt they applied to a lot of people.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-30 at 06:33 PM ----------


    No, quite the opposite. But even during TBC (which you mention), the same attrition rate didn't happen.

    I'm starting to side with Osmeric inasmuch as this problem has always existed with raiders, but new ones came through to replace the ones that left.
    No the attrition didn't happen in TBC, i don't doubt, but that was because so few people raided in the first place.

  18. #78
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Ziharkk View Post
    This is the single most biased piece of work I've ever read on MMOC.
    Theres a fair bit of com[petition for that title, i'd imagine.
    No context, just grating and almost whining in pointing to things that cannot be taken at face value. I'm genuinely saddened that people will read through your post and think themselves more informed about the state of raiding since Wrath of the Lich King.

    In the interest of making sure this is a constructive post, at the absolute least take out your abysmal commentary and instead add two things:
    1) Graphs for middle tiers.
    2) Explanations on each individual tier and the exact state of the game at the time of progression.

    If the second point seems daunting, that's because it is. Challenging 5 man content in early Cataclysm and rather inaccessible raids early-on pulled an astronomical majority of players away from playing that facerolled through WotLK. Pugs that could be found at all times of the day were now scrapped in favor of guild perks. And in the final tier, LFR was added. No matter how you slice it, this did pull players away from doing normal modes, and still does. The people that cite scheduling issues have perfectly valid complaints, but even they are not immune to the simplicity that LFR offers. LFR offers laziness, where normal modes do not. Pandaria has had LFR throughout, WotLK and Cata did not.
    Not seeing a point here, tbh.

    I think for this to be a truly valid discussion about Pandaria, one would also need the number of kills being represented at the LFR level. To represent WotLK and Cataclysm, the middle tiers are necessary. Ulduar was not a shining peak for the casual player, and neither was Firelands.
    Indeed, no. FL was such a guild destroying, sub losing mess that it was the reason they brought LFR forward. Ulduar was lovely, ofc with it's optional bosses.
    Yogg 0-Light and Heroic LK were two of the most complex and difficult encounters ever created, and they stand in that same triumphant state even today, after two expansions of new bosses. Heroic Ragnaros and Heroic Lei Shen are the only two bosses to enter even the same wavelength. I would not say that the complexity of encounters has truly increased that much at the highest end. On a lower end level, is Jinrokh really much harder than Marrowgar was? Stone Guards to Northrend Beasts? If anything has changed, it would be the flavor of the encounters. BC was by and large a notorious culprit for having some of the most inaccessible raid content ever put out- but look at a boss like Mag'theridon. Incredibly straightforward, yet an average pug found him to be an incredibly difficult task. Kill adds, click the boxes when you are supposed to. Flavor.
    heroic anything is pretty much irrelvent to this dicussion, you know that, right? There simply aren't enough people heroic raiding for them to matter.
    Lastly, I'd like to remind the community that this game was a success even when casual players were given nothing, as in the Burning Crusade. It is on the backs of the raiding community and Blizzard's love for stellar raid content that this game exists in such high standing today. Do not be so callous as to forget that.
    This sentence doesn't make any sense. How can the game have high standing for something hardly anyone knows about?

  19. #79
    Can i see the same graphs before the nerfs went out (mostly since it was the final content patch unlike what we're looking at now).
    Can i see the same graphs for Uld / T11 / Firelands (also before the nerfs), and just for the sake of discussion BT (or even TK/SSC).
    You're trying to compare apple to oranges. On one hand we have final patch raids which have been nerfed hard (to the point when at the end of the patch normal mode DS seemed to be easier than LFR) on another hand we content that is still sort of relevant and very relevant.

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by Zellviren View Post
    The OP (hai!) realises that just fine.

    What I'm trying to say with the Icecrown and Dragon Soul models is that players aren't necessarily giving up prior to nerfs. If anything, they fundamentally prove that the gradual nerf system is largely successful because it shoots people over the smaller humps at a rate that doesn't trivialize what they're doing.

    The meat and drink of my post is to point out that players are flat out giving up on Mists of Pandaria raids. Not waiting for nerfs, not getting better, not mindlessly complaining, just giving up.

    This is inherently bad for the game, and I think we need to highlight:

    a) That it's happening.
    b) That catering all content to a tiny percentage at the top of the game is bad practice.
    You don't have any means of showing whether players gave up prior to the nerfs, since your data doesn't show pre-nerf progress and post-nerf progress. Your data doesn't take into consideration the extreme length of the tiers. Your data does not take the large number of alts clearing those raids into consideration. Your data doesn't consider T7-9 or T11-12, which are much more comparable to today's tier. Your data doesn't consider 10/25 for ICC. Are you double counting some who cleared both. Your data does not consider LFR.

    Having an LFR at all is the exact opposite of catering to the tiny percentage at the top of the game.

    ---------- Post added 2013-05-30 at 05:50 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Injin View Post

    This sentence doesn't make any sense. How can the game have high standing for something hardly anyone knows about?
    They knew about it, they didn't do it. Key difference. It's like me with pet battles. I know about them, but don't participate in them.

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